Into July then, and the Player of the Year Race enters what has suddenly become a key stage. In past years the Race has gone into low gear over the Summer months, with only the occasional Grand Prix to keep things ticking over, while players return to homebase to attempt to secure a berth on the National squad for Worlds. This year, changes to the shape of the schedule mean that by the time we get to Autumn/Fall some seismic shifts are likely. This comes about for two reasons. First, the Summer Series means that winning a Grand Prix is now worth 10 Pro Points, and getting knocked out in the quarters is still good enough for 5. With extra cash also up for grabs, the temptation to take a punt and attend has been marginally strengthened amongst Pros who are sitting on the fence whether to try and make a run at POY or at least a high-level finish. Plus, a decent finish helps towards funding the next trip along the way. But the second reason is much more compelling. For the first time, National Championships now have Pro Points up for grabs. I see this as being significant for at least two groups of nations. Here’s a bunch of countries with one, two, or three Pro players currently on Tour:
Austria
Brazil
Denmark
Finland
Great Britain
Greece
Israel
Malaysia
Portugal
Russia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
There are of course any number of countries that have zero representatives, which surprisingly includes Italy, although Mario Pascoli has more than locked himself in for next year. Now the theory I’m about to advance doesn’t necessarily apply to all of these countries. Switzerland in particular looks like turning into a proper bloodbath in the battle for the Nationals team slots, as befits the Reigning Champions. But let’s look at some of the others.
Austria — Helmut Summersberger and Armin Birner, Both of these will believe they can win.
Brazil — It’s hard to see beyond Willy Edel, Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa, and Carlos Romao, although Francisco Braga put himself firmly in the mix with his win at Grand Prix: Buenos Aires last week.
Denmark — Rasmus Sibast looks like a significant favourite.
Finland — ditto Antti Malin.
Great Britain — with Craig Jones absent, and at least one of the Orsini-Jones brothers basically out of the game at the moment, Stuart Wright is a standout to go one better than last year.
Portugal — Andre Coimbra will probably only see someone called Carvalho (Paulo or Marcio) as major threats, given the absence of Tiago Chan, away studying.
Russia — Nicolay Potovin is their only current Pro, and has every chance of claiming victory.
Sweden — although Johan Sadeghpour is perhaps the best-known, Mattias Kettil stakes a strong claim.
Now in the past we’ve seen that being part of a National team can make a huge difference to a player when Worlds comes around. Summersberger made Level 6 on the back of the Austrian team making the final against Switzerland. This time around, the rewards are significant even before the players get to Memphis. 10 Points go to the winner, 8 to the runner-up, 3rd and 4th both get 6 points, and the losing quarter finalists all receive 4. Now I admit that getting a single point for 16th probably isn’t going to make all the difference to the Player of the Year Race (although of course it has come down to a single point as recently as 2005) but that double-digit boost could really shake things up. Which brings me to the second group of countries this is going to make a difference to:
France — 7 Pros
Germany — 6 Pros
Japan — 21 Pros
Netherlands — 7 Pros
U.S.A — 21 Pros
Holy carve-up, Batman! Of these five, German Nationals will probably end up the weakest, but both Andre Mueller and Jan Ruess have been second at Pro Tour level in the last 12 months, and Sebastian Thaler is an ex-Rookie of the Year (not that that seems to be doing Yuuya Watanabe much good this year). In the Netherlands, on top of household names like Frank Karsten, Ruud Warmenhoven, Rogier Maaten, and Jelger Wiegersma comes the addition of current star Robert van Medevoort and any amount of old stalwarts lurking in the wings, such as Bram Snepvangers and Grand Prix: Brussels winner Kamiel Cornelissen.
Although they have only seven Pros, I would suggest that French Nationals may be the hardest to win anywhere in the world this year. It’s a measure of their stellar Pro line-up that there’s a good bet I can simply list them as Wafo-Tapa, Ruel, Levy, Nassif, Tenenbaum, Ruel, and Fortier and you’ll instantly know the lot of them. Then you start adding in players with serious form who are no longer on Tour but might well put in an appearance for Nationals — think Pro Tour: Columbus winner Pierre Canali, Nicolas Labarre and Antoine Menard from the old guard, Selim Creiche, returning champ Guillaume Matignon, this is just a ferocious field vying for points and team places. Still, in a multi-discipline event it’s hard to discount Olivier Ruel from being in pole position at the business end of things.
That leaves the two juggernauts of world Magic, at least in terms of weight of numbers. With more than twenty Pros apiece, it goes without saying that both Japanese and U.S. Nationals are going to be extraordinarily tough to get points out of. Remember, only the top 16 get anything, and that means really talented Level 4s like Gerard Fabiano, David Irvine, Ben Lundquist or John Pelcak are going to need to be absolutely on their A game just to reach the ‘penultimate’ table. Once you start adding in assorted Hall of Famers, past Pro tour greats and a resurgence from some seriously old school talent like Jamie Parke, and you have yourselves a proper little Magic meltdown.
So what does all this Summer mayhem mean to the contenders? Let’s start out by taking a look at the table as it stands. Alongside their points tally I’ve offered a view of where their season might go. If I think they’re destined to slip down the table, they’ll get a Minus. If their pace is likely to remain the same, which would mean they’d end up with roughly double their current points, or arguably a little more, you’ll see a Neutral. And if I see them clambering their way up the leaderboard, they’ll get a Plus. Simple, innit?
1 — Shuuhei Nakamura — 36 — Neutral.
2 — Jon Finkel — 28 — Minus.
2 — Mario Pascoli — 28 — Minus.
4 — Jan Ruess — 27 — Minus.
5 — Guillaume Wafo-Tapa — 26 — Plus.
6 — Charles Gindy — 25 — Minus.
6 — Olivier Ruel — 25 — Plus.
8 — Raphael Levy — 24 — Neutral.
9 — Brandon Scheel — 22 — Minus.
10 — Martin Juza — 21 — Neutral.
11 — Jelger Wiegersma — 20 — Minus
11 — Marijn Lybaert — 20 — Neutral.
11 — Marcio Carvalho — 20 — Minus.
11 — Nico Bohny — 20 — Minus.
11 – Manuel Bucher — 20 — Neutral.
16 — Joel Calafell — 19 — Neutral.
16 — Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa — 19 — Plus.
18 — Yuuta Takahashi — 18 — Neutral.
18 — Robert van Medevoort — 18 — Plus.
18 — Paul Cheon — 18 — Plus.
18 — Yong Han Choo — 18 — Minus.
18 — Mateusz Kopec — 18 — Neutral.
23 — Tyler Mantey — 17 — Neutral.
24 — Gabriel Nassif — 16 — Plus.
24 — Helmut Summersberger — 16 — Plus.
24 — Ming Xu — 16 — Minus.
24 — Tomaharu Saitou — 16 — Plus.
28 — Makahito Mihara — 15 — Neutral.
29 — Jamie Parke — 14 — Plus.
29 — Mike Hron — 14 — Minus.
29 — Steve Sadin — 14 — Plus.
29 — Adam Yurchick — 14 — Plus.
29 — Taylor Webb — 14 — Neutral.
29 — Remi Fortier — 14 — Plus.
29 — Julio Bernabe — 14 — Neutral.
36 — Antoine Ruel — 13 — Neutral.
36 — Luis Scott-Vargas — 13 — Plus.
36 — Yoshitaka Nakano — 13 — Neutral.
36 — Christophe Gregoir — 13 — Plus.
36 — Nicolay Potovin — 13 — Plus.
36 — Matt Hansen — 13 — Neutral.
42 — Nicolai Herzog — 12 — Minus.
42 — Osamu Fujita — 12 — Neutral.
42 — Jan Doise — 12 — Neutral.
42 — Akira Asahara — 12 — Neutral.
42 — Kazuya Mitamura — 12 — Neutral.
42 — Grgur Petric Maretic — 12 — Plus.
42 — Rasmus Sibast — 12 — Neutral.
42 — Gaudenis Vidugiris — 12 — Plus.
50 — Jasan Elarar — 11 — Minus.
50 — Arnost Zidek — 11 — Neutral.
50 — Shuu Komuro — 11 — Plus.
50 — Gerard Fabiano — 11 — Neutral.
50 — Kenji Tsumura — 11 — Neutral.
50 — Masaya Kitayama — 11 — Neutral.
50 — Zack Hall — 11 — Neutral.
50 — Patrizio Golia — 11 — Plus.
58 — Michael Gurney — 10 — Neutral.
58 — Carlos Romao — 10 — Plus.
58 — Kamiel Cornelissen — 10 — Minus.
58 — Christopher Greene — 10 — Minus.
58 — Kenny Oberg — 10 — Minus.
58 — Jun’ya Iyanaga — 10 — Neutral.
58 — Raul Porojan — 10 — Plus.
58 — Yuuya Watanabe — 10 — Plus.
58 — Mark Conkle — 10 — Minus.
There is of course the remote possibility that someone who currently has less than 10 Pro Points will tear the Magic world apart over the remaining six months and end up winning the Player of the Year Race at a canter, but we have to stop somewhere, and when I said the possibility was remote I wasn’t kidding. We’re realistically talking about a National Champion who wins at least one of the remaining two Pro Tours (Berlin and Worlds in Memphis) plus at least one Grand Prix or multiple Top 8s whilst all his rivals forget to show up. Or her rivals for that matter. In short, it ain’t happening. So let’s take a look at who’s likely to make a move, who has probably shot their bolt via their 15 minutes of fame, and who will probably soldier on gamely to have another crack next year.
58 — Michael Gurney — 10 — Neutral.
58 — Carlos Romao — 10 — Plus.
58 — Kamiel Cornelissen — 10 — Minus.
58 — Christopher Greene — 10 — Minus.
58 — Kenny Oberg — 10 — Minus.
58 — Jun’ya Iyanaga — 10 — Neutral.
58 — Raul Porojan — 10 — Plus.
58 — Yuuya Watanabe — 10 — Plus.
58 — Mark Conkle — 10 — Minus.
Conkle performed well at Pro Tour: Kuala Lumpur. However, few people had heard of him before that, and few people have heard from him since, and it’s likely he’ll slip from the leaderboard. Watanabe hasn’t suddenly become rubbish since claiming the Rookie of the Year back in New York last December, so seems certain to rise. Likewise Raul Porojan, who reached a Grand Prix final last year before losing to Player of the Year Tomaharu Saitou. Giving Cornelissen a Minus may seem harsh, especially as he’s batting 1.000 this year, having won Grand Prix: Brussels, but that’s exactly the point — he’s not a regular player, and even if he were to win another GP or even two, he wouldn’t be figuring in the Race. It wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t see him again in 2008. My other Plus from this group is Carlos Romao, less for form and more for class, since he’s a former World Champion.
50 — Jasan Elarar — 11 — Minus.
50 — Arnost Zidek — 11 — Neutral.
50 — Shuu Komuro — 11 — Plus.
50 — Gerard Fabiano — 11 — Neutral.
50 — Kenji Tsumura — 11 — Neutral.
50 — Masaya Kitayama — 11 — Neutral.
50 — Zack Hall — 11 — Neutral.
50 — Patrizio Golia — 11 — Plus.
Some very good players here fail to get a Plus mark, which deserves some explanation. Zack Hall has plenty going for him, including a good sense of humor, but he’s been around enough to suggest that Level 4, which he’s on target for, is about his level currently. Kitayama managed 28th at Pro Tour: Kuala Lumpur, but 144th in Hollywood, whilst better than some, isn’t red-hot form. Fabiano won Grand Prix: Philadelphia, but however much not practicing worked for him on that occasion, that leaves him open to getting out-worked by those who do put in the hours. Arnost Zidek now has a cadre of Czech quality around him from which he can benefit, but he’s been on the cusp of the Pros for long enough to bet against him rocketing up the table, and as for Kenji, studies are really taking their toll, and with a poor Nationals performance we could even be entering the closing events of the season talking about him losing Pro status, unthinkable less than a year ago. In the Plus column, Shuu Komuro was the highest-placed Japanese finisher in Kuala Lumpur, and has real talent, whilst Patrizio Golia is part of the major resurgence in Italian Magic spearheaded by Mario Pascoli.
42 — Nicolai Herzog — 12 — Minus.
42 — Osamu Fujita — 12 — Neutral.
42 — Jan Doise — 12 — Neutral.
42 — Akira Asahara — 12 — Neutral.
42 — Kazuya Mitamura — 12 — Neutral.
42 — Grgur Petric Maretic — 12 — Plus.
42 — Rasmus Sibast — 12 — Neutral.
42 — Gaudenis Vidugiris — 12 — Plus.
The only Minus in this group, my reasoning behind Herzog has nothing to do with quality and everything to do with scheduling. The Hall of Famer targeted the Limited Pro Tour in Malaysia, performed brilliantly, demonstrated his considerable gifts (remember he won back-to-back Limited Pro Tours as part of his Hall of Fame CV) and has now gone away again. Maybe we’ll see him at Worlds. Maretic has the potential to move through the gears and become a genuine flagbearer for Croatia, while Gaudenis Vidugiris only found Jelger Wiegersma between him and Grand Prix triumph in Indianapolis. Coming from Madison Wisconsin he has an outstanding Magic pedigree that should see him build on this first headline result. I expect all the rest to attain/maintain Pro status, comfortably breaching the 20 point barrier.
36 — Antoine Ruel — 13 — Neutral.
36 — Luis Scott-Vargas — 13 — Plus.
36 — Yoshitaka Nakano — 13 — Neutral.
36 — Christophe Gregoir — 13 — Plus.
36 — Nicolay Potovin — 13 — Plus.
36 — Matt Hansen — 13 — Neutral.
Leaving Ruel in Neutral may surprise some, but unless he rediscovers his competitive fire he seems unlikely to reach the heights that saw him win Pro Tour: Los Angeles in 2005. On present form, both Matt Hansen of the U.S. and Japan’s Yoshitaka Nakano seem likely to get Pro status next year. To expect Luis Scott-Vargas to move up the field seems a given, especially given his habit of not just doing well but actually winning things (which is where the real points are to be had). Gregoir is comfortably the quietest of the four Belgian Pros (Fried Meulders, Marijn Lybaert, and Jan Doise being the others) and I’ll admit to being slightly taken aback to find him already on 13 points. However, he could go on and establish himself from this position. As for Potovin, I believe he is one of the most likely Pros to benefit from the Points being given away at Nationals this year. Just because we don’t know them doesn’t mean there aren’t other good players in Russia, but Potovin is actually very very good, and someone’s going to have to work very hard to beat him.
29 — Jamie Parke — 14 — Plus.
29 — Mike Hron — 14 — Minus.
29 — Steve Sadin — 14 — Plus.
29 — Adam Yurchick — 14 — Plus.
29 — Taylor Webb — 14 — Neutral.
29 — Remi Fortier — 14 — Plus.
29 — Julio Bernabe — 14 — Neutral.
Mike Hron is a terrific player, but if you look at the full standings on the mothership, you’ll notice that he no longer resides in Wisconsin, but rather the Netherlands Antilles. Yes, he’s yet another Pro gone to the sun in order to teach Craig Jones how to draft, and that means we’ll be seeing a lot less of him over the coming months. Julio Bernabe of Chile has had a terrific first half, with 4 Points coming from Grand Prix: Buenos Aires, but a further 10 courtesy of the two Pro Tours to date. That suggests no fluke, and means it’s highly likely there’ll be a Chilean Pro in 2009. Given that Jamie Parke has had a great few months, I was tempted to leave him at Neutral, leaving him in and around the 30 point mark come the end of the year. However, his 50th place at Pro Tour: Hollywood guaranteed him an invite to Berlin, and the apparent ease with which he picked apart the Grand Prix: Indianapolis field before falling in the semi- finals suggests there’s more to come from the Worlds Top 8 man (1999). Yurchick’s performance (9th) in Hollywood suggests to me the beginning rather than the end of something, and it’s almost inconceivable that one of the best prepared Pros in the game, Steve Sadin, won’t reap significantly better rewards in the second half of the year than he did in the first. In some ways, the only stumbling block might be Steve himself, if he loses faith in his diligent practice regime in the face of some irritatingly inexplicable results. As for Fortier, his runner-up in Grand Prix: Birmingham to my mind firmly establishes him as a genuine contender, rather than a one-hit wonder (Pro Tour: Valencia), and the only cloud for him may be that devastatingly high-powered French Nationals.
28 — Makahito Mihara — 15 — Neutral.
What a performer Mihara is. Since taking Dragonstorm to Worlds victory in 2006, I wonder if anyone can boast a more efficient record than him? Pro Tour: Geneva — 16th ; Pro Tour: Valencia — 8th ; Worlds New York — 18th ; Pro Tour: Kuala Lumpur — 152nd ; Pro Tour: Hollywood — 7th. If he wasn’t so busy and therefore not attending every Grand Prix that moves, you’d have to think he’d be easily in the top five in the world.
24 — Gabriel Nassif — 16 — Plus.
24 — Helmut Summersberger — 16 — Plus.
24 — Ming Xu — 16 — Minus.
24 — Tomaharu Saitou — 16 — Plus.
I’m trying not to be unfair to Ming Xu, who wrote a slice of Magic history by becoming the first mainland Chinese player to make a Pro Tour Top 8 in Kuala Lumpur. The simple fact is that there’s every chance we won’t see him again on Tour this year, with events in Europe and America ahead. When it comes to a conversation with U.S. Immigration, ‘hi I’m a 19 year old Communist Chinese single male who doesn’t own a home or have a job because I’m a student and I’ve come to stay at no fixed address because I don’t know whose floor I’ll be sleeping on while I play cards for a week’ tends to raise more suspicions than it allays. Saitou has had a pretty miserable first half, and realistically giving fellow Japanese traveller Shuuhei Nakamura a twenty point lead is far too much to pull back. Even so, expect the reigning Player of the Year to radically improve his position. Summersberger seems likely to be grateful for Nationals points, with a relatively weak list of challengers. Nassif should at least finish strong, provided he, Mark Herberholz, and Patrick Chapin can perform more like Worlds 2007 and less like Hollywood 2008.
23 — Tyler Mantey — 17 — Neutral.
Sometimes you learn a lot more about people when they lose than when they win, Marijn Lybaert losing his quarter-final in Hollywood being a prime case in point. Similarly, Mantey made his second Grand Prix final table, before losing in Indianapolis to Jelger Wiegersma, in part due to a truly hideous run of mulligans. Like Lybaert, Mantey continued to fight, long after Mistmeadow Witch had realistically sealed his doom. His second Top 8 shouldn’t be his last, and he’s well on course for Level 5/6.
18 — Yuuta Takahashi — 18 — Neutral.
18 — Robert van Medevoort — 18 — Plus.
18 — Paul Cheon — 18 — Plus.
18 — Yong Han Choo — 18 — Minus.
18 — Mateusz Kopec — 18 — Neutral.
Perhaps I’m being unkind to Choo, but I don’t see the Reveillark man from Hollywood getting into the 35-40 points range come December. Mateusz Kopec from Poland has more than built steadily on his Grand Prix: Vienna victory, and looks likely to have a decent Pro level from which to kick on next year. Also a Grand Prix winner in 2008, Paul Cheon would be high on my list of possible winners in Chicago at the start of next month for U.S. Nationals, and Robert van Medevoort is a man who started strong with runner-up behind Nakamura at Grand Prix: Stuttgart, and is definitely a man on the rise.
16 — Joel Calafell — 19 — Neutral.
16 — Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa — 19 — Plus.
Calafell obviously secured the bulk of his points at Pro Tour: Kuala Lumpur, where he found himself in one of the hottest Top 8s ever assembled. Still, he’s quietly generated some bonus points, and with Pro status already assured could find himself a worthy Level 6. The Brazilian also found himself very much in the spotlight during his final table appearance this year, against Shuuhei Nakamura in the quarter finals of Pro Tour: Hollywood. The speed of those five duels, the skill, the excitement, and above all the mutual respect shown in those five duels did the game nothing but good, and as a continued global traveller, there’s reason to be optimistic that Paulo can once again achieve Level 7, or even make a run at Player of the Year.
11 — Jelger Wiegersma — 20 — Minus.
11 — Marijn Lybaert — 20 — Neutral.
11 — Marcio Carvalho — 20 — Minus.
11 — Nico Bohny — 20 — Minus.
11 – Manuel Bucher — 20 — Neutral.
It obviously gets harder as we near the top of the standings to justify a Plus mark, suggesting that the player will do even better than their already-successful first six months. In that sense, the Neutral marks for Lybaert and Bucher represent continued and marked success. Bucher has well and truly broken into the deckbuilding big time with his Quick n’ Toast effort for Hollywood, and continues to demonstrate the success of the Swiss. The same is true of Bohny, but whereas I can foresee a string of high finishes for Bucher, it’s more than likely that Hollywood will turn out to be the one Top 8 Pro Tour finish of the season for the Grand Prix: Torino winner from 2006. I feel similarly about Marcio Carvalho, who edged out Nicolai Herzog in Kuala Lumpur before being despatched by Jon Finkel. Wiegersma was the hot tip of many in the know to win Grand Prix: Indianapolis and he duly obliged, hence his high current position. Like fellow Dutchie Kamiel Cornelissen, he won’t necessarily be seen at every event that moves, and that means he may be overtaken by a few who really really want the points more than he does.
10 — Martin Juza — 21 — Neutral.
Very level-headed, there’s plenty of grounds for optimism about Juza. Although I don’t see him winning the whole thing, at his current pace he would make Level 7, which would be a fabulous performance and put him well inside the world’s top 20.
9 — Brandon Scheel — 22 — Minus.
Astonishing consistency deserves laudable mention, and there’s no doubt that 11th place finishes in his last three Premier events — two Pro Tours in Kulala Lumpur and Hollywood and a Grand Prix in Indianapolis — are worthy of note. Unfortunately for Scheel, the scoring system doesn’t always reward consistency, as witnessed by the fact that he still finds himself three points adrift of Charles Gindy, who gobbled up the full 25 for winning Hollywood. To be that close that often indicates that Scheel is very good at Magic, but also that right now he hasn’t found a way to get over the hump, and bear in mind that 11th probably leaves you four wins shy of lifting the trophy. That’s another half of a Pro Tour day to go undefeated, and that makes Scheel a likely slider.
8 — Raphael Levy — 24 — Neutral.
From one ultra-consistent performer over recent months to the ultra-consistent performer over recent decades! Yes, Levy is on course yet again for a place inside the world’s Top 10, and it’s hard to see anything other than some unexpected non-Magic life change to derail his inexorable path to Level 7 or 8 once again.
6 — Charles Gindy — 25 — Minus.
6 — Olivier Ruel — 25 — Plus.
Yes, Gindy has thoroughly worthwhile Limited credentials. Yes, he won a Constructed Pro Tour. But another 25 points through the second half of the year would need a second PT top 8 at the very least, and like Nico Bohny, Hollywood feels to me like the most probable solo final table for this deeply modest man who loved every second of his run to glory. Ruel meanwhile is just a Magic machine. His latest 6th place in Grand Prix: Buenos Aires was something like his 23rd final table, and we’re almost at the point where if an event is outside Europe, you begin to wonder who the other seven are going to be when it gets to the knockout stages. Although he might have to make good on the absence of a Pro Tour victory if he is to overhaul Shuuhei Nakamura, anyone who watches Magic seriously will tell you he’s one of the best players not to have a PT title to his name, and I believe that could change in Berlin or Memphis.
5 — Guillaume Wafo-Tapa — 26 — Plus.
The only member of the current top 5 I’ve given a Plus to, that implies that Wafo-Tapa would not only reach Level 8 again, but will do so with some time to spare, as he did last year. His 59 points were good enough for 3rd place, but he gave away points at Grand Prix: Krakow to Olivier Ruel, and didn’t travel to the last couple of Grand Prix. Now he may continue to be ambivalent about the Player of the Year Race, but if he fails to lock up Level 8 with its assorted exciting benefits, you can expect him to travel extensively. Very much a live contender, he’s could be the biggest threat to the continued Japanese dominance of Player of the Year.
4 — Jan Ruess — 27 — Minus.
The runner-up behind Charles Gindy in Pro Tour: Hollywood, Ruess had, if possible, even more fun than the winner, at least up until the final. Ruess is a lot more fun than his quiet and apparently imperturbable demeanour let on, and one of my abiding memories of that particular Pro Tour is finding myself in Heathrow airport the following Tuesday to find Ruess, waiting for his connecting flight back to Germany, his trophy sat on the floor beside him. Another 27 points would make him Level 8 next time around, and I’d be surprised if even he thought that was where he was in the Magic hierarchy, hence the Minus.
2 — Jon Finkel — 28 — Minus.
2 — Mario Pascoli — 28 — Minus.
The two who played out the final in Kuala Lumpur are unlikely to fight it out for the Player of the Year for different reasons. Pascoli has now won Italian Nationals twice, and has a large and growing group of fellow Italians who are starting to make waves on Tour. Even so, Level 6 or maybe Level 7 seems more likely than the highest honors. Maybe next year. Finkel on the other hand is just not interested, having achieved everything in the game. He found a deck he enjoyed for Hollywood, where he narrowly missed out on Day Two, but he likely won’t be in Berlin, and even a win at Worlds seems highly unlikely to take him all the way to the summit he knows so well.
1 — Shuuhei Nakamura — 36 — Neutral.
Well, maybe Neutral is pushing it just a little, as 72 points would be three more than the mighty Saitou generated for the title last time around. Nonetheless, 62 was good enough for second in 2007, and Shuuhei managed 12th spot despite a wretched run of form through much of last year. The first leader in this year’s competition via his winning Grand Prix: Stuttgart, Shuuhei has resumed a career that now boasts five Pro Tour Top 8s in pretty quick time, and if he wasn’t around at the same time as the more effusive, more recognisable and more ‘rockstar’ Kenji Tsumura, he would likely be the big name in Japanese Magic.
Conclusion
There are 66 players who enter July with 10 points or more. Any of them who can continue on their current pace will be part of the Pro roster in 2009. I believe less than 10 of these will fail to cross the 20 point barrier, while the top 25 or so already have that invite for next year assured. When it comes to Player of the Year, I look back with astonishment to find we began Worlds in New York with no fewer than seven players in with a theoretical chance of overall victory. Technically any of these on the list could win, and, as previously indicated, the million-to-one shot still exists for plenty more. But, all things taken into consideration, I believe we are down to exactly that number that confronted us at Worlds last year :
1 — Shuuhei Nakamura — 36 — Neutral.
5 — Guillaume Wafo-Tapa — 26 — Plus.
6 — Olivier Ruel — 25 — Plus.
8 — Raphael Levy — 24 — Neutral.
16 — Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa — 19 — Plus.
18 — Robert van Medevoort — 18 — Plus.
18 — Paul Cheon — 18 — Plus.
Cheon and van Medevoort probably need the boost of a win in their respective Nationals, something both have done before and both could do again. The Brazilian needs to turn consistent performances into outright victories, and could do so. Of the three Frenchmen, all of whom were in the hunt last year, Levy seems the least likely to take the title, since he’s had so many goes at finally winning a Pro Tour, and that’s something he would probably need to achieve to lift the trophy. You can certainly argue that Wafo-Tapa is the best right now, but his indifference to the Race coupled with Ruel’s bursting at the seams passport makes Olivier the most likely challenger to Nakamura. And that leaves the current leader, Shuuhei Nakamura. That 10 point lead over his nearest rivals is by no means insurmountable, especially if one of the three Frenchmen can claim their home championship, but right now even I can work out that he’s firmly in the box seat. And so, as we embark on a run of Nationals and Summer Series GPs, I tentatively offer you my best guess at the 1-2-3 when all is said and done:
1st Shuuhei Nakamura
2nd Olivier Ruel
3rd Robert van Medevoort
And now it’s over to you. Give me your top three in order please, and then in six months time you’ll doubtless be able to prove your Magic analysis skills were infinitely better than mine!
Until next time, as ever, thanks for reading.
R.