As I write this from Rotterdam, where the first European Grand Prix of the season is being held this weekend, we sit just a week away from the opening set-piece battle in the Player of the Year Race. Magic constantly reinvents itself, and the same is true at the Pro level, where the shape and nature of the Tour continues to evolve. This year sees a significant change to the way each event is decided, with a shift towards a Nationals-style model of mixed Formats. In Kyoto, that means we open with four rounds of Standard followed by three rounds of Draft, and then the reverse on Day 2. How many players make Day 2? All of them. The cut to Day 2 is a thing of the past, allowing all players to, you know, play. And that has to be a good thing. With fourteen rounds across the two days, competition for Top 8 slots is likely to be tighter than ever, and there’s already much speculation as to what record will make Sunday play.
With this in mind, our search for a winner, and indeed a Player of the Year, rests squarely on finding a player who is good at all disciplines of the game. No longer will Limited specialists be able to ignore the Metagame. No longer will Constructed experts be able to rely on making a killing with the perfect Sideboard plan. Every facet of Magic skill will now be tested, and in a Format where every loss is going to be critical. Let’s meet some of the characters who could make an impact next week.
Akira Asahara had a terrific Worlds, but lost his first Faeries mirror match out of six attempts when it really mattered in the Quarter Finals against eventual Champion Antti Malin. BDM knows more about Magic than most, and rates him very highly.
Sammy Batarseh isn’t someone I know much about, but he’s ranked 32nd in the World in Limited, so the addition of Draft to every Pro Tour should suit.
Sam Black was known as the King of Sides, because once he was out of contention in any given Pro Tour, he became virtually unbeatable in Side Events. Most memorably, he was the victor in the Win a Car tournament at Worlds 2006. Now he’s added Team World Champion to the resume, but still struggles for respect from some U.S. colleagues.
Richard Bland is a UK player you won’t know, but has worked hard at his game, and has quietly done well at GP and PT level in order to qualify here on Total rating.
Marco Blume is the first of our Hall of Famers, but it’s unlikely we’ll see him in action here.
It won’t surprise you to learn that Manuel Bucher is high on my list of potential Player of the Year candidates. He plays a ton of Magic, approaches it very professionally, has a contacts list that many would kill for, and a prep squad for Kyoto that includes living and testing with Patrick Chapin. To my mind, this is the year for Manuel to make the next jump forward, from GP Top 8 player and reputable deckbuilder, to genuine PT star.
I do enjoy looking at the Invite list for each PT, because there are so many different ways you can get your invite. Take Marcio Carvalho for instance.. First up, there’s Top 50 at Worlds. Then he was also in the Top 50 at Pro Tour: Berlin. He made the Top 16 at Grand Prix: Atlanta, and the Top 16 of Grand Prix: Taipei. In the Top 100 Limited category he’s 10th in the world, and in the Total rating he’s 17th. And, of course, he’s Pro Club Level 6+. By my reckoning, that means he qualified for Kyoto in seven different ways. He didn’t win a PTQ though — they don’t let him play in those. [Whether Marcio’s departure from GP: Rotterdam affects his attendance remains to be seen — Craig.]
Like his good friend Manuel Bucher, this year is a major chance for Patrick Chapin to shine. On the plus side, Constructed features in every PT this year. On the flipside, Limited’s there too, but that didn’t stop him at Worlds 2007 from getting all the way to the Final. The general consensus about Standard right now is that there isn’t some amazing weird deck waiting in the wings, but with Block Constructed coming in Honolulu, a Chapin Special would be no surprise.
Justin Cheung did Australia proud at Worlds. He was overshadowed by Rookie of the Year Aaron Nicastri, but Cheung matched him to a perfect 6-0 record on Day 1, and strikes me as a genuine contender for a Sunday slot in his own right in the not-too-distant future.
Ognjen Cividini — The Man Who Makes Opponents Cry (The Onion, geddit?) came to prominence at Worlds, and this Croatian adds to the growing reputation of a group of players from that region of Europe.
It’s tough to get much publicity when you’re a Tier 2 French Pro, because of all the Tier 1 French Pros, but Selim Creiche, a Grand Prix regular, went about his business to win a PTQ, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he did well here.
Paulo Vitor Damo Da Rosa of Brazil is fast becoming a Magic human highlight reel. He plays at breakneck pace (although he never seems to stumble), and so blatantly cares about what he does, you can’t fail to wish him well. Not that he needs it. Top 8s are starting to flow for the man who is still very much in his Magic prime at only 21. All things being equal, it’s a solid bet that he will turn up here ready to play Faeries, as they’ve served him well both at Pro Tour: Hollywood and then again at Worlds. Nothing in the Metagame currently visible suggests a need to divert from this successful strategy.
Luiz Guilherme de Michieli competes handily with his Brazilian compatriot for longest name on the Pro Tour, and he’s starting to make a name for himself, largely on the back of his Semi-final appearance at Worlds last year. Could he be the next full-time Pro to come out of Brazil? I think he could.
Jan Doise of Belgium is ultra-consistent on the Grand Prix circuit, making Day 2 after Day 2 after Day 2. That he made the leap to Top 8 on the Pro Tour in Berlin was surprising to some, since words like ‘solid’ rather than ‘spectacular’ tend to spring to mind. There’s no doubt that Doise and his team had Elves worked out perfectly, and I believe it was Doise who first arrived at the Orzhov Pontiff plan that changed certain matches so critically. Now he needs to kick on in 2009 to establish himself as the premier Belgian player, at a time when there are several potential holders of that title.
A quick word about a rival publication next. I’d be surprised to see Rob Dougherty in Kyoto, since he’s probably up to the eyeballs with the launch of Your Move Games new offering in the TCG market, ‘Epic.’ If you have eyes, you’ve probably seen the adverts here on the site. Rob is one of the true gentlemen of the Pro Tour, so if you have some room for bonus card action in your life, why not go download the free decks and check it out?
When it comes to resurrecting careers, Willy Edel could teach us a thing or two. White hot in 2005 and 2006, Willy slipped away from high-level Magic, and was barely seen for 18 months. Then, back he comes, apparently rejuvenated, and apparently having lost none of his flair for the game. He was part of the Top 4 National Team at Worlds, and now stands ready to assault the top tables once again.
America clearly has a bunch of young guns ready to mix it with the old guard, and that means it’s tough to keep track of everyone. Take Chris Fennell, for instance. While I wasn’t looking, he amassed a rating that sees him 4th in Limited in the world, and the holder of an invite here courtesy of a PTQ victory. When I know more, you’ll know more.
Speaking of the Top 10 in Limited, how about the Top 1? Any ideas? Your guess is as good as mine whether he’ll use his Hall of Fame invite to attend, but the last time he turned up for an Asia-Pacific Pro Tour, he won in Kuala Lumpur. Yes, Jon Finkel is officially the number one player in the Limited world. Some statistics amaze. This one doesn’t.
From the distant shores of Europe, it’s easy to lose track of some of Japan’s finest. So it’s heads up time, as Osamu Fujita, a man with 8 Grand Prix Top 8s and a runner-up spot from Pro Tour: Amsterdam in 2004, has won a PTQ, and presumably will find a way to get there. Of all the PTQ winners, he strikes me as the second biggest threat to do real damage at the sharp end.
Time for Charles Gindy to make another move. He was competitive in Berlin last Fall, but found the absence of winning to be less than optimal. Will he slip back into the pack, or can he make a run towards another title? I suspect the move to multi-Format has helped him, as it has all those players who devote time and effort on a weekly basis.
Christophe Gregoir may be the quietest of the Belgian Pro contingent, but he just might turn out to be the best of a very good bunch.
On the back of a Worlds Top 8 appearance, Tsuyoshi Ikeda stands in 7th on Total ranking, and with Blightning beatdown still very much a Tier One offering, we can expect good things again.
One place above Ikeda in the Total rankings stands David Irvine, who has put up consistent finishes whilst remaining resolutely out of the public eye, a lone Grand Prix Top 8 from 2007 apart. LSV is living proof that nice guys do sometimes finish first, but I’ve a nagging doubt that DI might not want it quite enough to get over the finish line past those who bleed Magic.
Another PTQ winner from Japan is Yun’ya Iyanaga, and that adds another talent to the starting lineup.
I used to think Michael Jacob had a lot to prove, since he was the ‘unknown’ member of the US Team a couple of years back. Now he’s a National Champion, a Team World Champion, and you’d have to think that someone who so clearly thrives in a mixed Format environment is getting ready to game.
Rasmus Sibast has been the flagbearer for Denmark for a while, but there are signs of a changing of the guard. Thomas Enevoldsen did well in Hollywood last year, and now here’s David Jensen, who came in the Top 50 at Worlds, and currently stands 4th in the world on Total ranking.
From the Czech Republic, Martin Juza is my dark-horse pick for Player of the Year. His finishes on the Pro Tour last year were the most consistent of anyone. Anyone. That counts for a lot. Then you add in his willingness to travel far afield on the Grand Prix circuit this year, and you add up to a second authentic European challenger to the other Big Three of Saitou, Nakamura and Ruel.
Let’s keep adding to the ‘dangerous PTQ winners’ list, with Tomohiro Kaji, a man that Shuuhei has taken into battle in Team events, which should tell you something.
Ranked 5th in Total, Frank Karsten has to my mind the biggest edge over his opponents of anyone in world Magic. That’s not to say that he’s necessarily more talented than the rest of the Tour. It’s just that his dedication to Process (by which I mean the systems he puts in place for testing, deck analysis, Metagame analysis and so forth) are second to none. Karsten is the closest thing Magic has to Sabermetrics, the astonishing statistical analysis of Pro baseball. If Magic continues to grow and thrive as a sport, the pioneering work that Karsten has done (Deckopedia, the ‘average faeries’ from Worlds, testing spreadsheets, a true testing regime etc) will I think become the blueprint for a true Professional to follow. I’m pretty certain that the answer to ‘how can I be better at Magic?’ is ‘spend a week living and testing with Frank Karsten.’
The big surprise at Worlds was the rise of Estonian National Champion Hannes Kerem. This year, we see whether that backdoor entry to the Pro ranks pays dividends.
Cynic Kim got here by winning a PTQ, and that means his final opponent that day in Malaysia, Zac Hill, won’t be joining us. I’m sure Kim is a good guy, but I’ve certainly lost prime interview material, and Zac will be missed by many this week.
Shuu Komuro was the top Japanese finisher in Pro Tour: Kuala Lumpur twelve months ago, admittedly in an overall disappointing performance by the local squad.
Brian Kowal is one of the more influential figures in American Magic, but hasn’t been personally rewarded at the Pro level in recent times. Having won a PTQ, it’s my first chance to see him, and not just his deck, in action.
Shingou Kurihara had a big year in 2007, where he got as far as the penultimate day of Worlds in New York still in with a chance of Player of the Year. 2008 was much quieter, with minimal travel, and uninspiring results. I expect a return to form this year, and that puts him straight back into contention.
I met Tim Landale, the winner of Grand Prix: Kansas City, at Worlds in Memphis, where he wasn’t having a successful time. Nonetheless, a repeat of GP success is on the cards again this year. Pro Tour? Not so sure.
Raphael Levy is 32nd in Total ranking, and it’s hard to think of someone who so perfectly fits that position. He’s always in contention, hardly ever has an off-day, never a meltdown, beats most people time after time, and then every so often beats everybody. Just not at the Pro Tour, yet. He’s had 50 or so goes at it, will it ever happen?
Statistically, with 350 players at a Pro Tour, one in 47 will make the Top 8. Marijn Lybaert of Belgium has two Top 8s in two years, and has been hovering on the edge of several more. The only question mark against him lies with real-world issues, like a career, and we may see him testing less, and playing less. I still expect a third successive year of Sunday action somewhere along the line.
So, who’d have thought it, Antti Malin, journeyman Pro, World Champion 2008. Although he’s clearly competitive, I’m sure the affable Finn would be the first to say that he hadn’t entertained too many thoughts of actually winning Worlds in Memphis. A positive record? For sure. A decent money finish? Targeted. But expectations of total victory? For the second year running we have a World Champion that few would have predicted. Unlike the largely-absent Uri Peleg (who nevertheless defended his title with honor), Malin is a World Champion we can expect to be visible at major events, and that has to be good for the game.
Seth Manfield had a decent Worlds, and looks to be one of the form horses amongst the American contingent. But tell me please, does a town called Chevy Chase really exist, or is someone having a laugh?
I’ve already mentioned a few Japanese players who have qualified the hard way via the PTQ system, and now here’s a European name to watch from this group. Patrick Meissner of Germany.
Meissner may not be known, but former World Champion Makahito Mihara certainly is. He did well last year despite playing the game only a little, and whilst that seems set to continue, I would put money on him headlining at an event somewhere this year.
Quiet isn’t a word you associate with Andre Mueller, yet since his second place finish behind Remi Fortier at Pro Tour: Valencia in 2007 it’s an appropriate label. Still, if ‘quiet’ means Top 50 at Worlds and Top 16 at the largest Grand Prix ever in Paris, I guess we could all do with a bit more quiet in our lives.
I try to avoid bold predictions, all the more so if they involve British players. However, Stephen Murray of Scotland has now attended Worlds three times, and got better finishes each time, and now stands in the top 100 on Total ranking, a reward for hard work, patience and talent. Chances are he’ll be back for Worlds sooner or later.
Nothing much to say about Shuuhei Nakamura really, is there? LSV had a monumental tear through the back end of the year, but nobody could say the Player of the Year award for Shuuhei was undeserved. At the time of writing, he’s monstering his way through Grand Prix: Rotterdam, and you’d have to anticipate him making Top 8 before returning for his home Pro Tour. I only see four challengers to his crown, and I only think one of them can actually topple Shuuhei. Which one? Read on.
With their Team appearance on Super Sunday at Worlds, Antipodean Magic is on the rise once again, and Jeremy Neeman popped across the Tasman Sea (if my geography is any good, which it isn’t) to win a New Zealand PTQ in Auckland.
The headline act from Australia remains Aaron Nicastri, the 2008 National Champion who seized the opportunity with almost unholy fervor, and now has Rookie of the Year to add to his credentials.
One day soon I’m expecting to receive an email telling me that Masashi Oiso has resolved the Gifts Ungiven from Worlds. Go back to the start of this article, count the number of times you can form the word ‘yawn’ from the letters so far (that’s 16,301 characters), and you’ll arrive at your answer in about the same time it took Oiso and Co to select four cards for Gifts. So we’re clear, the thought that went into that decision was way out of my league, so I’m not pretending it was easy, or unimportant. What it was however, by almost any sane definition, was Slow Play, and those capitals aren’t unintentional. It was pretty clear in hindsight that this shouldn’t have happened, and word on the street is that it won’t be allowed to ever again. Good.
I love the colorful characters on the Pro Tour, players with swagger, and joie de vivre, and Oliver Oks ticks all those boxes. Doing a passable impression of a vagrant eccentric, Oks meanders the globe, randomly turning up and battering people at Magic, and leaving memories in his wake. When I saw his name on the invite list, I couldn’t help but smile.
Steve and Dan O’Mahoney-Schwartz. Daniel and Toby Grafensteiner. Antoine and Olivier Ruel. Daniel and Sebastian Zink. Four pairs of brothers who have all made their mark on tournament Magic. Now Marco and Matteo Orsini-Jones from England find themselves in the same Pro Tour together, a great reward for the brothers who have been the mainstays of the UK scene over the last few years.
I wish I’d been around to see the Pro Tour a decade ago for a number of reasons, one of which would be to see whether Jamie Parke was really good back then too. To me, he was the revelation of the 2008 season, culminating in a final appearance at the World Champs, only Malin preventing him taking the crown. In my view he occupies a similar space to Frank Karsten or Raph Levy — fantastically consistent, thoughtful, polite, ambassadors for the game — pretty much everything you could want in a Pro. I’ll be amazed if he doesn’t continue to put up good finishes this year.
What now for Mario Pascoli? The second place from Pro Tour: Kuala Lumpur is fading into the history books, and Pro Points have been reset. Was his Malaysian adventure his ‘fifteen minutes of fame’?
High on my list of players I wouldn’t want to play is Nicolay Potovin of Russia, because he strives every sinew in pursuit of victory every single round. He’s one of my contenders for the Terminator award, because ‘That Terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.’ That’s Potovin at Magic in a nutshell.
I’m not giving much away when I say that before Rich Hoaen was ‘grumpiest man on Tour’ (a title I’m not entirely sure he ever deserved), there was Josh Ravitz. Now there’s Josh Ravitz again, courtesy of a PTQ victory, and like Jamie Parke, he deserves your serious consideration as a contender.
Unless you’re English, you won’t know Neil Rigby, even though he’s played in half a dozen Pro Tours and a couple of World Championships, but he’s been a constant presence through much of my Magic life and beyond, and after a spell in the wilderness returns to the Pro scene. In a completely unbiased way I say ‘Kill them Neil. Kill them all.’
With 2 Grand Prix Top 16s to look back on in 2008, former World Champion Carlos Romao is doing his bit to contribute to the impression that Brazil is on the up and up.
Ben Rubin. Fear him. Arguably one of the most exciting additions to the Pro Tour this year, assuming he takes advantage of his Hall Of Fame status. Mesmeric to watch, and a nightmare to face.
Rankings are sometimes a good guide to performance, but I comfortably have Olivier Ruel in the top five contenders for Player of the Year, yet he sits 54th on ranking. Can you say ‘anomaly’?
Playing Goblins in Pro Tour: Berlin, Sweden’s Johan Sadeghpour narrowly missed out on the Top 8, but he’s one of the more interesting players out there in terms of plowing a lone furrow.
Tomaharu Saitou couldn’t defend his Player of the Year title from the Shuuhei onslaught, but it would raise an eyebrow in precisely zero ways if he retained the crown, and kept it in Japanese hands for the fifth year running.
Brandon Scheel was a model of consistency in the early part of 2008, then somewhat fell from view. With a bevy of young guns snapping away, he needs to turn Top 16s into Top 8s to avoid being swallowed by the pack.
So what of the hottest player on Earth, Luis Scott-Vargas? To expect anything like the last few months is foolishness, unless you think he’s about to enter into a serious debate about The Best Player Of All Time with Jon and Kai. Thing is, multi-format seems ideal for him, and there’s not much about Standard he won’t know. Come back in six months, and we’ll know whether that debate is live or not.
Stewart Shinkins livens up any gathering. Known for innovation coupled with success, it would be nice to think that he’s found a chink in the standard Standard decks.
After technically falling off the train at the end of the 2006 season, Bram Snepvangers — The Godfather of Dutch Magic — is back in harness with a vengeance, inside the Top 100 in the world, where he belongs.
Malaysian Terry Soh adds to the weight of PTQ winners with chances.
Nobody could accuse Jon Sonne of being a flashy player, but two Top 16s at Grand Prix means he’s entitled to take his chance. Frankly, I’d be surprised to see him make the trip.
Someone who has qualified courtesy of his rating is Shaheen Soorani, a tremendously exciting talent who missed out on a Worlds Top 8 in 2006 by the narrowest of heartbreak tiebreak margins, leaving him marooned in 9th. If he makes the trip, and that’s a big ask as an investment, he would be high on my list of US possibles.
If there’s ever a perennial PTQ player, it’s Guy Southcott from Scotland. A real fan of the game, he scours the UK in search of PTQ victories, and regularly finds them. So, his quest for a high PT finish continues. One of these days, he’ll make the Top 50, be invited to the following PT, and won’t know what to do with his weekends.
Whilst Armin Birner and Helmut Summersberger have been quiet of late, a new face on the Austrian block is Philipp Summereder, who played Dredge to a decent finish in Pro Tour: Berlin.
After his Rookie of the Year performance, Sebastian Thaler seemed to have stalled, but came roaring back on home soil in Berlin with a deserved Top 8 performance. In contention here at Grand Prix: Rotterdam, Thaler seems back to his best, and will be looking to add a Top 8 to the one he secured on these shores in 2007 at Pro Tour: Yokohama.
Ervin Tormos led the field after two memorable days of Worlds action. Then Extended happened, and that was that. If he makes the trip (unlikely), he would be an entertaining addition to the event.
Kenji Tsumura announced his semi-retirement from top-level play at Worlds, but a semi-retired Kenji is better than many a full-time Pro. This will be the most likely trip to make for obvious reasons, and Standard doesn’t seem to have changed vastly, so there’s reasons for optimism amongst his legions of fans.
Arjan van Leeuwen won Grand Prix: Paris last year, and at the time of writing is making a pretty good fist of things in Rotterdam. Now he’ll look to step up to the plate at the highest level.
You might think that with Chris Lachmann gone, Jacob van Lunen would have to fend for himself. Far from it. JvL is uber-connected, and tests with a Magic greatest hits collection in New York. That makes him a contender.
When it comes to Nationals play, and Grand Prix, Robert van Medevoort has demonstrated he has what it takes. On the Pro Tour, he has yet to make a headline breakthrough, but he’s maturing nicely, and this could be that big year.
Guillaume Wafo-Tapa won Pro Tour: Yokohama in 2007, and began 2008 by making the Top 8 of Pro Tour: Kuala Lumpur, and then being undefeated on Day One of Pro Tour: Hollywood. Although not quite a coronation, it looked to some like we were witnessing a Player of the Year domination. Didn’t happen, and now, like Shuuhei last year, he must rebuild to reach the summit once more.
And, it won’t surprise you to learn, last but not least comes Matej Zatlkaj, the gallant runner-up behind LSV in Pro Tour: Berlin. Along with Martin Juza, he’s one of the most exciting prospects in European Magic right now, and I can certainly see more Top 8s somewhere down the line.
And that’s your lot. As usual, it’s impossible to cover everyone, but I hope this has marked your card for the forthcoming festivities. Please join Randy, BDM, myself and the whole mtg.com crowd bringing you all the action through the night from Kyoto, starting on late Thursday night in Europe, and through the evening of Thursday in the US.
Until next week from Japan… as ever, thanks for reading.
R.