This weekend, all told, we’ve seen a pretty huge set of lists: the Top 8 lists for the Kentucky Open, and the National tournaments of Singapore, Australia, Spain, and probably most importantly, Japan. Australia’s Top 8 included former rookie sensation Aaron Nicastri piloting a strange Makeshift Mannequin deck that bears some examination, while Singapore included regular Pro Mr. Albertus Hui Chin Law, considered by many to be one of Singapore’s top players, himself piloting a bizarre Sleep/Time Warp-based update to Sanity Grinding. Spain’s Top 8 was largely filled with lesser known players to those of us on this side of the Atlantic, but also featured an almost retro set of decklists, reminding us that the world has not changed so terribly much. The most anticipated Nationals, though, was on full display. Japan’s Top 8 was packed with big names, with the inimitable Shuuhei Nakamura joining Spain’s Enric Marti in winning his National Championship with that old workhorse, Five-Color Control.
All of this comes in advance of U.S. Nationals, historically one of my favorite tournaments. Years ago, I debuted Counter-Oath at U.S. Nats to great success, but foolishly chose not to play it in the main event, even as it dominated the Meatgrinders (our nickname for the massive single-elimination tournaments that were the LCQs of yesteryear), assuming that everyone was going to be aware of the deck. Foolish. Ten years ago, the Wisconsin crew, this time lead by Milwaukee technology, had several decks that employed the “White Lightning” end-of-turn trick in Waylay, but Mike Flores let the cat out of the bag, and suddenly our tech became “tech,” and Waylay found its way into WW decks of all stripes, including champion Kyle Rose’s quickly updated build of the deck. Last year was a great year for me at Nationals. Not only did I have an incredible time, just in general, but Sam Black was able to take my build of Elves into the finals.
This year, I’m sad to say, I don’t have the levels of technology that I’ve had in previous years. But this year, there certainly is a lot more raw material available to work with…
Speaking of Sam Black, his analysis of the top performing decks from last weekend is a good read for someone looking to get a basic overview of the game as it stands after M10 hits the competitive world. His analysis is mostly spot on, though I have a beef with his equivocating the Five-Color updates to Naya-Jund Cascade or Five-Color Blood with actual, factual Five-Color Control, which seems to me like putting Combo Elves and G/B Beatdown Elves into the same basket.
If we combine the results for all of the Top 8s, we get the following list of decks:
Faeries: 7
Kithkin: 6, 2 Wins
Five-Color Control: 6, 2 Wins
Combo Elves: 6
Five-Color Blood: 3
Five-Color Cascade: 2
Jund Cascade: 2
Red/X: 2
Green/Red Beats: 2
Green/Black Elves: 1
Merfolk: 1
Mannequin Control: 1
Sanity Grinding: 1
Where Sam says that he sees the format as getting less diverse, I think I have to respectfully disagree.
Unlike in previous articles, where perhaps I had access to all of the lists of a tournament, I can’t see the full breadth of the metagame. What we do have is access to the current winner’s metagame, clearly in different stages of growth.
Take a tournament like the Kentucky Open. I think it is safe to say that there were two overarching sub-metagames going on at the event. The first metagame would be for those people who were actively giving it their best shot, either because they don’t care to hold anything back for Nationals or because winning the Kentucky Open to them was in-and-of-itself the prize that their ultimately aiming for. This is probably the larger of the two overarching metas. The second metagame is that of the pro or semi-pro who is holding back a little bit of tech in the hopes of unveiling it at Nationals.
Events like Japan, on the other hand, give those players no reason to hold back. For each and every one of the Nationals, you can be assured that each player’s deck was as good as they could make it given the resources that they had available to them. At least one well-known pro has commented some disappointment in the great showing of Elves at Nationals, because they hoped to capitalize on an unprepared metagame. Kentucky, on the other hand, probably is watered down, at least a smidge, but it is still likely that the vast majority of the decks at the event were definitely as good as they could make, though I doubt that some of the well-known pros who attended the event played their best deck.
For reference, here are links to the various Top 8:
Japan
Singapore
Australia
Spain
Kentucky Open
If we’re looking at these results as showcasing a “winner’s metagame,” dominated by Faeries, Combo Elves, Five-Color Control, and Kithkin, it’s worth comparing this to the old winner’s metagame to see just how little the results do to prove a reduction in the diversification of the format:
7 — 15% – Faeries
6 — 13% – Jund Cascade
6 — 13% – Black/White Tokens
4 — 8% – Reveillark
3 — 6% – Green/White Overrun
3 — 6% – Swans
2 — 4% – Boat Brew
2 — 4% – Five-Color Cascade
2 — 4% –Naya-Jund Cascade Control
2 — 4% – Doran Junk
2 — 4% – Kithkin
2 — 4% – Elves
2 — 4% – Red(/X)
1 — 2% – Five-Color Control
1 — 2% – Elementals
1 — 2% – Bant
1 — 2% – Elves!!!
1 — 2% – OTHER
Compare that to now:
7 — 17.5% – Faeries
6 — 15% – Kithkin
6 — 15% – Five-Color Control
6 — 15% – Combo Elves
3 — 7.5% – Five-Color Blood
2 — 5% – Five-Color Cascade
2 — 5% – Jund Cascade
2 — 5% – Red/X
2 — 5% – Green/Red Beats
1 — 2.5% – Green/Black Elves
1 — 2.5% – Merfolk
1 — 2.5% – Mannequin Control
1 — 2.5% – Sanity Grinding
18 archetypes were represented before, as opposed to 13 now, but those 18 archetypes came out of hundreds of decklists, as opposed to just 40. More importantly, however, is noting just what percent of the represented decklists were represented by the number one archetype, both times, Faeries.
Previously, the most popular winning archetype had 15% field-representation. Now it has 17.5%. That is not high. Before, only four archetypes had more than 7.5% representation and only six above 5%. Now it is up to five and nine, respectively.
What this means is simple: the field is likely just as diverse as before. If you’ve been playing much in the way of Standard, lately, you know that that means that it is wildly diverse.
The phenomena that is happening right now, though, I describe in detail in my article Deck Discovery and Collective Intelligence. From that article:
An ecology begins to enter the picture because of the metagame. As a format starts, it is generally wildly undiscovered, and fairly weak decks can actually do quite well, as they act as predators on the still weaker decks. Deck discovery will lead to stronger and stronger decks, both in the theoretical-vacuum-sense, and in the relational-metagame-sense, which will further eliminate from contention those decks that are weaker. In static, unchanging formats, like old Block formats, this can mean that there is a final “best” deck (Teachings in Time Spiral Block seems to be the consensus “best” deck, for example), but in dynamic formats, often this will continuously change before we can actually get to a “true” best deck.
The Magic Hive Mind hasn’t actively figured out the “best” deck in this format for a number of reasons. First of all, many people are keeping their tech secret. This is a very new format, and tech edges are actually a huge deal right now, before they end up in the public consciousness. Second, MTGO doesn’t currently have M10, so one of the biggest tools for spreading of knowledge and of deck discovery is not in operation. Third, there have been very few events to really make people have a sense about what is truly “good.” For many people, they’re just taking things at the word of others.
I know that in my preparations for Standard, for example, I had initially believed that Faeries was going to be a big deal, but was talked out of it by Gaudenis Vidugiris. “When even Sam Black thinks that Faeries is dead, it’s dead.” I was a little bit dubious of this, thinking that not even the Stag could truly deliver Faeries a knock-out punch, but Gau definitely convinced me I was wrong. I talked a little to Sam, and I was basically sold.
And, who knows? Maybe after we discover the metagame further, we’ll discover that Faeries actually is dead, if only we knew the format more. But for now, it is alive and well, and just as popular as ever. Faeries popularity, though, seems a lot like that of a really snobby rich kid whose parents leave town to go skiing every weekend — while the money and parent-free environment guarantees a lot of friends over on the weekend while things are riding high, when the house gets taken away by the IRS, strangely most of the friends “disappear”… True story!
I feel like Sam effectively covered Faeries, Kithkin, and Elves in his article, so I’ll let you read it for more thoughts on those decks. I’m actually interested in several other decks from the weekend.
Five-Color Control is an interesting little beast. Often beloved by many of the top pros (notably winning the last Worlds in the hands of Gabriel Nassif), it all-but disappeared off the face of tournament Magic there for a little bit. Brian Kowal recently declared the archetype “deader than dead.” But despite this, it came roaring back this weekend, winning two National Championships.
Here is Shuhei’s list:
Creatures (9)
Lands (26)
Spells (25)
In many ways, this list is totally old-school. It runs a Broodmate kill, with Mulldrifter and Esper Charm for card draw. Wrath of God has been replaced by Hallowed Burial, a card that was already getting the nod from a lot of players even before M10, if only because it was so effective against creatures with Persist. The point-and-click elimination is represented by only a pair of Agony Warp and a Doom Blade, with the brunt of the work being done by Fallouts, Plumeveils, Cruel Ultimatum, and Hallowed Burial.
Sam asked me what I thought of this list, and I have to say, I basically like it. There has been a lot of criticism of the pair of one-ofs in the deck, but I don’t think I mind them at all. Essence Scatter is serving the place of a combination “4th” creature removal spell and “4th” Broken Ambitions, but at the same time, it also can go a long way to confusing your opponent about card counts. If you’re playing against Five-Color Control, and your opponent casts an Essence Scatter, suddenly you begin having to ask yourself, are they running 10 or 12 counters? Similarly, the split of creature kill makes an opponent ask questions. In essence, Agony Warp and Doom Blade often do so much of the same work, it is basically like you are running three of them. Offers to change in for a Terminate strike me as ill-thought out. Terminate requires BR, a far bigger challenge for this deck than B1 or BU, or even RR.
The most important factor that makes this deck stand out in my mind is its sideboard. 4 Great Sable Stag are a fantastic way to pressure a Faerie deck. In the classic Faerie/Five-Color Control matchup, the matchup has classically always favored Faeries. While Five-Color Control had access to all of the “best” spells, it was an instant example of how synergy could win out over raw power. From a raw power perspective, for example, Spellstutter Sprite is simply not that great of a card. Despite this, once you put it into a bona fida Faerie deck, it begins to shine. With each successive draw phase, a Faerie’s decks synergies would simply tend to overcome a Five-Color Control player, even if that player was aggressively interested in beating Faeries. Now, with Great Sable Stag on top of Volcanic Fallout, backed by Cryptic Command, I think that it is safe to say that Five-Color Control might have attained enough antagonistically raw power that it can finally take that matchup on a regular basis.
One of the things that is quite shocking to me from the Kentucky Open is the Five-Color Cascade list played by Steve Sadin.
Creatures (13)
Lands (27)
Spells (20)
- 1 Primal Command
- 1 Runed Halo
- 4 Hallowed Burial
- 3 Volcanic Fallout
- 1 Obelisk of Alara
- 2 Maelstrom Pulse
- 4 Captured Sunlight
- 4 Bituminous Blast
Sideboard
In essence, this deck is an update of the block Naya-Jund Cascade deck from the Pro Tour. Essentially, the deck is 13 Cascade cards, filled with singletons that can change the game, and several cards that just keep the wheel of the deck greased. Broodmate Dragon sits outside of the Cascade curve for all but the Enigma Sphinx, and serves as a potent finisher, and great alternate to the Enlisted Wurm that usually shows up in this deck. The deck just tries to stay alive while playing at having fairly high counts of its cheaper spells. Even if there are only 2 Maelstrom Pulse in the deck, when you put the 13 Cascade into the mix, it feels like a lot more.
I’m not 100% sure about the Captured Sunlights in the deck. The smidge of extra life does grant the deck more time to go about doing what it sets out to do, but it also feels underwhelming. Fallout is a great card to cascade into if you’re fighting against Faeries or Elves, though, so perhaps it serves a good use. The choice to forego Enlisted Wurm is clearly very pointed. As such, it does miss out on the Enlisted Wurm/Hallowed Burial or Primal Command combo, but I’m also willing to believe that Sadin’s choice to not include that was well thought out. Broodmate is, in a way, an “Enlisted Wurm,” but one that can be far more readily relied on to be good, even if an Enlisted Wurm has the possibility of being an Enlisted “Ultimatum.”
But, by far, the decks that I was most eager to look at both had Lightning Bolt and Flame Javelin. I can’t help it; seeing those two cards together gets me in a smiling mood.
Creatures (16)
Lands (24)
Spells (20)
Sideboard
Creatures (24)
- 4 Ball Lightning
- 4 Boggart Ram-Gang
- 4 Tattermunge Maniac
- 4 Figure of Destiny
- 4 Goblin Outlander
- 4 Jund Hackblade
Lands (23)
Spells (14)
Sideboard
These are very different Red decks. Fujimoto’s build is basically a Demigod-burn deck, where Garcia’s is a creature-based attack deck. Let’s look at one of the things about both decks that has been plaguing the archetype for a while, their curve:
1: Garcia 18, Fujimoto 12
2: Garcia 8, Fujimoto 4
3: Garcia 12, Fujimoto 16
4: 0
5: Fujimoto 4
These curves are both ugly (though Garcia’s is less scary to me). Both are running Magma Spray, with Garcia complementing it with Tarfire (partly to support his Auntie’s Hovel). This choice to use Magma Spray is certainly inspired entirely by the problem of Kitchen Finks and the like. If it were not, Fujimoto would simply be playing Tarfire himself. This might be a necessity. One of the alternate solutions to this problem is Puncture Blast, but unfortunately, this “solution” has the unfortunate issue of further gumming up the already problematic three-drop slot.
The real issue, in many ways, is the two-slot. What on earth do we put there?
The answers always boil down to the same set of cards, really. Goblin Outlander, Stigma Lasher, Jund Hackblade, and Hellspark Elemental are the only ones that actually seem reasonable, for the most part. After that, you’re generally in marginal territory. This doesn’t leave you much in the way of options, for a red deck, particularly if you want to have access to Volcanic Fallout. This is a real problem, and is one of the reasons that a lot of Red decks chose to lean on Hellspark Elemental.
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the two biggest surprises that I have a handle on from this last weekend, Merfolk and Sanity Grinding.
Spells (27)
Sideboard
Albertus Law’s Sanity Grinding is an incredibly bold new take on the archetype. Sleep and Time Warp can do some ridiculous things when you’re using a Jace. Even more impressive, though, is what they can do on a Shelldock Isle. If you’ve managed to get a good mill in on your opponent, cast a Sleep during your opponent’s turn is simply sick. This, all by itself, can cause such a fit to your opponent, if they are the kind of opponent that attacks. Time Warp, in and of itself, is a very exciting card, and thinking about how it interacts with Twincast is also exciting.
I’m still not sure that this deck can do what it needs to, however. He either lost to one of two Kithkin decks, a Five-Color Control, or G/R aggro. At my heart, I’m always a doubter on this archetype, but it could be that Law has taken this deck to the point where it can finally do what it needs to. I’m still a bit skeptical, however…
More interesting to me is Aaron Nicoll’s Merfolk deck.
Creatures (27)
- 4 Merrow Reejerey
- 4 Silvergill Adept
- 2 Sower of Temptation
- 3 Sygg, River Guide
- 4 Stonybrook Banneret
- 4 Cursecatcher
- 2 Wake Thrasher
- 4 Merfolk Sovereign
Lands (22)
Spells (12)
Sideboard
I view Merfolk decks of note from this last year as being in, generally, one of two camps: the Prosak build, based on Reveillark, running a more long-term game plan, and the Richard Feldman build, which plays out more like a Blue-Green Madness deck than a fish deck. Nicoll’s deck has an element of both of these decks, and touches into it a shocking card choice that I find somewhat mind blowing: Harm’s Way.
Harm’s Way has had a lot of discussion lately, generally in the running for being a sleeper Kithkin card. Unfortunately for Kithkin, it really doesn’t look like this fully plays out in that deck; there are just too many cards that serve the needs of a Kithkin list, and switching into Harm’s Way doesn’t give enough back to the deck to really support it.
Nicoll’s list, though, might actually give Harm’s Way a home. Dropping down to a shocking four counters, the Harm’s Way often act as a de facto counter/creature kill spell. Nicoll doesn’t include a single Path to Exile in his main, instead relying on Harm’s Way to do that kind of work. In many ways this is pretty fair. Between Cryptic Command, Harm’s Way, and Sower of Temptation, he really does have a lot of ways to handle a creature.
Overall, I really like this list, even if I am a bit dubious about the Ponder in it. Further, his land count, Ponder notwithstanding, looks to me like it is begging for trouble. With only 22 land (and 4 of them Mutavault), I can’t help but wonder if he is just hoping to be super lucky with his mana. My gut says this count should probably be increased.
I’m still not sure what I’m going to be playing this weekend. Everything that I’ve played so far suffers from one of three problems. It sucks, or its just not quite there, or it is essentially a stock list. Now, there’s nothing wrong with playing a stock list, but at a format like Nationals, I like to have a huge edge with my deck, and I definitely feel like, for now, I don’t. One part of the problem has definitely been, even before M10, a real lack of access to cards on MTGO, but hopefully that will change eventually, as I’m drafting more on MTGO now than I ever have before.
Standard is still a wide open format. I know that if I do play one of the stock lists, it’s probably going to be Five-Color Control, or Jund Aggro, or Red Burn, or Green/Red beats, or Merfolk, or… well, let’s face it, there’s a lot to choose from. I have to grind in, but I’ve done it before, and I’m sure I can do it again.
Wish me luck this weekend!