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Magical Hack: Your Fate Is Sealed

Read Sean McKeown... every Friday at
StarCityGames.com!

With the Pro Tour Qualifiers for PT Kobe fast approaching, Sean looks at the full-Block RGD Sealed format, with particular reference to the Top 8 lists of last weekend’s triple-whammy of Grand Prix Action. Remember, math is your friend!

Whether your interest is in the upcoming Limited State Championships or the nascent qualifier season for Pro Tour: Kobe, Sealed Decks will be your weapon of choice until such a time as you can prove that you are worthy of wielding a more deadly weapon… and being asked to prove that worth at the drafting tables. Whether you think you could use the help trying to get to those tables, or perhaps could use a few pointers once you’ve gotten there, this past weekend has been an eventful one for the home spectator. (Alright, so it was pretty eventful too for the people who got to go to their choice of an Asian-Pacific, European, or North American Grand Prix… so sue me, ‘cause that’s the only way you’re getting my poetic license revoked.)

There are three different coverage teams working in three different corners of the globe to bring us information, and conveniently all three included both the 8-0 decklists and the draft decks and match results of the Top 8 drafts. First things first; we’re going to have a look at Sealed Deck help, to take a look at the decks from various spots on the globe that were good enough to go undefeated on the first day. Winning at Sealed Deck is what it’s going to take to get to the elimination rounds of both Champs and the PTQs, and we’ve probably never had a harder Sealed Deck format… having lived through the Invasion-Planeshift-Apocalypse limited season, I firmly recall how the addition of Apocalypse turned what was previously a rather uncomplicated (and dare I say banal) Invasion-Planeshift Limited format into a complex quagmire of traps and pitfalls… but even then, things weren’t quite this difficult to figure out, because the power gradient between the really good cards and the really bad cards was steeper. The difference between the good cards and the bad cards isn’t quite so steep, because neither Steamcore Weird nor Ogre Savant can hold a candle to their predecessor, Jilt (with Kicker)… Ravnica has a very even, very high power curve, and when everything looks good you will find tons of room for error. IPA tested your nerves, your faith, and most of all your perception of what you can and cannot get away with… RGD tests your experience, your decision-making process, and gives you so much better mana-fixing to make it all work out with… testing your perception of what you can get away with in Sealed Deck far more than IPA did, because this time you can get away with it! (But should you? That’s why we say this format is “skill testing”.)

For our first comparison, let’s drag up some Sealed Decks. The undefeated lists from Kuala Lumpur, Torino, and Toronto can all be found just by clicking the respective links, which doubtlessly will see Craig thanking me because I was tempted to just paste all of the decklists here for Craig to enter. After last week’s piles and piles of tables to be entered, I think showing decklist after decklist here would just be spiteful when you can click directly to the coverage’s presentation of these same decks.

For trends, we see the following:

Kuala Lumpur

Kenji Tsumura – G/B/w/u (2 Karoos, 2 Signets, Farseek, Wayfinder, Starfletcher)
James Porter – G/B/r/w (3 Karoos, 1 Dual, 2 Signets, Wayfinder)
Nan Tu – U/R/W/B (2 Karoos, 1 Dual, and a color split that makes the baby Jesus cry)

Torino

Bram Snepvangers – G/U/r/w (2 Karoos, Terrarion, Wayfinder)
Georgios Kapalas – G/W/R/u (3 Karoos, 1 Signet)

Toronto

Ben Lundquist – G/B/u/r (2 Karoos, 1 Signet, Farseek / Wayfinder)
John Fiorillo – G/B/w/u (2 Karoos, 1 Dual, 2 Signets, Farseek / Wayfinder / Starfletcher / Sprawl)

So, if six of the seven best decks from this weekend were Green, and six of the seven best decks from this weekend played Blue in some concentration, from a “one-of” Compulsive Research or Vedalken Dismisser to having Blue as their main color… does this tell us something? (If a tree falls in a forest, and it lands on a mime, does anybody care?) In fact, four of the seven decks were heavily Golgari-based, with strong Black and Green themes with the addition of other splashes. And it should also be seen as a telling sign that each and every single X-0 player from the Grand Prix was playing four colors of mana, from Nan Tu’s full-on split to “just one more card” like Kenji’s Dismisser.

In the world of four colors of mana, those who fix well can succeed well. Of the seven players, we have a total of 16 Karoos, averaging at just over two per player. We also have eight Signets, and the people who excluded them didn’t do so necessarily because they wanted to, as the occasional Terrarion as seen in Bram’s deck might attest. We also have three Farseeks, five Wayfinders, two Starfletchers and a Utopia Sprawl, not to mention three of the seven players opened a $20 bill and actually used it to fix their mana, Karoo-style, instead of just presuming that this dual land in their pocket helped to “offset” the tournament entry fee, a common thought among PTQ players.

In Sealed Deck at least, it seems clear that we are talking about a very high power format, where the decks that succeed are the ones that stretch their mana that extra little bit in order to squeeze in just one more bomb card, just one more color, along with their best creatures and all their mana fixers and all that other stuff we’re used to in Sealed Deck: playing for your evasion creatures and making sure you have tricks and a decent curve and all that. This means we have an odd format, one dominated by the powerful cards everyone is bringing to the table and the solid synergy of the cards in their deck… and presumably one that is slower than draft, where one’s mana can be helter-skelter and still be expected to work itself out before it’s too, too late.

This appears to be a reversal of what I thought was going on in the last PTQ season, which “only” added Guildpact’s three guilds to the set and still had some strong guild synergy interactions going on. With two Guildpact, you got just enough to let the Orzhov, Gruul and Izzet themes of those colors stand out, giving you a solid point-and-counterpoint system in your Sealed Deck… as one starter of Ravnica is enough to let some of the themes from its four guilds shine, while two boosters of Guildpact also was just about enough to give each of those three guilds their distinct character. With just one pack of Dissension and just one pack of Guildpact, neither of those two expansions is present in enough quantity to really let their guilds shine, and dictate a clear and easy path to victory. Ravnica still shines, but it doesn’t really work as well as it used to with so many themes going at cross-purposes to each other, and the absurdly high power level of the cards in the sealed deck distributed seemingly evenly across five different colors and all ten guilds.

If Ravnica-Guildpact Sealed Deck was a complicated yet delicate game of balancing your risks versus the rewards for trying to reach them… well, I’m sorry, but the name of the game for Ravnica-Guildpact-Dissension Sealed Deck is Thermonuclear War. Grab all your warheads, throw some mana fixers and bouncelands in there and pretend it’s a guidance system, cross your fingers, and hope the Russians don’t fire first. If you thought the war games Matthew Broderick had to play back as a fresh-faced youth in the “age of innocence” 80s, imagine Ferris Bueller trying to wrap his head around the intricacies of RGD Sealed Deck. I think I’d take a few days off, too.

The good news is, every deck comes equipped with a reasonable share of bombs, because there are a lot of them spread across all of the guilds. The same thing that made Regionals so interesting, with a plethora of viable options and solid tools for deckbuilding just lying around, ensures that pretty much every Sealed Deck is going to have some game. It should come as no surprise when you look at the undefeated decks to say things like “so, Kenji squeezed in Card X, Y and Z because it was easy to splash thanks to his mana fixers” instead of saying “Kenji is such a lucksack; not only did he open blah and blah ridiculous cards but he even opened just the right Karoos and Signets to go with it!”

The lesson we have seen from those who are better than us, if there is indeed a lesson to be learned, is that the mana fixing your deck can provide should dictate just how far you try and stretch when adding your most powerful cards. Generally, a two-color deck with up to two splashes will work, because six out of the seven undefeated decks were solidly two colors with just a few cards of colors three and four. With the right Karoos and Signets, the extra colors become effectively “free,” because you can add enough sources off things that incidentally just happen to add mana of your main colors as well. When I am making a manabase for my deck, be it Sealed or Draft, I spread everything out by color and chart it on a piece of paper (if it’s really tough to figure out) or better yet just by stacking the cards in front of me. Collect the number of mana symbols of each color, including hybrid mana, and tally them and count them up. For example:

Red: 4
Black: 11
Green: 14
Blue: 3

Traditionally, or at least since Guildpact became legal and manabases needed color fixing and were harder to figure out, I’ve been playing sixteen actual lands and two Signets to provide my colors, and am generally hesitant to drop lower than sixteen. Decks with a low curve usually get seventeen and no Signets from me, because the thought of mulliganing with a deck that has four bouncelands, two Signets, and just eleven “real” lands gives me night sweats. I’ve had nightmares where the same Golgari Signet and Azorius Chancery keep reappearing in my hand, until just those two cards remain and my chances of victory have been shuffled away, without a “real” land to turn them into actual mana sources… and I try to make sure that those nightmares don’t become a brutal reality at an inopportune time. So we’re looking at eighteen sources of colored mana here, and if we’ve got really great fixing, or happen to have scored a really good land like Sunhome, Vitu-Ghazi, or Skaarg that fits with our Sealed Deck, it doesn’t contribute to the colored mana tally (though it does contribute to the “real land” count, instead of being counted as a spell, because I’d be happy to skimp on lands if I thought it’d work with the Signets and Karoos I am inevitably leaning on to fix my colors).

Add up the number of colored mana symbols total (in this case, 32) and divide to get the theoretical number of lands you should be playing to draw mana consistently: 4 x (18/32) lands for your Red mana, or 2.25. 3 x (18/32) lands for your Blue mana, or 1.68. 6.18 sources of Black mana, and 7.87 sources of Green mana. Fortunately, you get to play more than this, and that is the beauty of Karoos and Signets and why we love them so much: they give us more sources of our splashes, and more sources of our main colors, while providing card advantage (for Karoo) or mana acceleration (for Signets). For each Karoo or Signet you have, add one to the “number of lands played” total here. You aren’t adding actual lands, but you do get double duty out of your colored sources, so right off the bat having a Karoo will fix your mana proportions and you can use math to figure out how.

Let’s be reasonable and say you have two Karoos and two Signets in the above example, and these Karoos and Signets are not off-color. (A strictly off-color Signet or Karoo only counts once, instead of weighing in twice, because its second color doesn’t contribute to your colored mana tally if you aren’t trying to cast any spells off it.) So now we have 22 sources of colored mana to play with, so the math changes: 4 x (22/32) lands for your Red mana, or 2.75. 3 x (22/32) lands for your Blue mana, or 2.06. 7.56 sources of Black mana, and 9.6 sources of Green mana. These are the proportions given to you by “the math,” but most of us don’t get to have a calculator with us when we build decks. (Those whose cell phones or watches can do math, feel free to use your advantage instead of just “feeling” for what seems right.)

Fortunately, despite having 14 Green mana symbols in our spells, we probably can get away with using less than 9.6 Forests to get our mana from. I mean, 9 forests would probably be fine, you won’t die because you rounded down instead of up because you’re stranded with Rushwood Elemental in your hand again. Eight will even probably work still, because drawing seven or ten or whatever cards without drawing one of your eight sources is moderately improbable. Not impossible, just improbable, so you can probably go down to eight sources in your main color and not have to mulligan more than once because you’ve drawn Green cards and no Forests. A splash where you have two or more cards probably deserves three lands at the least. For four cards or so, I start to want that fourth land so I don’t get stuck with uncastable cards time and again. And if you’re “splashing” six or seven cards, just admit you’re not splashing already and accept “the suck” as your manabase, go with a full-on split… sacrifice a kid goat to your deity of choice up there in Mana Heaven, and we’ll see you in the Top 8.

Playing two main colors and two splashes just makes good sense, because the math works out better for your minor colors (you get to cheat in more sources) and you’ll be able to cast most of your spells reliably (because most of your spells are the two colors that you have most of your lands in, duh!). You can fudge the mana up in colored sources to benefit your splash colors, giving you three or four or more sources in your minor colors, and fudge the mana down a bit in your main colors, going with just seven or eight sources (though I’d be happier with eight than with seven) in your main colors. Problems will still happen, but you’ve attacked them with numbers! Numbers don’t lie, do they?

(No, but mathematicians do, and this humble mathemagician has never said he’s got a perfect understanding of numbers to begin with. Long arguments with Zvi and the topics of where numbers theory and chaos theory overlap, from back in my youthful days on Neutral Ground’s A Neutral Eye column, still hurt my brain… like when I tried to convince Zvi, who is much better at the math than I am, that the concept of a distribution chart for “percentage randomness” could explain how certain “special” shuffles accidentally work to attack the randomness in a certain spread of decks that just happen to accidentally come up often on the probability distribution curve of the “percent randomness” chart. Once I had to dip into my knowledge of physical chemistry and start explaining things based on the “eigenstates” of the deck’s possible composition, we knew the argument was going nowhere. Beware numbers from those who are not authorized to use them! Adrian Sullivan really doesn’t win 90% of the time against everything, and Mike Flores 80% wins in playtesting should be colored with the numerical bias that a drooling chimpanzee could probably accomplish a similar match win percentage if he, too, playtested in the MTGO “Tournament Practice Room”. End aside.)

The lesson of RGD Sealed is that color fixing helps you cheat on colored mana, so building your deck around your Karoos and Signets should be a key consideration. After all, if you’re playing four colors and each Signet or Karoo in your playables is guaranteed to tap for at least one of those colors, is there really such a thing as a Karoo that you don’t like? Figuring out how to maximize their color-stabilizing effect by using them to squeeze in the maximum number of thermonuclear warheads is just common sense, so praise the Lord and pass the hand grenades.

Draft, however, is a trickier animal. The mana is better and the decks more streamlined, so you presumably just can’t grab whatever you feel like and assume that it will all work out in the end. It’s a faster format, and one where you actually get to choose your fate and prejudice your picks to follow key themes, so there will be more card synergy and a lot of interactions that build off each other… as the tendency towards wanting to be the Blood-Graft R/G/U player showed us all right around Prague.

Let’s look at some decklists, shall we? Again, rather than stretch this column to thirty pages and cause Craig to die at a young age from terminal carpal tunnel syndrome, just click on the links to see the Top 8 decks from Kuala Lumpur, Torino, and Toronto.

Top 8

Kuala Lumpur

Kenji Tsumura – U/R/B (3 Karoos, 2 Signets, 1 Terraformer; 17 Lands)
Osamu Fujita – G/R/b (1 Signet, 1 Utopia Sprawl, 1 Starfletcher; 16 Lands)
Quentin Martin – W/R/U (2 Karoos; 17 Lands)
Ruud Warmenhoven – R/W/B (2 Karoos, 1 Signet; 16 Lands)
Terry Soh – R/G/U (3 Karoos, 1 Signet, 1 Starfletcher, 1 Terraformer; 16 Lands)
Shouta Yasooka – R/G/U (1 Dual, 1 Signet; 16 Lands)
Cynic Kim – G/W/u/b (1 Signet, 2 Utopia Sprawl, 1 Starfletcher; 16 Lands)
Itaru Ishida – U/W/b (1 Karoo; 17 Lands)

(1 Karoo, 2 Signets unused between all eight players’ sideboards.)

Torino

Marco Lombardi – U/W/R (1 Karoo, 1 Signet; 16 Lands)
Guillaume Wafo-Tapa – G/B/R (2 Karoos, 2 Signets; 15 Lands)
Pierre Canali – G/W/B (2 Karoos, 1 Signet, 1 Utopia Sprawl; 16 Lands)
Nico Bohny – U/W/R (4 Karoos; 17 Lands)
Antoine Ruel – B/W/r (17 Lands)
Klaus Dieter Jons – U/W/b/g (3 Karoos, 2 Signets; 16 Lands)
Giacomo Mallamaci – G/R/w/u (3 Karoos, 1 Dual, 2 Starfletcher; 16 Lands)
Bram Snepvangers – G/R/B (1 Karoo, 2 Signets, 1 Wayfinder, 1 Vesper Ghoul; 16 Lands)

(1 Karoo, 1 Signet unused between all eight players’ sideboards.)

Toronto

Jelger Wiegersma – U/W/r (1 Signet, 1 Terraformer; 17 Lands)
Jon Sonne – B/R/u (3 Karoos, 1 Signet; 17 Lands)
Antonino DeRosa – G/R/b/u (1 Karoo, 2 Signets 1 Wayfinder, 1 Starfletcher; 16 Lands)
John Fiorillo – B/R/W (1 Karoo, 2 Signets; 16 Lands)
Mark Lovin – G/W/r/b (1 Karoo, 3 Signets, 1 Utopia Sprawl; 16 Lands)
Brad Taulbee – G/w/r/b/u (4 Karoos, 1 Dual, 1 Signet, 1 Utopia Sprawl; 16 Lands)
Kyle Sanchez – G/W/B (1 Karoo, 1 Signet; 16 Lands)
Jay Jiang – U/W/R (1 Karoo, 1 Signet; 16 Lands)

(Sideboard information not provided by the coverage staff.)

Main Colors, Entire Top 8:
Green Red Black Blue White
12 15 7 10 13
Minor Colors, Entire Top 8:
Green Red Black Blue White
1 4 7 5 1

Top 4

Kuala Lumpur

Kenji Tsumura – U/R/B (3 Karoos, 2 Signets, 1 Terraformer; 17 Lands)
Osamu Fujita – G/R/b (1 Signet, 1 Utopia Sprawl, 1 Starfletcher; 16 Lands)
Quentin Martin – W/R/U (2 Karoos; 17 Lands)
Ruud Warmenhoven – R/W/B (2 Karoos, 1 Signet; 16 Lands)

Torino

Nico Bohny – U/W/R (4 Karoos; 17 Lands)
Antoine Ruel – B/W/r (17 Lands)
Klaus Dieter Jons – U/W/b/g (3 Karoos, 2 Signets; 16 Lands)
Bram Snepvangers – G/R/B (1 Karoo, 2 Signets, 1 Wayfinder, 1 Vesper Ghoul; 16 Lands)

Toronto

Jon Sonne – B/R/u (3 Karoos, 1 Signet; 17 Lands)
Antonino DeRosa – G/R/b/u (1 Karoo, 2 Signets 1 Wayfinder, 1 Starfletcher; 16 Lands)
Mark Lovin – G/W/r/b (1 Karoo, 3 Signets, 1 Utopia Sprawl; 16 Lands)
Kyle Sanchez – G/W/B (1 Karoo, 1 Signet; 16 Lands)

Main Colors, Cut to Top 4:
Green Red Black Blue White
5 7 6 4 7
Minor Colors, Cut to Top 4:
Green Red Black Blue White
1 2 4 2 0

Top 2

Kuala Lumpur

Kenji Tsumura – U/R/B (3 Karoos, 2 Signets, 1 Terraformer; 17 Lands)
Osamu Fujita – G/R/b (1 Signet, 1 Utopia Sprawl, 1 Starfletcher; 16 Lands)

Torino

Nico Bohny – U/W/R (4 Karoos; 17 Lands)
Antoine Ruel – B/W/r (17 Lands)

Toronto

Jon Sonne – B/R/u (3 Karoos, 1 Signet; 17 Lands)
Antonino DeRosa – G/R/b/u (1 Karoo, 2 Signets 1 Wayfinder, 1 Starfletcher; 16 Lands)

Main Colors, Finalists:
Green Red Black Blue White
2 5 3 2 2
Minor Colors, Finalists:
Green Red Black Blue White
0 1 2 2 0

Winners

Kuala Lumpur

Kenji Tsumura – U/R/B (3 Karoos, 2 Signets, 1 Terraformer; 17 Lands)

Torino

Nico Bohny – U/W/R (4 Karoos; 17 Lands)

Toronto

Antonino DeRosa – G/R/b/u (1 Karoo, 2 Signets 1 Wayfinder, 1 Starfletcher; 16 Lands)

Main Colors, Winners:
Green Red Black Blue White
1 3 1 2 1
Minor Colors, Winners:
Green Red Black Blue White
0 0 1 1 0

That’s a lot of people playing Red, and it seems so far that Black is the official under-drafted color of Grand Prix Top 8s. Nobody splashes Green – you’re either Green or you’re not – so it seems that its general lack of removal spells continues to keep it as an unattractive option for dabblers while its assortment of big fat men keeps dedicated Green mages interested. After all, they have the cards you need when it comes to splashing properly, so they may not have the removal themselves but they sure can let you splash for it in whatever colors of removal come your way. It may not be pretty, but it worked out for at least some of the drafters in the Top 8.

Looking at it another way, let’s peer at how the colors compare when it comes to penetration through the Top 8:

Color (Major / Minor) In Top 8 Top 4 Finals Winners
Green (12/1) (5/1) (2/0) (1/0)
Red (15/4) (7/2) (5/1) (3/0)
Black (7/7) (6/4) (3/2) (1/1)
Blue (10/5) (4/2) (2/2) (2/1)
White (13/1) (7/0) (2/0) (1/0)

Simply put: Winners draft Red. (So did nineteen of the 24 players, so I guess that isn’t really a surprise.) Specifically, they use Red as one of their main colors, and likewise all three winning decks had Blue in them, two as a main color and one as a splash. Red and Blue were a “given” among the three winning decks, with White, Black, and Green also putting in one appearance each among the winning decks as a main color, and a second appearance for Black being dabbled in. All six finalists played Red as well, and a whopping five of the six finalists touched Black cards, three of them seriously… an amazing trend, given that Black is clearly under-drafted as a main color off the bat, but no really big surprise I guess since a large number of people dabbling in Black picked up a card or two here or there to supplement their strategy. Black was under-drafted as a main color but not disrespected outright; you have 19 Red mages, fifteen Blue, fourteen each for White and Black, and thirteen Green mages.

By those numbers, Blue and Green are under-represented in the Top 4, as less than half of their players advanced, while Black is over-represented, with greater than 50% of their players advancing. Red more or less broke even, with nine out of nineteen players advancing, and it is not until the cut between the semifinal round and the final round that Red really shows it’s special by only losing 33% of its players. Green loses 66%, Black an even 50%, Blue likewise only loses 33% of its players and White drops like a rock, losing a whopping 71% of its players in the cut between the semis and the final round. Black is a solid bet, and Green and White are poor bets… while Red and Blue seem very strong, and possessed of that special je ne sais quoi that it takes to make piles of money at a Grand Prix.

(Craig now hates me for all the tables, by the way. But here’s one more I thought might be interesting:)

Number of Karoos Per Player: Number of Signets Per Player: Number of Lands:
Top 8 — 39 / 24 (1.65 each) 26 / 24 (1.08 each) 16.25
Top 4 — 21 / 12 (1.75 each) 15 / 12 (1.25 each) 16.41
Finals — 11 / 6 (1.83 each) 6 / 6 (1 each) 16.66
Winners — 8 / 3 (2.66 each) 4 / 3 (1.33 each) 16.66

As you step up from round to round, the eliminated players are on average playing fewer mana sources than the players who advance. The average mana count of the quarterfinals was 17.33 sources, semifinals was 17.65, finals was 17.66 and the finals was a “perfect” 18 mana sources. Skimping on the lands doesn’t pay, if you want to win, perhaps because leaving a land out of the equation makes bounce-lands harder to play and can occasionally stall your development… and having one less land to work with makes the numbers all slightly worse when calculating the number of sources you need of each color. Bounceland use also steadily increased as you go higher into the tournament’s elimination rounds, and three Grand Prix tournaments running the same weekend just go to show that picking those bounce-lands as highly as you have to is a winning strategy. Mana consistency wins games these days, and nothing makes consistency quite as easy as the Karoos, and no other card does so as cheaply. That they also happen to provide something in the neighborhood of card advantage, or the bastard half-breed of card advantage with card quality advantage, by providing twice as much mana and twice as many colors for pretty much no cost at all. So pick your bounce-lands high… however special the card you are thinking of taking is, it can probably be replaced by another solid removal spell, decent trick, or great creature later in the pack or later in the draft. Bounce-lands are the only thing you will have a hard time finding in a particular pack, because there are fewer of them in the packs than there are tricks, men, and removal spells, so they are the scarce resource that needs to be taken highly if you want to see any at all.

If I wanted to be cute, I’d do an effective cost-benefit analysis of dollars won per bounceland drafted, but instead of hammering that point home mercilessly, I’ll simply conclude for the day. I’ve said everything I came to, and said it with numbers that show I’m seeing something happening out there in reality when I say “this is how it’s going on,” and not just stewing over things in my mind and saying “I think it’s like this…” After all, numbers don’t lie but writers do, and rather than blow long and involved theories about what is going on (a.k.a. lies) I’ll just let the numbers speak for themselves this time. When you pick at them and present them in just the right light, I think they get to the essence of what is going on deep-down in Ravnica-Guildpact-Dissension Draft.

Sean McKeown

“It doesn’t mean much, it doesn’t mean anything at all
The life I’ve left behind me is a cold one…
I’ve crossed the last line, from where I can return
Where every step I took in faith betrayed me…”
Sarah McLachlan, “Sweet Surrender”