Yawgmoth’s Whimsy #157: Luck in Drafts
Last weekend, I did two Coldsnap drafts. In the first, I had five Skreds, four Elves, six Snow Lands and four Auroch Herds into double Rimehorn… And I lost in the first round. I entered another 8-4 queue, and realized I didn’t really want to play about two seconds after the draft started. I rare-drafted like crazy, ended up with a very marginal pile, and split in the finals.
That got me to wondering — how much influence does luck play in drafting? So I performed a wide-scale experiment, taking several old draft decks both losing and winning, to see how much of a difference luck made… And the results were surprising.

What should I play at Worlds? I have been studying the Standard Metagame for quite some time, and I know that the best time to choose a deck, as far as being familiar with it is concerned, is as soon as possible. However, I also know that the metagame is a changeable and fickle thing, and therefore I knew I wasn’t going to decide on what deck I am going to play until roughly *checks watch* nnnnnow. But far as what I can expect to face at Worlds, the best indication is going to come from what has been played on Magic Online up until now… So let’s check out the Standard Premier Events Top 8 recap.