The folks over at MTGSalvation are talking about a rumored Wizards plan to introduce a new format to deal with reserve list issues. It would be an Eternal format that the company could support by reprinting cards when necessary. The format would include cards from Mercadian Masques forward, and sets would never rotate out. Let’s assume that such a format is created — what would that do to Legacy, and what Metagame might we expect?
First, let’s define this format. If we assume that the format would not allow any cards on the reserve list, we need to start with the blocks printed after the first reserve list was made. The first reserve list announcement stated that the reserve list applied only to rares printed before Mercadian Masques – anything printed in Masques or afterwards could be reprinted. Mercadian Masques was released on October 4, 1999. We know the all the Expert sets released since then would be in the format. These are:
Legal Expert Level Sets
Mercadian Masques, Nemesis, Prophecy
Invasion, Planeshift, Apocalypse
Odyssey, Torment, Judgment
Onslaught. Legions, Scourge
Mirrodin, Darksteel, Fifth Dawn
Champions, Betrayers and Saviors of Kamigawa
Ravnica: City of Guilds, Guildpact, Dissension
Coldsnap
Time Spiral, Planar Chaos, Future Sight,
Lorwyn, Morningtide
Shadowmoor, Eventide
Shards of Alara, Conflux, Alara Reborn
Zendikar, Worldwake, Rise of the Eldrazi
We would also have to determine what base sets would be playable in the new format. That question is trickier. Sixth Edition was released in April, 1999. Seventh Edition was released in April, 2001. Sixth Edition was in Standard when Masques was released, but it was also Standard legal during the last part of the Urza’s block. On the one hand, nothing in Sixth Edition is on the reserve list. On the other hand, if they want a firm date for the cut-off, they probably need to exclude 6E. However, Sixth Edition included the last reprints of some important cards, like Mystical Tutor, Enlightened Tutor and Vampiric Tutor, plus Armageddon, Serenity, Pyrotechnics, Pestilence, Doomsday, Goblin Recruiter, Chill and more. While I would love to see this set included, I suspect that the need for a firm date will mean that only sets that were released after October 1, 1999 will be in the format. I’m betting Sixth Edition won’t be legal, which would make me sad.
Legal Base Sets
Seventh Edition
Eighth Edition
Ninth Edition
Tenth Edition
Magic 2010
Magic 2011
I guess that Wizards could simply create a format that bans any cards on the reserve list, or bans any cards from sets with cards on the reserve list, but both those options seem really clunky. True, including any sets that do not have cards on the Reserve List would allow 4th and 5th Edition cards (including things like Necropotence), and allow Portal sets in, but that would have a real downside. It would enshrine the reserve list in the definition of the format. If Wizard’s is not 100% happy with the reserve list, and is thinking about looking at the reserve list again in a few years, then defining the format based on the reserve list seems like a bad plan. It would tend to enshrine the list even more formally. If this happens, I expect Wizards to use a fixed cut-off date.
If we assume a cut-off date of Masques and afterwards, the next question is to look at the subsets and special issues that Wizards has released, and see which might be legal. These include sets like Starter, Portal, and Duel Decks. Portal and Portal: Second Age were released well before Urza’s Saga, and would be excluded by any likely time deadline. Portal: Three Kingdoms was released in May, 1999, several months before Masques. If Wizards lets Sixth Edition in, Portal: Three Kingdoms may well get in as well. Personally, I suspect that the scarcity of Three Kingdoms is one more reason for Wizards to adopt the October 1, 1999 cutoff.
The Starter set was released in July, 1999, which would be before the likely cutoff. Starter 2000, as the name implies, would be after the cutoff. There are no tournament relevant cards available only in Starter 2000 (unless someone comes up with a way to break Royal Falcon).
The theory for creating a Masques-forward format is that Wizards could have a PTQ season using that format. Wizards has stated that it cannot have a Legacy or Vintage PTQ format, because there are simply not enough cards in all the world to let everyone participate. It isn’t just cost — there simply are not enough cards in the world to let every PTQ player have access to a deck. The print runs for those early sets were much, much smaller than the more recent sets. Plenty of Masques cards were printed, however, and that is true of every set since. That is one more reason to expect that wizards will use an October 1, 1999 cutoff — it excludes Portal: Three Kingdoms, which is in very, very short supply worldwide.
So, if Wizards does create such a format, what would the Metagame look like? I suspect that the Metagame would start with existing Legacy and classic Extended decks to the extent that they are not neutered by the removal of cards from sets outside the format. The format would likely evolve some additional decks, but I’ll start by looking at the decks we have, and see what changes impact them.
The biggest impact, of course, is the loss of the dual lands. The classic dual lands, when combined with the Onslaught and Zendikar fetchlands, allow decks to reliably and painlessly find their colors. It allows decks like Zoo to find all five types of basic lands within a couple turns. In theory, the Ravnica block duals can function in the same way, but the difference is that the Ravnica duals are either painful or slow. In practice, the 5 life or so that most decks spend to untap Ravnica duals is highly significant, and it is why some burn and aggro decks can succeed in a format with Ravnica when they could not, had the original duals been available.
Personally, I know that the dual lands had a lot of impact on my desire to play the formats. Back in the day, Extended was my favorite format, and Ingrid and I traveled extensively to play in PTQs and GPs. I lived through the first Extended rotation with no problem, and not even Trix could lessen my desire to play the format. Once the duals rotated, however, I lost a lot of interest in Extended. This season, I did not play in any PTQs, although I did judge at a few. I don’t know how typical that is, but if it is widespread at all, it is probably relevant.
Once upon a time, Wizards rotated several sets out of Extended, but exempted the dual lands. The format became Tempest forward, plus the ten duals. Had they been able to do that again — to create a new format with a new supply of dual lands — would have been so much better. I think the best analogy is the all foil Slivers decks. They are not selling — for good reason: they have too few interesting cards. If Wizards had been able to include a Foil Sliver Queen in the decks, on the other hand, they would be great.
Sigh.
The elimination of the Pre-Masques blocks also eliminate two more format-defining cards: Wasteland and Force of Will. Both of these cards are important in controlling combo decks, but in different ways. Both also impact their formats in many additional ways. The cards are more that staples, they make the format what it is.
Wasteland allows aggro decks to slow control and combo decks down a turn or two, which is often just enough time to get there. Wasteland can punish manabases that are too greedy, and stop specialty lands like Tabernacle, Academy Ruins and Volrath’s Stronghold. Since a Masques-forward format would be lacking both Wasteland and Price of Progress, it might be much more colorful. However, both Tectonic Edge and Ghost Quarter partly replace Wasteland, and Blood Moon will still exist, so some real checks remain. Wasteland is just a bit better / faster than the other options, but other cards could fill its role in the new format.
Nothing like Force of Will, however, remains in the format. It is (arguably) the best Counterspell ever printed. It is essentially free, and free is good. In Legacy, Mono-Blue decks like Fish play just two counterspells: Force of Will and Daze. Both can stop an opponent from doing something broken on turn 1. Daze is a bit easier to play around, and only works on the play. Force of Will just works. Without Force of Will, nothing in the format can prevent combos decks capable of turn 1 kills from doing their thing when they are on the play.
The whole idea of a Masques-forward format is just a rumor, at this point. However, such a format could, unlike Legacy, actually be used for PTQs in the future. The cards exist to support it — but a format with that many cards would certainly have lots of viable combo decks. Although many combos would embrace Force of Will, Force is also a very potent weapon against combo. If this format were actually part of Wizard’s planning, I could see them reprinting Force of Will, maybe even in M11.
Seriously.
Internet pundits can, will, and are writing whole articles about the pros and cons of reprinting Force of Will, and what it would do to various formats. We can also speculate about how Force of Will would interact with an artifact-heavy Mirrodin II block next fall. However, Force of Will is NOT on the Reserve list, and a format like Masques-forward really needs it. Putting it in M11 would make it Standard legal for just 15 months, if you wanted to get it back out quickly. You could even balance it by reprinting Red Elemental Blast, a card which is also fairly important to such a format, and also not in Masques or later sets.
Just saying.
I have no idea whether the rumor of the Masques-forward format is real, and the whole idea of reprinting Force of Will in M11 or M12 is pure speculation, but I could see that happening. I really could.
Let’s start by looking at the current crop of Legacy decks, and seeing what they will lose and what impact that might have on the archetypes. I’m not going to mention the dual lands again — just assume they are there. Pretty much every deck on the list loses some duals, to greater or lesser effect. I’m also not going to reiterate that most decks lose Wasteland and all blue decks lose Force of Will. (Probably.)
Let’s look at some archetypes.
Goblins (R/B) – David Sharfman, 1st Place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards lost: Goblin Lackey. Sideboard: Price of Progress, Pyrokinesis.
Prognosis: Not good. Goblins exists because it has two possible broken turn 1 plays — AEther Vial and Goblin Lackey. Both cards let you cheat creatures into play, but only the Lackey allows you to play a turn 2 Siege-gang Commander. The combination of the two one-drops let Goblins reliably do broken things. Without the Lackey, Goblins plays a lot more like a “fair” deck. Both Legacy and Extended are formats where broken things happen, and where “fair” decks play Tarmogoyf. Without the broken turn 1 plays, Goblins is just another fast weenie deck, and that may not be enough.
Assault Loam – Zac Wilson, 2nd Place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards lost: Mox Diamond, Crop Rotation, The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, Maze of Ith, Volrath’s Stronghold. Sideboard: Null Rod
Prognosis: Okay. The deck will have to evolve a bit. It loses the Crop Rotation toolbox, and the lands that provided a lot of the resiliency and control elements. However, the core Life from the Loam engine is still pretty much intact. The fact that Life from the Loam decks were Extended staples until the Onslaught cycling lands rotated out is evidence of that.
Merfolk – Michael Brady, 3rd Place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards lost: Force of Will. Sideboard: Back to Basics.
Prognosis: Uncertain. AEther Vial / Standstill with a Mutavault in play is a pretty good combination, even without Force of Will backup. The deck could still run some countermagic, even without Force. If blue decks of any kind are big, Fish can live off them, provided their matchup against the rest of the world isn’t too bad. Merfolk are going to be fast and synergistic in any case.
Counter-Top (Bant) – Julien de los Santos, 4th Place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards lost: Force of Will, Swords to Plowshares. Sideboard: Blue Elemental Blast
Prognosis: Should change but survive, unless Sensei’s Divining Top is banned or combo kills it. The deck is losing some of its best early defenses — Force, BEB, Swords. The biggest problem with the Bant colors is a lack of ways to fight fast combos. Traditionally, the best defenses are mana denial (e.g. Wasteland or Tectonic Edge), Force of Will or discard. A three-color deck will have problems fitting in colorless lands, and Bant decks can’t really run Thoughtseize.
The versions that run Progenitus are dead, though. Natural Order was from Visions, so it won’t be around in the new format.
Reanimator – John Cuvelier , 7th Place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards lost: Exhume, Reanimate, Show and Tell. Sideboard: Animate Dead, Perish
Prognosis: Gone — Dredge will do the same thing, only better. The only card similar to Reanimate left in the format is Life / Death. That works, but four copies of the main Reanimation spell are not the same as nine. The other options are cards like Zombify, which are far too expensive, or a flashbacked Dread Return. Dredge does Dread Return better than Reanimator, so I expect that anyone looking to yank creatures back from their graveyard will be playing that archetype, not classic Reanimator.
Counter-Top (Thopter Depths) Bant – AJ Sacher, 8th place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards lost: Moat, Force of Will, Swords to Plowshares, Enlightened Tutor, Back to Basics, Sylvan Library.
Prognosis: The archetype survives. This build is gone. This version used Enlightened Tutor and a host of one-ofs to plug holes. Not only are many of the singletons (like Moat) gone, but so is Enlightened Tutor. Thopter / Depths will obviously still be around, but I wonder if we will see Top in the new format. It’s not in Extended.
Mono Black Control – Taylor Reflowitz, 9th place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards Lost: Diabolic Edict, Hymn to Tourach, Sinkhole, Wasteland. Sideboard: Perish
Prognosis: Dead, at least in this form. MBC is losing almost all the tools it has to slow or stall other decks. It is losing the untargeted creature control, the good discard and the cheap land destruction. The replacements that are legal are far, far too slow. No one ever plays cards like Rain of Tears in Eternal formats, even though it doesn’t cost that much more than Sinkhole.
Dredge – Justin Cloke, 12th Place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Prognosis: Good. Dredge still works, even in the current Extended. In the new format, it gets Ichorid back, and even Entomb, if it wants that.
Mono Blue Control – 13th Place, Ryland Foster, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards lost: Powder Keg. Morphling, Rainbow Efreet, Back to Basics, Propaganda, Impulse, Force of Will. Sideboard: Hydroblast,
Prognosis: I didn’t even know this was still a deck. This feels like something lifted from Standard about a decade ago. Actually, this is not a bad archetype, especially with new Jace as an alternative win condition, but it requires a bunch of support from Saga block and beforehand. That support is gone.
White Weenie – Daniel Payne, 14th Place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards lost: Mother of Runes, Swords to Plowshares, Karakas, and Wasteland, of course. Sideboard: Enlightened Tutor and the enchantment toolbox
Prognosis: White Weenie will survive, but this version won’t. This build combines Mangara of Corondor and Karakas, but Karakas is gone. Likewise, Mother of Runes is not going to be legal, unless she gets reprinted sometime.
Eva Green (+W) – Eric Osyda, 16th Place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards Lost: Hymn to Tourach, Sinkhole, plus Wasteland and Bayou
Prognosis: Much like Mono-Black Control, I don’t see this being good enough without the early disruption. Back in the day, I played a lot of GB decks in Extended. They won on the basis of hand destruction and mana disruption. However, once they lost those, Rock decks stopped being good. I think GP: Vegas was the last major event won by a Rock deck. Dual lands were legal at GP: Vegas.
Ad Nauseam Tendrils – David Do Ahn, 2nd Place, Grand Prix: Madrid
Cards Lost: Lion’s Eye Diamond, Lotus Petal, Mystical Tutor, Ill-Gotten Gains.
Prognosis: Change is coming. ANT loses a lot of the really cheap cards, but Storm decks will clearly continue, unless Wizards bans Mind’s Desire in the format. Those decks may still use Tendrils, but not Ad Nauseam.
Enchantress – George FitzGerald, 19th Place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards Lost: Argothian Enchantress, Elephant Grass, Moat, City of Solitude, Enlightened Tutor, Concordant Crossroads, Serra’s Sanctum
Prognosis: Dead. I have been playing Enchantress for 12 years now. The only playable enchantresses come from Argothia. Without Argothian Enchantress, the deck just does not work.
Zoo – Richard Bland, 3rd Place, Grand Prix: Madrid
Cards Lost: Sylvan Library, Chain Lightning
Prognosis: Good. Zoo loses Sylvan Library. Mirri’s Guile, which is occasionally seen Zoo decks online, is also out. Zoo can live without those effects. Zoo also loses a burn spell, but it can always revert to Tribal Flames. Zoo did just fine in Extended, so it should do fine in Masques-forward.
Life – Keith McLaughlin, 25th Place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards Lost: Nomads en-Kor, Diamond Valley. Sideboard: those two, plus Karakas
Prognosis: Probably dead (not that it was all that good in Legacy now.) The deck runs off the combo of targeting a Cleric whose toughness rises when pumped, so losing the redundancy of eight such clerics probably makes the deck too erratic.
43 Land Blue – Chris Woltereck, First place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards Lost: Mox Diamond, Wasteland, The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, Manabond, Intuition (and Gamble), Glacial Chasm, Maze of Ith, Mishra’s Factory Sideboard: Smokestack, Karakas, Zuran Orb,
Prognosis: Dead. Manabond is the driver, and the specialty lands are what makes this work. A Life from the Loam / Onslaught cycling lands deck will reappear, but it won’t be anything like this.
Charbelcher – Cedric Phillips, 11th place, StarCityGames.com Legacy Open
Cards Lost: Lion’s Eye Diamond, Lotus Petal, Elvish Spirit Guide
Prognosis: Unlikely. That is a lot of fast mana to lose, and LED is a great means of activating the Goblin Charbelcher. It is possible that this could still be the kill spell in some combo deck, but I suspect that better options exist. However, pulling the fast mana has not always been the best way to cripple combos in the past, (*cough* Trix *cough*) so maybe this can survive.
Closing out the list, I would like to note that Imperial Painter decks keep Painter’s Servant, but lose both imperial Recruiter and Grindstone, not to mention both REB and Pyroblast. Straight burn decks (which I have not seen in the SCG Legacy Open lists for a long time, lose Fireblast, which should kill the archetype if it weren’t already dead. Stax decks lose Smokestack.
Wrapping Up
I just got my most recent MTGO Stats summary email. At the bottom was a list of the ten most commonly played cards in Legacy — at least Legacy on MTGO. The cards, and their prognosis, are:
1) Brainstorm – Safe, last printed in Masques.
2) Wasteland — Gone, unless they reprint it.
3) Tarmogoyf — Safe, although a bit pricy. So glad I bought mine long ago.
4) Force of Will — Gone. This really needs to be reprinted.
5) Swords to Plowshares — Gone. Could this be reprinted in an M1X set?
6) AEther Vial — Safe, from Mirrodin.
7) Relic of Progenitus — Fine, still Standard legal.
8) Polluted Delta — Okay, as are all the fetchlands.
9) Thoughtseize — Fine. Ca$h$ieze lives on.
10) Daze — Safe. It is in Masques block.
So, of the top 10 cards played in Legacy, three would be excluded from a new, Masques-forward format. Wasteland, Force of Will and Swords to Plowshares were not rares when first printed, and are not on the reserve list. Wizards could reprint them without violating the Reserve List. But would they do so?
I cannot see Wasteland being reprinted, given that we have some functional-yet-not-as-unfun reprints available. I could almost see Swords being reprinted, but not in the same Standard as Path to Exile and Oust, so maybe in M12 — but we have substitutes that are nearly as good. That leaves Force of Will, for which there is no substitute. For a long time, Force has been called the glue that holds Legacy / Vintage together, and I really think that this format needs it too. I would be surprised to see it in Scars of Mirrodin, because I think that set was finalized before the Reserve list decision, but I would not be shocked to see it in one of the Scars expansions, or in M12.
Just speculating, of course.
PRJ
“one million words” on MTGO.