I have no idea what to do! This isn’t the way anyone in a position of educator should begin an article centering around their specialized field, but it’s
the case for this week. Standard featuring Fate Reforged has shaken things up so much that all the cards are barely distinguishable. Every deck feels as
good as it does bad. No one deck has proven to be better than the field, and every top 8 has almost that many different archetypes. The format is in chaos,
and there are no Pack Rats or Mutavaults to give us a sense of stagnation.
The reason for my ignorance is not due to a lack of preparation. Magic Online has been my home inside my home for the past week. I’ve played almost every
deck in the format and come to one very strong conclusion: There is no best deck. There is no way to get a deck advantage right now. Metagaming is my
specialty, yet it will not do much for me this weekend. The format is just too volatile for any one deck to be the best choice. There are far too many
variables to come to any conclusion to which decks will over perform.
To simplify this anomaly we have to find out why the format is so middling. Let’s take a look at some of the most popular archetypes and try to extrapolate
as much information as we can.
Creatures (1)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (28)
Spells (27)
Creatures (31)
- 4 Elvish Mystic
- 4 Polukranos, World Eater
- 4 Sylvan Caryatid
- 1 Boon Satyr
- 4 Voyaging Satyr
- 4 Courser of Kruphix
- 4 Eidolon of Blossoms
- 2 Genesis Hydra
- 4 Whisperwood Elemental
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (23)
Spells (4)
Creatures (16)
Lands (24)
Spells (20)
Creatures (17)
- 4 Stormbreath Dragon
- 2 Brimaz, King of Oreskos
- 4 Goblin Rabblemaster
- 2 Ashcloud Phoenix
- 4 Seeker of the Way
- 1 Soulfire Grand Master
Lands (24)
Spells (19)
Sideboard
Creatures (16)
Lands (20)
Spells (24)
- 4 Gods Willing
- 3 Ordeal of Heliod
- 4 Ordeal of Thassa
- 2 Aqueous Form
- 1 Triton Tactics
- 2 Stratus Walk
- 3 Ajani's Presence
- 4 Defiant Strike
- 1 Feat of Resistance
Sideboard
Creatures (20)
- 3 Sylvan Caryatid
- 4 Fleecemane Lion
- 2 Brimaz, King of Oreskos
- 4 Courser of Kruphix
- 2 Anafenza, the Foremost
- 4 Siege Rhino
- 1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (24)
Spells (13)
Creatures (9)
Planeswalkers (5)
Lands (26)
Spells (20)
These seven decks represent the bulk of the metagame and are arguably better versions of the other decks in the field. One shocking revelation comes out of
looking at these seven decks all clumped together: Abzan Midrange is the only deck that doesn’t have a linear gameplan. The other six decks all have a
specific gameplan in mind and have very few ways to deviate from that path.
The format went wide.
I always like to think of Standard as this beautifully cyclical format where nothing is certain for too long. This holds true right now, since the days of
midrange Whip of Erebos decks seem to have been swept away with the rebirth of Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. The decline of Whip decks has given new life to the
format, which allows everyone to play linear strategies once again without feeling the wrath of Erebos’ favorite weapon.
This breath of fresh air doesn’t do much for someone like me though. I have no ties to any specific archetype, but I do always want to play the “best
deck.” Currently, I don’t have an answer for that mystery. I do have a good theory on how to attack a format like this though.
It just isn’t as easy as “here’s a decklist.”
There is something I need to preface before going into this section. These rules are designed to help those out there that are playing decks featuring
creatures and removal spells against creatures and removal spells. Those who have decided to spin the wheel with U/B Control or Green Devotion need not
continue. You have sealed your fate with the most linear of strategies. You will make decisions and will be playing good decks, but you won’t need the
information I will be bestowing onto the others. You just keep casting or killing all the creatures!
Play Cards With a Purpose
Last week, Martin Juza played an interesting version of Jeskai Aggro that featured Treasure Cruise over Dig Through Time. We talked extensively about
Standard leading up to Grand Prix Seville, and I continuously expressed my displeasure in the idea of doing this. My opinion was Treasure Cruise was an
inferior card advantage engine in a deck like this. His opinion was he wanted to play a R/W Aggro deck that went a little bit bigger than the other
versions of R/W Aggro. He wasn’t playing the deck because he thought Jeskai Aggro was a good choice. He was simply playing the trump to R/W Aggro. He
played Treasure Cruise, since it was faster and leaner than Dig Through Time. It might not win him as many games against other matchups, but it would be a
significant upgrade to Dig Through Time against a deck like R/W where every mana is important.
Due to how linear this format has become, the cards you choose to play need to have a purpose. If you stumble, you die. There isn’t enough time to just
play cards because they are flexible in multiple situations. Each card should have a specific task and have replacements in the sideboard for when they’re
poorly positioned.
Goblin Rabblemaster is the prime example of this. I can’t think of a better card to be in my deck when on the play, but I sure will have a sideboard plan
to take them out against most decks on the draw. They just can’t hold themselves up as well on the draw. Every deck in the format has a plan to deal with
Goblin Rabblemaster, but those plans shine brightest when they make the first action. This makes the card a huge liability on the draw, yet I see so many
people not have enough resources in the sideboard to be able to take the goblin out on the draw.
This comes from being forced to have sideboards filled with additional removal spells. I’m not saying this is a bad thing, but it definitely is something
to be aware of. Cards like Erase, Glare of Heresy, Valorous Stance, and Anger of the Gods are great additions to every R/W-based sideboard, but they are in
such high numbers that most lists aren’t allowed to take out enough bad cards. I, for one, will not be playing a Goblin Rabblemaster deck this weekend, but
I would definitely consider having a contingency plan for when you win games with Rabblemaster decks.
Go Slightly Bigger
To continue with the Martin Juza love, this is exactly what he did this past weekend. He built his deck to be slightly bigger than his opponent’s deck. The
phrase “go bigger” does not always mean play higher converted mana cost cards. This term describes the idea that in a mirror match you will want to be
slightly more controlling in order to gain an advantage. Both players have access to the same cards, so the best way to break that parity is to have
“mirror-breakers” or cards that they can’t answer that give you an advantage. Treasure Cruise was Martin’s mirror-breaker this past weekend. Elspeth, Sun’s
Champion was Brian Braun-Duin’s when he was playing Abzan Aggro. Hordeling Outburst was mine for R/W at Pro Tour Khans of Tarir. These cards are now stock
in these lists, but it took someone to find them.
Due to the nature of this format being so linear, it is important to understand how each deck ticks and how to exploit them. We all know that controlling
them only works out of a dedicated control deck, but having cards that are slightly more powerful can help out in these situations. You just have to figure
out what those are.
Don’t Be Too Reactive
The more I play Standard, the more I realize this format is less like sophisticated gentlemen in a battle of wits and more like a backyard brawl with two
kids beating the crap out of each other with socks filled with batteries. I constantly had to make sure I wasn’t watching the National Rock’em Sock’em
Robots Championships this past weekend while watching coverage. Most games evolved with players playing out threats and exhausting their opponents until
both players were living off the top of their decks. The player to find the biggest thing first often took over the game.
What this taught me was that there is a very interesting dance of making sure you aren’t going to die while also preserving a removal spell for cards like
Whisperwood Elemental and Stormbreath Dragon. Once a game devolves to a top deck war, it can play out in a multitude of ways, but often times someone draws
a threat that will eventually have to be dealt with. Even something as inconspicuous as a Seeker of the Way will eventually win the game. Both players know
this, which makes it a savory target for something like Murderous Cut or Stoke the Flames. The only issue at hand is if that card will be needed down the
line. There really isn’t a cut and dry answer for this predicament. Sometimes killing the tiny creature is correct and sometimes it’s not, but the
conclusion is almost always results based (well, for all of us that aren’t math wizards like Frank Karsten). Risk versus reward steps into this equation,
and often times the losses will feel worse than the wins feel good.
The way to alleviate the stress of falling into these situations is rather convoluted but effective. Let’s look at the R/W Aggro mirror for a great
example. This deck is centered around getting on the board with early creatures, interacting with an opponent, and then coming over the top of them with
Stormbreath Dragon. This strategy isn’t as one-dimensional as I am making it out to be, but on the surface it plays out this way. So what happens in a
mirror match? Well the player on the play will have the first opportunity to get onto the board. By now we all know that holding up Lightning Strike isn’t
always a sure thing since both decks have access to Hordeling Outburst, so the player on the draw is always going to be slightly more scared of dying than
the player on the play. Cards like Anger of the Gods are great for mirror match situations so that they never fall too far behind, but that is just
scratching the surface.
Both players have the same gameplan of finishing the game off with Stormbreath Dragon, yet both players have answers to that card. Elspeth, Sun’s Champion
often becomes the trump to the matchup, but she tends to be rather slow and clunky at times. So what should these players do to maximize their chance of
winning?
Person on the play:
The person on the play’s main goal in the game is to press their advantage. Cards like Goblin Rabblemaster and Stormbreath Dragon can sneak in chunks of
damage which will make it easier for that player to either burn the opponent out or force them to play defensively, giving them more topdecks to win. This
player should not dilute their deck with a ton of reactive cards, but instead make sure they have access to as many aggressive spells as possible. The
worst thing that could happen for this player is to not have enough ways to present pressure and become down a card in a mirror match filled with burn
spells.
Person on the draw:
This player is under a much different set of restrictions. They are the one forced to react to the opponent. Cards like Seeker of the Way, Goblin
Rabblemaster, and Hordeling Outburst become defensive spells in the earlygame with the main objective to produce mana for Stoke the Flames. Stormbreath
Dragon is still one of the more exciting cards in the matchup, but often times it will not be an optimal five-drop. There will be many games where the
player on the draw isn’t allowed to play their Dragon due to having to deal with their opponent’s Dragon, fear of Elspeth, Sun’s Champion, or Stoke the
Flames losing them a significant amount of tempo.
With all of this in mind, this player also has to have a threat density that will allow them to take over a game. Too much removal will force them into
exhausting some of it on low priority creatures, which could leave them vulnerable to the heavy hitters. So what is this player to do?
Well for starters, they should consider trimming on a land or two. Sideboarding in and out lands is something many of the best players in the world do
constantly, yet it sounds like a myth to many of the players I talk to. “How could you ever sideboard out a land?” is often the response I get from people
when they ask me questions, but that is the truth. Too many lands alongside removal spells is the easiest way to lose on the play or draw. Both
decks in this matchup will be ready for a slew of creatures and removal, which will slow the game down significantly. The player on the draw will most
likely not be able to slam a turn 5 dragon, making the usual land count of 24 unnecessary. Trim on the top end, and trim on lands. This will allow the
player on the draw to have a more spell-dense deck that is allowed to be as reactive as they want it to be.
That’s pretty much all I have learned over the course of my first week back into Standard. I wish I had more information for you wonderful guys and gals,
but that just isn’t the format we are living in. Hopefully I find a good deck for this weekend, but I wouldn’t be surprised if I play one of the decks that
made the finals of Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. This format is just so wide open that I wouldn’t even suggest switching to a new deck if I had one. Play what
you know, and play cards with a purpose.