Okay. Not so fast.
It’s true, if one were to look at the PTQ results for the last season, you wouldn’t see much in the way of Elves winning. But that can never be the full extent of the story for a deck like Elves.
Elves, in a way, is much like Dredge was during the last Extended season. There were cards you could play that would absolutely make it hell for your Dredge opponent, but if you didn’t play them, they could stomp all over you.
Wait, actually the better analogy is probably Storm. Storm would be one of those decks that could be dashed with any degree of effort, and yet, as it fell more and more off of the radar, the more potent it could be as a deck choice, towering over the field that, frankly, simply wasn’t prepared for it. The moment that the field shifted back, however, it found itself struggling to convert.
This is one of the reasons that Elves found itself at the top of the field in Berlin. Simply put, a ton of people weren’t prepared for it. Some people (even surprisingly talented, in the know people) just didn’t take the deck seriously. Other people didn’t know that it existed. Still others simply misjudged the threat.
What we had in Berlin, then, was a near-repeat of Pro Tour: Kobe, but instead of the anti-“Big Deck” Deck being the overwhelming entrant and winner (Red), it was the actual “Big Deck.” Give Extended a few more weeks, and I’m sure it would have been a field awash in Spellstutter Sprites. As it was, instead it was a field of Nettle Sentinels at the top.
Storm itself was held down by Elves at that event because, simply, Elves did what Storm did, but better. It was faster. It was more consistent. It was more resilient. Hell, it could even be disrupted out of being a combo deck, and still win. On top of that, in the head-to-head, it was better at disrupting its opponent. Remand looks pretty silly to a Glimpse or Symbiote. Thoughtseize, on the other hand, looks pretty impressive, regardless of anything else.
In the current metagame, it is no surprise, then, that Lino Burgold was able to take an Elf deck all the way to the championship. As people turned away their hate for combo players (particularly Elf players), in favor of fighting against more conventional control strategies (like Wizards) or aggro strategies (like Zoo), Storm and Elves can benefit, but Elves benefits all the more.
Lino Burgold’s Elf deck looks like this:
3 Forest
3 Gilt-Leaf Palace
2 Horizon Canopy
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Pendelhaven
1 Temple Garden
3 Windswept Heath
3 Wooded Foothills
4 Birchlore Rangers
4 Elvish Visionary
4 Heritage Druid
4 Llanowar Elves
1 Mirror Entity
4 Nettle Sentinel
1 Regal Force
1 Viridian Shaman
4 Wirewood Hivemaster
4 Wirewood Symbiote
4 Chord of Calling
4 Glimpse of Nature
3 Summoner’s Pact
1 Thoughtseize
Sideboard:
2 Forge[/author]-Tender”]Burrenton [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]-Tender
1 Ethersworn Canonist
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Imperious Perfect
1 Orzhov Pontiff
2 Proclamation of Rebirth
3 Thoughtseize
2 Umezawa’s Jitte
2 Viridian Shaman
Running the Hivemaster/Chord of Calling plan, it isn’t going for the brute-force speed that champion LSV would run in Berlin. The Hivemaster plan is more resilient in the face of anti-combo hate, even as it is less purely fast. What it gets out of this, however, is a real strength in the face of counter-based control. Things can surely go badly for the Elf player, of course. A fast flier putting on an Umezawa’s Jitte is sure to ruin the day for the evil elvish villains. Excepting a Jitte, though, the deck can easily overrun a control player, as it did when Madison’s Gaudenis Vidiguris faced off against the champ in their first game of the finals. Here, a single resolved Chord and a pair of dorks allowed Burgold to simply attack for victory with Mirror Entity making it decisive. Often, it can just as easily be a Hivemaster making shenanigans happen, so long as no Explosives come to ruin the party.
What does the Elf menace mean for the rest of the metagame?
As with any major victory, you can definitely expect an uptick in people playing an archetype. In many ways, Burgold is suggesting to us that we all review those week one and two PTQ decks. These were the decks that succeeded directly out of the Elf menace of the beginning of the season. While the newest decks have been honed-upon-honed to take each other out, for those of you who have read my old article, “Game Theory — The Marketplace,” you know that this is a movement for those decks from “Level One” positions further into “Level Two” positions; simply put, they are getting better at beating the sophisticated decks that they expect to see in the metagame, but often get worse at simply beating a deck that is outside of the Level One position that they know, thus blindsiding them to a deck like Elves, which they might not actually have cards for.
Practically, what this means is that decks like Owen Turtenwald Wizards deck, which sported two Cryptic Commands, are going to be the likely “top end” of control decks, unlike the decks that have started appear, sporting fully four Cryptic Command. These decks, generally speaking, simply cannot hold their own against Elves.
Now, this is not to say that Elves will be omnipresent. What it is to say is that they will increase in popularity. The deck has been fully vetted; we know that the deck can win in this metagame. As such, people who want to win who’ve enjoyed Elves will continue to play it. Whenever you get an upswell of players playing a deck that is actually good, it doesn’t matter that there aren’t very many of them, it matters that they are likely to rise to the top. That means that if you are rising to the top, the odds are, you’re going to see them.
This probably bodes poorly for Bant decks, in addition to the other combo decks. Bant’s weapons against combo are largely its weak counters plus (in the case of Elves) Umezawa’s Jitte. The rest of a Bant deck is particularly decently placed in a world where it might be fighting aggressive decks. It can even be built to place itself as the aggro-control deck in opposition to a control deck. But trying to do all of it probably is beyond the means for a Bant deck.
If we’re just looking towards the early PTQ’s for guidance, here is a quick list of cards that are probably going to see more play, among winning decks:
– Chrome Mox
– Darkblast
– Glen Elendra Archmage
– Shadow Guildmage
– Seal of Fire
– Spellstutter Sprite
– Umezawa’s Jitte
Now, obviously, a ton of these already see play. The thing I expect to see, however, is that these will see more play, among successful decks.
Other Thoughts
It’s been an exciting few weeks for me, with regards to Magic. While I had a major setback (my computer is currently dead and gone, and with it a crap-ton of stuff that I haven’t backed up), it’s exciting to see people that I like a lot getting some notice. Cedric Phillips fantastic finish at the Pro Tour made me smile really brightly. Similarly, it’s awesome to see my friend and deck collaborator Brian Kowal getting some time in the spotlight, and now it is similarly exciting to see my long-time playtest partner and friend Gaudenis Vidugiris make his second appearance at the finals of a Grand Prix. Way to go, guys!
I’d also definitely like to thank the people who have sent me e-mail about playing my decks to PTQ Top 8s. While I haven’t heard from any success stories (just four PTQ top 8s with Sullivan Red, and three with Sullivan Stompy), it’s exciting to hear about it, especially given how few people are probably playing the decks, overall. Hopefully one of you can qualify with one of the decks; I think both would be solid choices in the current metagame, provided you understand how to play them.
Stompy and Ponza are both unusual archetypes in many ways, mostly because of the element of pacing. Stompy, generally, is a deck that has very limited reach with regards to any spells that it has. The damage it is going to dish out, one can see before it hits. Back in the day, Rogue Elephant hit really damn hard, but it took a certain kind of genius (thank you, Brian Kowal) to make its hit a surprise (thanks to Concordant Crossroads, at the time). When you’re looking to bash someone in the face, the kind of pacing you’re doing is very different than the kind of pacing you’re doing when you can use a Tribal Flames to finish the job. Understanding how much to unload onto the table, and how to pace your spells takes practice, exacerbated by the fact that there are really, really diverse control opponents you might be playing against. Ponza, on the other hand, often has reach, but there is always the question of when to play what. A Zoo deck like Adam Prosak, for example, has a clear order of operations: drop the threat, then blow up the land. For a Ponza deck, though, that might actually be the improper order. Unfortunately, there is no guide to tell you exactly when to do what; you actually just have to feel it out, and make the right call at the right moment. Sometimes, this can be excruciatingly difficult, but often, in these difficult games, you can find the exact right path to victory, if you have the experience.
In either case, these aren’t decks I’d take into a tournament cold, unless you’re just hoping to get lucky.
On another front in the game of Magic, I thought I’d wade in, a little bit, to Standard.
As many people already know, I’m sure, I’m kinda in love with Boat Brew. It deeply pleased me to see it as one of the top performing archetypes at the event, despite people’s theoretical preparedness for it — kudos to Brian Kowal, John Treviranus, and Pierre Canali, among others, for their work on the deck. My own build was closer to BK’s then the other successful decks from the “Weighted Standard Top 8,” but still not nearly as radical as he built it. His decklist, I have to say, is a leap from where I would have built it, but I am deeply impressed with his decision-making process, particularly his anticipation of the power of Volcanic Fallout in the format.
For my part, I wish I could have helped the Madison crew more before the event. Even in the days leading up to the Pro Tour, Gaudenis Vidugiris, BK, and Sam Black were still working on settling on what they might play. I know that BK and Sam both made choices that worked out beautifully for them, but it would have been nice to supply Gau with something. Alas, I got to the party too late; real life kept me from being able to finish up the decks and testing I was working on.
In the aftermath, though, I have come to at least one of the decks that I like. It’s in one of my favorite colors, Red (not in my other favorite colors, Blue, Green, or Black). In many ways, it’s much like Marijn Lybaert Blightning Beatdown deck. A part of me, however, will always feel underwhelmed by multi-color decks with burn. It’s not just a purity thing. It just feels like there are so many games that you can capitalize on simply because your opponent is operating at just a tick slower than you, and your single color grants you some advantages that aren’t available for many opponents in this rainbow-snowcone Standard we live in.
Creatures (23)
- 4 Mogg Fanatic
- 4 Ashenmoor Gouger
- 4 Boggart Ram-Gang
- 4 Figure of Destiny
- 3 Stigma Lasher
- 4 Hellspark Elemental
Lands (25)
Spells (12)
This deck was largely informed by two elements: wanting to exploit the power of Volcanic Fallout and Hellspark Elemental, and recognizing the strength the Wall of Reverence represents. To my mind, Standard was going to be about two things: Five-Color Control decks of various stripes, and decks against whom a Fallout would probably be a huge beating.
Stigma Lasher was a card that came into the deck with Wall-based control in mind. Going toe-to-toe with a Wall of Reverence was something that the Lasher could do, but more importantly, it could get in under the Wall. This still left Plumeveil as a potentially problematic card, but even there, Stigma Lasher’s ability would at least have some lasting effect; a 2/2 is far less scary than a 4/4.
I’d almost cut out Mogg Fanatic, but in the end, I came to the conclusion that a one-drop removal spell was necessary, and that only running Figure as an early critter was not sufficient. Mogg Fanatic hit up both ends of the equation, in addition to being a solid creature against any number of threats.
What the deck ends up being is a build that can simply reach up over a number of defensive measures and kill a controlling player, and a deck that can greatly affect a race by killing nearly everything of note on the opposing aggressive player’s side. The exciting thing is that it can do this quite consistently.
Like Blightning-Aggro, it consistently provides threats. The trade-off is essentially Blightning against Ghitu Encampment. Both decks are otherwise, essentially, the same in the first game. Blightning provides another angle of attack, but often feels underwhelming against decks that aren’t already on the ropes. Ghitu Encampment is vulnerable to instant critter kill, but can provide the final points of damage in many matchups, if used judiciously.
Personally, with decks that are still, fundamentally, quite close, I prefer to go with mana consistency, and let your opponent be the one who is potentially stumbling.
My tentative sideboard would probably be something like this:
1 Stigma Lasher
2 Everlasting Torment
2 Wild Ricochet
2 Banefire
4 Lash Out
4 Unwilling Recruit
This still needs some work, if you ask me, though the main feels smooth…
I’ll see you over the next few weeks, as I try to convert one of the few remaining PTQs into a win, instead of just a near miss.
Until next week…