The alarm tone from my Blackberry ripped into my ear. I rolled over to snatch my Blackberry off the nightstand and clicked my press-wheel; the tone silenced. I nestled back into bed, but was restless, so I opened my Twitter app.
I opened TweetDeck, and walked into a warzone. The Magic world was entering a full-scale Code Red.
“New Extended changes?” I asked, intrigued. I dug through the rubble to find a link to the official announcement. I had to read the announcement several times before I fully understood its implication —Â and once it sank in, I was stunned, excited, and, to be honest, a little pissed.
I just bought two collections that contained a good amount of what would once have been considered Extended staples. Now, I flipped through my binders to assess the damage; my thirteen Tarmogoyfs mocked me from their plastic pages.
I search my entire collection for staples that would rotate after Pro Tour: Amsterdam. I pulled out the Dark Confidants, the Tarmogoyf, all my shocklands, and even the Dark Depths. Then I listed them for sale. After that was done, I searched my collection again for all the cards that were good during Lorwyn Block Standard. I put them all on a pile on my desk, and started to wonder what the new Extended would hold.
Everyone’s first guess was that Fae would take over the world again. I was skeptical; I always am. I have a deep-seated need to hate popular opinion. Part of what helps me to see trends is my knack for analyzing popular option and testing it for truth. It wasn’t long before people were asking me directly, “What should I buy?”
I get this question a lot. It’s tied to the concept of “Speculation,” which has become a buzz word among Magic financial columnist. I don’t believe in speculation. I will even say that the idea of speculation can be harmful to building your collection and your card equity.
Speculation is attractive to most people because it promises a big reward for a small investment —Â but I hate this promise. I have always believed that there is no such thing as “something for nothing.” If such a thing exists, then it’s not for me; I would rather work for my accomplishments. After all, it’s the work that makes me a better trader, a better player, and a better person.
The other thing that I don’t like about speculation is that it cultivates this idea that there is financial tech hidden in the depths of card pools, and that there are gatekeepers who hold the keys to unlock this tech. The part that most people seem to miss is that speculation, if true to its definition, is purely conjecture. How could my guess be better than yours?
Let’s say that both you and I were going to guess what number a 20-sided die would roll. Would you value my guess over your own?
Now, I am talking about “speculation” in the purest sense here —Â as if I was to say, “You should buy Lullmage Mentor, it’s going to be huge!” then there is no data to support this claim. If there was data, then we couldn’t call it speculation, could we?
Once the demand for a card starts to materialize, then we are simply responding to demand, not speculating. There is no magic (or Magic!) formula for this type of investing; you simply need to know where to look for the data. As traders, we have decklists, Twitter, and the trade tables. Dealers, on the other hand, have real-time sales data (which you also have access to as a Premium member, but never mind that for now). This helps dealers to spot trends faster and respond to demand better —Â and as a trader, you can have something similar if your trade radius is large enough.
The key is getting the relevant data. Once you have data to support a speculative claim, then it’s perfectly acceptable to invest in it. This is why I would rather research than speculate.
It’s important that you understand the different types of speculation. Until now, I’ve been talking about speculation as an investment strategy but I haven’t explored speculation as a mental exercise, which is perfectly acceptable. There are times when we should speculate mentally, such as when a new set is released.
When a new set comes out, all that we have is speculation. The new cards have not been played in any decks —Â so the only baseline that we can use to judge them by is cards from the past that are similar. For every new set, I think about which cards will be in demand, but I don’t invest in any of them until I can match that with data.
For example, when Leyline of Sanctity was spoiled, I immediately saw a need for it; in other words, I realized that it was a good card. I added it to the list of M11 cards that I was watching, but that’s all I did. As the set started to circulate, different people were talking about the card but it wasn’t on the radar of the typical player. At Grand Prix: Columbus, the card was showing up in sideboards and people at the trade tables were asking me for it. That’s when I flipped the switch from “mental speculation” to “stocking the card.”
The same is true when a new format emerges. We should start thinking about which cards we think will be in demand.
We now have the perfect opportunity to see the difference between research versus speculation with this new Extended format. For months, we’ve all been thinking about the cards that might make it into the new Extended format. Some of you, like me, looked to the past and found cards from Lorwyn Block Standard that could be good candidates… But until now, we had no data to validate our thoughts. With the Top 8 Decklists of PT: Amsterdam, we finally have a hint of what’s to come. Today we don’t need to speculate —Â we are going to go through the deck lists for relevant cards to stock!
One way to gain an edge over other traders is to be better stocked then they are. This is something that I focus on in my local area. It gives me the opportunity to gain value. This list of cards will help you prepare your binder for the coming Extended season. I am not saying that all these cards will go up in value but there will be a demand for them and they will give you opportunities to gain value. So let’s dive into the decks!
Doran Decks
It doesn’t surprise me that Doran was a top performer in Amsterdam. I was watching an interview with Zvi, and he said that his deckbuilding always starts with the mana base —Â and Doran has one of the best lands in the format in the form of Murmuring Bosk.
Knight of the Reliquary
This card sees play in every format except Vintage. It’s a solid investment for the new Extended, and a staple in the Doran deck.
Thoughtseize
This is another card that sees a lot of cross-format play, having become a staple in Extended, Legacy and Vintage. This card gives decks like Doran a strong game against combo decks.
Maelstrom Pulse
This was also in the Jund deck of the Top 8. I expect that a lot of Standard players will be looking to port their Jund builds into Extended —Â which will keep the price from hitting rock-bottom when it cycles out of Standard.
Doran, the Siege Tower
I don’t expect this to jump to high in price because of its narrow application. The other three cards listed here have application in other deck styles and even other formats; Doran doesn’t have that kind of flexibility. I would still encourage you to pick them up so that you can have them in stock, though.
White Weenie Decks
Legendary Kai Budde piloted a White Weenie deck into the Top 8. The most surprising thing about this deck is not what is in it, but instead what’s not in it. You might notice that cards like Windbrisk Heights and Elspeth, Knight-Errant were not invited to the party.
Ethersworn Canonist
This card sees play in Legacy and Vintage, but typically as a sideboard card. The Extended format in Amsterdam was so saturated with Combo decks that this card actually made it into the main deck.
Figure of Destiny
This, combined with Student of Warfare, do all the heavy-hitting in this deck. In the past, Figure of Destiny has been part of the creature suite in mono-red decks. Keep in mind that this was a promo card and that there are more on the market than a typical Eventide rare. If you have the chance, always get the non-promo over the promo; it’s typically worth more.
Knight of the White Orchid
This sees play in Legacy in a U/W Tempo deck. It is also used in the U/W Tap-out decks in Standard. I’ve never had a problem moving these when they are in my binder, and now the demand for them will rise.
Student of Warfare
This is in the pre-constructed deck for Rise of the Eldrazi; it was even a foil. Consider this when picking these up, and don’t value them too highly.
Honor of the Pure
This card has a narrow application, but it’s key for White Weenie. It was the buy-a-box promo for M10, and reprinted in M11, so these are pretty cheap these days.
Ranger of Eos
This is the first time that it’s showed up in the new Extended season, but I doubt that it will be the last. This is one of the few cards that I think has a lot of room to grow. I would make these a priority pick-up. They have applications in both Zoo and Combo Elves.
Control Variant Decks
There were two Control decks in the Top 8, and both were based on Mystical Teachings. This will be cycling out of Extended soon, so the archetype won’t exist in the format, but control decks may well use some of the same cards.
Cryptic Command
This card will be a staple in most Blue-based Control decks. You can see it in the Marijn Lybaert Merfolk deck, and you can also see it in Conley Woods‘ Bant deck (which didn’t Top 8, but he did well with it).
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
This card needs no introduction. Toward the end of the last Extended season, people were running Mystical Teachings-style decks with Jace instead of Mystical Teachings. This may be the direction that these decks will start to take.
I could write a paragraph on the other archetypes that Jace will appear in, but instead I will just sum it up thusly: “Any deck that can make Blue mana.”
Grave Titan
It was interesting to see Grave Titan in the Top 8. Its price has been suffering lately, but I think that its performance this weekend may give it a little boost.
Lands
The loss of the Ravnica shocklands have left deckbuilders with the tough task of creating a multicolor mana base that works. These are the lands that I expect to fill that role. I have also listed Mutavault as a utility land that I expect to see more of as the season progresses; this line of thought is based on the results of some of the Magic Online daily events.
Reflecting Pool
Not only does this combo well with the Vivid Lands, it also does a great job of smoothing out the manabase for both Five-Color control and the Doran deck.
Fetchlands and Filter Lands
Based on the Top 8, the fetchlands seem to be more prevalent than the filter lands. (The filter lands were used as a two- or three-of, but not as cornerstones.) That means that as you stock, you should put priority on fetchlands these over filter lands.
Murmuring Bosk
This is currently the only dual land that you can “fetch” for. It even made it into Frank Karsten’s Ad Nauseam deck. This has a lot of potential to rise in price after the weekend.
Worldwake Manlands
These were spotted in some of the Top 8 deck lists. I expect to see more of this as Treetop Village rotates out.
Mutavault
This was in the Merfolk deck, and I expect to see it in the Faerie decks. Pure speculation alone has driven these from ten dollars up to fifteen.
Super Uncommons
These are uncommon that are going to see a lot of play in the new Extended format. Some of these can trade for as high as five to six dollars each.
Path to Exile
This was in both the Doran decks and the White Weenie decks. I also expect to see this in control variants and Bant.
Volcanic Fallout
This will be very popular, especially if Fae starts to rise.
Kitchen Finks
This was in the Jund deck, and in the sideboard of one of the Doran decks. I expect to see this in the Five-Color Control decks to help survive the early turns.
Bloodbraid Elf
This is in the Jund deck, and I have also seen it in Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle-based decks last season.
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This is a key sideboard card in the White Weenie deck, but it also sees play in Merfolk.
You may note that I didn’t specifically talk about the Merfolk deck or Jund decks, because the cards of interest were already covered in the other lists. There are a few cards throughout the lists that I think have a heartbeat in the new Extended —Â but the cards that I listed take a higher priority. You can consider that your stock tip for this week. If you can pick these up on the cheap, I recommend doing so:
Baneslayer Angel
Chameleon Colossus
Coralhelm Commander
Elspeth, Knight- Errant
Great Sable Stag
Leyline of the Void
Meddling Mage
Memoricide (Replacing Thought Hemorrhage)
Reveillark
Vendilion Clique
Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
Thanks for reading. I’ll see you next week!