For years, we have been discussing power creep — the extent to which power, toughness, potency of spells, etc., have increased over time. The difficulty is in finding a way to measure the effect. But suppose we compare Standard decks played by the same world class players/deckbuilders over time.
Recently, I have been having problems finding something meaningful to write about. I have been mainly drafting online — and online drafts are still ZZZ or M10. That’s so last format. I was looking for something exciting.
I love looking at decklists, both current and historical. I also love playing with statistics. This sounds good.
Pro Tour: San Diego was primarily a Standard event; meaning that the Top 8 was Constructed, not Draft, and the Constructed was Standard, rather than Extended or Block. This is an advantage, in that you can find more Standard decks to compare in the historical record. Worlds, most National Championships, and things like the European Championships are all Standard.
Not all Pro Tours are Standard. In fact, they are pretty rare. The previous Standard event — unless I’m missing something — was Pro Tour: Honolulu in 2006. Hezzy won that one. Let’s look at the deck he played at that event.
Mark Herberholz — Gruul Beats – Winner – Pro Tour: Honolulu 2006
6 Forest
4 Karplusan Forest
7 Mountain
2 Skarrg, the Rage Pits
4 Stomping Ground
4 Burning-Tree Shaman
4 Dryad Sophisticate
3 Frenzied Goblin
4 Giant Solifuge
4 Kird Ape
4 Scab-Clan Mauler
4 Scorched Rusalka
4 Char
3 Flames of the Blood Hand
3 Moldervine Cloak
Sideboard
4 Blood Moon
1 Flames of the Blood Hand
2 Naturalize
2 Rumbling Slum
2 Tin Street Hooligan
4 Umezawa’s Jitte
Deck Breakdown (maindeck):
Lands: 23
Number of Creatures: 27
Number of Instants & Sorceries: 7
Number of non-creature permanents: 3
Average Converted Mana Cost (all non-land): 2.4
Average Converted Mana Cost (just creatures): 2.0
Average Converted Mana Cost (just spells): 3.4
Average Power / Toughness of Creatures: 2.5 / 2.1
It was a fast beats deck. Now let’s look at the deck Mark played in San Diego. It was not a fast beats deck.
Mark Herberholz, 21 points, Pro Tour: San Diego 2010, Standard
2 Arid Mesa
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Halimar Depths
3 Island
4 Plains
1 Scalding Tarn
4 Tectonic Edge
4 Cancel
1 Celestial Purge
3 Day of Judgment
2 Essence Scatter
4 Everflowing Chalice
2 Flashfreeze
4 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2 Martial Coup
2 Mind Spring
1 Negate
3 Oblivion Ring
1 Path to Exile
4 Treasure Hunt
Sideboard
3 Baneslayer Angel
1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant
1 Essence Scatter
2 Flashfreeze
3 Kor Firewalker
1 Mind Control
2 Negate
1 Perimeter Captain
1 Plains
Deck Breakdown (maindeck):
Lands plus non-land mana sources: 26 + 4
Number of Creatures: 1
Number of Instants & Sorceries: 23
Number of non-creature permanents: 11
Average Converted Mana Cost (all non-land): 4.2*
Average Converted Mana Cost (just creatures): 9 (one creature)
Average Converted Mana Cost (just spells): 3**
Average Power / Toughness of Creatures: 7/7 (one creature)
* I decided not to use a CMC of zero for the Everflowing Chalices. Technically, that is the correct number, speaking as a judge, but this deck is never going to play them unkicked. I used 2.5 as the typical casting cost: most will be played for two, a few will be kicked harder.
** I assumed that the X spells — Mind Spring, Martial Coup — cost 6 mana, on average, to cast.
Now we have two data points so far. That’s not enough to draw any conclusions. That would be true even if the decks were of comparable archetypes, but they are not. Mark’s 2006 deck ran 27 creatures, his Pro Tour: San Diego deck runs one. The decks are clearly radically different, so comparisons are almost pointless.
However, all is not lost. A number of other players ran the same deck in San Diego — most notably Patrick Chapin and Gabriel Nassif. We can look at their past decks, and see how they compare. Patrick Chapin, especially, generally plays this type of base-Blue control deck, so changing archetypes should be less of a problem.
I know that somewhere out there, the web has copies of the decks Patrick played in the JSS events, and so forth. I could not find them. I did find this, however:
Patrick Chapin– Mono-Red Dragonstorm – 2nd place, Worlds, 2007
3 Pyromancer’s Swath
4 Lotus Bloom
4 Incinerate
4 Shock
4 Dragonstorm
4 Grapeshot
3 Rift Bolt
4 Rite of Flame
2 Tarfire
12 Snow-covered Mountain
4 Fungal Reaches
4 Molten Slagheap
4 Spinerock Knoll
Sideboard:
4 Dodecapod
2 Ancient Grudge
3 Sulfurous Blast
2 Empty the Warrens
2 Ignite Memories
2 Wheel Of Fate
Deck Breakdown (maindeck):
Lands plus non-land mana sources: 24 + 4
Number of Creatures: 4
Number of Instants & Sorceries: 23
Number of non-creature permanents: 7
Average Converted Mana Cost (all non-land): 3.1
Average Converted Mana Cost (just creatures): 8 (one creature * 4 copies)
Average Converted Mana Cost (just spells): 2.8 (1.2 excluding Dragonstorm)
Average Power / Toughness of Creatures: 5/5 (one creature, four copies)
Once again, this is a bit deceptive as a comparison. The deck does have creatures, but they were never intended to be cast. The Hellkites exist to be summoned via Dragonstorm, or put into play using Spinerock Knoll. This is a combo deck, after all.
Fortunately, I was able to find a Standard control deck that Patrick Chapin played in the past. (Not that hard a task, actually.)
Patrick Chapin, Korlash Control, US Nationals, 2006
1 Island
4 Swamp
4 River of Tears
2 Tolaria West
1 Godless Shrine
3 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
3 Overgrown Tomb
4 Watery Grave
1 Academy Ruins
1 Urza’s Factory
4 Coalition Relic
3 Prismatic Lens
1 Mind Stone
1 Simic Signet
1 Spell Snare
1 Beacon of Immortality
1 Pact of Negation
2 Slaughter Pact
4 Damnation
3 Careful Consideration
4 Mystical Teachings
1 Tendrils of Corruption
4 Korlash, Heir to Blackblade
4 Tarmogoyf
1 Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
1 Triskelavus
Sideboard
1 Tormod’s Crypt
3 Muse Vessel
1 Slaughter Pact
3 Extirpate
1 Darkblast
1 Haunting Hymn
1 Krosan Grip
2 Pull from Eternity
2 Terror
Deck Breakdown (maindeck):
Lands plus non-land mana sources: 24 + 9
Number of Creatures: 10
Number of Instants & Sorceries: 17
Number of non-creature permanents: 9
Average Converted Mana Cost (all non-land): 3.4
Average Converted Mana Cost (just creatures): 3.6
Average Converted Mana Cost (just spells): 3.4
Average Power / Toughness of Creatures: undefined (Tarmogoyf, Korlash…)
The numbers here are a bit flaky, because of the Pacts. I did include the Pacts as having a converted mana cost of zero, but I suspect Pat didn’t pay zero when the lose-the-game triggers finally triggered.
Still, it’s one good data point: a similar style of deck.
Time to look for more. Gabriel Nassif also played this deck. Let’s look at his historic decks.
Gabriel Nassif – 2006 Worlds — Top 8
4 Adarkar Wastes
2 Flagstones of Trokair
4 Hallowed Fountain
1 Plains
1 Urza’s Factory
4 Urza’s Mine
4 Urza’s Power Plant
4 Urza’s Tower
2 Chronosavant
4 Martyr of Sands
3 Weathered Wayfarer
4 Azorius Signet
4 Compulsive Research
3 Condemn
1 Dizzy Spell
1 Muse Vessel
4 Proclamation of Rebirth
4 Remand
2 Spell Burst
4 Wrath of God
Sideboard
3 Circle of Protection: Red
3 Disenchant
1 Evangelize
2 Faith’s Fetters
1 Mimeofacture
2 Muse Vessel
1 Vesuva
1 Weathered Wayfarer
1 Whispers of the Muse
Deck Breakdown (maindeck):
Lands plus non-land mana sources: 24 + 4
Number of Creatures: 9
Number of Instants & Sorceries: 22
Number of non-creature permanents: 5
Average Converted Mana Cost (all non-land): 2.6
Average Converted Mana Cost (just creatures): 2.1
Average Converted Mana Cost (just spells): 2.8
Average Power / Toughness of Creatures: 1.9 / 1.9
The casting costs are almost universally relevant here. About the only card that is typically used for other than the casting cost is Proclamation of Rebirth, which is generally Forecast, not hard cast. Other than that, though, the deck generally pays retail for its spells.
Gabriel Nassif – Worlds 2004 Top 8 / Blue-White Control
4 Cloudpost
4 Flooded Strand
7 Island
7 Plains
3 Temple of the False God
2 Eternal Dragon
3 Exalted Angel
2 Akroma’s Vengeance
3 Annul
3 Condescend
4 Decree of Justice
4 Mana Leak
3 Rewind
4 Thirst for Knowledge
3 Wayfarer’s Bauble
4 Wrath of God
Sideboard
3 Pacifism
4 Purge
2 Relic Barrier
3 Scrabbling Claws
3 Stifle
Deck Breakdown (maindeck):
Lands plus non-land mana sources: 25 + 5 land fetchers
Number of Creatures: 5
Number of Instants & Sorceries: 27
Number of non-creature permanents: 3
Average Converted Mana Cost (all non-land): 3.1
Average Converted Mana Cost (just creatures): 6.4
Average Converted Mana Cost (just spells): 3.5
Average Power / Toughness of Creatures: 4.4 / 5
I loved playing this deck — or at least my very similar versions. Good memories. (I also have memories of the previous Martyr deck, but they are not quite as good. I’m way to slow with those to survive the mirrors, which put me in the draw bracket, which led to more mirror-matches, etc. My PTQ record ended up something like 4-1-3. Bad times.)
This deck also plays most of the spells for retail, but not the creatures. Exalted Angels are far more often cast as morphs than face up, and Eternal Dragons are often used to Plainscycle several times before they are finally hard cast.
Gabriel Nassif – 2002 Magic Invitational Standard
4 City of Brass
4 Darkwater Catacombs
7 Forest
1 Island
3 Polluted Delta
1 Swamp
4 Underground River
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Braids, Cabal Minion
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Merfolk Looter
4 Shadowmage Infiltrator
4 Call of the Herd
4 Memory Lapse
4 Opposition
4 Smother
Sideboard
3 Dark Banishing
3 Duress
3 Naturalize
2 Oversold Cemetery
4 Ravenous Baloth
Deck Breakdown (maindeck):
Lands plus non-land mana sources: 24 + 8
Number of Creatures: 24 (including Call of the Herd)
Number of Instants & Sorceries: 12 (including Call)
Number of non-creature permanents: 4
Average Converted Mana Cost (all non-land): 2.4
Average Converted Mana Cost (just creatures): 2.2
Average Converted Mana Cost (just spells): 2.3
Average Power / Toughness of Creatures: 1 / 1.6 (excluding Call tokens)
Okay, lots of stats. Can we do anything with this? Let’s summarize:
Average Converted Mana Cost of all non-land cards in control decks:
2010: 4.2
2007: 3.1
2006: 3.4, 2.6
2004: 3.1
2002: 2.4
There is a pretty clear trend there. The casting cost of spells in decks is increasing. This is exactly what you should expect with the limitation of counterspells. Players cannot afford to invest in spells costing a lot of mana and a card, if a lot less mana and a card can defeat it. (Oversimplified: see my 10k words on investment theory sometime.) I should also note that the number of data points is not enough to produce a high confidence level. (That statistician speak for “could be a fluke.”) I’ll dig for more.
The power / toughness of the creatures involved are also interesting. Here are those results:
2010: 7/7
2007: 5/5
2006: */* (Tarmogoyf, Korlash)
2004: 4.4 / 5
2002: 1 / 1.6
Again, it shows a pretty clear pattern of creatures getting bigger over time. Back in 2002, there were simply no creatures that big, aside from stuff with huge drawbacks, like Phyrexian Dreadnought, Phyrexian Colossus and Polar Kraken.
Anyway, these are control decks. Let’s try looking at someone who did not play a control deck. I’d look at LSV, but I don’t have his decklists for periods much further back than the above. I can find older decklists for the Ruel brothers and so forth, but don’t have their decklists for this event. I have Kibler’s decklist from his Top 8 in one of the side events, but he played the above control list, too.
I have Shuhei Nakamura list from this event, and have found one old Standard list from a half decade ago. I can work with that.
Shuhei Nakamura, Jund, 19 points, Pro Tour-San Diego 2010, Standard
4 Dragonskull Summit
3 Forest
3 Mountain
4 Raging Ravine
4 Savage Lands
4 Swamp
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Bloodbraid Elf
3 Broodmate Dragon
4 Putrid Leech
4 Sprouting Thrinax
4 Bituminous Blast
4 Blightning
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Liliana Vess
3 Maelstrom Pulse
3 Terminate
Sideboard
4 Duress
4 Goblin Ruinblaster
1 Liliana Vess
1 Maelstrom Pulse
3 Master of the Wild Hunt
1 Mind Rot
1 Terminate
Deck Breakdown (maindeck):
Lands: 26
Number of Creatures: 15
Number of Instants & Sorceries: 19
Number of non-creature permanents: 0
Average Converted Mana Cost (all non-land): 3.0
Average Converted Mana Cost (just creatures): 3.5
Average Converted Mana Cost (just spells):2.9
Average Power / Toughness of Creatures: 2.9 / 2.7***
*** Sort of. Is the P/T of Putrid Leech really 2/2? Is the P/T of Broodmate Dragon 4/4 or 8/8? I used 2/2 and 4/4, so this is understated.
This is a fairly typical Jund deck. Not a whole lot to say — if you are not already familiar with this deck, then you must not have been playing any Standard for the last six months.
It took a bit of work to find a Standard decklist for Shuhei. I found a few for other formats, but finally found this. The name is translated slightly differently — two “U”s, but it’s the same guy.
Shuuhei Nakamura, Go Anan Deck, 2004 Japanese Nationals Top 8
2 Blinkmoth Nexus
3 Darksteel Citadel
3 Glimmervoid
4 Great Furnace
3 Seat of the Synod
3 Vault of Whispers
4 Arcbound Ravager
4 Arcbound Worker
4 Disciple of the Vault
4 Frogmite
4 Myr Enforcer
4 Chromatic Sphere
2 Electrostatic Bolt
4 Shrapnel Blast
4 Skullclamp
4 Thoughtcast
4 Welding Jar
Sideboard
3 Furnace Dragon
3 Genesis Chamber
2 Mana Leak
4 Pyroclasm
3 Seething Song
Deck Breakdown (maindeck):
Lands: 18
Number of Creatures: 20
Number of Instants & Sorceries: 22
Number of non-creature permanents: 12
Average Converted Mana Cost (all non-land): 2.2****
Average Converted Mana Cost (just creatures): 3.0****
Average Converted Mana Cost (just spells): 1.6
Average Power / Toughness of Creatures: 1.8 / 1.8****
**** Or not. This was Affinity. How often did anyone pay 4 for a Frogmite, or 7 for a Myr Enforcer? (I even had to look up the casting cost of the Enforcer, just to double check.) Thoughtcast never really cost 2U, and the P/T of Arcbound Ravager is not really 1/1. Not for long.
Skullclamp Affinity is not a normal deck. I don’t even think it’s worth charting these results.
I am going to stop here. This article is already late, and digging for decklists takes a lot of time. I’ll pick it up again sometime in the future. I’m still interested, and revisiting the old decklists sure beats working.
PRJ
“one million words” on MTGO