Too Much Information – Buffalo And DC Standard Opens

Join SCG Invitational finalist Michael Hetrick as he breaks down the metagame with the numbers from the SCG Standard Opens in Buffalo and Washington, DC so you can know what to expect at SCG Open Series: Denver.

Welcome to another edition of Too Much Information! Today we’ll see what a few weeks of M13 did to the format at SCG Standard Open: Buffalo and SCG Standard Open: Washington, DC.

In my previous installment, we saw a surprising decrease in Delver decks and an increase in variety due to the new set release. In fact, U/W Delver was actually outplayed by numerous decks in St. Louis. But as the format has progressed, Delver has reclaimed its spot at the top. I didn’t have much doubt that it would return once the excitement from M13 had settled down. Take a look:

Buffalo Standard Open

While not quite reaching its numbers from pre-M13 events, U/W Delver is back on top at 13% of the field. Its win percentage also hasn’t suffered and is actually at a high of 58%. As mentioned last week, U/W Delver is proving to be a very consistent choice throughout events.

Zombies has been creeping up the list for a while and has finally tied itself with Naya Pod. The various versions managed an exact 50% win rate, with the Birthing Pod version having the highest among them. It’s interesting to note that B/R Zombies was the most played version this time. It’s normally closer to 2% of the field but has reached 5.6%. Its win percentage dropped from the last two events to 51.8%.

Naya Pod didn’t change much. Its field percentage (9.3%) and win percentage (55.1%) were close to what they usually are.

Mono-Green Dungrove actually surpassed its field percentage from the last two events at 8.7%, but its win percentage dropped from last week’s low of 49.1% to 45.8%.

G/R Aggro matched its previous amount of play (5.6%), but its win percentage increased by 6.7% to 57.6%, which closely resembles its win rate in St. Louis.

G/W Aggro also matched its previous amount of play (3.1%) and increased its win percentage from an unfortunate 37% to 50%.

The Naya Aggro deck (sans Birthing Pod) showed up again at 2.8% but this time didn’t have such a strong win percentage (46.7%).

Mono-Blue Talrand also showed up again at 2.5% of the field, and its win percentage saw a big jump from the last two events to 64.7%.

U/G Delver made an appearance at 2.5% of the field, but with a win rate of 37.3%, it was the worst of significantly played decks.

Mono-Black Control numbers dropped to 2% of the field, and its win percentage dropped by 2.9%. The version with Trading Post was once again only played by two players, but it had a win percentage of 66.7%.

We also see Delver’s returning presence in the Top 8 of SCG Standard Open: Buffalo, where there were three U/W Delver decks with one ending up the winner. The rest of the Top 8 was very diverse, featuring the following decks in order of placing: G/W Elves, Esper Midrange, Bant Pod, Naya Pod, and G/W Aggro. The Elves deck (which was not played in significant numbers) made its first showing here.

DC Standard Open

Quite a long list we have here, and that’s because SCG Standard Open: Washington, DC was an impressive 630 players! I’d call that a pretty good success.

U/W Delver was already back as the most played deck in Buffalo, but Washington, DC saw it return as the most played deck by twice as much as the next (at 16.9%). It also saw the rise of Hero of Bladehold in U/W Delver. Only four people played it, but it put two of them into the Top 8 and boasted an impressive 82.1% win rate. Generic U/W Delver still had its own very high win rate at 58.9%.

Zombies dropped slightly in percentage of field, but the Br/R version was again the most played of the different versions at 5.3% and had a win rate of 53%.

If we include the new results from the different versions of Zombies, our new sheet looks like this:

The biggest change from last time is that B/R has picked up quite a bit both in play and in wins. It still hasn’t surpassed the other two top performing versions in wins though.

Naya Pod saw a decrease in field percentage by 2% as well as a decrease in win rate by 2.3%. It still continues to have a fair portion of the field and a fair win percentage.

After Elves’ performance in Buffalo it saw a huge jump in percentage played, going from 1.1% to 4.61%. But the deck proved its fragility by dropping its win rate down to 42.7%.

Mono-Black Control also jumped in percentage played despite not getting as much limelight as Elves did. It went from 2% of the field to 4.1%. Its win percentage actually dropped lower though, going from 48.8% to 44.1%. Even the (once again) two players playing the Trading Post version didn’t fare well this time with a measly 25% win rate.

Naya Aggro saw a jump as well, going from 2.8% to 4% of the field. Its win percentage rose to 50%, still nowhere close to matching its 61% win rate in St. Louis.

Despite having a good win percentage in Buffalo, G/R Aggro dropped down to 3.7% of the field. It still maintained a 54% win rate.

Wolf Run Ramp, which we haven’t seen much of recently, finally made its way up the list again at 3% of the field. Its win percentage was higher than recent weeks at 55.1%.

Mono-Green Dungrove dropped way down to 3% of the field and had a similar win rate to Buffalo at 46.7%.

This is the first showing we’ve seen of Bant Pod (thanks to one Cedric Phillips I’m sure), which took 3% of the field and has a win rate of 52.9%.

G/W Aggro showed up at 2.9% of the field, but with a win rate of 33.3% it had the lowest of significantly played decks.

Mono-Blue Talrand had a similar field percentage at 2.7%, but for the first time had a win rate below 50%, 45% to be exact.

The Top 8 was once again flooded with U/W Delver; this time it took up four of the slots but didn’t win the event. That honor went to Wolf Run Blue piloted by Reid Duke, who took out two of the Delver players in the Top 8 on his way to the win. There were six other players who piloted the deck, and their combined win rate was 54.4%. The other decks in Top 8 were Naya Pod, Frites, and Mono-Green Dungrove.

Top Deck Stats

The percentages are influenced more heavily by the results of SCG Standard Open: Washington, DC due to the higher amount of players. Naya Aggro was still played a fair amount but was knocked off this list thanks to the prevalence of Mono-Black Control in DC. Zombies has finally fitted itself as the second most played deck over Naya Pod, and Mono-Green Dungrove, which barely existed pre-M13, looks like it’s here to stay.

Despite its dip last time, U/W Delver has now shown that it’s consistent, adaptable, and powerful enough that it will remain on top for the rest of the season.

Zombies has finally crept over Naya Pod to be the second most played archetype. It no longer has the worst win percentage on the list either, now at a respectable 51.66%.

Despite Naya Pod’s stellar performance last time and its usual high placing on the top decks list, it was only the third most played deck this time. Its win percentage did go up slightly though.

Mono-Green Dungrove started its (post-M13) life with a 54.9% win rate, but it has since dropped down to a meager 46.61%, a significant decrease.

G/R Aggro was played less this time but saw a 2.2% increase in win percentage, which gives it a win rate that comes close to U/W Delver’s. The deck doesn’t get a lot of hype, but its performance has been fairly impressive from week to week.

Mono-Black Control, the only new deck to grace the top decks list this week, had the worst win percentage of the group. In fact, both of the new archetypes spawned by M13 did very poorly. It’s possible we’ll see them drop off the list soon.

U/W Delver Matchups

U/W Delver continues to be pretty even with Zombies and weak to Naya Pod and G/R Aggro. The Mono-Green Dungrove matchup made a pretty big jump up to 64.6%, and the Mono-Black Control matchup has proven to be quite good. I’m most concerned with U/W Delver not having great numbers against the next two most played decks considering that those are decks you’ll see the most (after mirror matches).

Zombies Matchups

When compared to U/W Delver’s numbers, Zombies doesn’t look like a good choice. It is slightly better against the top two decks on the list but dramatically worse against Mono-Green Dungrove and Mono-Black Control, as well as slightly worse against G/R Aggro. I would think hard before picking up Zombies this season (or at least look at the different versions).

Naya Pod Matchups

Last time, Naya Pod’s performance was astounding. It had good numbers against most of the top played decks. It continues that trend against the three most played decks, this time demolishing Mono-Green Dungrove as well as U/W Delver. It still proves to be weak to G/R Aggro and also to the new deck on the list, Mono-Black Control. Being weak to only the bottom two decks on the list still makes Naya Pod a strong choice for upcoming events.

Mono-Green Dungrove Matchups

Last time, Mono-Green Dungrove only had 50%+ numbers against two decks on the list. This week it has one, and it’s an even 50%. The numbers are just atrocious. I’d venture a guess as to the cause of the deck’s weak performance, but I am unsure what could cause such a decrease across the board.

In short, I would recommend playing something else.

G/R Aggro Matchups

G/R Aggro saw an increase in wins against every deck on the list, and it also happens to have 50%+ win rates against the four most played decks. As it was only 4.4% of the field, this deck might be underplayed.

Last time, I commented that Naya Aggro might end up replacing G/R Aggro because of its good numbers and strength in the matchup. Well, Naya Aggro hasn’t picked up played this time, but we might see more of it again soon.

Mono-Black Control Matchups

Mono-Black Control turned out to have very similar numbers compared to last time. Unfortunately, it has very weak numbers against U/W Delver. But otherwise, it has some strong numbers against the rest of the top decks. Zombies is not quite 50%, but the rest are a fair amount over that line. Choosing to go into an event with a poor matchup against the most played deck is a tough call to make though.

Wrap Up

It was only a matter of time before the M13 hype wore off and U/W Delver reclaimed its throne, and it didn’t take long at all. I find it unlikely that we’ll see much of a change in the format for the remainder of the season. I would like to see something new, but with PTQs being over and the format being what it is, I’m not too hopeful.

With that said, there’s still some room for some innovation, as we’ve seen with Wolf Run Blue and Hero Delver. Whether or not one of those decks can take over the format remains to be seen. Time will tell.

In the meantime, may all your Bonfires be miracles and your openers be sneeps.

See you next time, and thanks for reading!

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Michael Hetrick