One Step Ahead – The Latest Updates in Standard

With Worlds behind us, now is the best time for deckbuilders and tuners. There’s an established metagame, and you can almost bet that once you figure out what archetype your opponents are on, you know the majority of their decklist. Let’s take a look at the metagame at large, starting with the big winner from Worlds, U/B Control.

Control has always been the favored deck of pros and for good reason. Typically, a well-played, well-tuned control deck has what it takes to compete with all the top decks, and this format is no different. While U/B Control put five players into the Top 8 at Worlds, it’s worth noting that Matignon himself went 3-3 in the Swiss before sweeping the Top 8.

As with most control decks, this one wins through incremental advantage gained with Sea Gate Oracle, Spreading Seas, and both Jaces before eventually playing a Grave Titan to lock the game up.

As I said, a control deck has to be well tuned in order for it to succeed, and each of the players in Top 8 arrived at similar lists. The striking similarities could be because of the Czech connection to Channel Fireball or Patrick Chapin connection to LSV and Wafo-Tapa, but it’s irrelevant. For the most part, they did everything right, and the majority of them were rewarded for it.

Going into Worlds, Vampires and Valakut were the two biggest decks, and U/B has the tools to defeat both. Nearly everybody showed up with the full amount of Spreading Seas and Tectonic Edges in their control decks to defeat Valakut. Sea Gate Oracle and Spreading Seas were annoying cards to fight through from the Vampires side of things as well. Aggro decks had to deal with a plethora of card draw, removal, and difficult-to-beat Grave Titans.

From here on out, every single deck is going to have to adapt to U/B, including the mirror. For aggressive decks, they’ll need to play things that are immune to Doom Blade, Disfigure, and Consume the Meek, while simultaneously beating through Sea Gate Oracles. Big things like Abyssal Persecutor just run headfirst into Mana Leak or Jace, the Mind Sculptor though.

At Pro Tour San Juan, Kyle Boggemes used equipment like Trusty Machete to power his Bloodghasts through Wall of Omens, and maybe that’s what needs to happen here. Gatekeeper of Malakir and Skinrender are both solid options that accomplish that as well.

Oftentimes, the Vampire clock is too slow, and Grave Titan stabilizes the board regardless. Memoricide is an option, but even something like Blood Seeker could do the trick.

As long as U/B stays caught up with the rest of the format, it will continue to be a major player.

Good Matchups

U/W
Vampires
Valakut
Boros
RDW
Quest

Bad Matchups

R/U/G
Maybe Elves

Vampires slowly picked up a cult following on Magic Online thanks to Brazilians like Shooter, aka EdB. The natural reaction to that was to add red for spells like Arc Trail to break the mirror. The combination of Bloodghast, lots of reach in the form of Kalastria Highborn, and Dark Tutelage to continually serve up pressure was difficult for control to beat.

It even looked like Vampires would overthrow Valakut as the best deck in the format, but that claim was quickly squashed. At the StarCityGames.com Invitational, I went 10-0 in games against Vampires with Valakut. Granted, none of those games involved Demon of Death’s Gate, but the rest is pretty telling. Vampires just can’t compete with the most powerful decks without drawing high-variance sideboard cards.

Vampires, overall, didn’t have a very good record at Worlds, and that was basically because everyone else had adapted to fight them while the Vampire lists mainly stayed the same. Looks like it’s time for another retooling.

Good Matchups

Elves
Boros
Most U/W
R/U/G
RDW

Bad Matchups

U/B
Valakut
Maybe Quest

Squadron Hawk was another Japanese innovation, this time apparently from Akira Asahara. The Hawks, while unimpressive on the surface, provide U/W with a way to attack planeswalkers, something they never really had access to before. They also protect your own walkers while being particularly insane with Jace. However, does Jace really need the help?

Due to being played by many high-profile players like Brian Kibler and Brad Nelson, this version of U/W will most likely be the go-to list. Spreading Seas is probably a necessity at this point, but other than that, the Caw-Go list is about as good as it can be.

Another well-known Faerie master managed his first Pro Tour Top 8! His build is very different from Kibler’s and is instead similar to the U/W Control decks of old. I would be very impressed if a build like this managed to become industry standard, just due to how difficult the U/B matchup is.

Now this is something I can get behind. Initially, I was skeptical of many of Nick’s choices, like less Mana Leaks, but Kibler and co. came to many of the same conclusions.

After playing a lot of games against Nick with Valakut, I came to realize that the way his deck is built is actually fairly ingenious. Rather than struggle with Valakut like most U/W decks do, Nick is a man with a plan. Most control decks get blown out by Summoning Trap when they try to stop Primeval Titan from resolving, but most games, Nick doesn’t even fight over Titans.

Instead, he fights the early ramp spells with Spell Pierce and tries to find a little Jace to keep the cards flowing. Once Valakut is able to cast Primeval Titan, Nick will use one of his many ways to destroy it, use Tumble Magnet to hold it down, or combo that with Gideon to kill it outright. The Valakuts are rarely a problem with Tectonic Edges, especially once Sun Titan enters play.

Leyline of Sanctity was Kyle Sanchez big innovation for U/W, and it truly is insane. Valakut and Vampires both have a hard time winning through it and also removing it. Nick only plays two because he never wants to draw multiples, and because he doesn’t think you need to see it early, but I disagree with the latter. Sitting behind a Leyline gives you a warm, fuzzy feeling, which I would rather have than not. I could see only playing three, but if Vampires and Valakut continue to be big, I wouldn’t be upset sleeving up four Leylines.

There are some interesting choices in the above list, like one Wall of Omens or one Contagion Clasp that could probably go, but each serves their purpose. Clasp is a removal spell for Lotus Cobra, Boros’s landfall creatures, and various Vampires, all while providing value later, but those decks are a small portion of the metagame.

The Halimar Depths is clunky in a deck that desperately needs to use all of its mana every turn. There are also plenty of “enters the battlefield tapped” lands, and you would hate to draw a bunch of those.

Cutting Mind Sculptors is something that throws a lot of people off, but little Jace is often better in this deck, as it was in my various U/R decks. There are no such things as sacred cows, and being able to question the inclusion of things like Mana Leak or Jace is exactly what leads to bold innovation.

The singleton Foresee is there because it’s better than another Jace when you already have a Jace in play. Just having a Jace in play doesn’t necessarily guarantee victory, and Foresee plus a Jace activation allows you to see a ton of cards. Digging for that Gideon or Day of Judgment would still be difficult otherwise.

Still, I’m not sure if I would play the Foresee, but I definitely see its merits. Perhaps another Beleren is the better card for the deck though.

If I were to play U/W Control, it would definitely be Nick’s version, albeit with some changes.

Good Matchups (with Nick’s version)

RDW
Valakut
Vampires
Boros
Quest

Bad Matchups (with Nick’s version)

Elves
U/B
R/U/G

Matt and I played largely the same deck at Worlds. He finished 5-1, while I went 4-2. Overall, the list was solid but unspectacular and could definitely use some fine-tuning. For a better place to start, take a look at Shuuhei Nakamura’s heavily anti-control Valakut list:

Shuuhei correctly anticipated that Vampires, or aggro in general, was on the decline. With no real need for Pyroclasms maindeck, he could add Growth Spasms for the mirror and more Summoning Traps for control decks.

Oracle of Mul Daya is a rather unimpressive card without plenty of ways to manipulate the top cards of your deck, but with Summoning Trap, your opponents can’t risk countering it for fear of something worse happening.

If aggro really isn’t a concern though, why wouldn’t Shuuhei play Lotus Cobra instead of Overgrown Battlement like some of the other Japanese players did?

Overall, I’m still very happy with Valakut. Even though Valakut has the biggest target on its head, there are still tools out there that allow it to adapt. The list of matchups below might be disheartening, but Valakut has the best shot of winning its bad matchups through sheer brute force.

Good Matchups

Most U/W
Boros
Vampires
R/U/G

Bad Matchups

U/B
Quest
Most RDW
Elves, as long as Pyroclasms aren’t maindeck

It’s hard to have a positive opinion of Elves when nearly every time I play against it, I beat it. Maybe I’m more prepared for it with things like maindeck Pyroclasm, but it just never seemed like a deck that can power through a lot of hate. That said, a lot of Elves players claim that U/W Control, despite its plethora of Day of Judgments and Ratchet Bombs, is their best matchup. Pyroclasm seems like a harder card to deal with but is less played, at least at the moment.

Matchups like Valakut are strictly races, of which Elves is typically on the losing end. Tectonic Edges definitely help though.

Good Matchups

U/W
Quest
R/U/G

Bad Matchups

U/B
Most Valakut
Boros
RDW
Vampires

At one point, R/U/G was the up-and-coming deck. It took weeks of Michael Jacob insisting that it was the next big thing before Dan Jordan showed the world he was right by winning back-to-back SCG Opens. U/x Control decks are typically easy matchups for R/U/G, but Valakut and hyper-aggressive decks like Boros are difficult.

With U/B on the rise and aggro decks like Vampires on the decline, R/U/G seems poised for a comeback. The mana acceleration and ability to drop expensive threats into play quickly, and being able to out-land its opponents in the midgame make R/U/G a solid choice if all you expect are control decks.

Good Matchups

U/W
U/B

Bad Matchups

Valakut
Vampires
RDW
Boros
Quest
Elves

Definitely an old favorite of mine, so it’s sad to see Boros fallen from grace. The truth is there just isn’t a place in the metagame for mindless aggressive decks. Valakut is too fast, and the control decks have too much removal. If anyone kills your first two guys, all the wind gets blown out of your sails. While typically good against R/U/G and old forms of U/B Control, I don’t expect Boros to be winning too many tournaments in the near future.

Good Matchups

R/U/G
Most U/W
Elves
RDW
Quest

Bad Matchups

Most Valakut
Most U/B
Vampires

RDW is another one of those mindless aggro decks that really gets punished when its first creature is Lightning Bolted, Disfigured, or Condemned. If you could play eight Goblin Guides, then maybe the deck would be playable, but as is, red needs a lot of work in order to be competitive.

Regardless, I would play Koth maindeck, as U/B and other control decks have a major issue with it.

Good Matchups

Valakut
R/U/G
Elves

Bad Matchups

Boros
Vampires
U/B
U/W
Quest

WW Quest is one of those budget decks that shows up a decent amount on Magic Online, but this version adds a decent amount of rares and happened to perform admirably at Worlds. Mythics aren’t killing Magic by any means, but sometimes, they sure do make your deck better.

Without the splash, the WW deck is almost entirely reliant on playing a turn 1 Quest for the Holy Relic, which may or may not even result in a win.

Good Matchups

Maybe Vampires
RDW
R/U/G
Valakut

Bad Matchups

Boros
U/W
Elves
U/B

So what would I play? Despite absolutely hating Valakut at first, I’ve grown accustomed to playing high-variance decks in formats like Standard. Operating on power alone is normally not a good thing, as you usually want to force some sort of interaction with your opponent in order to get them to make mistakes. However, Valakut is just so head and shoulders above every other deck in the format in power that I feel like it gives me a realistic shot at winning a tournament. Most of the other matchups are so close to coin flips that I would be expected to go 5-5 at every StarCityGames.com Open.

You have to get lucky to win a tournament in the first place, especially one that is effectively double elimination, and I feel like Valakut is my best shot to do that.

This is my current list:

With Raging Ravine, Oracle of Mul Daya, Lotus Cobra, and Koth of the Hammer, you can kill control opponents who are messing with you via Spreading Seas and Spell Pierce. Combo killing them with Primeval Titan shouldn’t be necessary, as once you play some games against Nick’s U/W deck, or Memoricide, you start to realize that isn’t a rock-solid plan.

I could see moving an Oracle to the sideboard or cutting an Avenger for a Gaea’s Revenge. Prophetic Prism could potentially be maindeck for Spreading Seas, but also as another way to abuse Oracle of Mul Daya.

Harrow and Khalni Heart Expedition both help when you’re “Forest-flooded” by getting you up to four or five Mountains. More Forests are necessary to cast Lotus Cobra early and because you need one to function. Adding Forests will make Valakut more consistent, as you’ll have to mulligan less, but sometimes your clock may be a turn shorter because you can’t assemble the requisite Mountains in time.

I’ve found that eleven Mountains is acceptable. With eleven, you’ll almost never run out of Mountains to fetch. If you do, you either made a mistake, or something absurd happened like they gained twenty life. Ten Mountains is probably enough, especially with all the incremental damage that will add up with your various Grizzly Bears.

Cultivates have always been the least impressive ramp spell, so I don’t mind cutting those. Koth is another acceptable “ramp” spell for that slot but is also a giant thorn in U/B’s side.

U/B

+ 2 Prophetic Prism, 3 Gaea’s Revenge, 1 Koth of the Hammer

– 4 Harrow, 1 Avenger of Zendikar, 1 Primeval Titan

Acidic Slimes are fine here, but I wouldn’t bother. Killing their lands can keep them off Grave Titan, but other than that, it’s just bait for Summoning Trap, and also more things that are acceptable to Trap into. As I said earlier, the incremental damage against the blue decks is actually the way you’ll most likely beat them.

Siding out a Titan is only clever if they have Memoricides, which, to be fair, most U/B decks have. Primeval will most likely be the first card they name, so you don’t even want to draw it against them. Drawing a mix of threats is best, simply to keep them guessing.

U/W

+ 2 Prophetic Prism, 3 Gaea’s Revenge, 2 Acidic Slime, 1 Koth of the Hammer

– 4 Harrow, 3 Avenger of Zendikar, 1 Explore

Day of Judgment is the problem card here. With cards like Luminarch Ascension and Jace Beleren frequently appearing in U/W lists, keeping in Cobra seems like a necessity. However, at some point, you’ll play a real threat, and Day of Judgment will kill your Cobra for free. If, for some reason, they seem to be Day-free, Avenger becomes a little bit better. Should they be heavy on Days and don’t have things that necessarily need to be attacked, Lotus Cobras could probably come out.

R/U/G

+ 2 Arc Trail

– 2 Koth of the Hammer

If they have Spreading Seas, Prophetic Prism is worth siding in. Koth is alright against R/U/G, but they can attack and Bolt it rather effortlessly. Typically, I want Koth as something to respond to their Jaces with, but good R/U/G players like Dan Jordan side out their Jaces anyway.

Arc Trails are necessary to keep their Cobras and Oracles in check. A fast Cobra draw is about the only way they can beat you, so if you’re truly scared, you can board out a Harrow for another Arc Trail.

While Harrow can be difficult to navigate through a field of Spell Pierces and Flashfreezes, it’s often a surprise for them when you Harrow away the land they target with Goblin Ruinblaster or Acidic Slime.

Vampires

+ 4 Arc Trail

– 2 Koth of the Hammer, 2 Oracle of Mul Daya

Demon of Death’s Gate is the true problem card. Ideally, Pyroclasm would be the sweeper of choice, but it doesn’t interact well with your own Lotus Cobras. Arc Trail isn’t the best, but it’s usually the same.

Valakut

+ 3 Act of Treason

– 3 Oracle of Mul Daya

I tested a lot of cards for the mirror, and most of them were very disappointing. Act of Treason isn’t a perfect solution, but it gives you a few more copies of Primeval Titan. Picture a game in which you don’t have Titan, but you have plenty of ramp spells and an Act. If they play Titan on turn 4, hopefully you have six mana on your turn 4 and are able to Act of Treason their Titan and finish them with another ramp spell.

If you aren’t set up to beat their Titan in that scenario, you weren’t going to win regardless.

Traitorous Instinct may very well be better than Act of Treason, since a Titan attack (8) gets you two Valakuts, and a ramp spells nets twelve damage, which equals twenty. Act of Treason runs the risk of coming up shy at eighteen. However, with Lotus Cobra in the deck, you have an incidental Shock that could leave them at exactly zero.

Also, Instinct costing four mana may cost you the game on turn 6 when you only have six mana.

That is what I would play right now, but realize that everything is infinitely customizable. If there are Vampires lurking, play some Tumble Magnets for their Demons of Death’s Gate. If there are more control decks than aggro, Gaea’s Revenge could be played maindeck instead of some Avengers of Zendikar.

Honestly, I wish the SCG Opens started next week, as I would gladly play this new Valakut list. It’s a shame that in three weeks, one can only assume that the rest of the world will have caught up, especially as Shuuhei and the rest of the Japanese have tuned their Valakut lists in similar directions.

If you’re looking to make a little extra dough on MTGO, win some FNM foils, or just crush your friends, I think Valakut is still the deck to do it.

GerryT