This week was the unveiling of the first ever SCG Modern Open, and the Modern community was out in full. It’s not just 762 players coming out for the main
event. The stream was consistently averaging over 14,000 viewers, which is absurd. Seriously, there haven’t even been all that many GPs to average those
kind of numbers. A ton of people love playing the format, and a ton love watching it. It’s definitely good food for thought for anyone suggesting the
format needs radical changes.
But it’s just the same old thing: nothing but broken decks. The only way to play fair is Abzan.
Really? Are you sure? Even if you discount Gerard Fabiano winning with his innovative Sultai Control deck (which was one of several options he let his readers vote on when he let them decide his deck for the
Open), since Gerard is winning at everything non-stop these days, there’s still the surge of other control decks to account for, the rise of Jund as an
alternative to Abzan, Splinter Twin fighting to take the top spot of the format, and some of the most popular strategies from last month nearly completely
falling off.
Let’s start by taking a look at the day 2 metagame of SCG Baltimore. This is purely by percentage of the 64-player day 2 field, with no weight for finish.
SCG Baltimore Day 2 Metagame
Abzan Midrange continuing to be over 20% of the field is no surprise. The way the format looks right now, I would guess this mostly continues until new
sets or bans shake things up. The core strategy of Abzan would actually probably stay above 25%, if not for Jund taking some of that action. Abzan is a
healthy deck to be good, but long-term, this level of popularity is not sustainable. For all we know, Dragons of Tarkir could completely flip the format
upside down, so for now, talks of bans and unbans is premature.
Twin’s growing popularity, despite conventional wisdom that Abzan is a slightly hard matchup, is very interesting. It isn’t that bad, however, and
Twin is a fairly robust strategy. It’ll be interesting to see if Twin can actually stand being the primary target in the weeks to come. I also wonder what
the newfound success means for Twin, as that’s a matchup that traditionally favors control.
The most common approach to Twin is U/R, though not everyone is straight up cut from Jelger Wiegersma’s PT Fate Reforged Top 8 list. Seth Manfield, the
highest finishing Twin pilot, had decidedly more “compromise” in his list, with Grim Lavamancers, Vendilion Clique, Dispel, Flame Slash, and Tectonic Edge,
rather than Blood Moon and quite so much permission.
Creatures (13)
Lands (23)
Spells (24)
Manfield’s sideboard has plenty of good cards, but it is definitely less focused on transforming than Jelger’s (which could easily board out the entire
combo, when desired).
Jeff Folinus’s semi-final list is very much cut from the same cloth as Manfield’s. In fact, an extra Vendilion Clique instead of the fourth Remand and a
Gitaxian Probe instead of the Thought Scour are the only differences in what is otherwise a 58/60 identical maindeck. Their sideboards are also
conceptually similar, with Jeff featuring a second Keranos instead of Jace and a few minor tweaks like a Dismember instead of a second Sower, a Pyroclasm
instead of a second Engineered Explosives, and a Shatterstorm instead of the third Ancient Grudge.
Creatures (14)
Lands (23)
Spells (23)
While U/R Twin is the more popular approach, Temur Twin has stood the test of time as a reasonable alternative. Notice, however, that Grixis Twin has not
enjoyed sustained success, and Jeskai Twin appears to be a fad that comes and goes in the fringe territory.
Given the importance of Ancient Grudge to most Twin strategies, the real question seems to be whether or not you actually play Tarmogoyfs in your Twin
deck.
Creatures (15)
Lands (22)
Spells (23)
Tarmogoyf is obviously a great card, but it serves two important functions here. First, it’s exceptional at blocking. Lightning Bolt is greater early
defense, but it doesn’t exactly stop opposing Tarmogoyfs. Tarmogoyf does. Second, it helps with the back-up plan. Splinter Twin is easily disruptable, so
having such a durable and reliable backup plan can be quite valuable.
Something I found fairly interesting was how different the metagame looked at the top tables of day 2 when compared to the rest. After all, if you just
looked at the top 8 decklists, you would see a very different story than the above chart tells.
SCG Baltimore Top 8
3 Twin Decks (2 U/R, 1 Temur)
3 Control Decks (Sultai, Four-Color Control, and Temur Moon)
Jund
W/B Tokens
Where’s Abzan? What about Infect?
Abzan and Infect actually each have three copies in the top 16, so maybe it’s just a bit of variance, but that sure is a lot of control in the top 8. Let’s
take a look at the top 32 metagame (weighted by finish) side by side with the day 2 metagame. Any archetype with a higher percentage representation in the
top 32 metagame than its day 2 numbers can be considered to have “overperformed” on day 2.
A fair bit of delta between these two suggests the following:
● Control was the big winner, with plenty of control decks ripping apart the day 2 field.
● Abzan did poorly on day 2, with few Abzan decks near the top tables.
● Twin was more successful on day 2, perhaps partially because of the decrease in Abzan decks as the weekend went on.
● Infect and Jund were mostly neutral on day 2, compared to day 1.
● Burn did very poorly on day 2. There is a strong argument to be made that it was the worst performing archetype.
● The random one-of decks mostly underperformed on day 2, aside from control. The biggest exception to this was the W/B Tokens deck that Elliott Jones top
8’ed with, despite being the only W/B Tokens deck in day 2.
Let’s take a look at Elliott’s list:
Creatures (2)
Planeswalkers (5)
Lands (24)
Spells (29)
This build is a little lighter on disruption than some builds, at least maindeck, instead moving the extra discard to the board alongside the hate cards.
The maindeck is teched out for creature matchups, with Dismember helping justify the maindeck Timely Reinforcements.
The two Heroes of Bladehold are cool, since Liliana and the rest of our discard will increase the likelihood of her living, and if she does, she takes over
a lot of games we’d otherwise struggle in. She’s also just more durable than she looks, living through Lightning Bolt, Electrolyze, and Abrupt Decay.
The anti-burn package is noteworthy in this list. With two maindeck Timely Reinforcements, adding two Kor Firewalkers and two Leyline of Sanctity is a
total nightmare for burn decks. A lot of people have advocated hating out the burn decks, and this is an example of doing it right.
We’ve been discussing all those control decks that put up good finishes this weekend. Let’s take a look at them, because they really do have very different
gameplans. We might as well start with the champ, who has been on an absolute tear over the past several months.
Creatures (11)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (24)
Spells (22)
Gerard Fabiano is one of the most underrated deckbuilders in the game today. He has put up numerous monster finishes back-to-back-to-back with his own
creations and is showing no sign of slowing down. It may seem like Gerard is Sultai in all formats, but this was actually just one of several lists Gerard
made before letting his readers vote on what he should play at the Open Series. I don’t even think this would have been his first choice had he been forced
to choose on his own.
Tasigur, the Golden Fang is a welcome addition to this list, mostly being Tarmogoyfs 5-6, but occasionally getting to draw some extra cards. Perhaps more
surprising is the use of Thragtusk, though I would expect it to become more mainstream (perhaps in Abzan and Jund) in the weeks to come. Thragtusk is a
very powerful card, and it also matches up extremely well against a lot of things people are doing (like playing Burn or facing Siege Rhino/Abrupt Decay
decks that might Path to Exile your first threat).
I’m a fan of Gerard’s slight variation in removal, making his Serum Visions and Snapcaster Mages extra valuable. Damnation is core to his strategy, but
little touches like the Maelstrom Pulse instead of Abrupt Decay number four and the miser’s Compulsive Research and Golgari Charm are excellent. Even
though they are one-ofs, the Compulsive Research is a little bit like a fourth planeswalker, since it is a source of card advantage and gives Gerard an
invaluable tool against other black decks. The Golgari Charm gives him outs to a lot of hard problems but has some amount of overlap with Damnation, giving
him a virtual three “sweepers.”
Gerard’s use of Ashiok and Jace, Architect of Thought, instead of the more traditional Liliana, is intriguing. Jace, AoT isn’t super common, but the
reasons behind it aren’t too hard to grok. He draws cards pretty efficiently, and the plus ability shrinking tokens is particularly valuable in a world of
Lingering Souls being everywhere.
Ashiok has generally been considered too low-impact, but there is something to be said about Ashiok on a week in which others are increasing their reliance
on Path to Exile and Dismember. I’m looking forward to Gerard’s article to explain his thought process.
Gerard’s got some cool things going on in the sideboard as well. Feed the Clan is quickly becoming his signature card and is an absolute beast against burn
decks thanks to Tasigur and Tarmogoyf. Using three Disfigures is vital to his ability to keep up with Affinity and Infect. Finally, Night of Souls’
Betrayal is an underrated sideboard card that only sees a small amount of play because of how few people don’t get wrecked by it.
Gerard’s Sultai Control deck was far from the only (or even most common) way to approach building a control deck. Jeskai Control has traditionally been the
most popular, but the highest finishing “Jeskai” control deck was actually Jonathan Sukenik’s Four-Color Control deck that splashes black for the Flashback
on Lingering Souls and Mystical Teachings.
Creatures (4)
Lands (25)
Spells (31)
Sphinx’s Revelation is very difficult to use right now, and Mystical Teachings lets us play just a single copy, giving us regular access if the game goes
long. Teachings also gives us an increased level of defense against discard.
This list plays only a modest control game and actually generates most of its “card advantage” in the form of Lingering Souls and Snapcaster Mage against a
removal-heavy field. This sort of approach is great against fast decks and those of a midrange persuasion, but it’s often going to be outclassed by certain
types of combo decks (such as Tron) and control decks that go bigger (such as those with more planeswalkers and card draw).
The traditional alternative to Jeskai Control has been “Blue Moon,” a control deck with a lot of basic Islands, built to abuse Blood Moon and Vedalken
Shackles. Jeff Hoogland put up another top 8 finish with a Blue Moon deck of sorts but with some trademark Hoogland flourish adding a new dimension to the
deck. While most Blue Moon decks are just U/R, Hoogland takes a page out of the Temur Twin playbook and splashes Tarmogoyf, though he still makes use of
Blood Moon and Vedalken Shackles.
Creatures (10)
Lands (22)
Spells (28)
- 4 Lightning Bolt
- 1 Mana Leak
- 2 Boomerang
- 4 Serum Visions
- 2 Vedalken Shackles
- 3 Blood Moon
- 3 Remand
- 2 Electrolyze
- 2 Cryptic Command
- 2 Spell Pierce
- 2 Spreading Seas
- 1 Vapor Snag
Sideboard
This is a surprisingly “normal” collection of cards compared to what Hoogland is sometimes wont to bring to events, though he does have a couple of
head-turners. Boomerang is a nice all-purpose problem solver with Blood Moon, but occasionally it lets you play the land destruction game when you are on
the play and can bounce the land of someone on turn 2 that hasn’t played a card yet. Where things get really fun is if Snapcaster Mage can keep it going in
a meaningful way!
Aetherspouts is another unusual choice, but it’s actually pretty brilliant. Temur has a serious hole in the Damnation/Wrath of God department, and
Engineered Explosives only goes so far. People have tried to fill this hole with Anger of the Gods, but Hoogland’s Aetherspouts gives him a weapon against
fatties typically not found in Temur decks.
The format may have Abzan and Twin sitting on top, but Control, Infect, and Jund are right there and are all probably tier 1. There haven’t been any
successful new takes on Infect, but Jund has made some important advancements this week.
Creatures (15)
- 2 Grim Lavamancer
- 4 Dark Confidant
- 4 Tarmogoyf
- 3 Scavenging Ooze
- 1 Olivia Voldaren
- 1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (24)
Spells (17)
That’s quite the diverse selection of threats, isn’t it? Now, I like Chandra, Pyromaster in Modern, as the +1 ability is great at pinging one-toughness
creatures and making Tarmogoyfs not block, in addition to drawing extra cards, but I do kind of wonder if Outpost Siege might be underplayed. As far as I
know, no one plays it in Modern yet, and it seems like it might actually be good (particularly if it were a
part of some Lingering Souls deck).
It’s hard to imagine playing a midrange deck without Tarmogoyf, unless you had a lot of Tasigur action going on, but it’s hard to imagine wanting to do
that without green or blue to activate (or fuel) him. Whenever I think of Mardu in Modern, things turn aggressive fast. That said, every time I think of
fast aggressive decks, they need a pretty good reason to not play Tarmogoyfs.
With the first Modern Open in the books, there’s no question the response has been overwhelmingly positive. Modern is such a perfect format for GPs and
Opens, and hopefully the momentum continues to increase its significance in these arenas rather than Pro Tours, where bans are constantly needed to add
artificial novelty spikes. Just as Worldgorger Dragon and Land Tax have come off the Legacy banned list during stable times, hopefully we will see more
cards come off the Modern banned list.
If Modern was a GP/Open format (perhaps with a Modern Pro Tour only every other year, or every three years), there’s a very good chance Birthing Pod
wouldn’t have even needed to be banned, and who knows? Maybe we find ourselves back in that space in the not-too-distant future.
What I do know is that Modern is thriving and Modern Masters 2 is only going to help fuel that growth. Card availability is a serious issue in Modern, with
so many of the staples $50-$100. Modern Masters 2 features a much larger print run and will meaningfully increase the supply of many of these staples,
likely having a more significant impact on their secondary market prices than the original Modern Masters had.
Okay, Modern is awesome, but I gotta switch back to Standard mode for this weekend. Not only is Next Level Deckbuilding finally available in paperback
(after the longshoreman strike delayed things by a couple weeks), but the GP in Miami is going to be huge! Is it really time to finally put down the Siege
Rhinos…?
What should I play and why?
● Sultai Control
● R/W Aggro
● Jeskai
● Abzan Midrange