There was a lot happening last weekend in the tournament scene. We had SCG Open: Baltimore and GP Amsterdam. I don’t have conclusive results from either event, but we can still talk about the formats and what information we do have.
Standard
It’s an exciting time for Standard. Until the SCG Open in Nashville, Mono Red and Solar Flare dominated the format, but now the metagame has shifted to Kessig Wolf Run Ramp and U/B Control (via Jeremy Neeman, winner of GP Brisbane). SCG Open: Balitmore is showcasing some new brews that have a lot of potential in Standard, and naturally new decks drive the demand for cards. Let’s take a look at some of the decks that are developing in the new Standard.
Wolf Run Green
I just wanted to briefly point out the shift in strategy here. They moved from Slagstorms to Dungrove Elder and Birds of Paradise. You can thank Owen Turtenwald for popularizing the innovations and for raising the price on your Dungrove Elders. It’s good to see that my instinct was correct on the little three-drop.
Dungrove Elder $2.99
If it weren’t for the new Garruk, then this would be in the bulk list. Before Garruk, Primal Hunter, this guy was the only incentive to play mono-green. If you have this guy in play when you drop Garruk on turn five, you’ll be drawing six cards the next turn (after making a Beast). It feels like the pieces of a solid mono-green list are coming together.
Creatures (20)
- 2 Llanowar Elves
- 4 Solemn Simulacrum
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 1 Acidic Slime
- 4 Primeval Titan
- 1 Wurmcoil Engine
- 4 Dungrove Elder
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (24)
Spells (12)
Dungrove Elder $3.99
Popularity: Medium
Perceived Value: Low $2-$3
Synopsis: With the way Wolf Run Green is picking up popularity, I can see this guy going to $5+ easy. I would pick them up this week while people still view it as a junk rare.
Action: Engage
Mono-Black Infect
This deck was originally created by Jessie Smith over at www.60cards.com, but master deck tuner Gerry Thompson picked it up and tuned it for a friend to play in States. The deck has grown in popularity, and Gerry’s performances in Baltimore as well as the States results are sure to make this a fixture in the new Standard metagame. Thanks to Jesse and Gerry, this makes me three for three in my post-rotation sleeper pickup calls (sick brags); see my “Post-Rotation Pickups” article.
Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon $9.99
Popularity: Medium
Perceived Value: Low $4 – $5
Synopsis: This is the glue that holds the mono-black infect deck together. At ten bucks, it’s not the best pick up, but there’s still a window for you to pick these up cheap. Also keep in mind that this is a mythic rare, and it’s used in Commander; this means there aren’t as many as you would expect on the market. This card could easily go up to $15, but if you have to put anymore than $8 on it, I’d pass. If you get it at $8, you can trade it at $10 and grind a couple dollars. Worst-case scenario, you can ship for $8 and protect yourself from losing value.
Action: Engage
Inkmoth Nexus $14.99
Popularity: High
Perceived Value: Low $12
Synopsis: This is one of the most played rares in Standard. You may not realize it on the surface, but if you think about it, Inkmoth has a place in Mono-Black Infect, Tempered Steel, U/W Blade, Wolf Run Ramp, Tezzeret Control, and the new U/B Blade deck. This card has little room to grow, but any self-respecting trader would want to have these in stock.
Action: Engage
Lashwrithe $3.99
Popularity: Medium
Perceived Value: Low $1
Synopsis: From out of the bulk bin, Lashwrithe rises like a phoenix. Picking these up last week would have been awesome, but now the cat is out of the bag. I expect this to stay between $2 and $4 for the rest of its life in Standard. If you have these, then now is the time to ship them. Picking these up right now is too much of a liability because it’s a rare, and it’s tied too closely to the mono-black infect deck.
Action: Do Not Engage
Township Tokens
There are currently two different types of token builds in Standard at the moment, U/W and G/W. Cedric Philips piloted U/W Tokens to a first-place victory at his States. Both decks rely on the newly printed utility lands, Moorland Haunt in U/W and Gavony Township in the G/W deck. When the set was released, these utility lands could be picked up for a dollar, and now all but the R/B land have found homes in Standard. The G/W Token deck is putting the Township and some other gems to work. Check out the list.
Creatures (11)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (24)
Spells (21)
Gavony Township $3.99
Popularity: Low
Perceived Value: Low $2
Synopsis: As I said above, this land is used in the G/W Token builds. This card is only a pickup if you can get it for the perceived value; it’s a card that you don’t want to pick up for full price. There’s not much room to grow here, and it costs a lot to activate, so that limits its playability in older formats.
Action: Engage
Elspeth Tirel $19.99
Popularity: High
Perceived Value: Low $15
Synopsis: There was a time when Elspeth could be found for between $7 and $8 dollars. That time is long gone, and Elspeth is on the rise. If these token decks continue to perform, I could see Elspeth hitting $30. Even Jace, Memory Adept hit $30 for a moment after it started seeing play in Solar Flare.
Action: Engage
Blade Splicer $4.99
Popularity: High
Perceived Value: Accurate $4-5
Synopsis: This care has steadily gone up in price, which is impressive for a rare that’s in a pre-con deck. It’s a solid three-drop in a couple of different decks, but its current price isn’t really justified. The play would have been to pick these up at $1 when they first came out. My advice now is to ship the ones that you have and pass on picking up new copies at the current value.
Action: Do Not Engage
Hero of Bladehold $14.99
Popularity: High
Perceived Value: Accurate $15
Synopsis: The question to answer here is, “Will Hero of Bladehold get higher than $15?” I don’t think it will. The fact that it was a Prerelease promo anchors the price from creeping up higher. When a player can buy the Prerelease promo for $10 or less, it makes it hard to justify the “normal copy” being $15. If you look at other cards with a similar price footprint like Consecrated Sphinx and Batterskull, you see how crazy it is to think that this card can break $15. Consecrated Sphinx and Batterskull will break $15 before this does.
Action: Do Not Engage
Tezzeret Control
This deck was introduced by the man with the Icy Grip, Shaheen Soorani. Tezzeret has captured people’s attention since it was first printed. In its short career as a Magic card, it’s been more successful in Legacy than in Standard, but that hasn’t stopped people from trying fit him into different Standard builds (U/B Infect… I’m looking at you, Brian Kibler). Shaheen’s control deck is one of the more successful lists, taking him to the finals of his States.
Creatures (9)
Planeswalkers (9)
Lands (25)
Spells (17)
Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas $19.99
Popularity: Low
Perceived Value: High $25
Synopsis: This card is on the decline. The only way that I can see this card rising in price is if the old Kuldotha Forgemaster decks start to dominate Standard. I think that deck had some game in the current environment, but fighting Ancient Grudge would be an uphill battle. I don’t think that running Tezzeret in a control build like Shaheen’s deck will be successful. I expect this card to hit $15 before the end of its life in Standard. Keep an eye on the artifacts in the next couple of sets. It could make Tezzeret relevant and push the price up.
Action: Do Not Engage
Batterskull $12.99
Popularity: Low
Perceived Value: High $14
Synopsis: This card is underpriced. Everyone who plays Standard needs this card. This card also sees play in Legacy, and it’s a mythic rare. Batterskull seems to be suffering from the backlash of the Stoneforge Mystic banning. For a moment, Batterskull’s future was uncertain without the little artificer to cheat it into play. Now it’s proven itself as an effective tool to combat red decks and grind out wins. I would focus on trading for these. You’ll be able to cash them once they start to rise.
Action: Engage
Legacy
GP Amsterdam happened this weekend, and there were some interesting results from the GP Trials. Going into the tournament, I had my eyes on two decks. The first is Snapcaster BUG, and the second is Caleb Durward’s Past in Flames deck. Both of these decks are the early developments of strategies that I think will become fixtures in the Legacy metagame.
BUG
The latest evolution of the black-blue-green control deck known as Team America added four copies of the new Innistrad rare, Snapcaster Mage. The Mage allows you to reuse spells like Hymn to Tourach and Brainstorm to gain maximum value.
Creatures (9)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (22)
Spells (25)
Snapcaster Mage $29.99 (Sold Out)
Popularity: High
Perceived Value: Accurate $30
Synopsis: Now is not the time to pick this card up. I expect this card to dip before it makes its ascension to the upper echelons of money rares. I will admit that the fact that it hasn’t dropped yet is making me nervous. Once we see movement in any direction, then we’ll have a better idea of how this card will behave. In the short term, I expect a dip so I feel good about not engaging this card.
Action: Do Not Engage
More on Snapcaster Mage
Even though this card might see a dip soon, Snapcaster Mage is still the real deal. There are only a handful of decks in Standard running him, but Snapcaster Mage is still being discovered. Some of the pros are starting to refer to him as the Bloodbraid Elf of the set. The only difference is that this Bloodbraid Elf is going to see a ton of play in Legacy.
Brian Grewe (yeah, I’m not afraid to name names) challenged me in the comments of my set review about Snapcaster Mage and his viability in Legacy. For those of you who read the exchange and are still wondering, the results over the past few weeks should prove that Snapcaster Mage is here to stay. Not only is he a mainstay in BUG, he’s also popping up in High Tide decks. Check this version of High Tide out.
Spells (40)
This is only the beginning. It’s just a matter of time before Snapcaster Mage makes it into Bant (more Stifles please), Reanimator (flashback Entomb, Edict me?), and U/W Tempo (He can hold a sword!), or any other blue deck that people can jam him into. I expect to see more High Tide decks like this one with even more Snapcaster Mages main.
As a quick aside, did you also notice that there was something missing from that High Tide list?
Candelabra of Tawnos $299.99
Popularity: Low
Perceived Value: Accurate $300
Synopsis: I played High Tide since the banning of Misstep, and the fact is that the deck (in its old configuration) is not good in the format. There are too many Spell Pierces, Hymn to Tourachs, and Surgical Extractions in the field to get by with this deck. I like the approach that the deck above uses with the slower game plan and added protection of Spell Piece. They made room for this plan by cutting the Candelabras, and they were successful. This is not good news for the $300 (soon-to-be-less) artifact. Ship these while you can.
Action: Do Not Engage
Past in Flames.dec
This is the deck that I wanted to make most after Innistrad was spoiled. I struggled with the numbers and configuration so I just threw my hands up and quit, “One of the pros will figure this out and then I will play that version.” Well, thanks, Caleb! The reason why this deck is important is because it runs four Past in Flames!
Lands (13)
Spells (47)
Past In Flames $7.99
Popularity: Medium
Perceived Value: Low $7
Synopsis: This is a strong deck, and I expect this strategy to be further developed as time goes on. Past in Flames is on the verge of seeing play in Standard; all we need to see is a ritual or two and a sick draw spell. If we see that, then this card will automatically become a $15+ card. It’s not safe to move in on this card yet, but watch this card carefully and keep your eyes peeled for rituals in the next set.
Action: Do Not Engage (yet)
Spoils of the Vault $1.99
Popularity: Low
Perceived Value: Low $1
Synopsis: I was surprised to see this as a four-of in a Legacy deck. This is also played in the “Eggs” deck in Modern, and it may have other Modern applications. You can pick these up cheap, and they have a lot of upside. Now go raid those bulk boxes!
Action: Engage
Flusterstorm $11.99
Popularity: Medium
Perceived Value: Low $10
Synopsis: This was a four-of in Chris VanMeter winning deck in Nashville. This card’s play value is increased now that cards like Snapcaster Mage and Past in Flames exist. Since it can only be found in one of the Commander decks, I expect this card to rise in price once the Legacy metagame has need for it. I’m aggressively trading for these at the moment, and barring a reprint, I’m sure that I will see a strong return.
Action: Engage
That’s all for this week! See you next week and thanks for reading.
Jonathan