A couple of writers on this and every site, YT included, have sounded off on card changes from Ninth Edition to X… For this one, I took most of the decks that performed at U.S. Regionals (from my own breakdowns on Swimming With Sharks, natch) and just started to think about how existing decks might be affected. There aren’t a lot of winners in the transition, but I guess that is counterbalanced by the possibilities for new and exciting Squee or Assault / Loam decks. There are a number of minor and massive losers, ranging from “this deck is still pretty good but loses Persecute” to “no Wildfire, no Magnivore, no deck.” Here are my initial reactions:
The Best Decks
At format equilibrium, the best decks perform regardless of population density. Good examples would be Heezy Street, Heartbeat (Standard 2006), Ravager Affinity (Standard and Block), and sometimes Tooth and Nail (Standard). Most popular decks fail to perform at clip (Tooth and Nail the rest of the time, Slith Red Decks) because they are expected, their linear strategies are cut off by spoilers, or the basics of diminishing returns. “Play the best deck” is usually the correct mantra on the Pro Tour or early in a season, both of which tend to occur in pre-equilibrium metagames, but the great variety of successful decks that consistently erupts over the course of essentially every amateur PTQ season proves that the best decks usually overstay their welcomes, paving the way for predators, audibles, and metagame calls.
Gruul Variants
Gruul was unquestionably the best deck of U.S. Regionals, if not commandingly. For sure this archetype came in with Top 4 popularity, but backed up its population with a greater than fifty percent batting average in matches that mattered; in addition to sole possession of the top number of Nationals invitations, Gruul finished second in overall Top 8s.
Delta Position – Gruul started off the best, and may be picking up the most from the Tenth Edition switchover. I think it is common knowledge at this point that Kird Ape, Scab-Clan Mauler, and Giant Solifuge might not have been the best G/R team you could have assembled at Regionals, so the loss of their “signature” one-drop (in favor of a pretty good replacement, mind you) is not so significant as the likely death of Gruul’s primary foil in the environment. Incinerate is strictly better than Volcanic Hammer. Dragonstorm is done. What’s not to love? Could it be death by popularity? The gains made by this deck, both in internal card improvement and the ripple effects elsewhere in the metagame are not hard to identify… and Gruul is looking to be a difficult mirror match to break. Gruul / G/R / Red Decks with Tarmogoyf / whatever are poised to be victims of their own success… But Gruul was the most popular at Regionals and that didn’t stop it from holding its numbers. It will be interesting to see how this story unfolds this summer.
Dragonstorm
Dragonstorm finished first in U.S. Regionals Top 8 finishes, but failed to back up its position as expertly as Gruul. That said, the World Championship archetype picked up the second most Nationals invitations, which, while not surprising given its popularity, is not something we can easily dismiss. It is conceivable to call Dragonstorm overplayed.
Delta Position – Dragonstorm suffers an awfully tall fall from grace, from the #1 or #2 deck to likely unplayable. While I don’t know that the loss of Seething Song does not make the strategy impossible to execute on (perhaps over the kitchen table), one of the big incentives to Dragonstorm was always that any donkey could lace together a turn 4 finish. With that “oops, I won” much less likely, especially given the disappearance of Sleight of Hand, I predict few if any will brave the Storm.
Solar Flare Variants
Solar Flare was possibly underplayed at U.S. Regionals. It did very well, chasing Dragonstorm and Gruul by just a couple of envelopes, while appearing at Regionals with essentially no hype. I actually found Solar Flare’s performance refreshing this time around, as opposed to last U.S. Nationals where it was overplayed but still managed to hold its numbers (okay, I guess that means it wasn’t overplayed as in a deck, just overplayed as in “Angel” by Sarah McLachlan, circa 1999).
Delta Position – Solar Flare suffers a minor net loss with Persecute leaving the main set, but that loss has to be taken in context; with fewer Storm combo decks, Persecute is less necessary. Possible short list.
Winners: Gruul
Neutral: None
Losers: Solar Flare (minor), Dragonstorm (major)
Overplayed Decks
For a deck to be overplayed is not the same thing as that deck being “bad.” Decks are overplayed for many reasons. They are often the It! Girl! of a new set or format. Sometimes they are ported from a different format and fail to post numbers against a wider field. Sometimes they are just very popular and end up drowning each other out with mirror matches, leaving what should ostensibly be prey to actually win tournaments, causing the “in the know” to shake their heads in disgust.
Dredge
Dredge is the classic example of the overplayed deck. Clearly the deck was powerful, maybe the second most powerful, but that was part of the problem. Dredge aficionados basically had daily press releases about the deck, resulting in Tormod’s Crypt, Extirpate, and Leyline of the Void to be the most popular sideboard cards of U.S. Regionals an impossible trio to beat consistently over the course of almost every match.
Delta Position – Of the decks that weren’t actually blanked by X, Dredge takes one of the biggest poundings, kind of like the metagame equivalent of Splash Damage. Not only will already popular foil G/R gain ground, one of the cards prompting G/R metagame share is Mogg Fanatic… Mogg Fanatic kills enablers, removes Bridges from the game, and can race. People have been talking about Goblin Lore some, but I don’t know if that chit-chat counterbalances than the clear influx of awesome threats and answers out of exactly the wrong deck. That said, playing Dredge at the right moment might be a decision of genius. If there is one thing that I’ve lamented about the Standard format the past couple of weeks, it’s that four of my sideboard cards are almost always spoken for, despite the fact that I have very little faith in the realistic viability of the deck that they are warming seats to fight (note that this is the real part played by Dredge – it almost by definition cannot be the right choice so long as other decks remain vigilant but it in a vital way keeps the rest of the metagame honest). However if everyone is sick of this and everyone figures that no one is crazy enough to run Dredge against a Mogg Fanatic format, then that might be exactly the tournament that it is right to call the audible to Dredge. I think about tuning Dredge for the first Nationals Grinder basically every day, and that’s saying something considering our history.
Dralnu Variants
Dralnu… What happened with this one? Dralnu is a perfect example of the disconnect between paper and digital Magic. Dralnu has been one of the most popular decks online for months… yet was basically the least successful deck of U.S. Regionals. I honestly don’t know what this beat, or now beats.
Delta Position – Miserable. Interesting… but miserable. The exact wrong decks are gaining for Dralnu’s incentives. Dralnu loses significant tools in Mana Leak and Rewind, but that isn’t that big a deal. Mana Leak was not an automatic four-of, and is easily replaced with Rune Snag (if it wasn’t already). Rewind is not as necessary with Dragonstorm gone (and no Gigadrowse answer a requirement for deck viability)… but with Dragonstorm going the way of the dodo, Dralnu has no clear prey. I think that there are just better ways to go with control than B/U permission, probably more focused on board control and defensive deck speed.
The Rack
I don’t want to seem too negative, and it might not even be fair to put this archetype in “overplayed” because it won 3/4 of its important matches at Regionals… but I don’t think I’ve ever seen this deck win a match. The combination of no offense, overall weak threats, and numerous do-nothings make the incentives to playing this deck a gigantic question mark. Pat Sullivan tried to explain it to me once, but I never got past the fact that while you could theoretically lose to multiple copies of The Rack, that never seems to happen in the real world. Anyone? Buehler?
Delta Position – I actually think this deck occupies an interesting position in the evolving metagame, where multiple variables that have nothing to do with it, expressly, are at work. My theory is that The Rack is a big loser, and I wasn’t even thinking about the fact that it loses a weapon in Persecute (but that obviously matters). The removal of Circle of Protection: Red is actually the most important factor in The Rack’s loss of position. This hoser being rotated out of X removes the Krosan Grip / Seal of Primordium requirement levied on the Gruul or Red Decks, allowing them to move largely to Tin-Street Hooligan, or more importantly, Ancient Grudge. With Gruul, already the most successful deck, probably being the biggest gainer going into X Standard, this is a significant number of moving parts. We found in testing G/R versus The Rack that The Rack can conceivably win under very narrow circumstances. It will never win on fair offense, can oddly not actually win an attrition war despite having more two-for-ones than anybody, but it can definitely win by clearing the opponent’s grip and deploying even one copy of The Rack to race while chumping. So what does this have to do with Circle of Protection: Red? When the opponent is all Ancient Grudges, even two copies in the sideboard make The Rack’s life absolutely miserable. It is very difficult to disrupt Ancient Grudge due to the very nature of the card, and if the opponent draws one copy… well… that’s probably it for all the offense The Rack is going to draw in a game. We found it very difficult for the deck to breach like one Call of the Herd. The evolving Red Decks are now fundamentally resistant to Cruel Edict, though to be fair, Tarmogoyf has a gigantic target on his gigantic and undercosted body; get ready to get scared.
Winners: Dredge (possibly, but short term)
Losers: Dralnu, Dredge, The Rack
Neutral Decks
These decks seemed to me to have been played at about the correct levels for format equilibrium, not unpopular, not big press release decks, performing about as well as “they should have” in Top 8 action.
Zoo
I don’t know what made a man run the Zoo for Regionals. Good players and great deck designers like Lucas Glavin, Billy Moreno, and Osyp Lebedowicz have all been on Zoo during Time Spiral Standard but by Regionals… I’m not saying that Zoo isn’t good, but I just don’t know why you would play it. ffej protege DougP pwned in Canadian Regionals with his burning Jotun Grunt / Tarmogoyf deck, which seemed pretty awesome… I don’t know, just not my speed I guess.
Delta Position – I’ve always thought of Zoo as a deck with the most two-power one-drops into two three-power two-drops that also gets Lightning Helix, how greedy. Well, no Lions, no Apes… No Zoo? I don’t feel confident critiquing this wing because I didn’t see the incentive to Zoo to begin with, but it seemed fine… but no two-power one-drops… No Zoo? I’m speechless on this one.
U/R/W Solar Fire or Angel Variants
The incentive to this deck, traditionally, has been its ability to thump aggro decks. U/R/W has always had a reputation, possibly unfair, of being unable to beat other control decks (“a bye for Dralnu” according to my MSS Apprentices), and I can’t say I’ve ever been unhappy to face Angel with B/U/R. Still, it was great for me nine months ago, and its machinery (minus Zur’s Weirding, which had already been long abandoned) remains intact.
Delta Position – I think Angel is a big gainer for the upcoming format. It will always be in some wise niche, but its incentives are perhaps bigger now, and its enemies, Dralnu and Dragonstorm, will be less populous if they are there at all. The removal of Persecute helps Angel a great deal, allowing it to craft a long game more-or-less unmolested. Aura of Silence seems like a perfect compliment to this deck’s existing framework (out of the sideboard of course) on so many levels. While Angel will always be a hit-or-miss call, I think the chances of hitting have been increased.
‘Tron Decks
I never understand people’s opinions on this deck, which has clearly been awesome as long as the ‘Tron has been legal in Standard, from MWC to Tooth to BlueTooth to U/R to UUUBWW at Worlds to U/G Pickles. Sean McKeown said U/R ‘Tron was unplayable in Standard within about five seconds of its winning a Grand Prix; U/R ‘Tron was my only Swiss loss at Regionals. I can understand why it was no longer among the most popular decks in Standard, particularly due to the popularity of Dredge, but its abstract strengths are / were undeniable.
Delta Position – No ‘Tron. Will there be regular U/R Control or U/G decks? There will definitely be UUUBWW decks. Not enough data.
Winners: Angel
Neutral: Zoo
Losers: ‘Tron Decks
Underplayed Decks
Underplayed decks generally have the most value as a format approaches equilibrium. If you think about it mathematically, it makes a great deal of sense why that would be. Good rogue decks are always underplayed, and gain value by being unexpected (imagine if Dredge players hadn’t released hourly press releases about how mighty their deck is, and if the entire world hadn’t come packing 4+ sideboard cards any one of which could single-handedly win the game). The Adrian Sullivan definition of rogue is actually contingent on a deck being unexpected, even if it is theoretically known.
Project X
Project X was a kind of Daniel Gibson to this year’s Regionals, coming out of nowhere and hitting a ton of big threes, slaying giants even if it didn’t end up in first position. Essentially the opposite of Dralnu, Project X is the other side of the disconnect between MTGO and IRL. This deck proved to be a monster… yet due to the timing rules on MTGO has no metagame share there. I think it would be difficult for Project X to be any better in Standard pre-X than it ended up being, given its level of popularity, with the only real negative being now people know it is here and we can assume that they will play better against it than they may have (myself included).
Delta Position – Project X is the de facto best combo deck left in Standard. What does that mean? It is also a fair creature deck that wins a good number of games on traditional offense. While I still have a great deal of respect for this deck, I think it is a net loser with X for a reason that we have seen several times in this article already: Mogg Fanatic. It is awfully hard for Project X to go off against Mogg Fanatic. This deck doesn’t lose very much anywhere else, but I think it would be difficult to make the argument that it will continue to fall in the “underplayed” category, and lose value almost necessarily.
Korlash
This monster by Chapin was known going into Regionals, but just wasn’t taken seriously by enough players, I think. There is no way that this will continue to be the case, assuming the deck remains viable (and I see no indication why it shouldn’t).
Delta Position – Korlash was a coin flip against good Gruul going into U.S. Regionals, and the projected delta increase in popularity of Gruul-type decks dilutes its value somewhat. Persecute is a loss for the House Guard engine, but no Dragonstorm means that while it is a loss, that doesn’t necessarily mean that it is a gigantic one. I am pretty neutral on this deck in terms of its new position.
Hatching Plans Variants
It was never clear why this deck should exist. Was it actually better than Dragonstorm? Not clear. What seemed clear to me, though, was that it was not particularly popular despite being viable for sure. Had the ball rolled a little differently, I think we would have seen some measurable share to Billy Plans, and continued deck innovation… All of this is pretty moot now.
Delta Position – I find it difficult to imagine this deck without Seething Song.
Rakdos
BDM recently joked to me that some Magic analysts have never heard of “a ratio.” Rakdos was imminently viable for Regionals, and won nearly as many slots as some Top 4 played decks, more than others, despite being only a miniscule share of the metagame. I had Rakdos as my #2 deck for Regionals… I can’t imagine I would have done as well as I did with it, though, as Rakdos, being a tactical deck, tests very different skills than I am generally good at leveraging, plus I was very tired after about Round 5 and I can’t imagine making very good coin flip decisions approaching the Top 8.
Delta Position – You’d think that this deck would gain on Mogg Fanatic, but as Pat Sullivan pointed out to me, it only has one outstanding card… Which is just dead to Mogg Fanatic. Terror? Awesome! Mogg Fanatic and Incinerate? Rakdos will scoop them up as quickly as… um… Gruul. If not for the predicted popularity of Gruul, Rakdos might have been the biggest delta gainer in the entire room, but right now I can’t really imagine a way for Rakdos to keep Bobby in play long enough to win the tournament.
Go-Sis
Awesome deck, awesome designer, absolutely unstoppable finishes by population. What more is there to say?
Delta Position – Chapin’s Innovator Teachings is essentially the inheritor to Go-Sis, and has a lot of the same disincentives (notably speed, frequent clunkiness, and land speed). Joking aside, I told Patrick that as well as Innovator Teachings has been testing for him, I don’t see it as being the right choice for Nationals, or any tournament. I am a frequent sucker for mid-range manipulation decks with slow long games and answers for everyone; luckily I have GP Champ Sadin keeping my nose clean to some degree now, unlike when I donked us with Combo Deck last year. These decks always test well, which is why people like me like these decks so much… The problem is that in real tournament settings you can’t walk through the hard tutor choices and go back two turns to figure out what you should have done. The time limit problem is, well, a problem for certain.
The Legends of Team CMU
The Legends of Team CMU defines underplayed… Only one person played it, and the Top 8 finish is a good example of how an unknown deck that people don’t see coming can benefit from mis-aligned expectations and bad play (my own car-mates didn’t know how many Damnations were in my deck). If you want to get really sticky about definitions, The Legends of Team CMU was a bigger bomb than Dralnu or Dredge, with basically 0/1 in the “the only match that matters” category, but I don’t think anyone is going to hold that against the deck.
Delta Position – I am going go to out on a limb and say this deck receives a net gain. 1/x000s to even 1/x00s is a going to prove a solid leap in terms of popularity. The deck loses Persecute, but like Chapin Korlash, no longer needs Persecute to fight Dragonstorm and Plans decks, so that is a bit of a wash. A positive delta on Gruul is not necessarily good for The Legends of Team CMU because that increase is not necessarily up on the kind of Gruul Mishra wants to fight. That said, few decks can boast the X gains that this one can. Double Pithing Needle? Mind Stone incorporation? I’m going to make a major confession here and tell you that I haven’t been working on these mods at all, but they have been suggested to me by numerous sources. My guess is that Mishra gains but is still only a minor piece in the metagame puzzle.
Winners: The Legends of Team CMU
Neutral: Go-Sis, Korlash
Losers: Hatching Plans, Project X, Rakdos
Unpopular Decks
I was going to break all of these down but after half-writing half of the entries I realized you can only get cute so many times before it’s simply tiring. There is neither a Magnivore nor a Wildfire in X. There is no Savannah Lions. There is no Phyrexian Arena or Jester’s Cap. Blah. Of these stories, the only actually interesting one is straight G/W. On one hand, it is hard to justify straight G/W when you can play Project X (kind of like Loop Junktion versus Glavin Cephalid Brunch… Once you know better, why would you go there?). However, with Mogg Fanatic sort of holding down Project X from one side of the equation, but the G/W elements being solid against Fanatic.dec as a conflicting tension, the path is not altogether clear. Just something to think about.
Winners: Possibly G/W
Neutral: Probably G/W, possibly Orzhov
Losers: Vore (unplayable), B/R/W Angel (major), Boros (pretty bad), possibly Orzhov
LOVE
MIKE