I didn’t realize how much I missed the sheer chaos of the Nationals season until just this week. As the first wave of M10 Standard results come pouring in from across the globe and I work frantically to interpret what they mean for U.S. Nationals this weekend, I’m reminded of the madness of this time in years past. I remember Nationals in 1997, when the Buried Alive tech I was relying upon was revealed to the world the weekend before by the Canadians, and I was sent searching for answers to the Circle of Protection: Black and such things that would certainly appear. Necessity is the mother of invention, as they say, and my resulting multicolor Buried Alive deck that nearly earned me a Top 8 finish at that event remains one of my favorite decks ever, complete with the sideboard Armageddon that is the star of one of Mike Flores most often told stories.
From the rumblings around the net in the wake of last weekend’s results, it’s apparent that many U.S. Nationals competitors feel much the same way about the Elf deck that dominated Australian and Japanese Nationals alike. I alluded to the deck as a potential dark horse in my article last week, and if a full 50% of the national team spots available in the Pacific last weekend is any indication, it’s gone from dark horse to a front runner in the format, especially with players of the pedigree of Kenji Tsumura and Masashi Oiso choosing to run the deck:
Creatures (36)
- 4 Llanowar Elves
- 1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
- 1 Cloudthresher
- 4 Heritage Druid
- 4 Devoted Druid
- 4 Nettle Sentinel
- 4 Regal Force
- 4 Ranger of Eos
- 4 Elvish Visionary
- 2 Noble Hierarch
- 4 Elvish Archdruid
Lands (20)
Spells (4)
The Elf combo deck is not new to Standard, but Elvish Archdruid is, and the combination of the new Elf lord and Zealous Persecution fading away has apparently put this deck over the top. Osyp managed a finals appearance a NYC PTQ with the deck and likened its power to that of Affinity. Much like Affinity, I expect players will drastically underestimate how resilient this deck is. Not only is the deck capable of absurdly explosive starts, it also has tremendous staying power, and in the hands of a good player can easily beat many of the kinds of effects that would seem like a problem on paper.
Do not simply add a few Jund Charms or Infests to your sideboard and think that’s all you need to beat Combo Elves — you will be sorely disappointed. The key cards to stop in the deck are the mana engine — Heritage Druid and Elvish Archdruid — but it is Ranger of Eos that lets the deck win even in the face of mass removal spells everywhere. The best deck for handling this new Elven threat is one packing both spot removal and mass removal to pick apart the mana engine, and countermagic to stop Ranger of Eos from putting all of the pieces back together.
Like so.
Creatures (9)
Lands (26)
Spells (25)
It is not at all surprising to me that Shuhei took the crown in the Elf-infested Top 8. His deck is reminiscent of Gabriel Nassif Kyoto winning deck, with Plumeveils and Volcanic Fallouts keeping the Kithkin, Elf, and Faerie hordes at bay. Spot removal, mass removal, countermagic – this deck really has everything it needs to take down creature decks. The full 4 Volcanic Fallouts in the main and 4 Great Sable Stag in the sideboard gives the deck tremendous game against Faeries, as can be seen in Shuhei’s 3-1 victory over former Rookie of the Year Yuuya Watanabe in the finals. Typically, Five-Color Control has to choose whether to beat creature decks or Faeries, but the power of the full eight uncounterables let Shuhei run a main deck that was chock full of anti-creature cards while still giving him solid game against the Fae. The rise of Elves and resurgence of Kithkin and Faeries not only created a field that was perfect prey for Shuhei Five-Color Control deck, but also pushed Anathamancer down on the metagame totem pole. I expect many players to shuffle up something similar to Shuhei’s 75 at U.S. Nationals this weekend, although I’m sure many won’t give up on old faithful.
Creatures (15)
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (25)
Spells (18)
Creatures (20)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (25)
Spells (12)
Sideboard
While everyone knew Kithkin was one of the decks to beat going into M10 Standard, the same could not be said of the blue menace. It seems, however, that rumors of the demise of Faeries have clearly been greatly exaggerated. Even with the new Great Sable Stag (who I have taken to calling ” The Great Green Hope”) showing up in virtually any deck that can support it, Faeries still performed remarkably well on the weekend, securing spots on both the Australian and Japanese national teams. Faeries has long been the beneficiary of the same phenomenon that I expect will bolster Elves results in upcoming weeks: people just assume that they will beat it with their sideboard cards. While Great Sable Stag is the real deal, it is not enough to simply take a deck that is vulnerable to Faeries and sideboard 4 Stags and expect to win. Mistbind Clique, Cryptic Command, and Mutavault make for some powerful racing tools, even against the Great Green Hope. Don’t get cocky — give Faeries the respect they have earned. If you really want to beat Faeries, go the route Shuhei did and play the full eight hosers, but know that even that is no guarantee.
Kithkin didn’t have the kind of performance this past weekend that one might have expected from the presumed front runner going into M10 Standard, but being the deck to beat has its disadvantages. I expect Kithkin — or at least aggressive White decks — to show up in force in the coming weeks, since the strategy is both powerful and straightforward. An interesting take on the Honor of the Pure skeleton that I’ve seen are decks that cut the heavy Kithkin theme in favor of cards like White Knight and Stillmoon Cavalier main, giving up raw power for some metagame strength. I would not be surprised to see similar strategies crop up at the upcoming nationals, perhaps with Ethersworn Canonist in the maindeck to combat Elves. There were some interesting Soldier builds floating around with Preeminant Captain playing the part of Goblin Lackey to Captain of the Watch’s Siege-Gang Commander, but I can’t see that taking off too much when cheap mass removal is already popular to fight both Elves and Spectral Procession.
These four are certainly the decks to beat going into the second week of M10 Standard. My guess is that Elves and Faeries will see the most play at U.S. Nationals, the former because of its sheer power and the latter because of players’ familiarity with it and its ability to be tuned to beat Elves. I’d be shocked if Infest didn’t make its way into more Faerie sideboards against both Elves and Kithkin. I expect the number of Essence Scatters to rise as a way to stop the backbreaking Ranger of Eos, and I’m certain that the Warren Wierding tech that Wanatabe showed off at Japanese Nationals will become more widespread. I expect Five-Color Control will be a popular choice among pros, since it doesn’t really have any really bad matchups among the top decks and provides a lot of flexibility and the chance to outplay opponents.
There were a number of other interesting decks that sprung up at various tournaments over the weekend, but I don’t think any of them have the pedigree of these four. I really liked the Soul Manipulation/Makeshift Mannequin deck Aaron Nicastri played in Australia and wanted it to be good, but I can’t for the life of me imagine how it could consistently beat Faeries. I could see the Aggro Jund Cascade decks or Five-Color Bloodbraid being decent choices, and they had solid finishes in Australia, but I don’t feel like they’re on quite the same level as the big four. I want to believe Steve Sadin Five-Color Cascade deck is good, but I really can’t envision a deck with no plays that impact the board before turn 3 can be the right choice in a format where you can have already lost by then.
I’m still not sure what I’ll be playing. I want to find something outside the established metagame, but the big four decks are so powerful that it’s hard to find something that can handle all of them. Hopefully I’ll have my deck by the time you’re reading this, at least, since I’ll be playing in Nationals Friday morning!
I will be doing round-by-round Twitter updates, so if you want to follow along with my progress and the story of U.S. Nationals as it unfolds, follow me at bmkibler. I had a lot of fun with my Twitter feed at PT: Hawaii and really appreciated all the support as the tournament went on. Hopefully I can put up as good a show this time!
Until next week!
bmk
Bonus Hall of Fame Section
So it’s time to vote for the Hall of Fame. I am fortunate enough both to be eligible for the Hall and have a selection committee vote, although not quite so fortunate as to be allowed to vote for myself since the rules prevent me from doing so. I will not try to make my own case for the Hall of Fame here, but rather explain my own ballot and my reasoning behind it.
#1: Chris Pikula.
I list Chris first because I feel like he is the most important person on my ballot in some ways. While many people seem to vote primarily based on the various statistics each player has racked up, I feel like the Hall of Fame should showcase not only the winningest players in Magic, but also those who made the Pro Tour what it is today. Chris is one of those people. He was not only a consummate storyteller who entertained anyone within earshot, but also a constant crusader for fair play. He was my predecessor in the commentary booth, and while I’m sure you’re all thrilled that you can find all the archived Top 8 broadcasts that I did in my day, I for one am quite disappointed that Pikula’s repartee has been lost to time.
When Meddling Mage was reprinted earlier this year without Chris’s image, I feel like Wizards lost a great opportunity to highlight one of their star players from years past. The fact that Chris has gone on from Magic to a very successful career on Wall Street and raise a family makes me feel that way even more. Chris is a great example of a onetime Magic great who has thrived in the years since he’s left the game — and in a much more family-friendly way than the legions of poker players out there. I think Chris is someone who is great for the game, and who deserves his place among the greats of the game for all he contributed to the history of the Pro Tour.
#2: Steve OMS
Steve was one of the most dominant players in Magic’s early years. Even before the pro tour, he was one of the New York kids who dominated tournaments all over the East coast. I remember going to the Grey Matter 1k tournaments way back when, and Steve was one of the most feared player there, along with his brother Dan and some goofy looking kid with a fro named Jon Finkel. Steve’s accomplishments were overshadowed a bit by his association with Jon, I think. He was one of the original road warriors, traveling overseas to Grand Prix long before anyone had ever heard of Olivier Ruel. With a Pro tour win among his three top 8s, and nine grand prix Top 8’s under his belt, Steve’s numbers are certainly very competitive, and I feel his success on the Pro Tour and his role in forming the pre-Pro Tour Northeast Magic scene put him over the top as a contender for the Hall of Fame.
#3: Justin Gary
Speaking of people overshadowed by his teammates, Justin is the last remaining Your Move Games mainstay who is not in the Hall of Fame. While he wasn’t a part of the original three man team, Justin was a major part of YMG’s success over the years, and was the winner of PT: Houston that YMG so utterly dominated. Not only does Justin have four PT top 8 finishes to his credit, but he was also the most consistent player on the pro tour for a long time. Back when Mindripper published its first “Power Rankings”, an evaluation of player performance that was much less top-heavy than the PT point system, Justin was firmly #1. His median finish at his peak was something like 20th, which is truly outrageous. I imagine much like if Steve hadn’t been Finkel’s teammate that he would have gotten much more attention in his career, if Justin hadn’t worn the YMG dragon, he would have been inducted into the Hall of Fame already. He deserves it.
#4: Kamiel Cornelisson
I don’t feel like I have to say much about Kamiel. After he burst onto the Pro Tour with back to back finals finishes at PT: Chicago (Ahhhh Chicago!) and PT: LA, he quietly just kept racking up results event after event. Unfortunately for him, he may be best remembered for his remarkable crash and burn at PT: San Diego, where he started the tournament 7-0 and ended 0-7, to the extent that squandering an undefeated day 1 record is known among pros as “pulling a Kamiel.” Well, I hope Kamiel will soon have a Hall of Fame ring to make that memory sting just a bit less. He deserves to be a first class inductee.
#5: Antoine Ruel
When I first started playing Magic, I played against my brother all of the time. To this day he insists that he was the one who got me into the game, but I know I was the one who bought our first packs. At the first Regionals championship we attended together back in 1996, my brother finished in the Top 32 and qualified for Nationals with a deck I built for him, while I failed to qualify and resolved to do better than my brother in the future. If doing better than my brother was a motivator for me, I can only imagine what it must have been like for Antoine Ruel. He’s certainly made a go of it, though, with a Pro Tour win and invitational victory among his many accolades. On top of his results, Antoine is charismatic and friendly, a great ambassador for the game, as well as a regular contributor to various French Magic publications.
So there you have it — my 2009 Hall of Fame ballot. Good luck to all of my fellow candidates, and thank you to everyone who has voted for me. It’s an honor to be considered for inclusion with the greats of the game.