Welcome to the second week of my Financial Value of Oath of the Gatewatch articles! It’s a new year, and with it comes a lot of new spoilers. There’s a lot of ground to cover today, so let’s look at the cards spoiled over the past few days.
How I Review
Starting Price: The first price we assign to this card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card, by the time this article was written (usually by midnight on the day of publication).
Future Price – Low: The lowest price I believe this card will hit while it is Standard legal, post-release.
Future Price – High: The highest price I believe this card will hit while it is Standard legal, post-release.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $2
Current Price: $2
Future Price – Low: $1
Future Price – High: $4
Thoughts: Eldrazi decks are going to see play in Standard (more on this in a second), and the value of Corrupted Crossroads will rise and fall with the popularity of the Standard-version Eldrazi deck. I expect this to spike after release, and then drop down to the value of stuff like Ally Encampment.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $4
Current Price: $5
Future Price – Low: $3
Future Price – High: $8
Thoughts: This may be the best card in the set. The Modern Eldrazi deck (Eye of Ugin/Eldrazi Temple) loves this card. The Standard-legal Eldrazi deck will use this as a staple. Non-Eldrazi decks will run this as a staple because its ability is insane – multiple-use blink effect (for three mana a turn) that can remove blockers, recur Siege Rhino, and destroy tokens on a body that is totally on curve is amazing. There is no downside to Eldrazi Displacer, and it is easily splashed into any number of decks in Standard (and will be played in Modern). This’ll spike initially, and then settle down in the $3-$5 range (just like Siege Rhino did), so the current price is going to be low until set redemptions happen.
Rarity: Mythic
Starting Price: $6
Current Price: $6
Future Price – Low: $3
Future Price – High: $5
Thoughts: Four for a 3/4 creature is below the curve, as far as bodies go. In a world where Siege Rhino is the standard (4/5 and drain three for four mana), Kalitas starts out with a pretty big disadvantage. Are lifelink, Husk, and Zombie-generating abilities enough to make Kalitas playable? I’ll admit that altogether this is an intriguing package, but one that I think will not end up making the cut in the current Standard.
Kozilek’s Return
Rarity: Mythic
Starting Price: $8
Current Price: $10
Future Price – Low: $5
Future Price – High: $15
Thoughts: Should spike right after release because it’ll be played in Modern and Standard. Deals with a ton of problematic two-toughness or less pro-red creatures (Mirran Crusader, Master of Waves, Etched Champion), works as a great board sweeper in general, and will occasionally be a free board-sweeper in Tron or Standard Eldrazi decks. Will be a staple, but unclear if it’s going to be mainly a sideboard card, or a maindeck sweeper (a la Volcanic Fallout).
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $2
Current Price: $2
Future Price – Low: $1
Future Price – High: $2
Thoughts: So now that three of the (presumably) four Oaths have been spoiled, I’m excited to see Oath of Chandra. This cycle has felt really well designed, though Oath of Gideon is probably the weakest of the three that were spoiled so far. Three mana for two 1/1 creatures isn’t fantastic, though it does help that they are Ally creatures. The second ability on Oath of Gideon is the meat of this card for a planeswalker-centric deck, but drawing multiples won’t really benefit you (legendary enchantment). Should be extremely popular with casual players, and may see play if Superfriends makes a return in Standard.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $3
Current Price: $4
Future Price – Low: $3
Future Price – High: $5
Thoughts: Better than Anticipate (by two mana), just fine in multiples (you only care about the first ability triggering with the second one you play), capable of smoothing out your draw earlygame, and that’s before we even look at the second ability. I’d be hard-pressed to think of a deck that runs green that wouldn’t want to run this in Standard, and it’s amazing mana-fixing if you’re playing a larger-than-average number of planeswalkers. Oath of Nissa is good enough that it’s going to see play in older formats, potentially further back than Modern (though I don’t think it’ll be widely played in Legacy). Will be a staple card in Standard for the next year.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $1
Current Price: $1
Future Price – Low: $0.50
Future Price – High: $1
Thoughts: Should see play if Standard Eldrazi takes off, but likely not going to see play in the Modern version of the deck, thanks to Eldrazi Displacer taking the place that this (or some other Eldrazi) might have taken up as a replacement in that deck. Would be better if it triggered off itself dying. Not hopeless, but probably just shy of being tournament played.
Rarity: Mythic
Starting Price: $3
Current Price: $3
Future Price – Low: $3
Future Price – High: $5
Thoughts: Currently undervalued. This is going to find a place as a finisher multiple times in the coming eighteen months in Standard – but it’ll constantly cycle in/out of popularity as it is heavily metagame-dependent. Extremely good for Commander, and has some potential for Modern as well. There’s talk about this being a reanimation target in older formats (Legacy/Vintage), but I’m not bullish on that use.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $3
Current Price: $4
Future Price – Low: $2
Future Price – High: $5
Thoughts: Will go up slightly after release, and then drop down to about the same value as the current BFZ creature-lands. Of the current three spoiled, this is the second-best (or second-worst) – with Hissing Quagmire being the best and Needle Spires being the worst.
Rarity: Mythic
Starting Price: $3
Current Price: $3
Future Price – Low: $3
Future Price – High: $10
Thoughts: The $10 value on World Breaker is based on the casual value this card will have over time. The original mythic Eldrazi from Rise of the Eldrazi all hit the $20-$40 range because of casual play, and World Breaker is along that mold. Creeping Mold + self-reanimation means that World Breaker will probably see some amount of play in Standard (mostly sideboard), and it’s a nice one-of for Eye of Ugin or in Tron. I expect it to be in the $3-$5 range for the first year, and then jump to around $10 right around the time next year’s spring set comes out.
Pack Value
There are 42 Rares and 12 Mythics in this set. Expeditions add $0.80 per-pack value, so we start at $0.80 and add the following:
2R + 1M (Each Rare is printed twice against each Mythic) / 96 (84 Rares/12 Mythics) * 36 (36 packs/box)
Mythics of Note ($4+)
Kozilek’s Return: $10
Kozilek, the Great Distortion: $15 (+$2.50 since last update)
Mirrorpool: $5
Nissa, Voice of Zendikar: $25 (+$10 since last update)
Total: $71
Rares of Note ($2+)
Call the Gatewatch: $2 (+$1 since last update)
Goblin Dark-Dwellers: $4 (+$1 since last update)
Hissing Quagmire: $4
Needle Spires: $3
Oath of Gideon: $2
Oath of Jace; $2
Oath of Nissa: $4
Total: $39
2R ($78) + 1M ($71) = $149 / 96 = $1.55 value per pack.
Add in $0.80 for Expeditions = $2.35 per Pack, or $84.60 per box.
Right now there are 28/42 Rares spoiled (14 left to go, none of which were leaked), and 10/12 Mythics spoiled (2 left to go, with Chandra already leaked). At this rate the full set will be spoiled by this Friday, and I’ll be ready to discuss foils at the end of this week!