Whenever a big tournament occurs, there’s always a brief frenzy after the results are made public. New technology is quickly disseminated, and metagames begin to shift towards whatever deck comes out of the tournament in the limelight. Last week’s StarCityGames.com Open: Baltimore is no exception. Merfolk came out of the tournament on top, but Vengevine Survival decks continued to exert their dominance over StarCityGames.com Open tournaments. Still, the immediate impact of Baltimore is unclear. What decks will be popular going forward? Which lists should be used for gauntlet testing?
A couple of years ago, Richard Feldman wrote
a masterful article
detailing how to analyze the results from a major tournament and apply them to both your testing process and your metagame predictions for the next tournament. I’m going to look at the results from the Legacy portion of Baltimore’s StarCityGames.com Open using Richard’s methodology: Looking at who played which decks, looking at specific card choices, closely reading all of the coverage, and then drawing some conclusions about the expected metagame going forward.
Step 1: Note who played which Archetypes in the Top (strike)8(/strike) 16
Because StarCityGames.com publishes the top sixteen decklists, not just the top eight, all of the lists receive more or less equal press, so I’ll be looking at all of them in this article.
Relatively few Pro players routinely attend the StarCityGames.com Legacy Opens, so it’s unsurprising that the only “name” player in the professional sense of the word in the top sixteen at Baltimore was Sam Black, who played Lands to a sixteenth place finish.
However, despite the lack of noted pros in attendance, there were a few players in the top sixteen of Baltimore who are well known in Legacy circles:
-
Alex Bertoncini has been crushing StarCityGames.com tournaments since before the StarCityGames.com Open circuit existed, and is currently the leader
of the StarCityGames.com Player of the Year race. I would expect Merfolk players to look long and hard at
his Merfolk list
when deciding on their final build. -
Alix Hatfield, one of the designers of Threshold and one of the early proponents of Zoo, is widely known as a Legacy ringer, and he made it to fifteenth place with his
unique take on the synergy between Vengevine and Survival of the Fittest
. -
Daniel Signorini is one of the original designers of Team America; his third-place list should probably be
the default gauntlet Team America list now
. -
It’s also worth noting that Blake Patraw’s second-place finish has given him back-to-back top eight finishes with
Survival Madness
, which perhaps makes his list more relevant than it might be otherwise.
Step 2: Examine the Card Choices of the Top 16 Decks
First, the Merfolk decks: Paul Lynch won the tournament with a white splash in
his Merfolk deck
, giving him access to three maindeck copies of Swords to Plowshares and three copies of Absolute Law out of the board. Merfolk’s detractors occasionally point to Merfolk’s lack of removal as a problem, and Paul has addressed that. He also gets Absolute Law to protect his lords from Zoo’s burn spells after sideboarding.
However, to make room for Plow, Paul has cut into his creature count, with only nineteen creatures and no copies of either Kira, Great-Glass Spinner or
Merfolk Sovereign in his deck. Contrast Paul’s build with
Daniel Samson’s
, which employs the black splash made popular by
Tomoharu Saito at Grand Prix Columbus
to gain access to Perish out of the sideboard to fight green aggressive decks.
Aside from which colors (if any) to splash, the main difference between the various Merfolk lists appears to be whether or not to maindeck Standstill
and what sort of permission package is best. Both Paul and Saito had all four Standstills in the maindeck, but
Alex Bertoncini decided to forgo Standstill
so that he could make room for more creatures. Three copies of Kira give Alex a lot of resiliency to spot removal, and Merfolk Sovereign helps take advantage of that.
Alex also didn’t run any copies of Spell Pierce in his maindeck, where Paul,
Thomas Walck
, and Daniel all ran multiple copies. Ryan Pawlick only had a single Pierce.
It appears that once a Merfolk player has put Standstill into the maindeck, he’s implicitly stating that he expects more control and combo decks and fewer aggro decks in the metagame. After all, Standstill is pretty bad when your opponent leads with Wild Nacatl. However, if there aren’t very many Zoo players in the room, then Spell Pierce starts to look pretty attractive; I suspect this is the reason for the correlation between Standstill and Spell Pierce. It’s therefore a reasonable assumption that if your opponent plays a Standstill, you might want to watch out for Spell Pierce.
Note that sideboard technology for the Merfolk mirror appears to be a combination of Umezawa’s Jitte and Llawan, Cephalid Empress. Also, be aware of Back to Basics out of the mono-Blue Merfolk decks if you’re a polychromatic control deck.
It’s difficult to say which Merfolk list will be most popular going forward. Saito’s list from Columbus has certainly enjoyed the most press recently — but this isn’t the first time that Alex’s list with multiple Kiras has done well at a StarCityGames.com Open. If you only have time to test against one list of Merfolk, I’d suggest testing against whatever version is hardest for you to beat, but you should also recognize that Kira has a pretty significant impact on games that you can’t just infer based on how games go against Merfolk lists with Standstill.
Next, the Vengevine Survival decks:
Blake Patraw’s maindeck
is
virtually the same as
Caleb Durward’s original list from Columbus
.
Justin Cavanaugh’s list is similar
, though he has fewer Jittes and more counterspells (including the full package of four Stifle) than Blake and Caleb.
However, Eli Kassis took
an entirely different direction with his version
, cutting the Aquamoebas and Jittes, lowering his creature count, and making room for Brainstorm, Intuition and Swords to Plowshares. Cutting some creatures makes Eli’s copies of Survival of the Fittest a little worse, but he does gain the ability to Intuition for Vengevine in circumstances where he doesn’t have Survival going. Intuition raises Eli’s curve a bit, so the Wastelands have been cut.
Still, with such a low creature count, I’d be a little worried about Eli’s ability to trigger Vengevine when he doesn’t have Survival going. You can Intuition for Survival, sure…but that’s pretty slow, and Brainstorm only goes so far to make up for it, especially with only twelve ways to both cast Brainstorm on turn 1 and stay on curve for Survival.
As far as sideboards go, Blake has added Mind Harness to fight Zoo decks and has innovated Scryb Ranger to help out against Merfolk — the Ranger both blocks a flying Coralhelm Commander
and
returns Tropical Island to Blake’s hand to fight islandwalk. Very interesting.
Eli and Justin, on the other hand, have taken a more aggressive sideboard plan in the form of Natural Order and Progenitus. Dryad Arbor helps provide enough Green creatures to fuel Natural Order, and it’s pretty tough for most decks to fight Progenitus these days.
Alix Hatfield’s take on Vengevine Survival is a pretty radical departure from Caleb’s, but it’s still exciting. Lion’s Eye Diamond can enable a turn 1 Vengevine, along with Basking Rootwalla and Arrogant Wurm. Combined with a Root Maze on turn 1, that’s a pretty powerful draw. Alix also retains the powerful Survival engine, and has Lumbering Satyr (!) as a mirror trump after sideboarding. Vines of Vastwood is a pretty sweet answer to people trying to Lightning Bolt your Vengevines as well.
I would probably assume that most people would stick to a Vengevine list fairly similar to Blake’s, with Wastelands and with no Intuitions…but that Natural Order package is something that you should keep in mind after sideboarding. You might also be wary if it looks like your opponent might be setting up a Lumbering Satyr alpha strike.
Both
James Peyton
and
Nick DiTizio
pretty stock Tendrils lists that are more or less the same as
Bryant Cook list from Columbus
. At least for now,
it appears that the five-color Burning Wish builds are more popular and successful than the two-color list pioneered by
Ari Lax at Columbus
.
Daniel Signorini’s
Team America list
is mostly notable for its lack of hand disruption and the Snuff Out/Maelstrom Pulse removal package. Zero-mana removal spells are always something to be aware of — and despite how powerful Jace, the Mind Sculptor is against Tombstalker, now you have to recognize that Maelstrom Pulse can answer your planeswalker. Note the Dispels in Signorini’s sideboard; your Force of Wills are not safe, no matter how much mana you have untapped.
Nathaniel Chafe’s Survival deck
is essentially the same as what Patrick Chapin played in Grand Prix Columbus. Fauna Shaman and Survival of the Fittest allow Nathaniel to use Loyal Retainers to cheat Iona, Shield of Emeria or Emrakul, the Aeons Torn into play (often with haste, thanks to Anger). He also has access to Big Game Hunter, Magus of the Moon, and Spore Frog as maindeck bullets….and has a dozen more in the sideboard. Goblin Pyromancer is a particularly hilarious one, but as Rich Shay pointed out last week, Peacekeeper is
a powerful option against both Merfolk and Vengevine Survival
. These sorts of Survival decks have access to just about any creature bullet they want…and with Fauna Shaman and Survival of the Fittest, they have plenty of redundancy to find it.
Kevin Kehoe’s Zoo list
is fairly stock, although he’s eschewed Price of Progress entirely to play more copies of Sylvan Library and some maindeck Fireblasts. Control players should take note of Kevin’s Chokes, and the combo players should watch out for his Mindbreak Traps.
Nick Walters’ list
looks like a Painter’s Servant/Grindstone combo deck at first glance — but with only two Servants and one Grindstone, it becomes apparent that Nick isn’t exactly trying to kill people on turn 3. Instead, Nick has added the combo to his Counterbalance deck in order to add a cleaner kill when his Tarmogoyfs are forced to stay on defense. Brainstorm, Ponder, and Sensei’s Divining Top provide plenty of ways to find Painter’s Servant, and a small Trinket Mage package allows Nick to include Grindstone at a pretty low cost. The maindeck Firespouts are pretty effective against all of the aggro decks running around.
I don’t love Nick’s Taigas, because they don’t cast Counterbalance on turn 2, but he is boarding in Krosan Grip and Red Elemental Blast to go with his Blue cards after sideboarding, so perhaps they are necessary.
Sam Black
Lands decklist
was a sharp departure from the Blue-based builds with Intuitions pioneered by Chris Woltereck at previous StarCityGames.com Opens. Sam has Gamble and Entomb in lieu of Intuition to find Life from the Loam and matchup-specific bullets, and has eschewed many traditional maindeck bullets (Smokestack, Engineered Explosives, Mindslaver) in favor of the Entombs and a couple of extra lands. Given that the version of Lands with the Blue splash hasn’t enjoyed much success recently, it’s reasonable to assume that those with Tabernacles will be looking hard at Sam’s list in their preparations for the Nashville StarCityGames.com Open.
Step 3: Read all the Coverage
Reading through all of the coverage can help you pick out card choices you might have missed and learn new tactical interactions. You might not learn anything groundbreaking — but as Richard Feldman says, “discovering one play per tournament that you did not think of can make a significant impact on your play at the next [tournament].”
Indeed, analysis of the coverage reveals some interesting technology and some interesting plays. Oracle of Mul Daya in Lands is a pretty sweet idea,
and one that you’d miss if you skipped Ken Adams’
round six feature match
.
The coverage also shows that it might be dangerous just to assume who is favored in a matchup based on a single match result.
Blake Patraw beat Jimmy Peyton in the quarterfinals
, but the coverage of game three reveals a potential error on Jimmy’s part: according to the coverage, Jimmy used Pyroblast to counter Blake’s Trygon Predator, then untapped and tried to go off. It looks like Jimmy’s business spell was Burning Wish, and Blake countered it with Force of Will rather than let Jimmy have access to Tendrils of Agony or Empty the Warrens. However, Jimmy was able to resolve a second Burning Wish; unfortunately, he only had three mana after Wishing, and all of his win conditions cost four. The coverage is vague on specifics, but we know that Jimmy had access to two Red mana because he cast a second Burning Wish; saving the Pyroblast for Blake’s Force would have let Jimmy resolve Burning Wish with four mana in his pool, which implies that he could at least buy several turns with Tendrils of Agony if not kill Blake outright.
(And, of course, if Jimmy had won, it would be just as dangerous to assume that Tendrils is the favorite in the matchup; Blake mulliganed down to four in game one, after all.).
Careful reading of the remainder of the elimination rounds shows other interesting strategic and tactical decisions. In
his quarterfinal matchup
, playing Team America, Daniel Signorini kept Ponder, Wasteland, Underground Sea and spells for game two against Merfolk. Daniel’s Ponder missed on lands, and when his Sea got hit by Wasteland, Daniel couldn’t play any spells and had to start discarding. Hands with only a single nonbasic land are pretty dangerous against Wasteland decks.
In
the finals
, Blake Patraw showed another clever reason to only fetch basic Forests against Merfolk: if you don’t have an Island, your opponent can’t swim past your blockers with Lord of Atlantis. However, Forests can enable Noble Hierarch, ensuring access to all of your Blue spells anyway. Clever.
Step 4: Consider a deck change
How is Baltimore going to affect the Legacy metagame?
The big winners from Baltimore were Merfolk and Vengevine Survival, so it’s reasonable to assume that both decks will be pretty prominent at upcoming tournaments, especially at the StarCityGames.com Open: Nashville. I would expect Vengevine Survival to be particularly popular. Not only has the deck has done extremely well at the last two StarCityGames.com Opens, but it’s also fun to play. Survival is aggressive, but has a powerful hyper-combo finish and
still
fits in Force of Will — which many people refuse to play Legacy without. Because the deck plays Survival of the Fittest, it’s also extremely customizable; people can add silver bullets to suit their play style and metagame.
Merfolk is on the rise as a perceived foil to Vengevine Survival; Llawans are popping up in Vengevine sideboards for a reason. If Merfolk can contain the Survivals, beating a 4/3 isn’t too hard if Merfolk can find a lord and a Silvergill Adept. The Survival decks have Wonder, sure, but Merfolk has Lord of Atlantis and Merrow Reejerey to sneak in damage as well.
Of course, Merfolk isn’t the only deck that can handle Vengevines if Survival can stay off the table. I would expect Counterbalance players to adapt to
the new Survival menace by adapting more Spell Snares in their maindecks.
Tom Martell maindecked two in Columbus
, but I can see that number increasing even higher; Snare also fights all of Survival’s other two-drops that form the rest of the engine, as well as Tarmogoyf, Lord of Atlantis, Infernal Tutor, and Counterbalance itself. Zoo might rise up to start preying on the Merfolk decks, but it appears that maindeck Firespout is now in vogue in Counterbalance deck, which goes pretty far in helping Counterbalance out in that matchup.
Switching to a combo deck isn’t out of the question either, but the combo decks tend to perform better in fields where Zoo is running rampant, not when most of the decks in elimination rounds are packing Force of Will. Tendrils
can
beat Force, sure…but let’s be honest, if you’re a combo deck, you want to play against Wild Nacatl as often as possible. You can extrapolate from this that because there aren’t that many non-Force aggro decks running around these days, there also won’t be too many combo decks to punish them, and perhaps lighten up the hate somewhat — though two Tendrils decks in the top sixteen is still a respectable showing.
You could, of course, simply switch to Vengevine Survival yourself. It’s no accident that the deck has been crushing essentially every major tournament since its Columbus debut. Recognize that mirror matches exist, though…what’s the next step after people get to Lumbering Satyr?
I hope that both the analysis and the framework for future analysis in this article has been helpful. Gigantic thanks to Richard Feldman for his original article, and good luck in Nashville!
Max McCall
max dot mccall at gmail dot com