Hurt Me Plenty, Level 5: Jack Davis on Wirewood Hivemaster
Play: Jack has Intruder Alarm, Bloodline Shaman, Birchlore Rangers, and Wirewood Hivemaster. Ferrett does nothing as Jack:
1) Taps Bloodline Shaman and moves Forest from his library to his graveyard
2) Taps Birchlore Rangers and Wirewood Hivemaster to play Elvish Scrapper
3) Untaps all creatures and puts a 1/1 Insect into play
4) Untaps all creatures again
5) Taps Shaman and moves Lightning Greaves from his library to his graveyard.
6) Taps all four creatures to play Wellwisher
7) Untaps all creatures and puts a 1/1 Insect into play
8) Untaps all creatures again
9) Taps Shaman, moves Wirewood Hivemaster to his hand and plays it
10) Untaps all creatures and puts a 1/1 Insect into play
11) Untaps all creatures again
12) Taps Shaman and moves Forest from his library to his graveyard
WTF?!?!
CA (Jack)
-0 (Rule 5: Forest moves from Jack’s library to his graveyard due to Shaman)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Scrapper moves from Jack’s hand to the board)
+1 (Rule 2: 1/1 Insect moves to the board)
-0 (Rule 5: Greaves moves from Jack’s library to his graveyard due to Shaman)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Wellwisher moves from Jack’s hand to the board)
+1 (Rule 2: 1/1 Insect moves to the board)
+1 (Rule 1/2: Wirewood Hivemaster moves from Jack’s library to the board)
+1 (Rule 2: 1/1 Insect moves to the board)
-0 (Rule 5: Forest moves from Jack’s library to his graveyard due to Shaman)
CA (Ferrett)
-0 (does nothing but watch in envy)
Total CA: CA (Jack) – CA (Ferrett) = +4 – 0 = +4 CA
Jack says he’s”old,” a social activist and”the ultimate Green Johnny.” He’s from Wisconsin and plays Type I, Type II, and casual and multiplayer formats. He also reminds me of the good old Recycle and Vitalize Elf hilarity, sigh.
T.H.E.F.U.C.C. handles this easily, but there’s more.
You should also conclude that Bloodline Shaman should be used as aggressively as possible.
If the next card isn’t an Elf, you lose nothing. If it is, though, you gain another Elf plus Insects, untap everything, and use Shaman again.
Ultra-Violence, Level 1: Zvi Mowshowitz on Sarcomancy
Play: Zvi plays Lightning Bolt on Knut’s Sarcomancy token. Knut screams that Star City still has more hits. WTF?
CA (Zvi)
-1 (Rule 1: Lightning Bolt leaves Zvi’s hand)
+1 (Rule 3: Knut’s Sarcomancy stops being dead and practically defects to Zvi)
CA (Knut)
-1 (Rule 2: Zombie token leaves Knut’s side of the board)
Total CA: CA (Zvi) – CA (Knut) = 0 – -1 = +1 CA
Zvi currently writes for a certain Premium website, ran an annoying Type I mono-Blue decklist with four Fact or Fictions in the Invitational, has made more money and Misetings.com appearances than I ever have, and is generally considered the second most long-winded Magic writer to date due to”My Fires.”
First, playing Sarcomancy is +0 CA, Sarcomancy itself counted as dead (obviously, it’s not better than Carnophage, and Rule 3 handles that).
However, Zvi and I agreed that killing the Zombie isn’t a mere trade, since the opponent gains a slight advantage.
Rule 3d counts this elegantly.
Ultra-Violence, Level 2: Timothy Ray Underwood on Future Sight
Play: Tim plays Future Sight. Ferrett does nothing. WTF?
CA (Tim)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Future Sight leaves Tim’s hand and moves onto the board)
-1 (Rule 3: Future Sight has no further effect not covered by Rule 1)
+X (Rule 1: A card is played as though it’s in Tim’s hand. When it’s played, another is played this way, and so on. X is the number of cards you play.)
CA (Ferrett)
-0 (does nothing)
Total CA: CA (Tim) – CA (Ferrett) = (-1 + X) – 0 = X – 1 CA
Tim is an Ohio Northern University, taking Psychology and Philosophy.
Crafting a general rule here is similar to Wheel of Fortune, but far more complicated since each card flipped over by Future Sight does something different. Very roughly, though, playing Future Sight itself is -1 CA, then you gain +1 CA for each card you flip over and use.
It’s hard to visualize, so let’s take something more concrete:
Play: Tim plays Future Sight. The top cards of his library are Underground Sea, then Mox Ruby, then Gorilla Shaman, then Brainstorm, then Tundra, Flooded Strand, and Black Lotus. Ferrett does nothing. WTF?
CA (Tim)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Future Sight leaves Tim’s hand and moves onto the board)
-1 (Rule 3: Future Sight has no further effect not covered by Rule 1)
+1 (Rule 1: Underground Sea may be played as though in Tim’s hand)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Underground Sea leaves Tim’s hand and moves onto the board)
+1 (Rule 1: Mox Ruby may be played as though in Tim’s hand)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Mox Ruby leaves Tim’s hand and moves onto the board)
+1 (Rule 1: Gorilla Shaman may be played as though in Tim’s hand)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Gorilla Shaman leaves Tim’s hand and moves onto the board)
+1 (Rule 1: Brainstorm may be played as though in Tim’s hand)
-1 (Rule 1: Brainstorm may no longer be played as though in Tim’s hand)
+1 (Rule 1: Tundra moves to Tim’s hand due to Brainstorm)
+0 (Rule 1: Black Lotus and Flooded Strand move to Tim’s library)
+1 (Rule 1: Black Lotus may be played as though in Tim’s hand)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Black Lotus leaves Tim’s hand and moves onto the board)
+1 (Rule 1: Flooded Strand may be played as though in Tim’s hand)
-1 (Rule 3: Flooded Strand is dead because it is unplayable)
CA (Ferrett)
-0 (does nothing)
Total CA: CA (Tim) – CA (Ferrett) = 4 – 0 = +4 CA
Here, Tim played five cards, and T.H.E.F.U.C.C. captures the CA nicely. It also captures Future Sight’s nuances such as:
If Tim had a fetchland in play, it would have produced CA by reshuffling away the dead second land.
Mystical Tutor and Vampiric Tutor no longer lose CA with Future Sight in play.
Flipping over a card like Lightning Bolt won’t lose CA, T.H.E.F.U.C.C. treats it like a cycling card. Thus, if you flip over Duress, just use it even if your opponent has no hand.
Barring Fastbond, you can’t do anything with the dead second land, but Rule 3 shows you why it helps to play as few reactive cards as possible with Future Sight.
Bring it on!
Ultra-Violence, Level 3: Jesse Desmond on Armageddon
Play: In a Type II game, Jesse has a Trained Armodon enchanted with One with Nature. At the end of Knut’s turn, he casts Natural Affinity and Starstorm for 2. Jesse loses five Mountains and four Forests. Knut loses six Swamps. Both are at 14 life. Jesse has no cards in hand; Knut has five. WTF?
CA (Jesse)
-1 (Rule 1: Natural Affinity leaves Jesse’s hand)
-1 (Rule 1: Starstorm leaves Jesse’s hand)
-9 (Rule 2: Five Mountains and four Forests leave Jesse’s side of the board)
CA (Knut)
-6 (Rule 2: Six Swamps leave Knut’s side of the board)
Total CA: CA (Jesse) – CA (Knut) = -11 – -6 = -5 CA
Jesse is 19 and an English major from Boston, Massachusetts (damn, that word again). He plays Type II and Extended. He described the play,”You will be able to ride the Armodon to victory by decimating your opponent from developing any further.”
T.H.E.F.U.C.C. returns -5 CA, but we all know this is a good play – more so if it were Mythic Proportions there. Jesse tried to explain (last December 28):”However you could also say that the five cards the opponent has in hand become dead cards thus giving you +5 since you take away his resources, and with the unblocked Armodon attacking next turn, the One With Nature gives an extra +1 so you end up with a net of +1…”
Okay, I have a lawyer from London and an English major from Boston thinking about Rule 3 this way.
Question: What if your opponent had no hand?
Answer: We’d be back to -5 CA, yet the play is still great.
Question: What if your opponent had seven cards in hand?
Answer: Doesn’t really matter.
Question: What is the Matrix?
Jesse got it right the first time. Here, you’re not aiming for CA, but killing your opponent’s tempo (see”Counting Tempo, Part I“).
You’re not”decimating his development,” you’re Starstorming him back into the Stone Age while you have a tank ready to run over his feeble resistance.
You’re practically resetting the game back to Turn 1, except you already have that Armodon on the board. The thing you’re worried about at this point isn’t the CA, but Knut getting mana and a cheap removal spell. If he can kill the Armodon immediately, he kills what’s left of your tempo, and now the CA loss comes back to bite you.
Otherwise, even if he kills Armodon, it should have rebuilt your mana base to the point that you can finish the job, as Knut struggles to move back to turn 2, then turn 3, and so on.
Rule 3 on Knut’s hand muddles the count here. It also makes the result fluctuate, when it shouldn’t. (What you can do is temper T.H.E.F.U.C.C.’s result if you consider some of the land unnecessary already, though you should have kept these in hand if you were planning this ‘Geddon.)
This problem explains the timing of Armageddon, Balance / Zuran Orb, and other plays like the Omelet combo (Jokulhaups / Rukh Egg).
Ultra-Violence, Level 4: Todd Davis a.k.a. Tristal on Humility
Play: Todd has three Savannah Lions and Humility in hand. Ferrett has a Goblin Welder with summoning sickness, a Myr Mindservant, and a Solemn Simulacrum in his graveyard. Both are at 20 life. WTF?
Decision: Should Todd cast Humility? WTF?
Option 1: Todd casts Humility. WTF?
CA (Todd)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Humility leaves Todd’s hand and moves to the board)
-0 (Rule 4: Three Savannah Lions become vanilla 1/1s)
CA (Ferrett)
-0 (Rule 4: Goblin Welder and Myr Mindservant become vanilla 1/1s)
Total CA (Option 1): CA (Todd) – CA (Ferrett) = 0 – 0 = +0 CA
———————————————————————————–
Option 2: Todd doesn’t cast Humility. WTF?
CA (Todd)
-0 (Humility stays in Todd’s hand)
-3 (Rule 3: After this turn, the Lions can no longer attack into the Welder trick)
CA (Ferrett)
-1 (Rule 2: Myr Mindservant leaves the board on Todd’s next turn)
+1 (Rule 2: Solemn Simulacrum moves to the board on Todd’s next turn)
+1 (Rule 2: A basic land moves to the board on Todd’s next turn)
Total CA (Option 2): CA (Todd) – CA (Ferrett) = -3 – 1 = -4 CA
Total CA: CA (Option 2) – CA (Option 1) = 0 – -4 = +4 CA
The problem: After this turn, Ferrett can block a Lion with his Mindervant, then Weld it into Simulacrum after assigning damage. He gets a free land out of the play, then a free card the next time, and so on.
If you don’t attack, your creatures twiddle their thumbs while that +4 CA grows each turn. If you do, the same thing happens, except you lose your creatures.
T.H.E.F.U.C.C. tells you to bite the bullet and choose the lesser of two evils, unless you can race the Welder trick.
Ultra-Violence, Level 5: Richard Melvin a.k.a. soru on Elephant Guide
Play: Richard plays Elephant Guide on his Grizzly Bears. Knut does nothing. WTF?
CA (Richard)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Elephant Guide leaves Richard’s hand to his side of the board)
-0 (Rule 4: Grizzly Bears becomes a 5/5)
-1 (Rule 3: Elephant Guide has no additional effect)
CA (Knut)
-0 (does nothing)
Total CA: CA (Richard) – CA (Knut) = -1 – 0 = -1 CA
Enchant Creature cards were one of the toughest to mathematically model in”Revisiting Card Advantage,” and this is the solution from that article. Read the commentary from there.
First, you get -1 CA, which implies you shouldn’t even play Elephant Guide. However, you can explain this. You didn’t get a new permanent, you enhanced an existing one, which has benefits beyond the declared scope of CA theory.
This isn’t so bad.
Second, when your opponent kills Bears, both of you get -1 CA (excluding the Elephant token first). This works, since otherwise, you’d conclude it’s better to kill a 5/5 Bears than an identical 5/5 One Dozen Eyes token. Worse, you’d conclude it’s better to use Persuasion on the 5/5 Bears. You’d also have to count Battlegrowth under Rule 2, which would lead to counting Elven Rite, Unspeakable Symbol, and Spike Colony as card advantage engines.
Third, if Knut Naturalizes Elephant Guide, he loses a card while you essentially lose just part of your Bears, and we still count the 2/2 that’s left as a card in our simplified theory. You’ll see, anyway, that you’re both down two cards whether he kills the Bears and then the token, or kills Elephant Guide and then the Bears.
What we end up doing, in a sense, is taking Additional Rule 4 over Rule 2. This is inherent in our definition of CA, though, otherwise we’d have to integrate power/toughness into the count.
So far, this solution is the simplest, most logical and most mathematically neat application I can think of, and I think it’s satisfactory, given T.H.E.F.U.C.C. is only three phrases long.
Indeed, generally, another creature is better than an enhancing enchantment. Otherwise, you lose two cards to a removal spell when you add it up.
Interlude
You, dear readers, have thrown twenty problems at T.H.E.F.U.C.C., with increasing intensity. It can feel the heat and the pressure, but so far, it’s still standing firm.
Now, we’re left with the very toughest of the problems I’ve saved for last.
These might take more than ten seconds each, but if they’re the only ones, the formula is still in very good shape.
(If you want a cheesecake link now, go use Google like everyone else.)
Nightmare, Level 1: Zvi Mowshowitz on Decree of Justice
Play: Oscar cycled Decree of Justice for a million Soldiers on his turn. Zvi is holding Wrath of God. WTF?
CA (Zvi)
-1 (Rule 1: Wrath of God leaves Zvi’s hand)
CA (Oscar)
-1,000,000 (Rule 2: One million 1/1 Soldiers leave the board)
Total CA: CA (Zvi) – CA (Oscar) = -1 – -1,000,000 = +999,999 CA
Zvi said I, not he, should cast Decree of Justice because he’d never cast it on his turn and let me Wrath (so maybe I Mana Drained his Fireball for a million).
However, he proposed that while this play is definitely not -1 CA – if it were, he said, then CA would be a worthless concept – it’s not +999,999 CA either. Rather, the value of”ton o’ 1/1s” depends on the circumstances. In a sense, Rule 3 makes the bulk of the army dead, meaning the actual number you make with an infinite mana combo stops being important past a certain point.
In the end, we agreed the play is +X, with X well over -1, with an upper bound of 999,999.
I included this debate over the value of 1,000,000 1/1s to tickle your curiosity, especially who’d like to do house rules for Rule 4 and, say, count a 1/1 as just half a card.
Of course, there’s little practical value in determining which fraction of a million X really is. Again, you need a theory’s explanation least when you’re a second away from winning. It’s unlikely someone will kill 500,000 of the 1/1s and lose to the other 500,000.
For our purposes, the simple, three-phrase theory does a lot already.
Nightmare, Level 2: Stephen Menendian on Yawgmoth’s Will
Play: Ferrett does nothing as Steve plays out this opening hand: Mind’s Desire, Burning Wish, Brainstorm, Dark Ritual, Lotus Petal, City of Brass, Sol Ring.
1) Play City of Brass.
2) Play Brainstorm. Lion’s Eye Diamond, Tinker, and Chromatic Sphere move to his hand. Mind’s Desire and Tinker move back to the top of his library.
3) Play Lotus Petal.
4) Play Dark Ritual using Lotus Petal.
5) Play Lion’s Eye Diamond.
6) Play Sol Ring.
7) Play Chromatic Sphere.
8) Sacrifice Chromatic Sphere for one red mana, drawing Mind’s Desire.
9) Play Burning Wish, sacrificing Lion’s Eye Diamond for black mana
10) Fetch Yawgmoth’s Will from the sideboard.
11) With four black mana floating, play Petal, Lion’s Eye, and Dark Ritual.
12) Play Mind’s Desire, with twelve Storms.
WTF?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
CA (Steve)
-0 (Rule 1/2: City of Brass leaves Steve’s hand and moves to the board)
-0 (Rule 1: Brainstorm and two cards leave Steve’s hand, three move there)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Lotus Petal leaves Steve’s hand and moves to the board)
-1 (Rule 2: Lotus Petal leaves the board)
-1 (Rule 1: Dark Ritual leaves Steve’s hand)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Lion’s Eye Diamond leaves Steve’s hand and moves to the board)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Sol Ring leaves Steve’s hand and moves to the board)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Chromatic Sphere leaves Steve’s hand and moves to the board)
-1 (Rule 2: Chromatic Sphere leaves the board)
+1 (Rule 1: Mind’s Desire moves to Steve’s hand)
-1 (Rule 2: Lion’s Eye Diamond leaves the board)
-0 (Rule 1: Burning Wish leaves Steve’s hand, Yawgmoth’s Will moves there)
-1 (Rule 1: Yawgmoth’s Will leaves Steve’s hand)
+5 (Rule 1: Steve may play six cards as though in his hand)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Lotus Petal leaves Steve’s hand and moves to the board)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Lion’s Eye Diamond leaves Steve’s hand and moves to the board)
-1 (Rule 1: Dark Ritual leaves Steve’s hand)
-1 (Rule 2: Lion’s Eye Diamond leaves the board)
-1 (Rule 1: Mind’s Desire leaves Steve’s hand)
+13 (Rule 1: Steve plays thirteen cards as though in his hand due to Mind’s Desire)
CA (Goldfish)
-0 (fell asleep)
Total CA: CA (Steve) – CA (Goldfish) = +11 – 0 = +11 CA
Steve is a fellow Paragon, fellow Featured Writer, fellow law student, and the man who mised a 22-man tourney in Columbus, Ohio last December 28 in Burning Desire’s last run.
T.H.E.F.U.C.C. models a crazy combo perfectly. The slightly confusing part is Yawgmoth’s Will, but it adds up and is very similar to Future Sight’s computation. You just have to remember to”discard” all the cards you didn’t cast at the end of the turn. (This stops you from concluding that tapping out to cast Will gains CA.)
Some people opine that CA is irrelevant to combo decks, but you can see firsthand this isn’t true. T.H.E.F.U.C.C.’s table, in fact, tracks the CA and tells you where you can strike.
Here, Force of Will on Burning Wish stops him dead, and lets the -5 CA catch up with him. (He still has City of Brass and Sol Ring which let him topdeck, though.) Otherwise, he fetches Yawgmoth’s Will which creates an unholy mana boost, by which time it’s too late to stop the next play.
See the pattern? Tempo boost into an unholy tempo boost into an unholy card advantage boost?
That’s the way it’s worked since Prosbloom (Squandered Resources / Cadaverous Bloom / Prosperity), and Squandered Resources was the real key to that 1997 combo.
Consider that Chalice of the Void and, to a lesser extent, Null Rod, are stronger against Burning Desire than Duress and Force of Will. Also consider that Lion’s Eye Diamond and Burning Wish (for Yawgmoth’s Will for Dark Ritual and Lion’s Eye) were the cards restricted.
If you can arrest the early tempo, you can kill the combo deck with card advantage. Against the predecessor Neo-Academy (see”Deconstructing [author name="Mark Rosewater"]Mark Rosewater[/author]“), for example, Library of Alexandria was quite strong because it deterred the combo from faking out counters and slipping a bomb in. Then, Gorilla Shaman could clean up. (Of course, this was a big if with Burning Desire’s insane and now fortunately illegal mana engine.)
Incidentally, I’d like to credit John Mathias from the Wizards.com forums for submitting a similar problem. It’s just that I decided to use Steve’s at the last minute. John put up a Goblin Charbelcher combo on those forums, something moving towards a Paragon one-land version without his knowing it.
Nightmare, Level 3: Christian Flaaten a.k.a. CF on Saproling Burst
Play: Chris plays Replenish with four Saproling Bursts in his graveyard. Knut pats his two Seals of Cleansing. WTF?
CA (Chris)
-1 (Rule 1: Replenish leaves Chris’s hand)
+4 (Rule 2: Four Saproling Bursts move to Chris’s side of the board)
+8 (Rule 2: Four 5/5 tokens move to Chris’s side of the board)
-4 (Rule 3: Four Saproling Bursts have no further effect)
-0 (Rule 3: Two already dead Saproling Bursts leave the board)
-4 (Rule 2: Four 5/5 tokens leave with the two Saproling Burst)
CA (Knut)
-2 (Rule 2: Two Seals of Cleansing leave the board)
Total CA: CA (Chris) – CA (Knut) = +3 – -2 = +5 CA
Chris is 25, an economist from Oslo, Norway, and one hell of a Paint Shop artist in his spare time. He popularized Tainted Mask and”The Deck” with Oath of Druids, but loved Pande-Burst years back.
Chris is down a card and up four creatures, and Knut is down two Seals. The table is straightforward. Putting in the numbers, though, isn’t as easy because of Rule 3.
Fading requires a Rule 3 judgment call. When you kill Skyshroud Ridgeback or Cloudskate, for example, you’re probably wasting your resources killing a dead card. You can just write off the damage taken from these either, then award yourself +1 CA. Blastoderm is tougher to Rule 3 away, though. More so Saproling Burst.
Saproling Burst is also a slight headache because of its variable nature, though making two tokens offers the highest damage potential. Common sense tells you not to make six tokens just so you can jack up the CA count. Tetravus and Pentavus require similar common sense.
Nightmare, Level 4: Brian Epstein on Spontaneous Generation
Play: Dan Clegg is playing”Saproling Burt” from the 2001 US Nationals. On his fourth turn, with three Islands and a Forest out, he plays Spontaneous Generation. Lawrence Creech, with a blue/black control deck, plays Counterspell. Clegg has six cards in hand, one of them Thwart. WTF?
Decision: Should Dan Clegg cast Thwart? WTF?
Option 1: Clegg doesn’t cast Thwart. WTF?
CA (Clegg)
-0 (Spontaenous Generation is already on the stack)
-0 (Thwart stays in Clegg’s hand)
CA (Creech)
-0 (Counterspell is already on the stack)
Total CA (Option 1): CA (Clegg) – CA (Creech) = 0 – 0 = +0 CA
———————————————————————————
Option 2: Clegg casts Thwart. WTF?
CA (Clegg)
-0 (Spontaenous Generation is already on the stack.)
-1 (Rule 1: Thwart leaves Clegg’s hand)
-0 (Rule 2/1: Three Islands move from the board to Clegg’s hand)
+8 (Rule 2: Eight 1/1 Saprolings move to the board when Generation resolves)
-1 (Rule 1: Clegg has to discard a card at the end of his turn)
CA (Creech)
-0 (Counterspell is already on the stack)
Total CA (Option 2): CA (Clegg) – CA (Creech) = 6 – 0 = +6 CA
Total CA: CA (Option 2) – CA (Option 1) = 6 – 0 = +6 CA
Brian is also 25 and an alumnus of the University of Florida. He’s also applying for law school, which shows since he’s the only one who sent in links to decklists instead of a real problem! I took the problem, in Brian’s name, off the 2001 US Nationals coverage.
Saproling Burt, Dan Clegg, 47th Place, 2001 US Nationals (Type II)
4 Counterspell
3 Foil
3 Thwart
4 Accumulated Knowledge
3 Fact or Fiction
3 Gush
4 Opt
4 Spontaneous Generation
3 Saproling Cluster
4 Opposition
3 Static Orb
15 Island
7 Forest
Sideboard (15)
3 Prodigal Sorcerer
3 Mana Maze
3 Coat of Arms
3 Gainsay
1 Teferi’s Response
2 Rushing River
In the real game, Clegg cast Thwart and Creech conceded. Whoa! Whoever said tokens aren’t part of CA?
Brian asks how T.H.E.F.U.C.C. can help analyze this deck. Well, I’m not very familiar with it, but you can pick out all the CA. The structure reminds you of a lot of control decks, and the draw cards are there up to Fact or Fiction. Spontaneous Generation is as much card advantage as Decree of Justice is today, and the Cluster backup can convert excess land into more Saprolings. The cards generated fuel the Opposition lock.
Foil, Thwart, and Gush are perhaps the curious cards here. Normally, you don’t see them in control decks. Foil trades three cards for one of the opponent’s, and Thwart and Gush kill tempo (see”Counting Tempo, Part I“). Here, though, the tempo tradeoff becomes more interesting with Spontaneous Generation and Saproling Cluster.
The table sums up the result.
Thus, don’t get fixated on the lock or the curious counter base.
Nightmare, Level 5: Nick Lynn on Wheel of Fortune
Play: Nick has Black Lotus, Gemstone Mine with one counter, tapped Volcanic Island, and tapped Tropical Island in play. He has Guerilla Tactics, two Arrogant Wurms, Mana Drain, and Death Spark in hand.
Ferrett has, all tapped, two Jackal Pups, a Slith Firewalker with two counters, two Mountains, and Rishadan Port. He has no hand and Wheel of Fortune on the stack.
Nick is at 5 life, Ferrett is at 20. WTF?
Decision: Should Nick sacrifice Black Lotus to cast Mana Drain? WTF?
Option 1: Nick casts Mana Drain and burns for one. On his turn, he casts Death Spark on a Pup and an Arrogant Wurm. He loses Gemstone Mine. WTF?
CA (Nick)
-1 (Rule 2: Black Lotus leaves the board)
-1 (Rule 1: Mana Drain leaves Nick’s hand)
-1 (Rule 1: Death Spark leaves Nick’s hand)
-1 (Rule 2: Gemstone Mine leaves the board)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Arrogant Wurm moves from Nick’s hand to the board)
CA (Ferrett)
-0 (Wheel of Fortune is already on the stack)
-1 (Rule 2: Jackal Pup leaves the board)
Total CA (Option 1): CA (Nick) – CA (Ferrett) = -4 – -1 = -3 CA
———————————————————————————
Option 2: Nick doesn’t cast Mana Drain, loses Gemstone Mine to cast Death Spark on a Jackal Pup, and discards his hand. He sacs Black Lotus and plays Arrogant Wurm with Madness. He kills Slith Firewalker with Guerilla Tactics. WTF?
CA (Nick)
-1 (Rule 1: Death Spark leaves Nick’s hand)
-1 (Rule 2: Gemstone Mine leaves the board)
-1 (Rule 1: Guerilla Tactics leaves Nick’s hand)
-1 (Rule 2: Black Lotus leaves the board)
-0 (Rule 1/2: Arrogant Wurm moves from Nick’s hand to the board)
-1 (Rule 1: Mana Drain leaves Nick’s hand)
-1 (Rule 1: Arrogant Wurm leaves Nick’s hand)
+1 (Rule 1: He’ll get Death Spark back later)
+7 (Rule 1: Draw seven cards due to Wheel of Fortune)
CA (Ferrett)
-0 (Wheel of Fortune is already on the stack)
-1 (Rule 2: Jackal Pup leaves the board)
-1 (Rule 2: Slith Firewalker leaves the board)
+7 (Rule 1: Draw seven cards due to Wheel of Fortune)
Total CA (Option 2): CA (Nick) – CA (Ferrett) = 2 – 5 = -3 CA
Total CA: CA (Option 2) – CA (Option 1) = -3 – -3 = +0 CA
Nick is 19 and a member of Team CMU.
T.H.E.F.U.C.C. says both options have even CA. Again, check the tempo.
In Option 1, your mana is devastated, and his Port exacerbates this. You have a Wurm on the board, but he can attack and trade Slith Firewalker for it, while the second Pup brings you down to two. Then, you’ll be forced to Tactics the second Pup, and all he has to do is topdeck another burn spell or creature while you’re tapped out, staring at an Arrogant Wurm without a Madness enabler.
This is hardly enviable.
In Option 2, your mana is also devastated, but the fresh hand should bring you at least a couple more land. The tempo gain off Ferrett’s Wheel makes a big difference, though: You play Tactics for free and Wurm at half price, via Madness. In the same free stroke, you kill the 4/4 Firewalker and force Ferrett to rebuild his attack phase.
Thus, where you’re scrambling to play out your hand in Option 1, you sweep his board in Option 2, untap and get first crack at the fresh hand, and have a 4/4 Wurm ready. You can also get Death Spark back.
Option 2 isn’t a very good position, either, since a couple of burn spells can finish you and he has a fresh hand, too. However, you caught up with him, and have the time to maneuver with your new hand.
If you want, you can also write off the Arrogant Wurm from Option 1, since you can see your own hand and know it isn’t going to be useful before you kick the bucket. However, arresting Ferrett’s tempo given his full board is the key to this decision (see”Counting Tempo, Part III“), and I left the CA equal to emphasize this point.
(Rule 3’ing the Wurm alone, though, can’t explain the entire tempo aspect.)
Conclusion
So, after twenty-five select conundrums, T.H.E.F.U.C.C. is still upright.
The parts that appear debatable all relate to Rule 3, which is admitted since it needs player judgment to work. Flashback is handled excellently by the errata after the mistake was detected and Fading is handled by applying Rule 3 to the context.
Curiously, the weakest area appears to be local enchantments. However, T.H.E.F.U.C.C. still handles them, and there really is a clash with Rule 4 and the defined scope of CA theory.
For a three-phrase theory, I guess T.H.E.F.U.C.C. does pretty well.
Again:
Tan’s Highly Educational Formula for Uber-Card Counting (abridged)
Rule 1: Card in hand or as though in hand (like Flashback) = +1 CA
Rule 2: Permanent in play or as though in play (like Incarnations) = +1 CA
Rule 3:”Dead” card = -1 CA
Additional Rule 4: All cards in hand and permanents in play are each equally worth 1 CA, regardless of characteristics
Additional Rule 5: Cards in the library, graveyard and removed from game zone are each worth 0 CA
Guaranteed: Faster results than a Chasey Lain video, or your money back (mail me the video first so I can check what’s wrong with it).
I hope you had a lot of fun with this exercise, I know I did. (And apologies to those whose problems I was unable to use. This is long enough as is.)
Anyway, I’m the one ready to drop. Happy New Year!
Oscar Tan (e-mail: Rakso at StarCityGames.com)
rakso on #BDChat on EFNet
Paragon of Vintage
University of the Philippines, College of Law
Forum Administrator, Star City Games
Featured Writer, Star City Games
Author of the Control Player’s Bible
Maintainer, Beyond Dominia (R.I.P.)
Proud member of the Casual Player’s Alliance