One day back in July of 2004, Mike Turian was handing me my ass in a Draft at Pro Tour: Seattle via the monster combo of Panoptic Mirror and Beacon of Tomorrows, when the topic of Nate Heiss Limited skills came up. Mike said that Nate was a good player, but he’d be a lot better if he’d just stop playing the wrong three-drop on turn 3. Those few sentences spawned the idea for this series of articles that, if executed correctly, should let you pick the brains of Limited masterminds like few Magic articles ever published before.
In one of the few ways that Mark Rosewater and myself are actually alike, I have an endless supply of ideas and stories that would make good articles, and I’ve only been doing this about a quarter of the time. For instance, I’m certain that I will eventually relay the story of how Paul Rietzl once stole Mark Herberholz pants, leaving him broke and stranded in Mexico for an indeterminate amount of time, but that day is not today. Nope, today’s story is merely to explain where a good idea came from and nothing more.
When I heard Mike’s words, I imagine I nodded sagely and went back to getting my teeth kicked in by the "fun" draft deck (I was even worse at Limited then than I am now, but even I had to laugh at getting locked out of a draft game via perpetual Time Walk…), but it set me to wondering. How do you know which three-drop to play on turn 3, or for that matter, anything on turn whatever? I suppose one way to learn is to play a thousand drafts on Magic Online and figure out the right play via brute force, eventually settling on the choice that lets you win more often. Most of us don’t have that kind of time or money. I soon found myself looking for a way to short-circuit the process, and came upon the following idea:
1) Take an in-game scenario in a particular format.
2) Give a couple of really good Limited players the information they need to figure out what their plays would be.
3) Then ask them to walk you through why they would make those plays.
Seems simple, right? It’s not. I tried to get self-starters Anton Jonsson and Tim Aten to kick this off back in CCB Limited, but the fruit rotted on the vine well before it was ripe, so I set it aside. Now that I have switched away from editing Star City and have (fractionally) more time to write, I figure it was also time to return to this concept, except this time I’d kick it off by thinking up a scenario or two and then pester people to answer my e-mail. I eventually roped the original protagonist for this endeavor plus Rich Hoaen and Anton Jonsson into answering, and suddenly my baby had taken its first wobbly steps. Enough with the preamble, on with the show!
Scenario 1
You are playing a Boros deck and your opponent is playing some form of Dimir. You are on the play and cast a Caregiver on turn 1, followed by Skyknight Legionnaire on turn 3, dropping your opponent to 16 before they cast Drift of Phantasms off of a Dimir Aqueduct and a Swamp (discarding an Island) and you know they also have an Island in hand.
It is now your turn 4 and your opponent is tapped out with only the Drift in play. You still have a Caregiver in play as well as the Legionnaire, two Mountains, and a Plains. Your deck contains slightly more Plains than Mountains.
Your hand contains: Lightning Helix, Galvanic Arc, Flame-Kin Zealot, Legionnaire #2, and a freshly drawn Thundersong Trumpeter.
Question 1: What else do you need to know in order to figure out the right play here?
Question 2: What else would you like to know?
Question 3: What is the right play?
Question 4: Why is this the right play?
Question 5: How would knowing that your opponent had a Last Gasp in hand change your play?
Now instead of breaking these up, I’m going to let each guy answer in their own way, so as not to break up the flow and the logic. I’ll also note that the two scenarios presented are relatively easy. This is intentional. I wanted to start things off simple and then hopefully escalate the difficulty level in future installments.
Mike Turian Answer for S1:
My fault! Haha.
Just for the record, it isn’t just three-drops – it happens every turn of the game. Essentially, mana forces a decision, a decision that can easily be screwed up without realizing it. The best games of Magic are the ones where you spend all of your mana every single turn until you win the game. Even though I don’t believe in the perfect game, I think that is about as close as you can be to perfection.
Question 1: What else do you need to know in order to figure out the right play here?
I’d like to know what else is in my deck. Beyond that, it doesn’t really matter. When I am playing a game of Magic, I don’t get to know anything else about the game. Sometimes I will know if they have a bomb in their deck, or the particular person’s play style, but I certainly don’t need to know.
Question 2: What else would you like to know?
Like I said bombs are the important part of the story here. Permission and kill would be nice to know about as well. I have good removal in my hand, so I’m not particularly afraid of any creatures they could play at this level. I’ll get back to this question.
Question 3: What is the right play?
Let’s start by ruling out options.
Option 1: Play the Flame-Kin Zealot. Well, this is cheating. Out!
Option 2: Attack with everything. Cast the Lightning Helix on the Drift. It makes no sense to cast the cheaper removal spell, when drawing the right land will allow me to play both the Helix and Trumpeter on the following turn. Out!
Option 3: Attack with everything. Cast the Trumpeter. Once again wasting mana is a bad thing. The Trumpeter could be thought of as equivalent as playing the second Legionnaire. (Deal one this turn followed by five on the next versus deal three then three), but it wastes mana. Also, the damage isn’t guaranteed, which is another thing that leads me away from this option. Out!
Option 4: Cast the second Legionnaire. Attack with everything.
Option 5: Attack with the two creatures I have out. Cast Galvanic Arc on my Legionnaire, killing the Drift.
Both 4 and 5 are reasonable options and are, in fact, quite close. They are so close that there isn’t a strictly better answer, so let’s look at these two more in depth.
The big thing that makes one card the play over the other is what happens on subsequent turns. An interesting thing that I won’t talk about in this write-up is what happens if your opponent decides to block the Caregiver or to not block. I don’t think that either of these scenarios is a reasonable outcome. If you opponent is too big of a chicken to block with his 0/5, you will clearly beat him no matter what you do. Defenders are made for blocking.
SubScenario 1A: You don’t draw a land on your next turn. (17 cards out of 30 remaining, 57%)
In this scenario, you will most likely play either the Legionnaire or the Arc, depending on which you played on turn 3.
1A.1. – They are untapped. In this case, casting the Arc earlier would be better than playing it later. If they are untapped, you will have to give up the potential to play the Arc on your own man because you will need to respect removal. Them having permission doesn’t change the scenario much. In that case, it would probably would have been better for the wall to be dead considering it negates one of your creatures all of the time.
1A.2 – They are tapped out. Both scenarios are the same. You deal one damage then five or three and then three. Potentially having the Arc back will be better since you can point it at a new target, but then again the Drift is a reasonable target to begin with.
1A.1 and 1A.2 show that these plays are fairly washes. 1A.1 has option 5 clearly benefiting (end up with a first striker) while 1A.2 has option 4 making small gains.
SubScenario 1B: You draw a Mountain on your next turn. (5 cards out of 30 remaining, 17%)
1B – You can still play either the Arc or Legionnaire. If you do that, it is the same as scenario 1A.1. Casting the Zealot (regardless of what they did) is always equal. One way I have hit them for one, then either. The other way I hit for three, then eight, but on the following turn I still haven’t dealt with the wall so I hit for two less. If I hit for 11 total and still have the Arc and the Helix, I have effectively won the game (they would be at five.) Of course, this is assuming that they didn’t do anything on their turn.
Say they cast a reasonable blocker or have a reasonable removal spell. Now I hit for three then five (trading off probably a Legionnaire) or one then five. One way they would be at eight with me only needing to deal two more damage to burn them out. The other way they are at ten with me needing to deal seven more damage to burn them out.
Leaving them in a scenario where they need to take two more damage before they die is a powerful position. Making it even more powerful is the fact that they don’t know how much in danger they actually are. Of course, counterbalancing this is the fact that the Arc isn’t guaranteed damage.
Scenario 1C: You draw a Plains on your next turn. (8 cards out of 30 remaining, 27%)
All of the options from 1A and 1B are still available in this scenario. Drawing a Plains allows for the play of Thundersong Trumpeter and Lightning Helix. This scenario doesn’t add much to our evaluation. It is a lot of goodness to be sure, but if you draw a Plains the game is practically won. The ability to choose between all of your spells is so powerful that you should win regardless of what your opponent does.
So there we have it. On balance, I find that scenario 1B and 1C are superior enough to 1A, which makes playing the Skyknight Legionnaire the correct play. Even though scenario 1A is more common (57% to 43%) than the others, the advantages gained by drawing a land are worth the sacrifice of percentage points. In essence, having extra removal (for both creatures and players) in hand is worth the chance that the Galvanic Arc will fail on occasion. Your opponent should be on their back foot enough that the Arc should resolve a majority of the time.
Anton Jonsson Answer for S1:
This scenario is easy. With a few updates I’m sure even the AI on Shandalar would get this one right.
Question 1: What else do you need to know in order to figure out the right play here?
Nothing.
Question 2: What else would you like to know?
There is a lot of stuff I would like to know, but they have nothing to do with this scenario.
Question 3: What is the right play?
Play the second Legionnaire, and attack with everything.
Question 4: Why is this the right play?
You make this play because…
a) … it lets you maximize the amount of damage you deal this turn (and future turns).
b) … it maximizes the amount of mana you use.
c) … it lets you play both Trumpeter and Helix next turn, if you draw a Plains.
There is actually no downside to this play, since there isn’t anything your opponent could play next turn that would make you play this differently. Now, if the format had Hideous Laughter (or similar), then you could make a case for just attacking and finishing off the Drift with your Arc. The only conceivable advantage is that he could play a turn 4 Strands of Undeath on his own creature instead of yours, but it is hard for me to see how this would matter.
Question 5: How would knowing that your opponent had a Last Gasp in hand change your play?
It wouldn’t change my play on turn 3 at all. On later turns I would make sure to stop him countering my Arc. This is usually something that isn’t hard to do, especially when your start is as good as this one, since your opponent will most likely have to tap out a lot in the coming turns.
Rich Hoaen Answer to S1:
Question 1: What else do you need to know in order to figure out the right play here?
Just the board and my hand is sufficient.
Question 2: What else would you like to know?
It would be nice to know the contents of both of our decks, but for this we can assume it’s game one, and I know the contents of my own deck.
Question 3: What is the right play?
I would play the second Skyknight Legionnaire.
Question 4: Why is this the right play?
I believe this is the right play because any play we make would be trying to remove the wall from the equation, and the Skyknight does that the fastest. It also leaves Trumpeter, and Lightning Helix in our hand, which amounts to a great turn if we can find a Plains on time.
Question 5: How would knowing that your opponent had a Last Gasp in hand change your play?
My play would remain the same, since it still optimizes mana usage and gets the most damage through. Last Gasp would be used on a Skyknight or Trumpeter anyway, and it can’t really be played around at this point.
My comments:
I’m float around 1840 in Limited on Magic Online, and I’ve consistently been screwing this scenario up by playing the Arc after combat to kill the Drift. I’m not a bad player, but I could certainly be better; talking over certain plays with folks much better than you (all three of these guys are absolute masters) is one of the best ways you can improve. In fact, at a certain point it might be the only way you get better, because you build habits that need to be checked and fixed. Reviewing your own play in this way is about the only time that can happen.
Scenario 2
It is turn 3.
Your opponent, who was on the play, controls: Thundersong Trumpeter (untapped), Skyknight Legionnaire (tapped), 2 Mountains and a Plains (all tapped).
You control: a Lurking Informant, an Island and a Swamp.
Your Hand Contains: Dimir Aqueduct, Swamp, Compulsive Research, Last Gasp, Drift of Phantasms, Snapping Drake, Vedalken Entrancer.
Question 1: What else do you need to know in order to figure out the right play here?
Question 2: What else would you like to know?
Question 3: What is the right play?
Question 4: Why is this the right play?
Question 4a: What is your likely play next turn?
Question 5: How would knowing that your opponent had a Lightning Helix in hand change your play?
Rich Hoaen Answer to S2:
Question 1: What else do you need to know in order to figure out the right play here?
It would be nice to know if I had more removal in my deck, so that I can use the Last Gasp now, and not have to worry too much about future threats (Viashino Fangtail, etc.)
Question 3: What is the right play?
Last Gasp the Legionnaire and play Dimir Aqueduct.
Question 4: Why is this the right play?
This play fits with both of our goals. We are able to use all of our mana, and play the Aqueduct, so we don’t have to worry about that later. We take no damage next turn, and deal with the Skyknight Legionnaire, which was eventually going to trade with a card anyway.
Question 4a: What is your likely play next turn?
Next turn, your most likely play is Vedalken Entrancer.
Question 5: How would knowing that your opponent had a Lightning Helix in hand change your play?
This wouldn’t have changed anything.
Anton Jonsson Answer to S2:
This one is a bit trickier. Arguments could be made for two different ways to play this one, although I am certain that with most decks one play is superior.
Question 1: What else do you need to know in order to figure out the right play here?
To make a "correct" decision here, I would ideally need to know our complete decklist. Is that Last Gasp our only removal? Do we have countermagic?
Question 2: What else would you like to know?
Knowing the contents of our opponent’s deck would, of course, help. What creatures might we want to save that Last Gasp for?
Question 3: What is the right play?
In my mind, the correct play (with the information we have) is to play Last Gasp on the Legionnaire, play Dimir Aqueduct (returning a Swamp), and then pass the turn.
Question 4: Why is this the right play?
The key factor in my decision is the strength of the hand. This hand is very powerful, with access to a bunch of good spells and even Compulsive Research to replenish my cards. Whenever I find myself in a situation where I have this much power at my disposal, I try to figure out how to not lose. The opposite would be true if my hand was bad, or if I found myself in a situation where winning seemed unlikely. Then I would be thinking, "how do I win this game?"
For this scenario, the way I lose is if I get overwhelmed before I can gain control. The biggest chance of that happening is if I stall on mana for a turn. Playing the Gasp and the Aqueduct removes this possibility, and also has the added bonus of minimizing the damage I take. The one disadvantage is (of course) if my opponent plays a creature later that I end up losing to, one that would be perfect for my now-spent Last Gasp. There are almost no creatures like that in Red or White, thankfully. Not counting rares (like well-flipped Molten Sentries), the worst case is probably a Viashino Fangtail, and even in that case I would have a lot of time to find an answer.
Question 4a: What is your likely play next turn?
My play next turn would depend on what my opponent does. Assuming he plays a non-flying creature of some sort, and I don’t draw anything of consequence, I would play the Entrancer to further shore up the ground and get the milling started. If he played a flier, I would probably try to trade my Snapping Drake for it (if he lets me). I wouldn’t want to play the Drift or the Compulsive Research, since that means I would be giving up tempo in a match that we probably only can lose if I am too slow. The plan is to wait with these cheaper spells until I can play two of them in the same turn.
Question 5: How would knowing that your opponent had a Lightning Helix in hand change your play?
A Lightning Helix actually makes this option even better. If I had played the Drift instead, I would give my opponent the option of trading his Helix for it. Playing the Gasp means that his only target for Helix is the Informant, and since we are probably playing the Entrancer next turn he might not even get to use it then.
Mike Turian Answer for S2:
My answer to questions 1 and 2 are the same. I wouldn’t be interested in permission, though. Just kill and burn.
Question 3: What is the right play?
This question is very different from the first scenario, and it illustrates a crucial point about Magic. While the first question had only a few turns of forward planning involved (i.e. how much damage can I deal as fast as possible), this question deals with the idea of game plans.
I remember a very good article (maybe from Andy Johnson? Flores?) about how Magic is often about winning game plans. [This one, maybe? – Craig] Much like in life, knowing your goal in a particular game and planning to achieve a win can make the difference. With a Lurking Informant out and Compulsive Research in my hand, I think that I will win the game as long as I keep my life total high. It will allow for me to use my two card advantage outlets to best possible effect.
The other thing to consider is mana development. I want to put the Karoo into play. I don’t have another land in my hand if I play the Swamp this turn, and I wouldn’t mind an extra land to throw to the Compulsive Research in a few turns.
With these two goals in mind (stay alive, develop mana) we get to the interesting part of the decision. We can’t cast the four-mana spells, so they are clearly out. Casting Compulsive Research helps neither our life total nor our mana development. In fact, it actively hurts both of these goals.
Once again we are left with two options: casting Drift of Phantasms or Last Gasp. Both cards adequately protect the life total, but Last Gasp gets the Karoo into play. Being one mana cheaper won’t be relevant for at least two more turns, and if you play the Swamp, then the Karoo will be stuck in your hand or hold your mana development back.
Figuring out which creature to kill is almost a toss up. Killing the Legionnaire will save you damage in the short term, but the Trumpeter could be the bigger problem in the long run. I think in this particular situation, whacking the Legionnaire is best. With a good selection of blockers left in hand, and the ability to control their draw steps with the Informant, it seems like protecting as much up-front damage as possible is best. The Trumpeter will likely just hold back the Drift every turn, and hopefully the extra card draws will find an answer to the Trumpeter in short order.
For this one I have no idea what I would cast next turn. I would wait to see what they did. Also, when would I know they had Last Gasp or Lightning Helix? That seems dumb. I wouldn’t know either of those things.
My Comments:
I actually got this one right, realizing that the Aqueduct and continued mana development is key to finding the right play here.
Now I Need Your Help
I hope you have enjoyed this experiment in both Limited Theory and Practice. Thanks to Mike, Anton, and Rich for making this just as good or better than I expected. Now I need your help.
Coming up with interesting scenarios that are neither too easy nor too hard is extremely tough. Therefore I’d appreciate it if, when you guys run across something particularly intriguing, you send it my way, including all the important details as well (my e-mail is [email protected]). We may not use many of them (I’m hoping to run this column about once every 4-6 weeks), but those that get used will get some sort of kickback from me as a thank you for making the effort.
If things go well and we get a bunch of excellent scenarios, I can even foresee taking one of BDM’s suggestions and turning this into the next iteration of the once-popular Dilemma series.
The Kitchen Sink
Note: The bargain between reader and author still stands. Feel free to comment on the random stuff in my columns, but don’t forget to discuss the other ten pages of actual Magic text while you are at it.
A recurring thought spawned from building more and more Sealed decks: Chengo McFlingers can’t possibly be a real name, can it?
So who wins in a fight, Bill Simmons or Isiah Thomas? This is clearly a chick fight, right? I think Simmons wins if his back holds up, but I foresee a lot of biting and scratching in store if these two ever throw down.
It’s a little early to suggest this, but here goes: Guildpact Sealed may be one of the most skill-testing formats in Magic history, and I am far from the only one thinking this.
The two shows that are blowing my mind lately are Veronica Mars and The Shield. Season one of VM is one of the most well-written twenty-two episode debut seasons I have ever seen in terms of dialogue and plotting (Rome and Deadwood were both twelve episodes, Lost’s dialogue wasn’t as enjoyable, and Buffy didn’t hit its stride until season three or so). If you haven’t gotten on board before now, I highly recommend picking up the season one DVD set and setting aside a weekend strictly to enjoy this show. For you people who really like JW’s work (I am not typing his name again and you can’t make me), J called Veronica Mars his favorite show in an interview last year, and had a cameo in season two. (For you comic book fans you there, JW picks back up writing Astonishing X-Men this month too.)
If you really need extra incentive to watch the show, take a moment to gaze upon the delectable form of Kristin Bell, the 5’1" blonde powerhouse that makes the show go. My taste in women runs toward short, snarky women with great abs, and she definitely fits the bill. Veronica’s relationship with both her dad and her best friend is sprinkled with delightful dialogue bombs sure to make those of you who appreciate such things smile. In short, buy season one, download season two, and then come tell me how much you loved it.
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As for The Shield, it continues to be produce material that puts it in contention as one of the best serieses(es) to ever be seen on television. Somehow, every time you think it can’t get better, the creative team behind the show manages to kick things up another notch. (Maybe they have Emeril working for them – I hear he had a lot of downtime while waiting for his New Orleans properties to dry out.) For example, last year Glenn Close was the precinct captain (she was incredible) and I thought that there was no way they could top that. They proved me wrong by bringing in Forrest Whitaker to play an Internal Affairs detective whose mission in life is to find out just how dirty Vic Mackey and his boys actually are. The acting in this show is so good that some scenes remind me of Pacino and DeNiro on screen at the same time in Heat, a comparison that will make Heat fans scoff but one that will set Shield fans heads bobbing in unison.
It’s apparent that the problem with suggesting music in this column is that if I suggest new stuff, it’s likely to be things you haven’t heard of which will set some people to whining about how obscure my tastes are, while if I suggest more mainstream stuff all the music snobs will take potshots in the forums. I think there’s a middle ground to be found here that says if you like the music, great – you have a new artist to listen to, while if you don’t, feel free to suggest something equally interesting, doing a good deed instead of contributing more negativity to our eternally negative forums. Anyway, here we go again…
Stuff I’ve been listening to lately includes:
The Arctic Monkeys – I Bet That You Look Good On The Dance Floor (Recommended by Craiggers and a spicy meatsaball to boot)
Madonna vs. M.I.A. – UR Hung Up (Another Jeff Holmes special)
Of Montreal – Wraith Pinned to the Mist…
Tegan and Sara – The entire So Jealous Album
I’m a bit late to the party with Tegan and Sara, a pair of Canadian, lesbian identical twins who really hit their stride with their last album. Even Morgan Douglas liked this one, and Morgie (like Mikey) hates everything. Combine T&S with the New Pornographers, Feist, and Broken Social Scene and I’m starting to think Canada’s biggest export is really clever pop.
Random Thought: the problem with enjoying lesbian rock is that you could never hook up with the girls after a live show or anything, so when you find a cute lesbian act/band you really love… you end up heartbroken right from the start.
Speaking of music, Guitar Hero is about as much fun as gaming gets, especially when you get to watch your wife punk out and play "I Wanna Be Sedated" about once a day. If you have the means, I highly recommend checking this out and then getting your friends to do the same.
That’s all for now.
Until next time, Think It Through.
Teddy Card Game
[email protected]