In last week’s article, I talked at length about the method I use for adjusting to metagame shifts, offered a detailed account of how the current Standard metagame has shifted throughout the Amsterdam PTQ season, and suggested the direction I anticipated it going for this past weekend. My prediction was that Titan Ramp decks would be popular, and that playing a Primeval Titan deck would be a passable decision, but that the better decision would be to play something like Blue/White Control with lots of counter-magic, i.e. something that is solid against the field and preys on the expected Titan decks.
At the time of writing, results from this past weekend’s tournaments have not yet fully poured in, but I do have knowledge of the results of four tournaments: Canadian Nationals, Australian Nationals, French Nationals, and the Detroit PTQ that I won. Judging by the results of these tournaments, it looks as though my metagame prediction was pretty accurate, and that those who had the most success this weekend made a similar metagame choice to the one I recommended. First let’s talk about Canadian Nationals.
Canadian Nationals
Jasar Elarar and his Blue/White Control deck defeated Vincent Thibeault’s Titan Ramp deck in the finals.
Creatures (8)
Planeswalkers (6)
Lands (18)
Spells (28)
Of his 75 cards, Elarar played 15 counterspells (3 Essence Scatter, 1 Negate, 4 Mana Leak main and 4 Flashfreeze and 3 Negate in sideboard). That is a lot! I’m not sold on playing Jace Beleren in the deck. It is good in the mirror where you are drawing cards and proactively keeping their Jace, the Mind Sculptor off the board. Against non-mirror opponents, however, it’s often as much a hindrance as it is an advantage, largely by keeping your own Jace, the Mind Sculptor off the table for an extra turn. This is particularly relevant against decks like Mythic Constriction and Naya, where bouncing a Knight of the Reliquary (or worse) is often the play you want to make on turn 4.
Aside from this, I think 3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor and 2 Mind Spring are the correct number of maindeck card draw spells. Elarar opted to cut Mind Spring from the deck entirely, which is perfectly acceptable against some decks, but against something like Jund, Mind Spring is much better than Jace Beleren.
Australian Nationals
In Australia, Adam Witton’s Titan Ramp deck defeated Jeremy Neeman and his Titan Force deck to take the title. The highest place finishing Blue/White Control deck was Alex McCormick’s 5th place finish.
Creatures (7)
Planeswalkers (8)
Lands (17)
Spells (28)
- 5 Plains
- 4 Island
- 2 Condemn
- 2 Oblivion Ring
- 3 Mind Spring
- 2 Negate
- 1 Martial Coup
- 4 Path to Exile
- 2 Day of Judgment
- 3 Everflowing Chalice
Sideboard
Unlike Elarar’s 15, Alex only ran 8 counters (2 Negate main, 4 Flashfreeze and 2 Negate in sideboard). 4 Jace, the Mind Sculptor and 3 Mind Spring definitely feels like too much card drawing. Skimping on counter-magic in order to support more draw power makes the deck more vulnerable to opposing Planeswalkers and other control elements.
Alex did not skimp in the creature removal camp, but creatures on average comprise only about half of an opponent’s board presence. Having the counter in hand and the mana up to stop an Elspeth, Garruk, Gideon, Jace, or Sarkhan is often very important. Oblivion Ring is not a terrible answer, but it almost always involves giving up card advantage since they will get one free activation out of the deal.
French Nationals
In France, Julien Parez and his Blue/White Control deck took down Guillaume Matignon and his Pyromancer’s Ascension deck in the finals. There were also two other Blue/White Control decks in the top 8 (Guillaume Wafo-Tapa and Gregory Pierron).
Creatures (9)
Planeswalkers (6)
Lands (16)
Spells (29)
- 5 Plains
- 5 Island
- 4 Mana Leak
- 1 Jace Beleren
- 2 Oblivion Ring
- 2 Mind Spring
- 1 Martial Coup
- 4 Path to Exile
- 3 Day of Judgment
- 2 Deprive
Sideboard
Parez ran 6 counters main (2 Deprive, 4 Mana Leak) and 6 more in sideboard (4 Flashfreeze and 2 Negate). Twelve is a good number of counters. While I understand the motivation behind playing Sea Gate Oracle and its neat interaction with Sun Titan, I am not convinced the card belongs in the deck. Without something like Vengevine to recur, the card simply doesn’t do enough. I believe we are beyond the days of upgraded Divinations.
Sun Titan is a card I would like to suspend judgment on just now. Getting back Jace Beleren, Wall of Omens, or Oblivion Ring sounds pretty sweet, but the opportunity cost of playing the Titan is extremely high. Basically by playing the Titan you are saying it is better than drawing 4 cards (Mind Spring), generating a 5/5 flying Shroud creature (Sphinx of Jwar Isle), casting Baneslayer Angel a turn sooner, or waiting a turn to destroy all creatures and make five soldier tokens (Martial Coup). It is certainly in the same ball park as these competing cards, but I have not played enough with or against the card to say definitively whether it is the best option for this slot in the deck.
Creatures (6)
Planeswalkers (9)
Lands (26)
Spells (19)
- 4 Mana Leak
- 2 Condemn
- 1 Cancel
- 2 Oblivion Ring
- 2 Path to Exile
- 2 Essence Scatter
- 2 Day of Judgment
- 2 Deprive
- 2 Jace's Ingenuity
Sideboard
Wafo-Tapa made top 4 of the event and ran 9 maindeck counters (2 Essence Scatter, 2 Deprive, 1 Cancel, 4 Mana Leak) and had 6 more in the sideboard (1 Flashfreeze, 2 Negate, 1 Cancel, 2 Gather Specimens). It does not surprise me at all that Wafo-Tapa tied Elarar for most number of counters, but what is surprising to me is that two of them cost six mana and essentially act as an Essence Scatter with super-kicker.
While Gather Specimens is not strictly a counter, it functions in the same way. The main purpose of the card, as far as I can tell, is to counter an opposing Titan or Avenger of Zendikar with value. The variance on this card has always been quite high, but with the amount of Titans (of all variety) being played en masse, the upside of playing a card like this might very well be high enough to merit running the card.
Many Ramp players wait until they reach 9 mana to play out their Titans, for fear of Mana Leak, which should give the Blue/White player just enough time to reach six mana and complete the epic blowout. Like the Sun Titan, I need to spend more time testing this card before making a definitive judgment one way or the other, but it certainly has a tremendous upside in the current metagame. Magical Christmas Land has gone the way of the Islands!
Detroit PTQ
This is the deck with which I won a PTQ in Garden City, Michigan with this past weekend, defeating Dustin (The Great Dustini) and his Turboland deck in the finals:
Creatures (9)
Planeswalkers (7)
Lands (17)
Spells (27)
- 4 Plains
- 4 Island
- 4 Mana Leak
- 2 Condemn
- 2 Mind Spring
- 1 Martial Coup
- 2 Path to Exile
- 2 Day of Judgment
- 4 Spreading Seas
- 2 Everflowing Chalice
Sideboard
I only ran 4 maindeck counters (4 Mana Leak), but I sided into 6 more (2 Negate, 4 Flashfreeze). I opted to run Baneslayer Angels and Sphinx of Jwar Isle as my big spells, along with a Martial Coup. Most of my Blue/White testing was against Jund, and so I wanted to make sure I had the necessary tools to give me an advantage in that matchup. Hence I ran the 2 Sphinxes and the 4 Spreading Seas.
I expected Red decks and Titan Ramp decks to also be big contenders, so I sided into 4 Flashfreeze and 2 Negate. Also, Kor Firewalker was really good in both these matchups. At least 3 copies of Oblivion Ring have to be somewhere in your 75 in order to handle Planeswalkers and various other cards that can become a problem once they are on the board (Ascensions, Font of Mythos, Eldrazi Monument, etc.).
Analysis and Recommendations
It appears my predictions from last week were fairly accurate, and for the most part those who had the most success followed my recommendations (unbeknownst to themselves, I’m sure). Red decks did not perform as well as I had imagined, likely because of the amount of Blue/White decks flourishing. Titan Ramp decks were as big and as successful as I had anticipated. And Blue/White with heavy counter-magic seemed to be the optimal deck to play, nearly across the board.
So what would I recommend you play next weekend?
Brainstorms and Force of Wills… unless you are not planning on competing in Grand Prix Columbus, in which case I think you should stick with Blue/White Control, but figure out some good plan for the mirror.
The nice/difficult thing about Blue White is that it is nearly impossible to hate out. In order to beat it you almost have to pick a deck that is designed to edge it out (NLB or some Turbo Land builds) but at the expense of compromising many of your other matchups. Jund is still the most played deck, and so if you expect to win a tournament you have to beat at least a couple Jund opponents. And in order to accomplish this, I think one would be better off playing Blue/White and just figuring out a way to beat the mirror than to play one of the other mentioned decks. I guess Turboland is still fine since it has game against both Jund and Blue/White, but I’d stick with Blue/White again if given the opportunity next week.
Bonus Sideboarding Tips
Against Jund
My plan against Jund was:
-3 Jace, -2 Path to Exile, -1 Martial Coup, -2 Day of Judgment
+4 Flashfreeze, +4 Kor Firewalker
I considered leaving in Day of Judgment on the draw, and did against one guy running Siege-Gang Commander, but most of the time you want to board it out, I think. Sure, since we are running Spreading Seas they probably board out Sprouting Thrinax, which makes Day that much better against Jund, but unless they are the aggressive Plated Geopede version, I’m likely siding out the Days. Firewalker accomplishes a lot of what you want Day to do anyway.
Against Red Green Titan Ramp
-2 Condemn, -2 Path to Exile, -2 Sphinx of Jwar Isle, -2 Day of Judgment, -1 Martial Coup, -2 Wall of Omens, -2 Gideon Jura
+4 Flashfreeze, +4 Kor Firewalker, +2 Negate, +3 Oblivion Ring
If I remember correctly, this is how I boarded. I figured the two cards I cared about most were Primeval Titan and Destructive Force. Condemn is awful since using it to kill a Titan means they already searched up 4 Tectonic Edges / Raging Ravines. Similarly any of the other creature removal spells are bad answers. You’re much better off just countering him with Mana Leak or Flashfreeze.
Oblivion Ring is primarily for Garruk since the Planeswalker can quickly allow them to play around Mana Leak or just generate a bunch of beasts. Sphinx is too slow since you never want to tap out late in the game and waiting for 8 mana is just not worth it. Similarly Gideon Jura does not do enough. All his abilities are bad except the 6/6 ability, which will not beat a Titan in a race. I chose to keep Baneslayer Angel in as my win condition of choice since she can actually beat a Titan in a race and can come down at 7 mana backed by a Flashfreeze for their Destructive Force.
If you run Gather Specimens or Essence Scatter, those obviously come in for this matchup. I did not run either, so I went with what I had.
Against Turboland
-1 Martial Coup, -2 Condemn, -4 Wall of Omens, -4 Spreading Seas
+4 Flashfreeze, +2 Negate, +2 Luminarch Ascension, +3 Oblivion Ring
I’m not entirely sure this is correct, since siding out all the cantrips makes you draw less lands on average. Maybe a fourth Tectonic Edge could be added to the sideboard for this reason. I only played against one Turboland opponent all day, but I played him twice: once to be able to draw into Top 8 and then again in the finals. I was the only person all day to beat him.
The key to the matchup is loading up on counter-magic. Turboland really only has a handful of cards you have to counter, and burning some of your counter-magic is very easy to do if you draw too much of it. I only had 10 counters, and that was barely enough. I would probably feel safer with 12 (either Essence Scatter or Negate).
Against Blue/White
Somehow I managed to dodge the mirror all day long, so I never actually had to fight it, but here is what I probably would have done in the mirror:
-2 Day of Judgment, -2 Condemn, -4 Wall of Omens, -1 Spreading Seas
+2 Negate, +2 Luminarch Ascension, +3 Oblivion Ring
Wall of Omens don’t really do anything in the mirror, especially without Sun Titan. Luminarch Ascension ends up being a card that has to get Oblivion Ringed or it will take over the game in a short time. Oblivion Rings are to help win the Jace War and to potentially combat opposing Luminarch Ascensions.
Martial Coup seems like a reasonable response to an opposing Baneslayer Angel, Sun Titan, or whatever. Most people will side out their Day of Judgments, so at most they will have 1 Martial Coup to answer an army of soldiers. Maybe it is bad and should be taken out instead of the Spreading Seas, but I might leave it in depending on what you expect. Condemn is not awful, since it can hit Celestial Colonnades, but I would rather have any of the other cards I’m leaving in. Spreading Seas is a much better answer to the manland than Condemn.
Against Mythic Conscription
-1 Martial Coup, -2 Sphinx of Jwar Isle
+3 Oblivion Ring
This deck is no longer the popular deck of choice for people trying to ‘go big’ quickly and mindlessly. Fauna Shaman makes the deck appealing to some, but I think it is being a bit overshadowed by the various Titan decks at the moment. Nonetheless, our main deck is fairly well equipped to hand the deck. You can afford to go low on life, since attacking is their only way to deal you damage. Just make sure you leave yourself enough breathing room that all your mana and potential win conditions aren’t kept in check by a Birds of Paradise with a potential exalted bonus (i.e. try to avoid being at one life until you have an active Jace, the Mind Sculptor on the board).
Against Red Deck Wins
Jund decks have adapted to beat Red (with Dragon’s Claw), and Blue/White is nearly unwinnable for Red as long as Blue/White stays honest and runs Kor Firewalker in the board. So unless Red comes up with some sicko technology for the control matchup and something like Manic Vandals out of the board for Dragon’s Claws, I would not expect to see much Red in the coming weeks. Nonetheless don’t get caught off guard by an opponent’s poor metagame decision, especially in the early rounds of a tournament where you can literally play against any deck.
-2 Day of Judgment, -1 Martial Coup, -2 Mind Spring, -2 Sphinx of Jwar Isle, -3 Jace
+4 Kor Firewalker, +4 Flashfreeze, +2 Negate
Basically, we just morph into a deck that plays small ball, trading spell for spell, until we get to four or five mana and start dropping Angels and Planeswalkers. Kor Firewalker pretty much represents a free win unless they board in the Red Leyline, in which case I suppose we could board in Oblivion Ring. I’ve played the matchup from both sides and it is really an uphill battle for the Red deck. Traditionally, it always has been.
Good luck to anyone competing in their country’s National Championship or a remaining Amsterdam PTQ!