August
2004-08-08 Dulmen (104 players)
1. UBR Hulk Smash
2. Trinistax – 2 Crucible
3. wMUD – 2 Crucible
4. ?
5. TPS
6. 4C Control – 1 Crucible
7. Trinistax – 2 Crucible
8. U/R/G Fish
2004-08-20 GenCon Indianapolis (79 players)
1. Stacker – 3 Crucible
2. Crucible Workshop Control – 4 Crucible
3. Parfait
4. Control Slaver
5. TPS
6. DeathLong
7. Gro-A-Tog
8. U/R Fish – 1 Crucible SB
2004-08-21 GenCon Championship (151 players)
1. Control Slaver
2. Stacker – 3 Crucible
3. Belcher
4. Stacker – 3 Crucible SB
5. Monoblue
6. Trinistax – 4 Crucible
7. TnT – 2 Crucible
8. U/R Fish – 2 Crucible
2004-08-28 Pittsburgh (53 players)
1. TPS
2. 7/10 Split
3. 4C Control – 2 Crucible
4. Monoblue
5. U/G Madness
6. Control Slaver
7. U/R Fish
8. Dragon
2004-08-29 Genova (91 players)
1. 4C Control – 1 Crucible
2. TPS
3. Workshop Slavery
4. Trinistax – 2 Crucible
5. Monobrown Stacker – 3 Crucible
6. Monobrown Stacker – 3 Crucible
7. TPS
8. TPS
5 Top 8s totaled (53,79,91,104,151 = 95.6 average players)
6 TPS (1,2,5,5,7,8)
5 Stacker (1,2,3,5,6)
4 Trinistax (2,4,6,7)
4 Fish (7,8,8,8)
3 4C Control (1,3,6)
3 Control Slaver (1,4,6)
2 Monoblue (4,5)
1 Hulk Smash (1)
1 7/10 Split (2)
1 Crucible Workshop Control (2)
1 Belcher (3)
1 Parfait (3)
1 wMUD (3)
1 Workshop Slaver (3)
1 U/G Madness (5)
1 DeathLong (6)
1 GAT (7)
1 TnT (7)
1 Dragon (8)
1 ?
(1) Fractured Metagame?
Metagame Occurrence Percentages
(Archetypes under 0.5% average excluded.)
Mean% – Mar., Apr., May., Jun., Jul., Aug.
11.8% – _9.7, _9.7, 14.6, 19.6, _9.7, _7.5 4C Control
_9.8% – _4.2, _8.5, _8.3, _8.9, 11.1, 17.5 Storm Combo
_8.8% – 12.5, _8.5, 10.4, 10.7, _8.3, _2.5 Hulk Smash
_5.6% – _5.6, _6.9, _4.2, _8.9, _5.6, _2.5 Dragon
_5.1% – _5.6, _2.8, _6.3, _0.0, _6.9, 10.0 Fish
_4.9% – _2.8, _4.2, _2.1, _3.6, _6.9, 10.0 Stax
_4.8% – _2.8, _1.4, _2.1, _7.2, _2.8, 12.5 Stacker
_4.3% – _2.8, _4.2, _6.3, _5.4, _6.9, _0.0 Madness (R/G, R/U/G)
_4.0% – _2.8, _4.2, _6.3, _1.8, _1.4, _7.5 Control Slavery
_3.8% – _1.4, _2.8, _2.1, _0.0, 13.9, _2.5 MUD / wMUD
_3.2% – _1.4, _5.6, _2.1, _3.6, _4.2, _2.5 Workshop Slavery
_3.1% – _5.6, _1.4, _4.2, _7.2, _0.0, _0.0 FCG / Gobvantage
_3.1% – _0.0, _1.4, _6.3, _5.4, _2.8, _2.5 GAT
_2.8% – _2.8, _5.6, _4.2, _1.8, _0.0, _2.5 TnT
_2.6% – _2.8, _1.4, _2.1, _5.4, _1.4, _2.5 Belcher
_2.3% – _0.0, _4.2, _0.0, _5.4, _4.2, _0.0 Affinity
_2.3% – _2.8, _4.2, _4.2, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0 Landstill
_2.0% – _5.6, _4.2, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 Rector
_1.5% – _2.8, _4.2, _0.0, _1.8, _0.0, _0.0 Vengeur Masque
_1.4% – _0.0, _1.4, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _5.0 Monoblue
_1.2% – _2.8, _0.0, _4.2, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 R/G Beatz
_1.1% – _0.0, _0.0, _2.1, _1.8, _0.0, _2.5 7/10 Split
_0.7% – _1.4, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0, _1.4, _0.0 Goblin Sligh
_0.7% – _2.8, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 Sligh
_0.7% – _0.0, _4.2, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 Modular
_0.7% – _0.0, _0.0, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _2.5 U/G Madness
_0.6% – _1.4, _0.0, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 Oshawa Stompy
_0.5% – _1.4, _0.0, _0.0, _1.8, _0.0, _0.0 EBA
_0.5% – _2.8, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 SuperGro
_0.5% – _2.8, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 MadDragon
_0.5% – _1.4, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 U/rPhid
_0.5% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0 Kiodo CounterBurn
_0.5% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0 Zombie Infestation
Data Period – # unique archetypes (per T8) [number of archetypes in each Top 8] = [average]
2003-09&10 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 6,8,5,7,8 = 6.8
—–Mirrodin legal
2003-11&12 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 4,7,5,6,8 = 6.0
—–Restriction: Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, Lion’s Eye Diamond
2004-Jan – 26 archetypes (4.4 / T8) 6,8,7,7,7 = 7.0
2004-Feb – 19 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,7,7,7,7 = 6.8
—–Darksteel legal
2004-Mar – 34 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,8,8,7,7,6,7,6,7 = 6.9
2004-Apr – 28 archetypes (3.1 / T8) 7,8,7,7,8,8,5,6,7 = 7.0
2004-May – 21 archetypes (3.5 / T8) 7,6,6,5,7,7 = 6.3
2004-Jun – 18 archetypes (2.6 / T8) 6,5,7,6,8,6,5 = 6.1
—–Fifth Dawn legal
2004-Jul – 19 archetypes (2.1 / T8) 7,7,6,5,7,6,5,6,6 = 6.1
2004-Aug – 19 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 7,8,7,8,5 = 7.0
Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr., May., Jun., Jul., Aug.
___5, ___5, ___9, ___9, ___6, ___7, ___9, ___5 tournaments
_250, _267, _358, _335, _271, _262, _255, _224 cardnames*
* : Excluding basic, dual, and fetchlands
In a sudden trend reversal, the average number of archetypes in a Top 8 shot up to seven, and I blame Steve Menendian! Personally accounting for 5% of this month’s stats, Smmenen’s roguish deck choices (DeathLong and Monoblue) added two archetypes to the results. Other well-known TMDers Rich Mattiuzzo (Shock Wave) and Ray Mitchell (Razor) played rogue decks to singleton showings, making the GenCon Friday tournament very exotic and diverse. Fortunately, even the rogue decks are following trends of using the best cards. For instance, Mattiuzzo’s rogue creation put together Mana Drain, Mishra’s Workshop, and Crucible of Worlds – the former two almost never considered compatible before.
(2) Unrestrictions
For the few who don’t know, the DCI unrestricted Fork, Braingeyser, Earthcraft, and Doomsday. This was minor news compared to the”1.5″ upheaval, but this is a Type One column, and the internet is already alive with excitement and interest in the new format elsewhere, so I’ll stick to the format at hand. There were two breeds of surprise at the unrestrictions:”Why not more?” and”Why Doomsday?”
In May, I recommended the unrestrictions of Braingeyser, Earthcraft, Fork, Mind Over Matter, Stroke of Genius, and Voltaic Key. Well, I got half of my wish list. Quick review, with another quarter of broken decks behind us:
MOM has now been cleared completely, as far as I can tell. Academy Rector + Cabal Therapy is still at least as good as MOM + [Tap: Draw permanent, eg. Archivist] for drawing cards. MOM is always at least a two-card combo, and two card combos aren’t impressive in this format, even if they just win the game like Illusions of Grandeur + Donate, Staff of Domination + Metalworker, Earthcraft + Squirrel Nest, Psychatog + Berserk, and others that actual combo deckbuilders know better than me. Rector hasn’t been winning for three months now, and that deck is based on turn 3 Yawgmoth’s Bargain.
The other two, Stroke and Voltaic Key, surprised many by their absence. The DCI has officially agreed how weak Braingeyser is, but Stroke of Genius is somehow still dangerous? Buh? With Skeletal Scrying setting the bar, why would you forego two cards to keep a few dead cards in the graveyard and retain two life points? Combo potential? If you have that much colorless, you can Goblin Cannon them, use Ambassador Laquatus, or Cunning Wish for the singleton Stroke. Voltaic Key is just bad. There’s nothing to untap that would deserve putting extra cards in your deck to do so, rather than cramming in more mana or broken effects. I’m not sure what’s still scary here.
Others are less cautious about Regrowth, Enlightened Tutor, Entomb, and even Time Spiral than myself, but I still don’t think the time is ripe for them.
The flip side of those absences is Doomsday. In May I said it was worth being cautious about Doomsday because a five-card library should easily allow setup of whatever kill condition you want, very quickly. People are trying to think of ways to bust it open, but I haven’t seen anything make waves yet.
I suspect that the DCI considered the following to be strong enough factors to allow unrestriction: (a) BBB mana cost, (b) Force of Will, and (c) negative synergy with Tendrils of Agony. The former two also apply to Necropotence, but the reason they matter here is that Doomsday isn’t as unilaterally broken as Necro; you have to set your deck up to be compatible with it. Force of Will is good against Doomsday because whatever kill you set up, if countered, should mean you lose. So the trick is to let Doomsday go and then counter the kill. The last factor is the key, though: Tendrils is the best combo card since Urza block; it’s the uncounterable kill that makes control decks lose to combo, and Doomsday doesn’t help it in the least. And obviously Goblin Charbelcher, the present fastest combo, can’t be complemented by the card. So unless someone comes up with a nutty new win condition, it oughta be okay.
(3) TPS in North America?
In an amazing turn of events, Americans played combo this month, in the form of TPS (“The Perfect Storm”). I’ve only got one Italian Top 8 in August (usually there are two to four), and the other half of the TPS appearances were from Germany, Pennsylvania, and GenCon (not the Championship; the Friday daytime tournament). Smmenen even abandoned Draw7 for DeathLong (list linked to above), spurning his former brainchild, Diminishing Returns. But DeathLong came up once in the hands of its creator, while TPS came up in widespread metagames for a surprising 15% of all T8 decks. If it performs at the next Waterbury and/or the StarCityGames.com Power 9 Tournaments, we’ll have an official Good Combo Deck on hand that not even the cynical New England control players can ignore.
This is particularly interesting because it’s such a well-known deck. In the last quarter of 2003, Dragon made up 17.5% of the T8 decks, but that did not end in the restriction of Bazaar of Baghdad. Long.dec, sometimes called Burning Desire, was just a turn faster, and had less than half as many Top 8 slots in that three-month period. The old TPS had half again as many appearances as Long, the key distinction between the two being Force of Will and White cards in TPS, and Burning Wish with Lion’s Eye Diamond in Long. And Academy Rector decks had just as many appearances as Long. This was the last period when combo decks were strong enough to get restricted, so when we have a multi-metagame combo deck at the top of the charts, it’s worth comparing objectively to Long’s gold standard.
If Dragon was more widespread, why didn’t it get the treatment? If other Dark Ritual-fueled Tendrils decks were also successful at the same time, why wasn’t anything done to them? I think the DCI saw Dragon and Rector as answerable decks, which is borne out by their present lack of successes. TPS, though, is a much tougher nut. Most of its success comes in Italy, which I’ve discussed before as the place with the highest level of Workshop use, for the most intensive amount of prison components. TPS wins through Trinisphere and Chalice of the Void, where Long would have rolled over and only won by luck and going first.
Before I sound like Chicken Little, I’ll say that as much as I wish Ritual was nixed, I can’t provide adequate justification right now to do so. TPS wins through more”hate” than Long might have, but it is a combo deck so slow that it plays Fact or Fiction and Skeletal Scrying. In Type One, that’s almost fair by itself, in the same way that Dragon’s (relative) fairness is hinted at by its omission of Yawgmoth’s Will despite being natively Black. Type One is becoming mature and stable enough that restrictions should follow Smmenen’s standards, and not worrying about what a deck might do.
TPS only just this month passed Psychatog as the second highest performer over the last six months, and Psychatog is another combo-control deck which is alternately maligned as horrible and complained about because it’s too good, depending on who’s talking. The cases are similar enough that I think they both show deck types that need to display 25% or higher metagame presence to get restricted in and of themselves. So for the Ritual-haters of the world, just keep winning with TPS and sooner or later, we can be rid of it and all play blue-based control forever!
(4) Watch List
In terms of appearances per Top 8:
Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr., May., Jun., Jul., Aug.
_2.8, _3.4, _3.1, _3.3, _4.0, _4.0, _3.1, _3.6 – 18 Yawgmoth’s Will
_7.8, _6.4, _4.7, _8.9, _4.2, _6.0, _9.8, 11.4 – 57 Mishra’s Workshop
10.4, _8.5, 10.2, _9.3, 13.8, 10.3, _8.0, _8.6 – 43 Mana Drain
____, ___, ___, ____, ____, _0.4, _4.6, _8.2 – 41 Crucible of Worlds
_1.6, _5.6, _4.0, _4.7, _4.0, _4.6, _4.8, _6.4 – 32 Dark Ritual
_5.2, _7.4, _6.3, _6.3, _8.5, _8.9, _6.1, _4.2 – 21 Cunning Wish
_1.6, _0.0, _3.0, _1.3, _1.8, _1.9, _0.4, _1.8 – 9 Elvish Spirit Guide
Record Workshops and Dark Rituals in the same month as Crucible redoubles its presence sounds pretty exciting, but while these are important trends, nothing is begging for a restriction in terms of dominance. At this point, the only decks in the format that aren’t defined by Mana Drain (32.9% of the six-month metagame), Dark Ritual (14.4%), Mishra’s Workshop (21.3%), Bazaar of Baghdad (11.5%), or Null Rod (12.0%) that were also successful enough to make the chart in part one above were Affinity and Vengeur Masque, making an astounding 3.8% of the six-month metagame.*
* : There are some debatables in there like counting R/G Beatz and other aggro decks for Null Rod, but really, aggro without Null Rod is kinda crazy except for Affinity and Bazaar Madness, which abuse the Moxes like the other good decks in the format. Also, they total to less than 100% because of the archetypes which compose less than 0.5% of the 6-month meta not being counted.
(5) Card Totals From Jeek
Missing decklists: 1 unknown archetype
63 Island
14 Mountain
14 Swamp
11 Plains
7 Forest
75 Polluted Delta
36 Flooded Strand
6 Bloodstained Mire
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Windswept Heath
62 Volcanic Island
57 Underground Sea
14 Tropical Island
9 Tundra
5 Taiga
3 Badlands
2 Bayou
35 Mox Sapphire
33 Black Lotus
33 Mox Jet
33 Mox Pearl
33 Mox Ruby
33 Sol Ring
31 Ancestral Recall
28 Mox Emerald
27 Time Walk
26 Mana Crypt
22 Strip Mine
21 Mana Vault
20 Demonic Tutor
20 Tinker
20 Tolarian Academy
19 Memory Jar
19 Mystical Tutor
18 Yawgmoth’s Will
14 Fact or Fiction
14 Vampiric Tutor
12 Library of Alexandria
12 Timetwister
12 Wheel of Fortune
11 Lotus Petal
8
“>Necropotence
8
“>Windfall
7
“>Mind’s Desire
7
“>Yawgmoth’s Bargain
6
“>Balance
6
“>Time Spiral
4
“>Gush
4
“>Mind Twist
3
“>Chrome Mox
3
“>Lion’s Eye Diamond
3
“>Mox Diamond
2
“>Crop Rotation
2
“>Enlightened Tutor
2
“>Regrowth
1
“>Burning Wish
1
“>Channel
1
“>Demonic Consultation
1
“>Entomb
1
“>Fastbond
1
“>Grim Monolith
1 Stroke of Genius
96 Force of Will
81 Wasteland
74 Brainstorm
60 Goblin Welder
57 Blue Elemental Blast
57 Mishra’s Workshop
50 Chalice of the Void
50 Red Elemental Blast
48 Trinisphere
46 Duress
43 Mana Drain
42 Rack and Ruin
41 Crucible of Worlds
39 Tormod’s Crypt
38 Thirst for Knowledge
32 Dark Ritual
27 Smokestack
27 Tangle Wire
24 Blood Moon
24 Triskelion
23 Fire / Ice
22 Sundering Titan
21 Cunning Wish
20 Misdirection
19 Juggernaut
19 Shivan Reef
18 Stifle
16 City of Brass
16 Cloud of Faeries
16 Energy Flux
16 Gorilla Shaman
16 Mana Leak
16 Mishra’s Factory
16 Spiketail Hatchling
15 Grim Lavamancer
15 Metalworker
15 Standstill
14 Daze
14 Hurkyl’s Recall
14 Null Rod
14 Tendrils of Agony
13 Curiosity
13 Duplicant
13 Gemstone Mine
13 Rebuild
13 Swords to Plowshares
12 Ancient Tomb
12 Chain of Vapor
12 Flametongue Kavu
12 Hydroblast
12 Skeletal Scrying
12 Xantid Swarm
11 Back to Basics
11 Karn, Silver Golem
11 Mindslaver
11 Su-Chi
10 Echoing Truth
9 Elvish Spirit Guide
9 Powder Keg
9 Viashino Heretic
8 Accumulated Knowledge
8 Faerie Conclave
8 Gilded Lotus
8 Ophidian
8 Propaganda
7 Coffin Purge
7 Deep Analysis
7 Goblin Charbelcher
7 Quirion Dryad
6 Arcbound Crusher
6 City of Traitors
6 Damping Matrix
6 Darksteel Colossus
6 Decree of Justice
6 Impulse
6 Petrified Field
6 Sphere of Resistance
5 Brain Freeze
5 Darksteel Citadel
5 Exalted Angel
5 Meditate
5 Naturalize
5 Oxidize
5 Squee, Goblin Nabob
4 Argivian Find
4 Arrogant Wurm
4 Basking Rootwalla
4 Bazaar of Baghdad
4 Careful Study
4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Counterspell
4 Death Wish
4 Ebony Charm
4 Humility
4 Intuition
4 Land Grant
4 Land Tax
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mogg Salvage
4 Morphling
4 Platinum Angel
4 Scroll Rack
4 Seal of Cleansing
4 Survival of the Fittest
4 Tinder Wall
4 Tsabo’s Web
4 Wild Mongrel
3 Animate Dead
3 Artifact Mutation
3 Chains of Mephistopheles
3 Control Magic
3 Defense Grid
3 Disenchant
3 Glimmervoid
3 Jester’s Cap
3 Masticore
3 Memnarch
3 Necromancy
3 Nevinyrral’s Disk
3 Night Whispers
3 Old Man of the Sea
3 Pentavus
3 Psychatog
3 Pyroblast
3 Roar of the Wurm
3 Sigil of Sleep
3 Solemn Simulacrum
3 Sword of Fire and Ice
3 Worldgorger Dragon
2 Cabal Ritual
2 Dance of the Dead
2 Frantic Search
2 Karmic Justice
2 Living Wish
2 Maze of Ith
2 Meltdown
2 Mind’s Eye
2 Mystic Remora
2 Orim’s Chant
2 Overload
2 Pernicious Deed
2 Prohibit
2 Quiet Speculation
2 Ray of Revelation
2 Replenish
2 Rushing River
2 Serum Visions
2 Shattering Pulse
2 Slice and Dice
2 Sliver Queen
2 Thalakos Seer – WTF of the Month
2 Uktabi Orangutan
2 Voidmage Prodigy
2 Werebear
2 Zuran Orb
1 Ambassador Laquatus
1 Anger
1 Annul
1 Berserk
1 Darksteel Ingot
1 Diminishing Returns
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Engineered Plague
1 Fling
1 Genesis
1 Ghastly Demise
1 Great Furnace
1 Hull Breach
1 Mana Cylix
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Primitive Justice
1 Scavenger Folk
1 Simplify
1 Smother
1 Sphere of Law
1 Starstorm
1 The Abyss
1 Tranquil Domain
1 Wail of the Nim