One of the hard things about format rotation is the loss of deck archetypes that would otherwise feel perfect. The natural progress that happens in metagame formation is more than enough in and of itself to encourage a change in the deck that one plays, week in and week out. The format will change radically because of the collective intelligence’s access to new information, be it the week’s articles, information from various tournaments, decklists from MTGO, or, most importantly, high profile tournament results.
I wouldn’t want to have been attempting to play Slide, for example, the week after LSV’s victory in Los Angeles. It doesn’t matter that the card pool hasn’t changed. What matters is that the deck is fresh in people’s minds. What matters is that in the course of checking out LSV’s version of a list, some people are bound to kind of fall in love with it. It is inevitable that it will show up more often in events the next week. It is inevitable that some people will show up with copies (or variants) of a list like Michael Jacob Black/Green Aggro list. Serious players are likely to have checked out every PTQ Top 8 that they can find. A week after one PTQ, copies of every list from the Top 8 of that PTQ is potentially going to show up anywhere (sometimes to the chagrin of the deckbuilder — John Treviranus was surprised to hear that someone else played an exact copy of his PTQ Madison Tron list, and was doing better than he was at this weekend’s PTQ).
These metagame shifts are inevitable. It used to be that they would happen slowly, but that time in the history of the game is behind us. It used to be that one of the most exciting moments in the game was the U.S. Open — the last-chance “Meatgrinders” that gained lucky players access to the main event, U.S. Nationals. It was exciting, as a younger Mike Flores and I noted, because the metagame shifts were incredibly intense. You would see weeks and weeks of metagame development happening over the course of hours.
A part of that was simply because decks were worse back then. An examination of the early World Championship decks that went up this week are proof of that. In the late ‘90s, deckbuilders started to get their act together. These days, decks tend to be even better than ever before, but even more so, people’s access to good decks has gone through the roof. Even without being a deckbuilder, or a friend of a friend of one, public information is larger than it ever has been, and so every deck is better, and every player can be playing a better deck. The bar is higher.
All of these things shift our decks, week-in, and week-out. But what also shifts them are access to new cards. Conflux is out. What does it mean?
I’ve already written my impressions of what cards in Extended actually matter (answer: very few). So far, the only cards I’m actually seeing see play are the following:
Path to Exile: Yes, this card is seeing some play. I already went into why I think the card is mostly garbage. I got a lot of heat for that statement two weeks ago, but it really looks like some people are coming around to my way of thinking. Simply put, the tempo and card advantage loss is too much when you’re the playing the card early. Play it late, and why not simply play a slightly more expensive card, or a more limited one (like Condemn or Terror). Though crappy, it doesn’t mean that this card isn’t a potential role-player. If your deck can make up the loss, you can mitigate the pain and keep the gain. Decks that run Ghost Quarter are, then, potential candidates for Path. Killing a Kitchen Finks is another reasonable thing to do with it, if your deck sucks against Finks. Running it as a dedicate sideboard card versus Affinity is reasonable (though why not Kataki at that point, unless you’re also hoping to do double duty by whacking Deus of Calamity). The point is that the card is not good on its own, it is only good contextually (if ever).
Inkwell Leviathan: I have indeed seen this card Zombified, which is about exactly what I’d expect from it, though I’m expecting other reanimation might also be making him get to work.
Hellspark Elemental: It is definitely seeing some playtime. I’ve seen it in Burn and Zoo, and it definitely does what it looks like it will: brings some pain, if you have the time to use it.
Might of Alara: At the PTQ I attended, this card seemed to bring an upswell of Five-Color Zoo. I can’t tell you how many times I saw someone succumb to end-of-your-turn-itis, and get wrecked. (End-your-turn-itis is the sickness that makes people wait as long as possible to use their instants. Giant Growth type effects are often incredibly good at messing with people who do this with burn. While burning a creature in response to Giant Growths is awesome, it is far more amazing to Giant Growth in response to burn, especially when you’re talking about a Giant Growth for 4 or 5).
Noble Hierarch: Bant decks, rejoice. I saw this card in every Bant deck at the PTQ I was at. Move over Birds, I guess.
Knight of the Reliquary: For people that could acquire this chase rare, I definitely saw it in action. It was always big when I saw it, never huge, and looked just fine (though less awesome than the hype surrounding it).
And lastly…
Volcanic Fallout: This card saw a little bit of play for those players looking to hate out Elves and Wizzies. And, for some reason, was put into the sideboard of my deck by a number of people. Not the call I would make, but, the allure of new cards is always a big deal.
When we look at these very few new cards, it really does seem as though the decks that got most of the help were the aggressive ones. Bant might be a wee bit closer to Midrange Control (or beatdown, depending), but other than that, the threat decks seem to have gotten the most help. Path to Exile is about the only major main deck bone thrown to the control decks, and most of the people that I know who tested decks with Path to Exile ended up discarding those lists as “not good enough,” unless they were also including the Paths in decks that ran with Ghost Quarter.
This leaves us with an Extended that is shaped something like this, if we count decks that have at least 2 PTQ Top 8s:
Aggressive decks:
Affinity
Five-Color Zoo
Prosak Zoo
SRB (Stupid Red Burn)
Black-Green Jacob Aggro
Sullivan Ponza (or Sullivan Red, if you prefer)
Combo decks:
Storm
Elves
Control decks:
Wizards
SLU (Some Level Blue)
Death Cloud
Tezzerator
There are other decks out there, but that is a huge slew of things to try to imagine beating. Honestly, it’s rough.
The thing about this list, as I gaze at it, is that I absolutely can imagine tweaks going into any of the decks that would make a solid player who gets just a little lucky win with any of the above lists. Twelve different major archetypes have seen verified success. There are probably many, many more decks out there that are doing well enough to be thought about.
What can you do about it? Be scared because your deck doesn’t beat Loam? One of my friends, Kate, was worried because she couldn’t get her deck to beat her boyfriend, Ben Rasmussen’s, deck (not in the list above). My advice to anyone, right now: don’t sweat it.
You can try to have great plans against any of the above twelve decks. Imagine, if you will, that you have a new deck idea (or a revamp of an old one), and you know your game 1 matchups on some of the bad matchups are as follows:
Prosak Zoo — ~33%
Five-Color Zoo — ~40%
Death Cloud – ~20%
Green/Black Jacob Aggro – ~30%
The thing to remember, assuming your testing is correct, is that you aren’t going to usually win this match, but you shouldn’t completely go out of your way to make it happen. First of all, with so many viable decks, seeing any particular one isn’t necessarily going to happen. But second of all, if you at least have a plan, maybe you can get a little lucky. Maybe your opponent will make a mistake. Maybe they won’t have as good a plan as you do, and you actually have a +15% (so to speak) to your matchup.
There is an old maxim in war that applies to Magic: try to make sure no one dies, and you end up getting every killed. Getting caught up in trying to beat everything is a sure way to lose to everything. It is absolutely possible to have a deck that is simply the best deck, and won’t lose without a lot of help. This is deeply rare, though. The way that sideboarding can be imagine is like this: both decks soup up their deck for the matchup, and if they do their job well, one gives the matchup a +X% in its favor, and the other gives the matchup a +Y% in its favor. Someone will do better, here. If you both give yourselves, say, a +20%, that’s a push. But if your Five-Color Zoo opponent gives herself a +20%, and you, stretched thin trying to beat everything, only give yourself a +5%, your sideboarded games don’t stick to 40%, but drop to 25%. These kinds of game 1/game 2 swings are deeply possible with sideboarding. In all, the matchup math works out to this, in the example: a 35% matchup for the full match turns into a 21% matchup. One in three is a lot better than one in five.
For every time that you can come up with a statement, “Well, NLU will just Shackle your few creatures and beat you with Tarmogoyf, and counter your attempt to stop them,” you have to remember that scenarios can be painted to make anything look dire or beautiful. Don’t trick yourself into over committing because you have The Fear. Even non-Red decks can have The Fear. Don’t succumb. Just play a deck that is good, and be prepared, as best you can. The metagame might mostly be made up of some combination of the twelve decks above, but reality is the random hodge-podge of what you actually play against. Here’s the breakdown of the decks that I’ve played against in two tournaments:
Wizards: 3
Prosak Zoo: 2
Martyr: 2
Elves: 1
Aggro Loam: 1
Five-Color Zoo: 1
Tron: 1
Affinity: 1
Bant: 1
Tezzerator: 1
My three match losses came from Wizards, Tezzerator, and Martyr. Notice, though, that Martyr isn’t even on the list of the decks I was preparing to play against. Nor was Bant! In fact, five of the decks on that list, I haven’t seen yet.
Don’t sweat every deck, just play something good, and hope for the best.
Speaking of good…
Creatures (19)
Lands (19)
Spells (22)
- 1 Umezawa's Jitte
- 4 Incinerate
- 4 Magma Jet
- 3 Shrapnel Blast
- 4 Molten Rain
- 4 Chrome Mox
- 2 Smash to Smithereens
Sideboard
I have to tell you, I really love this deck. Minnesota’s Dave Yetka took this to a second place finish up in Minneapolis this weekend, losing to Affinity in three games. Before the Top 8, he grilled me for sideboarding advice, and then exclaimed, “I love this deck. Sometimes people just crumble and are never in it at all.” That is, indeed, a great feeling.
A ton of people came up to me at the event or emailed me before this weekend to let me know that they were playing it. They wanted to know what Conflux they should include. Their immediate thoughts always went to Banefire and to Volcanic Fallout.
These cards are huge mistakes.
Banefire simply isn’t a card that can be counted on to do much of anything in the deck unless you’re screwed by a huge mana flood. It’s certainly possible that it will pull you out in that case, but at that point, you’re planning for a situation in which you’re screwed. Better is a card that helps you when things are uncertain, that keeps you from getting screwed, or simply locks them out of the game.
This thinking is why I believe a lot of people auto-included a card like Volcanic Fallout to their sideboard of Sullivan Ponza. Again, this is simply a mistake. Volcanic Fallout is throwing out the baby with the bathwater, all in an attempt to hurt Wizards (because it is the most popular among the top set of players) and Elves (because Elves can be scary in game 1). Don’t forget why this deck works: Magus of the Moon and Dwarven Blastminer. Killing these cards is often incredibly disadvantageous, and will simply strand Fallout in your hand. Playing cards that augment the respective strategies of your deck is far better than trying to trump your opponent with a card that actively hurts your plan.
So, what would I change? It was the big question that kept coming up. Honestly, I (mostly) wouldn’t change a thing. There was a moment right before the event where I began to have doubts about the way the list was conceived, simply because of the volumes of emails I had gotten about the deck, and the actual number of people asking me what they should do with the deck at the event. I realized I didn’t really have exciting cards for the mirror match. In a moment of madness, I change a Mountain to a Kher Keep, and dropped a Boil for a Sword of Fire and Ice, thinking that this would give me a marginal advantage in the mirror.
That kind of thinking is simply The Fear talking. Until you get to a point in a format where you can legitimately expect a lot of a deck, working that hard to beat a sliver of the metagame is too much. I had already tested the deck enough to know that I really shouldn’t put in another Figure of Destiny-unfriendly land into the deck. Sword of Fire and Ice was not going to be a very exciting card versus Storm. Just before I had to sit down, I ran back out to the car, and reswitched my cards to make the list exactly what it looks like, above.
Yetka himself changed one card, dropping the singleton Keldon Megalith for another Mountain. This is not a change I recommend. The deck can actively support four lands that might be chuggy, and still have Figure work potently, and a single comes-into-play-tapped land does not stunt its three- and four-mana requirements significantly. Two Megalith absolutely was problematic, but one was just the thing. Nineteen Red sources was a little problematic for Figure sometimes, but twenty was usually great. While I understand his concerns about the Megalith, I feel as though the card has been thoroughly vetted.
As per everyone who requested it, here are the major sideboard plans for the deck:
Affinity
-4 Molten Rain, -4 Magus of the Moon, -1 Umezawa’s Jitte, -1 Figure of Destiny
+4 Trinisphere, +3 Shattering Spree, +3 Dead/Gone
All you’re really trying to do is not have to get lucky, here. Your three-drops are slow and largely ineffective unless you get lucky, so you replace them with incredibly efficient removal, and Trinisphere, which can not only make Affinity play fair, but also do the job of completely locking out the mana-light deck. Jitte is a card that absolutely can be devastating, but often just ends up languishing in the space of “well, it didn’t work — again”.
Matchup: A
Five-Color Zoo/Prosak Zoo
-2 Smash to Smithereens, -3 Magma Jet
+3 Dead/Gone, +2 Umezawa’s Jitte
Dead/Gone serves as a cheap answer to an early critter or stranded Nacatl, and a Gone against a big creature that is coming calling. Magma Jet is often simply the worst burn spell you have against their deck, particularly the Prosak build. Fanatic isn’t exciting, but it can help make a Jitte war not be lost, as well as pick up a Jitte. If you’re playing against a heavily artifact based deck, keeping in one or both Smash to Smithereens is reasonable (consider cutting 4th Jet and shaving off a Shrapnel Blast in this case). Their mana is fragile (especially the White), so punish them for it.
Matchup: B
Black-Green Jacob Aggro/Death Cloud
-2 Smash to Smithereens, -4 Incinerate
+3 Dead/Gone, +2 Umezawa’s Jitte, +1 Trinisphere
You want to win any Jitte wars that happen here, but there really aren’t the targets necessary for Smash to Smithereens. Despite the fact that they are a Loam deck, they can often be stunted on mana, and so you do want to be ready to aggressively mulligan to this end, stranding them from their ability to cast the good spells. The “miser’s” Trinisphere can keep them honest if you draw it, but doesn’t chug things up if you draw multiples.
Matchup: B-
Storm
+4 Trinisphere, +3 Boil
-4 Mogg Fanatic, -3 Incinerate
Here, you simply have to get lucky. A Trinisphere can absolutely be bounced, but what you’re hoping to have happen is that you’ll do just enough to keep them off of their game that they don’t get there. This means aggressively mulliganing in games two and three. A lucky Trinisphere paired with the right mana denial can steal a win, but it’s not pretty.
Matchup: C-/D+
Elves
+4 Trinisphere, +3 Dead/Gone, +2 Umezawa’s Jitte
-4 Incinerate, -3 Shrapnel Blast, -2 Smash to Smithereens
Here, you’re just trying to slow them down, while you punish them, hopefully, with a Figure. Cards like Incinerate or Shrapnel Blast are simply not as useful if you’re hitting creatures with them as a Dead/Gone is. While Trinisphere can be blown up, it is often a pain for them to do, and will buy you some time in the meantime.
Matchup: B-
Wizards
+3 Boil, +2 Umezawa’s Jitte
-2 Smash to Smithereens, -3 Shrapnel Blast
Overall, these decks tend to be a very solid matchup, as you attack them from so many different angles. Playing appropriately around Spellstutter Sprite and Spell Snare is key. The real problem with this matchup is that they are an incredibly powerful deck, and things have the potential to go badly at a moment’s notice, if they can shift to Aggro-control. This is still favored, but you have to play it smart and tight — not like me in my finals loss to Owen Turtenwald…
(If they are the artifact-heavy builds, keep two Smash to Smithereens, and consider adding up to two Shattering Spree, losing Incinerates to make room.)
Matchup: A-
SLU
+3 Boil, +2 Umezawa’s Jitte, +2 Dead/Gone
-3 Shrapnel Blast, -4 Magma Jet
This matchup is very similar to Wizards, except that they have Tarmogoyf, and often have Shackles. Like Wizards, their mana is fragile, so go after it aggressively, but don’t get caught in their Aggro-control trap, if you can help it. Gone is helpful, here, to return a Goyf back after any green mana is crippled.
Matchup: B
Tezzerator
+3 Boil, +1 Umezawa’s Jitte, +3 Shattering Spree
-4 Incinerate, -3 Shrapnel Blast
There are very few targets here for your burn, other than Tezz himself. What you want to be doing is blowing things up. Shrapnel Blast and Incinerate are easily targeted by Spell Snare, so dodging this to focus on destroying their table is the key. Overall, a great matchup, but be careful not to forget how much work can be accomplish by Trinket Mage, Vendilion Clique, and counters.
Matchup: B+
Stupid Red Burn
+2 Umezawa’s Jitte, +2 Trinisphere
-3 Dwarven Blastminer, -1 Magma Jet
Here, the goal is to simply hope to keep your life total high, and have enough ways to deal damage that you could potentially race them. Blistering Firecat can do a shocking amount of damage, and they are often tapped out. Be careful of Keldon Marauders. Five life is a lot of damage, and sometimes it is better to turn Marauders into a slow Lunge than to take the damage. Trinisphere can sometimes deeply punish them. Remember to aggressively go after Great Furnace with Smash to Smithereens… sometimes it is possible to strand their Shrapnel Blasts.
Matchup: C+
Overall, the most deeply rough matchups are the ones that I haven’t mentioned. Decks like Martyr are completely difficult. I managed to get a draw with one, but, truth be told, if we’d had another twenty minutes, I’m pretty sure he would have won it. Other decks, like Slide, are deeply troubling as well, and combo in general can be rough unless you simply screw them out of their mana. Thankfully, though, this deck is capable of just that.
If anything in the deck is up for debate, it is the three Boils. Whatever you put in that slot, it has to be something that might have a use against Wizards and/or Storm. High option candidates, here, include Sword of Fire and Ice or Cryoclasm (bonus for use against Martyr, but don’t be fooled into bringing it in versus Zoo). Dwarven Blastminer #4 is another option, as it would be useful against Affinity, Zoo, Loam, and others, as well.
I think this deck is a fantastic option for someone who has enjoyed Ponza-style decks in the past, or is looking for some free wins with mana denial. That said, it is incredibly difficult to play. Don’t pick it up without giving it a lot of work beforehand. You’ll probably betray the deck, and lose matches that should have been yours.
Best of luck for everyone still PTQing! See you next week…