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Spotlight on Future Sight — Future Sight’s Impact on Standard

Yesterday, Nick Eisel kick-started our five-part Spotlight on Future Sight series with a look at some of the hits and misses of Future Sight for Limited play. Today, it’s Richard Feldman’s turn. He takes the Top 5 Standard decks in the current metagame and examines the impact that the new cards will have on these fan favorites. Where, exactly, does Pact of Negotiation fit? Does Izzetron gain or lose anything? Is Magus of the Moon suitable for Gruul maindecks? All this, and more, inside!

Imagine the following card:

Seal of Countering
Enchantment
3UU
Sacrifice Seal of Countering: Counter target spell.

Got it? Cool. Just let that simmer for a little bit.

Hello, all!

As you may have noticed in Planar Chaos, we at Star City have begun a trend of offering practical articles about a new set rather than card-by-card set reviews. Practical applications are right up my alley, so when Craig asked me to do an article on Future Sight’s impact on Standard, I jumped at the opportunity. Apologies to those who were expecting more on Walking Anthems today.

There will be a lot of articles on new decks in the upcoming weeks, so today I’m going to set a foundation by discussing Future Sight’s impact on existing archetypes. Specifically, I’m going to focus on how it will affect the Top 5 most popular Standard decks. Remember, even if you see the new cards as a chance to use your powers for Good (that is, to make your own decks), it pays to keep tabs on the competition.

Since local Standard metagames vary from place to place, I’m using MTGO as the, well… as the standard for Standard. Frank Karsten’s latest report says that Solar Flare has jumped into the Top 5 and Mono-Blue Pickles has bumped Dralnu out of the Top 5. That would make my Top 5 consist of the ubiquitous Dragonstorm, the up-and-coming Gruul, the newcomer Solar Flare, the waning Izzetron, and the out-of-left-field Pickles.

However, I’m going to make an executive decision here and replace Pickles with Dralnu in my list of decks to discuss. While Solar Flare’s inclusion is justified by the fact that it literally quadrupled its number of Top 8 slots since Frank’s last report, Mono-Blue Pickles has been fluctuating around 5% for around two months now. It’s been as low as 2% and has recently hit an all-time high at 8%, but this is not enough to convince me that it is suddenly a Deck To Beat as opposed to a fringe deck that had a good week. A Top 5 without Dralnu, on the other hand, seems absurd; it was a Deck To Beat even before Damnation was printed, was the best deck in Standard until Izzetron won Kyoto, and is really tough to label a fringe deck on the basis of one bad run.

So the menu for today will be: Dragonstorm, Gruul, Solar Flare, Izzetron, and Dralnu.

Has the hypothetical Seal of Countering sunk in enough now? 3UU for an enchantment that you can sacrifice at any time to counter target spell? I hope so, because it’s about to come up.

People keep comparing Pact of Negation to a Force of Will that “you can’t use until turn 5,” but this ignores a huge, huge difference between the two cards. In fact, I’d argue that Pact is more comparable to Seal of Countering than it is to Force of Will.

Think about the Seal for a second. You pay five mana – on, say, turn 5 – and then the next time an opponent plays an important spell, you can counter it for free. That’s awesome flexibility, to be sure… but five mana is a lot! We all know that the gap between Counterspell’s UU cost and Cancel’s 1UU is enormous, but the difference between 1UU and 3UU? Gah!

No matter when you spend it, 3UU is a ton of mana. Would you play Seal of Countering in every Blue control deck you ever built? A five-drop counter? You might play a couple, sure, but there’s pretty much no way you’d fit all four copies in the main. It’s nice late-game insurance to help you win important counter wars and to stop Chars when you’re low on life, but if you play too many, you can easily get stuck with a Seal-heavy opener and get crushed before you can play the first one.

I think the most tragically overlooked difference between Force of Will and Pact of Negation is that with Force of Will, you never paid the mana. You lost a Blue card and a point of life, but you never paid a lick of mana for it unless you could and wanted to. If you want to counter a spell with Pact of Negation — barring Angel’s Grace shenanigans — you will pay five mana to do so eventually, so countering that spell has better be really damn important.

Then what’s the Pact good for? That’s a complicated question, as it turns out. Since four out of the Top 5 decks are Blue (and the runner-up Pickles deck was mono-Blue… sordid facts that will brighten Jamie Wakefield day, no doubt), I’m going to go deck-by-deck.

Dragonstorm’s main use for Pact of Negation is on the turn it’s comboing out. Since DS usually goes off on turn 4-5, Pact can’t be used as a disruption spell before then because Dragonstorm can’t afford 3UU in its upkeep until turn 5. (Well, okay, I guess if it has two Storage Counters or a spare Lotus Bloom arriving on turn 4… but you get the idea.)

Would I maindeck Pact of Negation in Dragonstorm? Well, Gigadrowse does the same thing against all forms of countermagic except for Rewind and other Pacts of Negation, while often being a Fog against aggro decks. So do you play Pact because it’s better against Rewind and other Pacts? Doesn’t seem worth it to me. Only Dralnu plays Rewind, and if you’re going off turn 4 or 5, the other guy can’t play a Pact unless he’s assembled 3UU already (because he accelerated it out or because you took too long to go off). What about Remand, then? I’d be loathe to replace Remand with Pact because Remand is cantrip disruption… so for now I think the Pact should stay out of DS’s maindeck.

As a sideboard card, however, I think it’s great. Even if Izzetron or Dralnu ramps to five mana before you go off and tries to Pact your Seething Songs and Lotus Blooms through Gigadrowse, Pacts of your own let you fight back. You can even cast two in the same turn, as long as that will let you kill the opponent this turn. (It doesn’t matter if you owe the game ten mana in your next upkeep if you win before your second main phase. Your opponents, by the way, will not have this luxury.)

Final Verdict: Four in the board for Dragonstorm.

The biggest incentive for running Pact in Izzetron is that five mana is not much of a speed bump when the Tron is online. That makes the Pact a reasonable hard counter in the late game (useful for forcing through Bogardan Hellkites against Dralnu or countering lethal Char), while reaping the midgame benefits as soon as you Signet your way to five mana. I especially like the idea of tapping out for Tidings with Pact backup despite the threat of a counter from a Blue opponent, or of surprising Dragonstorm with Pact on Seething Song or Lotus Bloom.

As I said before, four copies is just too many for a card that really does cost five and not zero. Pacting in the midgame basically means you skip your next turn, so you really have to be doing it in exchange for one really sweet play. You can’t Pact twice in the same turn until you have Tron, or you’ll lose, and Pacting on consecutive midgame turns implies that you’re either at a stable board position or else (probably) losing because you did nothing to the board for two turns in a row.

Final Verdict: Two in the main for Izzetron, and zero or one in the board.

Ironically, it’s the draw-go deck that benefits least from the new counterspell. If I’m a Dralnu player, paying five mana on my own turn is a terrifying prospect; if it wasn’t, I’d probably be playing Tidings by now. That said, I can expect there will be several situations where a free counter would be phenomenal, so I can see Dralnu to packing one as a Teachings target, and maybe a couple more in the board for the Dragonstorm matchup.

Final Verdict: One in the main for Dralnu, and maybe 1-2 more in the board.

Finally we come to Solar Flare. I think this is the deck where Pact can make the most difference. Of all the Blue decks in the Top 5, Flare is not only the one with the most Signets — allowing for a turn 4 Pact — it’s also the one that is the most okay with paying five mana on its own turn in the midgame. Some Blue decks are perfectly okay with a tap-out-a-lot strategy, and Solar Flare is one of them.

Moreover, Solar Flare is arguably the deck most interested in protecting one Big Play. With Tron running Mana Leak, Dralnu running Rewind, and all the Blue decks running Remand, Solar Flare would love a way to force through spells like Persecute, Tidings, Body Double, Angel of Despair, and Akroma. Considering how much work it usually takes to resolve an expensive spell against a Blue deck, merely skipping a turn worth of mana production after the fact seems trivial.

Final Verdict: 3-4 copies in the main (!) for Solar Flare.

So ends the Pact of Negation section and begins the remainder of the article. (Care to guess what tops my list of Future Sight’s Most Influential Cards?)

Solar Flare

Contenders: Judge Unworthy, Scout’s Warning, Aven Mindcensor, Seht’s Tiger, Take Possession, Coalition Relic, New Benalia, Nimbus Maze, Pact of Negation.

Judge Unworthy looks like a solid anti-aggro card. Scry 3 is a powerful effect, and in a deck like Solar Flare, cards that cost three or more (the sweet spot to kill Kird Ape, Scab-Clan Mauler, and Call of the Herd tokens) are everywhere. I’ll Judge your Scab-Clan Unworthy, revealing the Court Hussar that I’ll play next turn to block your Kird Ape. By the way, while I’m at it, I’ll Scry two lands to the bottom because I’ve drawn enough already. Hot.

Unfortunately, I don’t know that there’s any room in Solar Flare’s maindeck or sideboard for this card. It might be better than Faith’s Fetters, except that it can’t be boarded in against Bogardan Hellkite decks.

Scout’s Warning is just Quicken for creatures instead of Sorceries. If there’s one deck in the format that has the creatures to justify this effect, it’s this one. However, while I can dream up some cute circumstances where this is good, I can’t think of enough matchup-specific situations where it would be strong enough to justify cutting one of the existing spells in this deck to make room.

Aven Mindcensor is, of course, a great hoser against the card Dragonstorm. It doesn’t do much against a hardcast Bogardan Hellkite, but Solar Flare has plenty of answers to one of those anyway. The Mindcensor also handy against Dralnu’s Mystical Teachings, but terrible against their Deserts. Overall, there’s no way this card could make the maindeck… but it is a definite sideboard possibility specifically against Dragonstorm. A reasonable question is: does this deck need more board against Dragonstorm? The Top 8 list from GP: Kyoto had only a Castigate and three copies of Circle of Protection: Red, and I’m not sure this deck needs to make room for more narrow cards than those.

Seht’s Tiger, while interesting because it contains an entirely new mechanic, is much worse against Dragonstorm and Demonfire than Luminesce is, and is an overpriced way to counter Persecute-type effects otherwise.

Take Possession looks like a good sideboard card for the mirror and against Dralnu, and might also have applications against Izzetron. It’s uncounterable and takes Teferi, Bogardan Hellkite (after it’s dealt you ten, granted), or a critical Tron piece — and remember, the original reason Angel of Despair was played in Solar Flare was to kill Tron pieces — while, of course, nabbing opposing Akromas and Angels. Its card advantage is negated if it gets removed by an Angel of Despair in the mirror, but otherwise it can completely swing the game in your favor.

Coalition Relic won’t accelerate out turn 3 Persecute or Damnation, but it sure does tap for all three colors of mana and puts you two turns closer to an Angel all by itself. To me, that’s reason enough to try it out.

New Benalia might make more sense in this deck than Flagstones of Trokair. Solar Flare can certainly play a turn 1 land tapped without slowing down, and Scry 1 is a relevant enough ability that I think it would be worth trying.

It appears to me that Solar Flare doesn’t play enough Plains or enough Islands for Nimbus Maze to be reliable.

Final Verdict: Take Possession definitely seems sideboard-worthy in every Solar Flare deck, while Judge Unworthy and Aven Mindcensor make sense in some boards more than others. Coalition Relic, New Benalia, and Pact of Negation each seem worthy of trying out as three- or four-ofs in the maindeck.

Izzetron

Contenders: Take Possession, Venser, Pact of the Giant, Scourge of Kher Ridges, Boldwyn Intimidator, Epochrasite, Pact of Negation

So Confiscate is uncounterable now? Good to know. Izzetron had no real incentive to play the original 4UU Aura, but Take Possession might be a different story. In any case, I would presume that most Tron sideboards will want it.

I can see people wanting to play Venser, Shaper Savant because he resembles Sulfur Elemental from a strategic standpoint, but he’s just not the same. He’s counterable, comes down a turn later, attacks for two instead of three, and costs more. No deal.

Slim pickings from Red… Pact of the Giant? Scourge of Kher Ridges? Boldwyn Intimidator? I can’t think of any cards I’d want to cut from the existing build to make room for these things.

Let’s compare Epochrasite to Bottle Gnomes against Gruul. Naturally, the plan is to chump with it on turn 2, then watch it come back for free on turn 5 as a 4/4. If you’re in enough control of the game, it can just beat down while you keep counter mana up. If not, it’ll either trade with a Solifuge or a Char, or play defense against 3/3s… in any case, it’ll save you a grip of life, almost certainly more than the Gnomes’ ability would have explicitly gained you. The downside, of course, is that it’s not nearly as good of a topdeck when you’re in burn range. However, since most games against Gruul are probably decided by how many early-game beats you take, I’d wager that this guy will make a very effective sideboard card against Stomping Ground decks.

Final Verdict: 2-3 copies of Take Possession in the board, and 2-3 of Pact of Negation between maindeck and sideboard. Epochrasite seems like an excellent sideboard addition, potentially even as a four-of.

Dralnu

Contenders: Delay, Slaughter Pact, Mystic Speculation, Logic Knot, Tombstalker, Nix, Cloud Key, Epochrasite, River of Tears, Pact of Negation

If Delay is going to be played, I think it has the biggest chance of being played in Dralnu. Unlike the other decks, Dralnu can combo into having this thing not be card disadvantage as long as its use is timed properly. Delay makes Suspend cards, and Teferi kills Suspend cards, so if you wait until the Delayed spell has one suspend counter left and drop Teferi in on the end step, there’s practically nothing the opponent can do (short of something on-table like Seal of Fire or Necrotic Sliver) to stop the spell from being countered. However, most of the time I would expect this to be card disadvantage and therefore not worth playing.

Slaughter Pact seems like a solid Mystical Teachings target. I can use it to kill a 3/3 from Gruul right away, before it gets so much as one more attack in, and won’t have to pay for it until next turn. I assume a big part of Dralnu’s decline recently has been thanks to Gruul’s rise, so I think this card will be maindeck-worthy over Sudden Death despite the fact that Death is more valuable in the mirror. For what it’s worth, Pact is also probably a lot better against Dragonstorm and Izzetron.

Mystic Speculation is… wait, it’s a Sorcery? Never mind.

Logic Knot: wow. So much potential here! Most of the time, I would expect this card to be Counterspell with the Serra Avenger ability. True, it can be cast turn 3 if the opponent is tapped out and you Remanded something turn 2, but Dralnu doesn’t have any turn 1 plays that would permit it to be used on turn 2. Unless you cast it twice -because it was Remanded or because you drew two – it’s as much a hard counter as Circular Logic was back in the day. (Which is to say, pretty much always.) Though it sucks to get a Knot Remanded, it’s good against Spell Snare in a counter-war because its converted mana cost will never be two.

Sadly, I’m not even convinced that UU for a midgame hard counter is acceptable in every Dralnu list. Spell Snare and Rewind are more mana-efficient, and Remand cantrips. Do you have room for more counters? If so — for example, if you’re already playing Mana Leaks, Rune Snags, or Cancels — you should probably make room for two or three of these.

Tombstalker is the other Delve card that interests me. Especially if you’re not playing Logic Knot, it’s a fat 5/5 flying that you can main phase out with Rewind mana up in the late game. You can also just tap out to flop down a Dragon on turn 6, and see if the opponent can deal with it; some Gruul draws just can’t. I’d try out one of these in the maindeck over Skeletal Vampire, and see which is better. It might also be worth playing another one or two in the board, if the tap-out-for-fat strategy works out well enough against Gruul.

Nix – I guess this counters… what, like, Lotus Bloom? A Dragonstorm copy? Search for Tomorrow? None of these really get my motor running, so I don’t think I’d even want this card as a Mystical Teachings target. Same goes for Venser’s Diffusion: if I’m tutoring for a card that I want to cast on Dragonstorm’s turn, why would it be anything other than Shadow of Doubt?

Naming Instant on Cloud Key has a lot of potential in this deck. You’ve got 3-4 creatures, 2 Persecutes, and 2-3 Damnations… the rest of your spells are all Instants. I remember how good Nightscape Familiar was in the old Standard Psychatog decks, and those memories make me think this card worthy of Dralnu’s precious main-phase mana.

Epochrasite might even be better in this deck than it was in Izzetron. Check this math: turn 2 Epochrasite, chump with it immediately to save some damage, then play turn 4 Damnation and get it back as a 4/4 on turn 5. Nice math! I’m probably most excited about this card in Dralnu.

River of Tears – Not only is this an unreliable source of Black mana, you can’t possibly tap it on your opponent’s end step to flash back Mystical Teachings.

Final Verdict: Pact of Negation is an attractive one-of tutor target, and Tombstalker should be tried out in place of Skeletal Vampire — and possibly as a one- or two-of in the board. Logic Knot makes sense if your build is playing Mana Leak, Rune Snag, or Cancel already, but only if you had room for one of those counters previously. Cloud Key could make the deck a lot more efficient, and should be tried out. Epochrasite and Slaughter Pact seem like the most attractive new cards, as a one-of Teachings target and as a board option against fast aggro decks, respectively.

Dragonstorm

Contenders: Street Wraith, Tarox Bladewing, Riddle of Lightning, Pact of the Giant, Pact of Negation

Boy, those crickets are loud tonight. Unfortunately, Dragonstorm is such a tight list, I don’t see much room for many of the new cards.

Street Wraith looks sexy because he digs closer to a Dragonstorm for zero mana, but Mishra’s Bauble has offered option for awhile — along with an upped Storm count if need be — and no one has been biting.

The whole point of Hunted Dragon is that he can come across for the last few points when you drew a Hellkite or two and can’t deal twenty with a Dragonstorm. This is just as true for Tarox, except he only gets you there when the opponent has already dealt himself some damage. The upside is that you actually can hardcast him (potentially on turn 3 off a Seething Song) when you don’t have a Dragonstorm, which is what makes him worth investigating even though he’s less reliable as a redundant Hellkite — the whole purpose of Hunted Dragon — than the existing solution.

Riddle of Lightning and Pact of the Giant are both cute, but I can’t think of any matchups where I’d prefer them to one of the existing cards in DS.

Final Verdict: 4 Pact of Negation in the board. Tarox might be better than Hunted Dragon, but other than that, nothing looks exciting.

Gruul

Heartwood Storyteller, Epochrasite, Keldon Megaliths, Llanowar Reborn, Dryad Arbor, Horizon Canopy, Zoetic Cavern, Magus of the Moon, Pact of Negation (kidding!)

Heartwood Storyteller looks so good, doesn’t it? I have to admit, when I read this card, I think “Whenever a player decides to kill Heartwood Storyteller, draw a card.” However, that’s not quite fair. If he resolves against Dralnu or Izzetron (and you take care not to crash him into a Sulfur Elemental), you could net several cards as the control player digs for one of the few cards they play that answers him. Even still, it’s not the best plan to try and beat those decks by getting card advantage instead of simply putting on more aggression… so I might try him in the sideboard, but I wouldn’t expect much.

Epochrasite looks every bit as good against other Gruul decks here as it does in Dralnu. A two-mana chump blocker that turns into a free, recurring 4/4 in the midgame? Deal.

Keldon Megaliths and Llanowar Reborn come into play tapped, which is unacceptable for the unspectacular abilities they provide. Dryad Arbor has virtually the same downside, and would be almost playable if not for the fact that it got swept away by every Damnation, Pyroclasm, and Electrolyze that passed through.

Because they come in untapped, Horizon Canopy and Zoetic Cavern actually show some potential. The Canopy deals you damage, but who races you except the mirror? A bigger concern for me is that it’s not a Forest for Kird Ape, but it would be dangerous to play more than two copies of this card anyway because the mirror match is becoming more and more prevalent. I would definitely try out one copy in the main, over a Forest. As for Zoetic Cavern, a 2/2 is trumped by so many cards in the mirror, against Solar Flare, and Dragonstorm, I don’t see its upside outweighing its downside except against Dralnu and Izzetron (which you presumably beat already).

At face value, Magus of the Moon seems like everything Gruul has ever wanted. Blood Moon that you can play in the maindeck? Who cares if it dies — how can they Damnation this guy away when their Watery Graves tap for Red? The problem, as I see it, is that in the context of the current environment, this guy will mainly make your Dralnu and Izzetron matchups better and your game against Dragonstorm and the mirror worse because he’s an irrelevant Gray Ogre. To be fair, he would probably be nuts against Solar Flare, but the fact that he makes Dragonstorm and Gruul worse makes me shy away from maindecking him. He might be a better post-board option than regular Blood Moon, though, for what it’s worth.

Final Verdict: Heartwood Storyteller seems unspectacular, but might be worth it. Epochrasite looks amazing for the board, Horizon Canopy seems worthy of a maindeck slot or two, and Magus of the Moon might just be better than regular Blood Moon in the board.

My Top 10 most influential Future Sight cards for Dragonstorm, Gruul, Izzetron, Solar Flare, and Dralnu and are as follows. (As always, I’m presenting these as a point of interest only, and have no interest whatsoever in arguing the specific ordering of these in the forums.)

1 — Pact of Negation
2 — Epochrasite
3 — Take Possession
4 — Magus of the Moon
5 — Horizon Canopy
6 — Cloud Key
7 — Slaughter Pact
8 — New Benalia
9 — Heartwood Storyteller
10 — Tombstalker

Have a good week!

Richard Feldman
Team :S
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