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SCG Talent Search – Lapse of Certainty: Challenging Conventional Wisdom

Tuesday, November 2nd – Limited is full of conventional wisdom and guidelines that are universally accepted. Well, Kaloyan Kirilov feels there’s more to it than that. Enjoy his second article for the SCG Talent Search!

One day, when I’ve earned the right to write my own weekly column, I’d like it to be named “Lapse of Certainty.” Ultimately the reason for this is that I’m one to challenge conventional wisdom (and evidently put it on top of its owner’s library).

We’ve all been taught how Limited should be approached just like Constructed is — having the right mindset and having the ends and means to conceptualize ideas into form. Still, I feel the existing explanations and theories are by and large vague at best about certain aspects of the required type of approach. So I’ll make it my goal to clarify and explain my position. I’m a firm believer in the fact that a factually correct statement should be easy to defend, so instead of spending a couple of thousand words proving my point, I’ll rather make a short summary and then provide practical examples.

Conventional theory #1

Limited is about creatures / removal / card advantage / drafting color or color-combination X / avoiding color or color-combination Y.


Status:


Universally accepted, with some notable exceptions varying across different formats.


My view on this:


Limited is about players interacting with one another, but based on resource scarcity, the battlefront on which players usually meet is creatures and creature removal. Keyword here is “usually.” As in “exceptions are likely to occur.”

Practical example 1

I opened a Sealed pool with double Howling Mine, a Traumatize, and some copies of Tome Scour in a small local M10 Sealed event. My card pool wasn’t up to scratch with your average card pool. I decided to experiment and played my Fog, my Unsummon, my Wall of Frost, my Cudgel Troll, and my Wurm’s Tooth. I splashed my Lightning Bolt and my Fireball (off my Rootbound Crag) and my double copies of Bountiful Harvest. I didn’t do very well in that event (my final record was 3-2).

I had fun playing, but most importantly, I was able to win matches against decks with lots of removal that I wouldn’t have been able to beat otherwise. Making their removal dead or making them play it at inopportune times gave me quite an advantage. Conversely, I think I should’ve been able to make a switch to being a bad creature deck in order to beat some of the aggressive decks I lost to. Maybe I could’ve gone 4-1 with the switch, which is far more than any other approach would bring me with this pool.

Practical example 2

A 5/3 green trampler for five was considered to be essentially unplayable in the Rise of the Eldrazi format. By the end of the ROE season, anybody could tell you that much. Patrick Chapin compared playing this guy to playing with Giant Growth when you could play Ancestral Recall.

Soon after this, I started winning a
lot

with this exact guy (Stomper Cub), which I previously had no love for. Why? Simple enough — cards such as this one would go
really

late. I’m talking “pick 13” late. I’m talking “Chimney Imp” and “Kraken’s Eye” late. In combination with other cards in the format that were aggressively costed, this was quite the little beater. Sure, levelers and big Eldrazi were nice, and they were winning, and I’ve had my fair share of winning with those. But cost-efficient creatures were also an archetype in and of themselves, and you could be getting good cards for your archetype late.

Start with the 1/1 Goblin for one. Curve into a Bear, and put the Boar Umbra on it. Play Forked Bolt on one of those two Eldrazi Spawn tokens and on the Dread Drone. Now that the Ulamog’s Crusher is in play, steal it with Traitorous Instinct, all the while beating down with the 5/3 trample guy that no one else wanted and that you took pick 12.

This can only work out when everyone else agrees to the conventional rules, but it
is

working out. If you don’t trust me on this — remember Brad Nelson saying how bad green was in M11? Because everyone thinks that now, he’s actively looking to be G/X, because then he’ll be able to get all the good green cards.

Utility

Truth be told, being open to try a nonconventional approach in Limited is a mindset (and with practice could transition into a skill) that will mostly warm the bench throughout the season. The one time it comes into play, however, it’s a spectacular thing to watch. A nonconventional Limited approach won a Pro Tour (Hi, Jacob van Lunen and Chris Lachmann), won a Day 2 Grand Prix draft in Gothenburg (I mean — the guy
did

have four Traumatizes in his 3-0 deck), and won me personally many Rise of the Eldrazi packs on MTGO. To paraphrase Jonathan Swift: “He was a bold man who first played Giant Oyster.”

Conclusions

A 3-2 record in a five-round Sealed Deck tournament isn’t something to write home about, and I could easily chalk this off as “I had bad cards.” But my pool had this potential to do something different compared to other Sealed pools, and by the end of the tournament at least a couple of people hated Bountiful Harvest with unmatched passion. The same thing happened when I kept winning Rise of Eldrazi booster drafts with U/W control decks (almost no levelers but multiple enchantments and some counters and flyers). Willingness to escape the preconceived notion that it’s “all about doing X” made me attempt something new. I could make a bad, regular deck, but I decided against it. I had an option, and I had to try it out.

Conventional theory #2

Only X (where X could be card advantage, tempo, card quality) matters.


Status:


Universally accepted, but also universally misunderstood.


My view on this:


The most important property of Limited play is that it is — well —
limited.

While variety within a format does exist, games normally follow preset patterns. Most of the time in Limited — unlike in Constructed, where having a single copy of a card and tutoring for it can change the way that a matchup is being played — the games will follow their own logic. So what “matters” are cards that can change the pattern into a pattern in which you’re the one getting ahead or even winning instead of getting behind and even losing. A card cannot just be “generally good.” In order for a card to be good, this card has to have relevance. It has to matter.

Practical example 1

A creature stays in play and can attack multiple times. A creature will trade for another creature or will even kill a smaller creature or if it’s a creature with a special ability, it could kill a bigger creature. Or make the opponent discard a card. Anything, really. Then why do we generally value good removal over creatures?

To answer, let’s imagine the following situation — we are at eight life, and our opponent is at fourteen life. He has two 2/2 creatures with flying, and we have a 3/4 creature. We draw our card for the turn, and it’s a 4/5 creature for four mana and no other ability. A simple calculation shows us that we’re dead in two turns to the fliers unless we a) are able to deal with them, or b) kill the opponent before he kills us. The 4/5 creature for four mana isn’t relevant. It’s as though we’ve skipped our draw step because it wouldn’t help us win the game. Now only if it had the “reach” ability… But let us imagine that instead, we have drawn a Galvanic Blast. Surely the two-damage spell couldn’t be more relevant than the awesome big creature? Well, it could. At worst, it doubles the number of turns our opponent needs to take in order to win and will also give us the possibility to successfully race.

Practical example 2

We’re facing a board consisting of Ulamog’s Crusher, a Dread Drone, a Bloodthrone Vampire, and a 0/1 Eldrazi Spawn token. We have in play Wildheart Invoker, Kozilek’s Predator, five lands (no more lands in hand, too), and two 0/1 Eldrazi Spawn tokens. Our opponent is at ten life. We draw our card for the turn, and it’s a Staggershock. We do the math, and it turns out that after taking an attack from the Crusher, we can no longer win this game (even though we draw a Heat Ray a turn later). The Staggershock couldn’t have been any less relevant in this case, whereas a land would’ve allowed us to have a fighting chance to win this game.

Utility

So far this is all pretty basic. But now let’s try to apply this theory in the relevant context. Since every format is about different things, and every different archetype in this given format is also about different things, such variety requires us not to just have general knowledge, but some very specialized knowledge. Knowing how to make the bloodgraft (a draft combination of the bloodthirst and graft mechanics of the Gruul and Simic guild in Ravnica block) work doesn’t mean that one would automatically know how to draft mono-red in Zendikar-Zendikar-Worldwake. It’s as though you’ve graduated in computer science thirty years ago, taken a hiatus from your job, and then once you return (with your diploma and all), you figure out that computers are no longer the size of a room.

I’ve found this to actually be pretty relevant for Magic players (including myself). I didn’t understand the dynamics of M11. I couldn’t win a draft of M11 even if my life depended on it. I just couldn’t make it work. I thought I picked the best cards et al., but in fact I’m pretty sure I did nothing right. Probably because I was too influenced by my success in Zendikar and Rise of the Eldrazi.

There’s no such thing as “being generally good at Magic.” Sure enough, there are skills and methods of thinking that cross the border of formats, but ultimately you never say, “Man, I was so good at Standard four years ago — might as well not test for this Extended Grand Prix; I mean, how different could it be?” and then promptly try to champion your Dark Confidant with Mistbind Clique. Some people are generally good at understanding how Magic works, but when the context in a Limited format changes, cards like Forked Bolt (an all-star zero-pick in Zendikar) become barely playable in Rise of the Eldrazi.

This was further testified by Conley Woods, who, after losing a lot with his triple Volition Reins deck at Grand Prix Toronto, said that because everyone else was willing to play Vector Asp, his deck felt subpar at best.

Now try to imagine a deck with triple Mind Control in M11 being bad. It’s a bit hard, yes? But that’s why Magic is such a wonderful game — because things like this can happen within the right context.

Conclusions

Knowing where you stand within a format and knowing the direction in which other players are willing to go is the key to understanding “what matters,” to winning games, and to having fun. In a world of curves, you could be the one going in a straight line. And that can be good (3-0) or bad (0-3), but knowledge and understanding are the keys that open the lock.

Otherwise you’re just drafting some cards and playing some games and in the end — win or lose — you’re still as clueless as you were before. Exploring — now that is good. And fun. Explore your options in drafts that don’t matter so much. Try different things. Try different archetypes. Pick crappy rares, and try to make them work. Make that double Genesis Wave deck. You won’t lose many rating points (and even if you do, what do you care?). And even if you don’t get the trophy or the blue envelope or whatever it is that you’re trying to get, you’ll at least know that you’ve made the effort to do things right.

Be creative — embrace your inner Jonny (or even Timmy). When the big event comes, and you have to win, you won’t only win, you’ll also have fun. Trust me; I’ve been there. It feels much better.

I could just conclude my article right here and right now, and no one will blame me if I did. But I’ve been drafting Scars of Mirrodin on MTGO these couple of days, and I now have enough information about context that I feel confident sharing with you. Consider this as bonus content.

Focus

A focused deck is the optimal thing you could be aiming at, but it’s very hard to get a truly focused poison or a truly focused metalcraft deck. You’ll get one if you’re lucky, but sometimes you have to adapt mid-pack, and therefore my advice is: try to keep your options open for as long as you possibly can. Unless you get a very clear signal (like third-pick Plague Stinger), avoid committing very early.

As a rule of thumb I prefer to pick the strongest card in the pack without considering whether it’s metalcraft or poison-based and even without considering its color. After all, I know I can always splash this Arrest. Or I can play this Tangle Angler in my G/X metalcraft deck, and it would be quite decent (hint: he becomes insane in any deck with any sort of equipment or — Karn forbid — a Trigon of Rage).

Perceived color strength

People rank red and white the highest (red a little higher, I think), followed by black, green, and then the last place color is blue. Nice change from M11, to be sure. This has nothing to do with the actual strength of the colors, mind you, as I wouldn’t be passing an Argent Sphinx for a lower quality card just because it’s blue — and neither should you. Being in the underappreciated and least-favorite color or color combination has its advantages.

Of course this can and sometimes will backfire. Case in point: at Worlds last year, Gabriel Nassif was feeding me green. Or at least he was up to some point, and then he obviously switched to green himself. I didn’t see much green after that, but the color was deep enough to support both of us in pack 1. In packs 2 and 3 however, green wasn’t nearly deep enough. I got into blue, picked some nice blue rares but ultimately came short, because I bet on the wrong horse. The color was weak in Zendikar if you had to feed three players, and it could only work out well if two people were playing it.

Context

When you play Scars of Mirrodin Limited, creatures will trade a lot of the time. Most of the games will be red-zone grinds in which creatures will die left and right. Having anything to help you push creatures through, or having your creatures survive combat is crucial. Equipment comes to mind, but the following cards that help you win combat stalls are really effective.

In white:

Seize the Initiative is easily maindeckable. It helps your smaller creature to become bigger and you straight-up trade this card for the creature your opponent played, which usually costs more.

Soul Parry is a sideboard-quality card, but you should actively look to pick one if you’re in this color to counter Untamed Might shenanigans.

In blue:

Disperse serves a similar function to Soul Parry while also allowing you to win by turning metalcraft off in times of need. I wouldn’t be looking to play more than one, and it’s usually relegated to sideboard duty, but I’d look to pick one.

Twisted Image cycles and if your deck is not that great, you can just take it to thin your deck. It is also relevant if you are somehow having trouble beating an active Wall of Tanglecord with your flyers.

In black:

Instill Infection — in case you didn’t get the memo, this card is excellent. Not only in combat, but also outside of it. Choosing to go first and then playing this on turn 3 off of
your

mana Myr on
their

mana Myr feels like, and is in fact, a blowout.

Tainted Strike — in addition to everything else, this is the black Fog. You can play Tainted Strike on a regular creature. Instead of being dead, you now have gained some poison counters. Whatever.

In red:

Red is apparently not tricky. Kind of fits the color pie philosophy.

In green:

Asceticism — all your creatures are now Blight Mambas. Don’t pick this high, but it has its use, has seen play and will continue to see play.

Untamed Might — this is the Might of the Masses of this set. It sets up the kill while rewarding you for playing the format correctly. (You have lots of mana, but nothing better to do with it — might as well win the game, right?)

Tel-Jilad Defiance — this card is so good that I’ll look to maindeck one and probably sideboard a second. Everyone has got some artifacts, and this cheap “unequip,” “protection from Trigons,” etc. with the cantrip clause has proved to be one of the best tricks there is for a measly two mana.

Withstand Death — this is only maindeck material in infect decks and only if you don’t have Untamed Might and/or Tel-Jilad Defiance.

And of course we mentioned equipment. Accorder’s Shield is filthy if you put it on a Goblin Gaveleer, and Strider Harness has been catching players off guard since it first saw print.

Context (continued)

One of the archetypes (infect) wins mostly by playing cheap guys with infect in the first several turns and then finishing off with Untamed Might on an unblocked creature. The infect deck could also cut into your resources by trading guys with the infect ability and then recurring them with Corpse Cur. You deal with the first line of attack by having an adequate number of cheap guys (preferably with first strike or high toughness in your deck) or an adequate number of cheap removal spells (preferably killing two creatures, but they can’t all be Arc Trail, I know). You combat the second line of attack by having creatures with first strike (so that they don’t trade), having a faster clock (in my experience their clock tends to be faster, as they only have to deal you ten), or having black Spellbombs in your maindeck or sideboard. When you keep a hand in this format (or when you’re building a deck), ask yourself the following questions:

  1. What are my odds of meaningfully interacting with a 1/1 flier?
  2. What are my odds of meaningfully interacting with a 3/1 regenerating guy with infect? (In case you’re wondering — Blight Mamba with a Darksteel Axe.)
  3. What are my odds of quickly winning a game in which I’ve spent the first four or five turns trading creatures? (Because you already have six poison counters and cannot let them have that Throne of Geth and/or Contagion Clasp going for a long time.)

Rares:

In Rise of the Eldrazi, you
really

wanted to open Drana, Kalastria Bloodchief. Period. If you could open two of those, you’d happily forgo all of your other rares and/or mythics. What are the rares/mythics that you should be looking to open in this format?

White:

Elspeth Tirel — as far as planeswalkers go, she’s one of the best. You’ll only make guys with her, however. If you can protect her to use her ultimate, then odds are that you don’t want to be resetting the board. But even when making six 1/1 soldiers, she’s pretty much off the charts.

Kemba, Kha Regent — decent for its cost even without equipment. Therefore you shouldn’t play bad cards like Echo Circlet just because you’re playing her.

Sunblast Angel — because just a one-sided Wrath of God wouldn’t be enough, it had to come with a 4/5 flier package. Nice benefit plan.

Blue:

Argent Sphinx — this is a good win condition and is nearly impossible to get rid of. Being effectively immune to infect is a huge plus.

Grand Architect — First off, the body is quite reasonable. Second off, this makes ridiculous amounts of mana. Yesterday Paanica on MTGO started activating Tower of Calamities on turn 5 against me. Yikes! And then it’s a conditional and a slightly mana-intensive anthem effect, but it’s still an anthem effect.

Black:

Carnifex Demon — this is the Drana of the set. ‘Nuff said.

Hand of the Praetors — this is fine and all, but beware: if you don’t have enough creatures with poison, this card is a trap (not in the way Zendikar traps work, but you see what I did there).

Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon — a pretty decent chum; of course best in infect just because it’s a hasty four poison counters.

Red:

Hoard-Smelter Dragon — Wait, I was wrong.
This

is the Drana of the set.

Koth of the Hammer — 1. Pair Koth of the Hammer with Contagion Clasp. 2. Proliferate. 3. Profiterate.

Spikeshot Elder — Looking at this guy, I can’t believe that Spikeshot Goblin was common. Like Spikeshot Goblin, he’s good even without support. With support he gets bonkers.

Green:

My sympathy goes out to you if you opened green rares.

Multicolored & Artifacts:

Venser, the Sojourner — Sometimes he’s a glorified Glimmerpoint Stag (still good). Other times, he’s a beating.

Chimeric Mass — a really good card that you should just play in every deck, period. Don’t be afraid to cast it for one, if you need it.

Contagion Engine — Win the game, then win the game again.

Mimic Vat — Please set it up with a Replica or a Skinrender.

Molten-Tail Masticore — No comment.

Myr Battlesphere & Precursor Golem — both these cards are good to get you to metalcraft status on their own. Both are insane if you can bounce or blink them somehow. Precursor Golem also makes for fun games. Once I cycled an Instill Infection for three cards at end of turn. My opponent was like — yeah, okay. Then I played Flesh Allergy

Sword of Body and Mind — A game-ending equipment that’s never a dead draw and never irrelevant.

Steel Hellkite & Wurmcoil Engine — While I’ve seen people beating those, you still want to have them as your default turn 5 or turn 6 play.

The important/interesting part is that most of these rares are colorless artifacts. This is one of the reasons for us to play Shatter, Revoke Existence, and Slice in Twain maindeck in Sealed (and in Draft, of course, but even more in Sealed, and we should also look to splash those).

Well, that’s that for this week. I’m now way off the 3000-word limit, but I’m risking Wrath of Editors (that’s an actual card, by the way) in order to provide better content to you guys. Until next time!