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Positive EV – Discussing Shards Reloaded #3: Three-Color Archetypes

Read Manuel Bucher every week... at StarCityGames.com!
Wednesday, July 8th – Manuel Bucher and Olivier Ruel continue their excellent examination of Shards of Alara draft. Today’s conversations revolve around the classic Shards three-color archetypes: Esper, Grixis, Naya, and Jund. And Bant, although the archetype receives little love…

Manu: Welcome again to a Top 15 common/uncommon evaluation of Alara Reborn. This time we’ve actually drafted a lot, and thus we can give you more informed advice. Not only will we talk about our current Top 15, we’ll also see the difference between now and when the set was released!
Oli: Hello everyone! Hey Manu! How was your weekend?
Manu: It was pretty good; I got together with several people I haven’t seen in a while. What about your weekend?
Oli: Pretty good!

Esper

Oli:

(Behemoth Sledge)
1 – Esper Stormblade
2 – Ethersworn Shieldmage
3 – Bant Sureblade
4 – Crystallization
5 – Thopter Foundry
6 – Slave of Bolas
7 — Ethercaste Knight
8 – Glassdust Hulk
9 – Messenger Falcon
10 – Mistvein Borderpost
11 – Fieldmist Borderpost
12 – Wall of Denial
13 – Arsenal Thresher
14 – Deny Reality
15 – Ardent Plea

Manu:

(Behemoth Sledge)
1 – Esper Stormblade
2 – Bant Sureblade
3 – Deny Reality
4 – Crystallization
5 – Thopter Foundry
6 – Mistvein Borderpost
7 – Fieldmist Borderpost
8 – Ethersworn Shieldmage
9 – Slave of Bolas
10 – Ethercaste Knight
11 – Messenger Falcon
12 – Glassdusk Hulk
13 – Grixis Grimblade
14 – Soul Manipulation
15 – Arsenal Thresher

Manu: So, your number one from last time, Soul Manipulation, is surprisingly not on the list anymore, what changed?
Oli: When I first saw the card, I thought “Exclude back.” As that’s one of the best commons I’ve ever played in draft, I immediately put it in the first place. Now that I have drafted Esper a lot, I realize that the land cycler guys are not so good, and also that I almost always draft that archetype based on UW. This is also the reason why I have a card like Deny Reality so low in my rating. Even though it fits this tempo-based archetype perfectly, tempo cards are not something I like to use as a splash.
Manu: I have to admit I draft both UW and UB far more than Esper. But Deny Reality and Thopter Foundry are the cards that have impressed me the most since the set was released. More often than not I just prefer the effect of Deny Reality over the effect of Slave of Bolas.
Oli: If you consider the raw power of the cards in the archetype, Deny Reality is better than Slave of Bolas, but I still have the removal spell higher. A card I splash must be a card that will do something anytime I draw the land to cast it. As a turn 5 or 6 play, Deny Reality is a better card, but at any other moment of the game I like Slave of Bolas more.
Manu: I don’t think I like Slave of Bolas more, even later on in the game.
Oli: Well, it’s a matter of experience, I guess. I’ve always seen the card as great, but I’ve only played/faced it about 10 times… maybe I overrate the card a little.
Manu: For me, the card was always “only” a removal spell (that could never catch the Sprouting Thrinax), while Deny Reality can win games.
Oli: Well, in an aggro deck, which most of my Esper deck are, if you draw well, the card almost always wins. There are two major differences in our ratings. First, I consider this deck as UW splash Black, while you seem to see the deck as three-color. Secondly, there’s Ethersworn Shieldmage.
Manu: For me, the U/W-based Esper deck falls into the UW category. Even though you splash Black there, it is not more than two or three cards. The same counts for the UB splashing for White. Esper is Esper for me right now. And for Ethersworn Shieldmage… yes, I think the card is very good. Maybe I underrate the card, and it should switch in the rating with Crystallization, but I just think all the cards in the Top 9 are very good.
Oli: An Esper deck is not necessarily UW dominant, but it still is for me, at least most of the time. When I draft UW, I usually don’t splash, while I usually have 4 to 7 Black cards in Esper. In the end, both ratings may look similar, but the archetype is more controlling. I think Shieldmage is fantastic; the only reason why I have it in second place is because the first spot happens to be occupied by a two mana 3/2 flyer. I actually think it’s really one level above Bant Sureblade or Crystallization.
Manu: Wow, one level over Bant Sureblade! I see that card almost as high as the Stormblade. I guess I have to pick the card higher in my next few drafts to see what changes. I knew the card was good, but I did have doubts about it being fantastic.
Oli: I absolutely agree. Shall we move on Grixis?
Manu: Yep. Even though our ratings were not super-similar, most of the major differences concerned how an Esper deck looks, Deny Reality, and Ethersworn Shieldmage.

Grixis

Oli:

1 – Bituminous Blast
2 – Terminate
3 – Slave of Bolas
4 – Sangrite Backlash
5 – Kathari Remnant
6 – Grixis Grimblade
7 – Giant Ambush Beetle
8 – Soul Manipulation
9 – Esper Stormblade
10 – Deny Reality
11 – Veinfire Borderpost
12 – Mistvein Borderpost
13 – Kathari Bomber
14 – Architects of Will
15 – Skyclaw Thrash

Manu:

1 – Bituminous Blast
2 – Esper Stormblade
3 – Terminate
4 – Grixis Grimblade
5 – Deny Reality
6 – Slave of Bolas
7 – Mistvein Borderpost
8 – Veinfire Borderpost
9 – Giant Ambush Beetle
10 – Sangrite Backlash
11 – Kathari Remnant
12 – Kathari Bomber
13 – Sewn-Eye Drake
14 – Skyclaw Thrash
15 – Soul Manipulation

Manu: I’m guilty for loving the Blades (not too much love for Hackblade and Hushblade though, heh).
Oli: To me, a Grixis deck is control, while it seems to be more aggro-tempo to you. As a result, our Top 15 lists are very different. For instance, as a blocker, I like Grixis Stormblade as much as Esper Stormblade, but I have it higher because it’s easier to cast.
Manu: Even though Grixis is one of the more controlling decks I draft, it just seems like that most of my opponents don’t really draft aggressive decks, which leads to me ending up as the aggressor anyway. But yes, that seems to be one of our major differences. Another thing that we didn’t talk about in Esper: I seem to rate the Borderposts higher than you do in general. Do you try to get the entire mana fix suite before the third pack?
Oli: Kathari Remnant and Soul Manipulation, for instance, are excellent if you’re control, but not so good otherwise. Well, in Grixis I usually play Cascade spells, and Jhessian Zombie and Igneous Pouncer are just as good if I can get Soul Manipulation. I actually like them more in Esper where they support the Blades and Thresher. They pump Blades in any deck, obviously, but I pick them much higher in the artifact archetype. The reason why they have pretty much the same rating anyway is because Esper cards just seem stronger to me.
Manu: Besides Bituminous Blast, they seem stronger for me as well. Still, in any deck I draft I try to get as many Blades as I can, so that’s probably the reason why I have the Borderposts higher than you do. I have to admit, when I first made the ratings, I had Grixis Grimblade over Terminate, and I admit that I wouldn’t pick Terminate over the Grimblade in every draft.
Oli: Wow! How is that? I sure love the Blades, but we’re not talking about any removal here… it’s Terminate!
Manu: It is very hard to explain, but I’ve drafted the Grimblade five times more often than Terminate – I just don’t like removal as much in this format, while I did in previous ones.
Oli: Okay, shall we move on Jund?
Manu: Yeah.

Jund

Oli:

1 – Bituminous Blast
2 – Bloodbraid Elf
(Behemoth Sledge)
3 – Putrid Leech
4 – Vengeful Rebirth
5 – Terminate
6 – Slave of Bolas
7 – Jund Hackblade
8 – Veinfire Borderpost
9 – Firewild Borderpost
10 – Giant Ambush Beetle
11 – Marisi’s Twinclaws
12 – Sangrite Backlash
13 – Rhox Brute
14 – Deadshot Minotaur
15 – Vithian Renegades

Manu:

1 – Bituminous Blast
(Behemoth Sledge)
2 – Bloodbraid Elf
3 – Putrid Leech
4 – Terminate
5 – Vengeful Rebirth
6 – Vithian Renegades
7 – Slave of Bolas
8 – Marisi’s Twinclaws
9 – Rhox Brute
10 – Sangrite Backlash
11 – Firewild Borderpost
12 – Veinfire Borderpost
13 – Grixis Grimblade
14 – Giant Ambush Beetle
15 – Deadshot Minotaur

Manu: Well, our ratings are very close, but for once, your first Blade is higher than mine. What kind of deck is Jund for you?
Oli: I usually draft aggro-control and wait to see how pack 3 goes before making a decision. It usually depends on how many Leeches and Blades you can get in the early picks. If I get many, I’ll pick a card like Colossal Might a lot earlier. It was 16th in my rating, but if I’m definitely aggro it will be closer to 10th place. If I don’t get the best early drops, I’ll just focus on the midrange creatures (Twinclaws, Brute, Minotaur) and on the removal spells more.
Manu: I end up more in the more controlling archetype, which is why I didn’t include a card like Jund Hackblade in my list. And this is probably the reason why Marisi’s Twinclaws and Rhox Brute are slightly higher on my list than yours.
Oli: The reason why the archetype became one of my favorites with Conflux is that it has not only lots of good cards, but also most of the best commons and uncommons in Reborn.
Manu: Jund in Reborn is very deep indeed, but it actually needs it as the Conflux pack is a bit weak.
Oli: Yes, it’s true; pack 3 is as good as pack 2 is bad.
Manu: One last thing before moving to Naya: you don’t like Vithian Renegades too much, do you?
Oli: That is exactly what I was about to ask you about.
Manu: Well, I like it, so the question wouldn’t fit my rating!
Oli: I like the card, but I just don’t know how much. The card seems fantastic, but it has disappointed me a lot lately. Now, even though I think the card is good, I’d rather pick cards that are always good over it.
Manu: Maybe I still overrate the card a little, but it just provides you a fair amount of free wins. Casting it on turn 3 against a Borderpost is something from which your opponent probably won’t recover.
Oli: I just realized there is a card I should have put both in this rating and in Esper’s. And very highly. Behemoth Sledge. What do we do? Shall I change the rating, or should we just discuss it when we talk about Naya?
Manu: Well, what can I say? It is the best card in Alara Reborn, and you should splash for it if you can. And if you open this and Bituminous Blast in Jund, you should try to pick both of them.
Oli: I would probably have it first place in Esper and third in Jund… Maybe it’s better to correct our lists.
Manu: I would have it first place in Esper as well, probably second place in Jund. Let me add it in parentheses.

Naya

Oli:

1 – Behemoth Sledge
2 – Enlisted Wurm
3 – Bloodbraid Elf
4 – Qasali Pridemage
5 – Bant Sureblade
6 – Vengeful Rebirth
7 – Crystallization
8 – Marisi’s Twinclaws
9 – Naya Hushblade
10 – Messenger Falcon
11 – Firewild Borderpost
12 – Wildfield Borderpost
13 – Colossal Might
14 – Deadshot Minotaur
15 – Vithian Renegades

Manu:

1 – Behemoth Sledge
2 – Enlisted Wurm
3 – Qasali Pridemage
4 – Bant Sureblade
5 – Bloodbraid Elf
6 – Vengeful Rebirth
7 – Crystallization
8 – Marisi’s Twinclaws
9 – Messenger Falcon
10 – Gloryscale Viashino
11 – Firewild Borderpost
12 – Naya Hushblade
13 – Wildfield Borderpost
14 – Vithian Renegades
15 – Intimidation Bolt

Oli: I’m not sure about Gloryscale Viashino. It’s one of those cards that always seems much better when it’s on the other side of the board. I often have trouble casting it, and when I can, I usually don’t have gold cards anymore.
Manu: True – still, on turn 4 it is a beast, and not a Viashino Soldier. I don’t splash for the card on its own, but if I already have something like two mana fixers, I definitely pick high. Bloodbraid Elf in third place, even though you have trouble casting that one as well?
Oli: I don’t draft Naya much, but when I do I usually use a WG core. Therefore, indeed, Bloodbraid Elf is not much easier to cast than the 3/3 which didn’t even make it into my Top 15. However, Bloodbraid Elf is the fourth best non-rare card in the expansion (after Sledge, Blast, and slightly behind Wurm). I don’t think I’ve ever lost in Limited after casting the card on turn 4. I did beat it recently, but it was only because I had Bituminous Blast. Have I ever mentioned how much I despise the Cascade ability, by the way?
Manu: You, sir, are not the only one. I don’t draft the archetype often either, and if so it ends up being WGr. The third pack doesn’t add anything to the five-power theme, and the second pack doesn’t have much support for that either. That’s why it is very hard to end up in a Naya Deck (which has the theme “five-power” on the Naya rules card).
Oli: As our Top 15 as pretty similar, and as we seem to agree that the archetype is unadvised, shall me move onto Bant?
Manu: I would like to quote FlorianR from the forums here. “Is there actually a Bant archetype? Aren’t those decks just GW or UW aggro with splash for the third color?”
Oli: Precisely. White is the color with the most playables, so a second color is usually enough, and, if you need three, Esper is usually a better choice.
Manu: We agree with the quote. Most Bant decks are two colors splashing for the third. That is why we won’t post a rating on Bant, and include splashes in our WG and UW rating on Friday!
Oli: That’s all for now, have all a great week, and we’ll see you on Friday to conclude our ACR draft analysis. Good night Manu!
Manu: Good night! Thanks for reading!
Oli: Oh, by the way, I’m just starting a “Drafting With” draft… first pick Akrasan Squire, Fatesticher, or Drumhunter?
Manu: Akrasan Squire over Fatestitcher over Drumhunter
Oli: Agreed. Pick 2 is between Skeletonize, Knight of the Skyward Eye, Welkin Guide, and Drumhunter.
Manu: Hmm. Knight?
Oli: That’s what I’ve picked too; you’ll find the end of that draft in my next draft column!

Manu and Oli.