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Positive EV – Discussing Draft #5: Esper, Grixis, and Jund in Alara Reborn

Read Manuel Bucher every week... at StarCityGames.com!
Wednesday, May 13th – Over the last few weeks, Olivier Ruel and Manuel Bucher have provided us with a comprehensive ranking of the cards in Shards of Alara and Conflux, with regard to all the relevant draft archetypes. Today, they move onto the cards we’ve all been waiting for… Alara Reborn!

Welcome to another article in our Discussing Draft series. Today, we are going to talk about Esper, Grixis, and Jund in Alara Reborn. Sadly, Olivier and I haven’t managed to play an infinite number of ACR drafts thus far, so we might be wrong on some picks. That’s why this is a first analysis from us; we’ll write another once we have more experience, and discuss what has changed and why it did so. We are running this… let’s go!

ESPER

Manuel:

1 — Esper Stormblade
2 — Mistvein Borderpost
3 — Fieldmist Borderpost
4 — Soul Manipulation
5 — Grixis Grimblade
6 — Slave of Bolas
7 — Deny Reality
8 — Sewn-Eye Drake
9 — Kathari Remnant
10 — Architects of Will
11 — Crystallization
12 — Etherwrought Page
13 — Messenger Falcons
14 — Thopter Foundry
15 — Brainbite

Olivier:

1 – Soul Manipulation
2 – Deny Reality
3 – Crystallization
4 – Esper Stormblade
5 – Mistvein Borders
6 – Fieldmist Borders
7 – Glassdust Hulk
8 – Wall of Denial
9 – Slave of Bolas
10 – Kathari Remnant
11 – Messenger Falcons
12 – Ethersworn Shieldmage
13 – Talon Trooper
14 – Sewn-Eye Drake
15 – Architects of Will

Manu: Hey there, Olivier!
Oli: Manu! How are you today?
Manu: Excellent! The only things missing are a cup of tea and some Speculoos!
Oli: Okay, I’ll be right back. Maybe will you be kind enough to explain our readers what a Speculoos is while I’m getting the water to boil?
Manu: Sure, Speculoos is a biscuit you dip into your tea, for eating.
Oli: Back! So, where were we?
Manu: We are on Esper right now, and you seem to have switched to a three-color deck, while I am still 2.5!
Oli: The thing is, if I’m honest, I don’t know what an Esper deck should look like at the moment. One of the most interesting things in drafting is that, when a new expansion comes out, cards that were good in Limited aren’t necessarily good anymore. I definitely agree that in AAC the deck was supposed to be UBw. But now, I have the feeling there are just a lot of good UW cards in the last pack. I mean, there are obviously some good UB cards as well, but adding all the new UW cards to the always-late-picked Darklit Gargoyle and Court Homunculus, I’m wondering if there is not something new to do with the archetype.
Manu: So you have Soul Manipulation in first place. I fear that the format is too fast, and even though it’s an excellent card, I would pick Esper Stormblade over it. Most of the time it’s a two-mana 3/2 flier.
Oli: Yeah, it’s true that it looks very good, but in the best draft I’ve had in the format so far, I had Manipulation as a splash… and it was still great. As I’ve first picked it, I took two landcycler guys in Reborn. This way, it was either a turn 3 Exclude, or a great late-game spell. And even as a spell, it was really fantastic.
Manu: Yeah, it’s really good with the landcyclers… Still, I prefer playing Esper Stormblade on turn 2. That’s another reason I have the Borderpost so high. Not only do they power up your Blades, they also power up your Tidehollow Strix and Sedraxis Alchemist. Is Deny Reality so good that you can pick it over the Borderposts? I have to admit I don’t play with Deny Reality that often.
Oli: Maybe I overrate the card because I’ve played it mostly in five-color (in which it is, obviously, amazing). But the card gives you a wonderful tempo advantage. The question is to know how many mana artifacts and other cards you are running, as you don’t really want to Cascade into them. If it’s none or one, the card is great. With two, it’s good, and with three or more it’s simply fine. And as you don’t know exactly how many mana artifacts you’ll end up with early on Reborn, maybe it shouldn’t be such a high pick. Your rating is probably more accurate on that one.
Manu: Then we seem to have a big difference in opinion over the Sewn-Eye Drake. Isn’t it pretty much everything you want in the format? Evasion and tempo?
Oli: I guess it depends on how aggressive you are. In AAC, an UBw Esper deck would be more control than aggro… Do you think it has changed now? I mean, if you still play Control, or even Aggro/Control, it could be an excellent card, but it’s also a four-mana non-artifact and very vulnerable creature.
Manu: True. I’ve just had the best experiences with beatdown decks so far, so I might lean a little toward the aggressive side in every archetype. That’s also why I have Crystallization not that high… I want as few splashes as possible.
Oli: When your deck is aggressive it’s obviously worth, let’s say, between a sixth and eighth pick, but right now I’m not sure what the archetype should look like. This is also why I have a card such as Wall of Denial in my Top 15. If you’re playing the deck as White-based or Control, the card is amazing. Of course, if you’re UB aggro, it’s not even worth a splash.
Manu: Wouldn’t Etherwrought Page be an excellent card for a control deck though?
Oli: Maybe it would. And what does that card do exactly?
Manu: It’s the 1UWB artifact, from which you can choose one out of three modes every turn.
Oli: Haaaa! To be honest, I didn’t even consider that card. A card that’s a mix of Onyx Goblet (but two turns slower) and Honden of the Cleansing Fire (but three colors so probably not on playable on turn 4) is not very useful, particularly when it’s three colors (meaning you may have to splash it). Of course, the “filter the top card” ability may be a little more interesting, but I feel like it just takes too long to be really efficient.
Manu: But it’s very good with unearth!
Oli: In theory, it seems good with Unearth and Cascade. But it works only with instant Cascade spells, during your upkeep, and I’d rather draw my Unearth spell than put it in my graveyard if it’s not Grixis Slavedriver.
Manu: Well, it’s definitely a card I have to try more often. Maybe it’s really not worth it.

GRIXIS

Manuel:

1 — Bituminous Blast
2 — Terminate
3 — Sangrite Backlash
4 — Esper Stormblade
5 — Veinfire Borderpost
6 — Mistvein Borderpost
7 — Soul Manipulation
8 — Slave of Bolas
9 — Deny Reality
10 — Grixis Grimblade
11 — Kathari Remnant
12 — Kathari Bomber
13 — Sewn-Eye Drake
14 — Giant Ambush Beetle
15 — Jund Hackblade

Olivier:

1 – Bituminous Blast
2 – Terminate
3 – Soul Manipulation
4 – Slave of Bolas
5 – Sangrite Backlash
6 – Deny Reality
7 – Veinfire Borderpost
8 – Mistvein Borderpost
9 – Kathari Remnant
10 – Sewn-Eye Drake
11 – Jhessian Zombie
12 – Igneous Pouncer
13 – Esper Stormblade
14 – Grixis Grimblade
15 – Giant Ambush Beetle

Manu: What a surprise… Blast is your number one!
Oli: I had it ninth, but Antoine told me the card was fine.
Manu: Our first huge difference, once again: Esper Stormblade. I would pay four mana for such a card, as I did back in Ravnica.
Oli: I wouldn’t pay four… but three? Definitely. I mean, in an aggressive deck the card is unreal good, but isn’t Grixis the least aggressive archetype in the format, after five-color? The card is still good, obviously, and I probably underrate it, but removal simply seems better to me.
Manu: I am not sure I would pick the Backlash over it. I definitely seem to like aggro a lot in this format. No love for Kathari Bomber? Sadly, I’ve never had the card, but it seems pretty good to me
Oli: It was my 16th place. There were just too many cards I wanted to put in my Top 15. Once again, there are two overall questions that define the format and, therefore, our pick orders.
1) How aggressive is the format now?
2) If it is as aggressive as it seems to be, should we play two or three colors?
The thing is there are enough fixers to play three colors in the format (which is why I have the landcyclers in my Top 15), but if two-color aggro decks can develop fast and regularly enough, isn’t three colors just too much?
Manu: So far, I’ve had most success with two-color aggro decks. After that, I like five-color control decks. I am not sure about the Shard decks yet. You don’t have as much synergy anymore, as you did in AAA or AAC, so I’d rather have either the tempo or the full power.
Oli: Aggro definitely is tempo, but aren’t three-color decks or control decks more representative of the “full power” you’re talking about?
Manu: Five-color control decks are representing the full power.
Oli: And three-color decks are somewhere in between. Both as far as raw power and tempo are concerned.
Manu: Yes, and I don’t know how much I like that, now the synergy is missing.

JUND

Manuel:

1 — Bituminous Blast
2 — Bloodbraid Elf
3 — Terminate
4 — Vithian Renegades
5 — Deadshot Minotaur
6 — Sangrite Backlash
7 — Vengeful Rebirth
8 — Slave of Bolas
9 — Veinfire Borderpost
10 — Firewild Borderpost
11 — Jund Sojurners
12 — Marisi’s Twinclaws
13 — Rhox Brute
14 — Giant Ambush Beetle
15 — Putrid Leech

Olivier:

1 – Bituminous Blast
2 – Bloodbraid Elf
3 – Terminate
4 – Vengeful Rebirth
5 – Deadshot Minotaur
6 – Sangrite Backlash
7 – Slave of Bolas
8 – Marisi’s Twinclaws
9 – Rhox Brute
10 – Vithian Renegade
11 – Firewild Borderpost
12 – Veinfire Borderpost
13 – Jund Sojourner
14 – Putrid Leech
15 – Sewn-Eye Drake

Manu: So, we have the first three cards in common, then I have Vithian Renegades as number four. Do I overrate the card? It’s better than Terminate against any Esper deck, while killing a Borderpost or Obelisk on turn 3 can be crucial.
Oli: Against Esper, so probably for two decks at the table, the card is worth first or second place. Against the other decks, it may be much better than Uktabis usually are in Limited, but it is still not worth Top 15 to me, so 10th place seemed like a good compromise.
Manu: I just feel like every non-Jund and Naya deck has several artifacts. Cards like Esper Cormorants in Bant, or Esper Stormblade in Grixis.
Oli: Usually, against those, I’d like Deadshot Minotaur a bit better
Manu: But Deadshot Minotaur is much worse against Naya or five-color.
Oli: Against five-color control, definitely, but against Naya it is big and cyclable, so even though it won’t kill a possible Borderpost, it is still pretty good.
Manu: I didn’t say the card is bad… it’s still my number five.
Oli: I know that, and I don’t say I don’t underrate the 3/2… I only say I’d pick the 3/4 over it. I think what annoys me the most with this particular Top 15 is a pick we seem to agree on: the Jund Sojourners. Doesn’t the card deserve a higher spot? I mean, the typical start in the format is now a turn 2 gold 2/1 guy, isn’t it? If you play first you should be able to Zap a guy all the time.
Manu: Unless they have a Borderpost… I agree, the card seems to be very good, but the cards in the Top10 are slightly better in my opinion.
Oli: As I must confess, I forgot about the Borderposts… I think their rating is fine after all!
Manu: Another point on which we seem to disagree is the placement of the four-mana 4/4s. Do you think they are good enough in a Jund deck that you would pick them over the Borderposts?
Oli: Four mana seems really good to me. It’s not very common to find such cheap guys that don’t die to most removal spells. Also, the 2/4 Marisi’s Twinclaws is really hard to deal with by multiple blocking, and the pump spells (in particular Colossal Might) are amazing with it.
Manu: True… I guess I have to give them a bit more credit. Then, for once, you have the Sewn-Eye Drake in your Top 15. This time, the card is not even close to mine. I would pick Kathari Bomber, Gorger Wurm, and all the Blades over it.
Oli: It may indeed look surprising, as Jund has many more payables than the other archetypes. However, it is also the archetype in which the Drake seems to fit the best, as it is more aggressive than Grixis, for instance.
Manu: For me, Jund was always a bit more controlling, as it always was chunkier.
Oli: It is more of an aggro/control deck, but it still is a little more aggressive than Grixis to me.
Manu: Anything else to mention?
Oli: Nope, I think it was perfect.
Manu: Again, thanks for reading!
Oli: And we’ll see you on Friday for the end of our Reborn analysis!

Oli and Manu