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March Metagame Breakdown for Type I

Not since Fact or Fiction was unrestricted have we seen the hypothetical question”can control be too good?” But recently, Hulk has made us all think about it again. It’s certainly not to the point of”restrict something” yet, but many of the big names in the format agree that not only is Hulk the best deck, but it has no truly bad matchups. In fact, even its number of appearances underestimates it, since the majority of the nine showings were in the finals, with no other deck having more than two finals placements.

This month, data just magically appeared in my inbox. I have a whopping four tournaments from February that I slowly but surely heard about, thanks to Tournament Organizers finding out about my interest in data for high-attendance tournaments. I welcome this data, and hope it keeps arriving. Also, if organizers have DCI Reporter files that they could send in, Steve O'Connell a.k.a. Zherbus has asked for my help getting data together for a project. You’d be supercool to help out.


Another note about this month’s report is that there was a New Jersey tournament with forty players and a Black Lotus for a prize that I want to include, but despite contacting several people, don’t have the decklists for. Hopefully they’ll surface soon, because a Top 4 consisting of three Hulk Smash and one GAT supports the trends from the tournaments I do have.


2004-02-07 Denver (64 players)

1. BUGR Hulk Smash

2. URW Landstill

3. Keeper

4. Keeper

5. wMUD

6. EBA

7. Keeper

8. Secret Force


2004-02-21 Ontario (66 players)

1. Dragon

2. Workshop Vengeur (MS-DOS ORACLE sez:”Bad command or file name.”)

3. TnT

4. IsoKeeper

5. Sligh

6. Food Chain Goblins

7. UR Fish

8. Goblin Sligh


2004-02-28 Copenhagen (58 players)

1. TnT

2. BUG Hulk Smash

3. SuperGro

4. UR Landstill

5. UrPhid

6. Snake-Tongue

7. Ankh Sligh

8. AK Keeper


2004-02-29 Milan (134 players)

1. Hulk Smash

2. Stacker

3. Rector Tendrils

4. TPS

5. Rector Tendrils

6. Stax

7. UW Fish

8. Dragon


2004-03-07 Dulmen (98 players)(Missing #4 Madness list)

1. Charbelcher

2. Modular Genesis

3. Vengeur Masque

4. Madness

5. IsoKeeper

6. Mono-White Weenie (So Much Rage.)

7. MadDragon

8. Charbelcher


2004-03-07 Turin (57 players)

1. BUG Hulk Smash

2. Dragon

3. BUG Hulk Smash

4. TPS

5. RUG Madness

6. Food Chain Goblins

7. The Rock

8. BUG Hulk Smash


2004-03-14 Minneapolis (56 players)

1. Oshawa Stompy

2. Slavery (Workshop)

3. RG Beatz

4. MadDragon

5. RG Beatz

6. UR Fish

7. Terravore LD

8. Draw7.dec


2004-03-20 Newington (164 players)(Missing #8 FCG list)

1. Control Slavery

2. UG Fish

3. Hulk Smash

4. Control Slavery

5. Rector Trix

6. Food Chain Goblins

7. Dragon

8. Food Chain Goblins


2004-03-21 Massa (130 players)(Missing #1,4,8 lists)

1. Hulk Smash

2. Stacker

3. Hulk Smash

4. Affinity

5. Rector Tendrils

6. Keeper

7. SuperGro

8. Stax


Nine tournaments totaled (56,57,58,64,66,98,130,134,164 = 827; 93 average players)

9 Hulk Smash (1,1,1,1,2,3,3,3,8)

5 Keeper (3,4,6,7,8)

4 Dragon (1,2,7,8)

4 Rector (3,5,5,5)

4 Fish (2,6,7,7)

4 Food Chain Goblins (4,6,6,8)

2 TnT (1,3)

2 Stacker (2,2)

2 Control Slavery (1,4)

2 Vengeur Masque (2,3)

2 Landstill (2,4)

2 RG Beatz (3,5)

2 TPS (4,4)

2 Charbelcher (1,8)

2 IsoKeeper (4,5)

2 Madness (4,5)

2 SuperGro (3,7)

2 MadDragon (4,7)

2 Sligh (5,7)

2 Stax (6,8)

1 Oshawa Stompy (1)

1 Modular Genesis (2)

1 Workshop Slavery (2)

1 Affinity (4)

1 UrPhid (5)

1 wMUD (5)

1 EBA (6)

1 Snake-Tongue (6)

1 White Weenie (6)

1 Terravore LD (7)

1 The Rock (7)

1 Draw7.dec (8)

1 Goblin Sligh (8)

1 Secret Force (8)


15 aggro (2 TnT, 2 Stacker, 2 RG, 2 Mad., 2 Sligh, 1 Oshawa, 1 Mod., 1 Affin., 1 WW, 1 Gobbos)

13 combo (4 Dragon, 4 Rector, 2 TPS, 2 Charbelcher, 1 Draw7.dec)

12 control (5 Keeper, 2 Landstill, 2 IsoKeeper, 1 UrPhid, 1 EBA, 1 Terravore)

9 control-combo (9 Hulk Smash)

9 aggro-control (4 Fish, 2 SuperGro, 1 Snake-Tongue, 1 Rock, 1 Secret Force)

8 aggro-combo (4 FCG, 2 Vengeur, 2 MadDragon)

3 prison (2 Control Slavery, 2 Stax, 1 Workshop Slavery, 1 wMUD)


(1) Hulk ascendant

Not since Fact or Fiction was unrestricted have we seen the hypothetical question”can control be too good?” But recently, Hulk has made us all think about it again. It’s certainly not to the point of”restrict something” yet, but many of the big names in the format agree that not only is Hulk the best deck, but it has no truly bad matchups. In fact, even its number of appearances underestimates it, since the majority of the nine showings were in the finals, with no other deck having more than two finals placements. Definitely the deck to watch for the next few months.


(2) Incoherent like your mom’s 1337speak?

A seemingly inordinate spatter of decks appeared this month in the”non-Hulk” category. We have everything from Secret Force to a Modular deck to White Weenie (discussed below). In fact, the two highest-appearing decks are those which are most well adapted to dealing with a near-random metagame. The factors bringing about the incoherence are many, and part of it is naturally the incorporation of data from far and wide locales which haven’t yet formed a history of good players and good decks (some of the Ontario players themselves admitted they don’t know what to expect in the area). Of course, the Germans didn’t help when they held Dulmen on the same day as Regionals. I think that as global metagames pick up the hints about the best decks, we’ll see more focus in the coming weeks – note that the Hulk, Slavery, and FCG counts have been rising, not steady.


(3) Phil’s Watch List

Amusingly, Spoils of the Vault was finally played… as a one-of. Yeah, restricting that’s gonna do a ton of good. Mmhmm. (Well, maybe for Type 1.5, but I’m not qualified to know whether that’s really a good or bad idea.)


This time I finally am showing trend lines since I started collecting data, expressed in occurrences per Top 8.






































































































Card #


Card Name


2003


Jan


Feb


Mar


28


Yawgmoth’s Will*


2.8


2.8


+3.4


-3.1


92


Mana Drain*


7.7


+10.4


-8.5


+10.2


57


Cunning Wish*


4.8


+5.2


+7.4


-6.3


54


Chalice of the Void


9.6


-8.6


-6.6


-6.0


42


Mishra’s Workshop*


4.8


+7.8


-6.4


-4.7


36


Dark Ritual


8.2


-1.6


+5.6


-4.0


36


Bazaar of Baghdad*


6.8


-6.4


-4.0


4.0


31


Intuition*


4.5


-3.0


+3.2


+3.4


27


Psychatog*


1.1


+2.2


+3.8


-3.0


27


Elvish Spirit Guide


0


+1.6


-0


+3.0


15


Academy Rector


2.4


-0


+3.6


-1.7


7


Illusionary Mask


.8


-0


+.8


.8


2


Spoils of the Vault


0


0


0


+.2

* – Inferred increases from absent decklists (germane: 1 Madness, 1 Hulk, 1 Stax missing). I inferred 1 Yawgmoth’s Will, 4 Mana Drain, 3 Cunning Wish, 3 Psychatog, 4 Mishra’s Workshop, 4 Bazaar of Baghdad, and 2 Intuition.


No card increased all three times, with the opposite position occupied by only Chalice of the Void.


(4) Sweet mother of… someone played White Weenie!

I will just briefly quote my initial reaction from The Mana Drain when I saw that list. Bear in mind that I didn’t even notice it on the first reading – I assumed a decklist that short must automatically be a bunch of Goblins.


[…] You realize that in the total count for four months of decklists, there weren’t as many Plains as are fielded in that one deck, right? […] In fact, I believe that this is the final validation of quantum mechanics. Eventually, if one billion gajillion people try White Weenie in Type One, eventually one of them will successfully mise their way through seven rounds of Dulmen into the Top 8. I suppose it had to happen eventually. But I always assumed probability would protect me. Now, though, I’ll hang my head in shame and report to the world of SCG readers the terrible truth… […] Next week’s SCG headline:”Enlightened Tutor broken while searching for Crusade; calls for banning begun.” And of course, to make matters worse, there’s five teamwork enchantments. Which we all”know” to be terrible. I mean, how could something that encourages you into overcommitting be good? Apparently, we simply lacked the cajones to play such an amazing deck. Leonin Skyhunter, the day is yours. […]


March Card Totals

Total missing decklists: 1 Hulk, 1 Affinity, 1 Stax, 1 Madness, 1 FCG (+4 cards from Draw7.dec sideboard)


62 Mountain

59 Island

48 Forest

26 Plains

11 Swamp

3 Snow-Covered Forest

3 Snow-Covered Island



51 Black Lotus

48 Sol Ring

47 Ancestral Recall

47 Mox Sapphire

46 Mox Emerald

43 Mox Jet

41 Time Walk

39 Mox Ruby

38 Strip Mine

36 Demonic Tutor

34 Mox Pearl

27 Mana Crypt

27 Yawgmoth’s Will

26 Library of Alexandria

26 Mystical Tutor

25 Vampiric Tutor

18 Fact or Fiction

17 Lotus Petal

16 Mana Vault

16 Mind Twist

15 Memory Jar

15 Tolarian Academy

15 Wheel of Fortune

14 Balance

11 Timetwister

10 Tinker

9 Gush

9 Necropotence

8 Enlightened Tutor

8 Regrowth

7 Yawgmoth’s Bargain

5 Burning Wish

5 Windfall

4 Chrome Mox

4 Grim Monolith

3 Demonic Consultation

3 Frantic Search

3 Lion’s Eye Diamond

3 Mind’s Desire

3 Stroke of Genius

2 Channel

2 Entomb

2 Fastbond

2 Fork

2 Mox Diamond

1 Black Vise

1 Crop Rotation


164 Force of Will – As always.

116 Wasteland – highest land

114 Brainstorm

103 Underground Sea

88 Mana Drain

88 Polluted Delta

77 Red Elemental Blast – highest red

74 Flooded Strand

67 Tropical Island

65 Duress – highest black

65 Volcanic Island

62 Naturalize – highest green

59 Stifle

58 Tormod’s Crypt – highest artifact

54 Chalice of the Void

54 Cunning Wish

51 Wooded Foothills

48 Rack and Ruin

48 Swords to Plowshares – highest white

46 Taiga

44 Accumulated Knowledge

43 Goblin Welder

40 Mishra’s Factory

38 Blood Moon

38 Mishra’s Workshop

37 Tundra

36 Dark Ritual

35 Squee, Goblin Nabob

34 Blue Elemental Blast

34 Fire/Ice

33 Gorilla Shaman

32 Bazaar of Baghdad

30 Misdirection

29 Intuition

27 Elvish Spirit Guide

27 Pernicious Deed

27 Standstill

25 Gemstone Mine

25 Xantid Swarm

24 Psychatog

24 Survival of the Fittest

23 Coffin Purge

23 Null Rod

22 Animate Dead

22 Artifact Mutation

22 Lightning Bolt

21 Chain of Vapor

21 Meddling Mage

21 Tangle Wire

20 Juggernaut

20 Troll Ascetic

20 Worldgorger Dragon

19 Cabal Therapy

19 Ground Seal

19 Oxidize

18 Decree of Justice

18 Disenchant

18 Pyrostatic Pillar

17 Bayou

17 City of Brass

16 Basking Rootwalla

16 Curiosity

16 Goblin Piledriver

16 Metalworker

16 Wild Mongrel

16 Windswept Heath

15 Academy Rector

15 Cursed Scroll

15 Deep Analysis

15 Phyrexian Negator

15 Powder Keg

15 River Boa

15 Seal of Cleansing

15 Sphere of Resistance

14 Ancient Tomb

14 Birds of Paradise

14 Faerie Conclave

14 Hurkyl’s Recall

14 Tendrils of Agony

14 Triskelion

13 Skeletal Scrying

12 Arrogant Wurm

12 Chain Lightning

12 Cloud of Faeries

12 Damping Matrix

12 Daze

12 Food Chain

12 Goblin Lackey

12 Goblin Ringleader

12 Incinerate

12 Jackal Pup

12 Pyroblast

12 Root Maze

12 Smokestack

12 Spiketail Hatchling

12 Thirst for Knowledge

11 Chromatic Sphere

11 Flametongue Kavu

11 Goblin Warchief

11 Necromancy

10 Berserk

10 Bloodstained Mire

10 Price of Progress

10 Scrubland[/author]“][author name="Scrubland"]Scrubland[/author]

10 Trinisphere

9 Call of the Herd

9 Exalted Angel

9 Mindslaver

9 Savannah

9 Smother

9 Verdant Force

8 Goblin Cadets

8 Goblin Charbelcher

8 Goblin Matron

8 Goblin Recruiter

8 Grim Lavamancer

8 Land Grant

8 Llanowar Elves

8 Mogg Fanatic

8 Phyrexian Dreadnought

8 Pyrokinesis

8 Rushing River

8 Tinder Wall

7 Arcbound Crusher

7 Circle of Protection: Red

7 Illusionary Mask

7 Nevinyrral’s Disk

7 Opt

7 Quirion Dryad

7 Rebuild

7 Shattering Pulse

7 Werebear

6 Arcbound Ravager

6 Chill

6 Compulsion

6 Gempalm Incinerator

6 Geth’s Grimoire

6 Glimmervoid

6 Karn, Silver Golem

6 Mystic Enforcer

6 Siege-Gang Commander

6 Skirk Prospector

6 Su-Chi

5 Annul

5 Badlands

5 Dance of the Dead

5 Diabolic Edict

5 Ebony Charm

5 Future Sight

5 Lightning Greaves

5 Masticore

5 Maze of Ith

5 Merchant Scroll

5 Morphling

5 Orim’s Chant

5 Platinum Angel

5 Solemn Simulacrum

5 Sword of Fire and Ice

5 Teferi’s Response

5 Uktabi Orangutan

4 Aether Burst

4 Aether Vial – WTF of the Month

4 Ambassador Laquatus

4 Anger

4 Ankh of Mishra

4 Arcbound Worker

4 Barbarian Ring

4 Blurred Mongoose

4 Circular Logic

4 Counterspell

4 Diminishing Returns

4 Disciple of the Vault

4 Dismantling Blow

4 Flying Men

4 Fyndhorn Elves

4 Gaea’s Blessing

4 Goblin Grenade

4 Goblin Recruiter

4 Goblin Vandal

4 Grafted Skullcap

4 Hidden Gibbons

4 Hydroblast

4 Ice Storm

4 Kird Ape

4 Land Tax

4 Living Wish

4 Meltdown

4 Mind’s Eye

4 Mogg Flunkies

4 Mother of Runes

4 Mystic Snake

4 Natural Order

4 Oath of Druids

4 Ophidian

4 Pillage

4 Pyrite Spellbomb

4 Reckless Charge

4 Rootwater Thief

4 Savannah Lions

4 Scald

4 Scrabbling Claws

4 Sigil of Sleep

4 Silver Knight

4 Skullclamp

4 Slith Firewalker

4 Sphere of Law

4 Thermokarst

4 Urza’s Rage

4 Volrath’s Shapeshifter

4 Wall of Roots

4 White Knight

4 Worship

3 Aura of Silence

3 Back to Basics

3 Blistering Firecat

3 Careful Study

3 City of Traitors

3 Darksteel Colossus

3 Defense Grid

3 Duplicant

3 Earthquake

3 Echoing Decay

3 Energy Flux

3 Engineered Plague

3 Ensnaring Bridge

3 Firestorm

3 Genesis Chamber

3 Gilded Lotus

3 Glorious Anthem

3 Isochron Scepter

3 Karma

3 Karplusan Forest

3 Mana Leak

3 Meditate

3 Moat

3 Myr Moonvessel

3 Overload

3 Pentavus

3 Pyroclasm

3 Quirion Ranger

3 Ravenous Baloth

3 Rishadan Port

3 Roar of the Wurm

3 Serendib Efreet

3 Shadowmage Infiltrator

3 Spike Feeder

3 Sundering Titan

3 Suq’Ata Firewalker

3 Terravore

3 Terror

3 The Abyss

3 Treetop Village

3 Viridian Zealot

3 Voidmage Prodigy

2 Armageddon

2 Bone Shredder

2 Caltrops

2 Carpet of Flowers

2 Creeping Mold

2 Crusade

2 Deconstruct

2 Donate

2 Drop of Honey

2 Echoing Truth

2 Elvish Lyrist

2 Fireblast

2 Forgotten Ancient

2 Gamble

2 Gilded Drake

2 Goblin Sharpshooter

2 Hidden Guerrillas

2 Humility

2 Illusions of Grandeur

2 Jester’s Cap

2 Lava Dart

2 Leonin Skyhunter

2 Lifeforce

2 Light of Day

2 Magus of the Unseen

2 Mirari’s Wake

2 Mirri’s Guile

2 Moment’s Peace

2 Planar Void

2 Rancor

2 Rule of Law

2 Scavanger Folk

2 Skyshroud Elite

2 Sleight of Hand

2 Slice and Dice

2 Spike Weaver

2 Spoils of the Vault

2 Vindicate

2 Wonder

2 Zuran Orb

1 Arcane Laboratory

1 Aura Fracture

1 Circle of Protection: Black

1 Forge[/author]“]Darksteel [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]

1 Devout Witness

1 Divert

1 Druid Lyrist

1 Elf Replica

1 Goblin Tinkerer

1 Hibernation

1 Hull Breach

1 Hurricane

1 Jayemdae Tome

1 Kaervek’s Torch

1 Lim-Dul’s Vault

1 Panoptic Mirror

1 Phage the Untouchable

1 Phantom Nishoba

1 Pulverize

1 Reclaim

1 Sacred Ground

1 Scrivener

1 Shivan Hellkite

1 Silvos, Rogue Elemental

1 Sliver Queen

1 Starstorm

1 Sylvan Library

1 Sylvan Safekeeper

1 Tsabo’s Web

1 Underground River

1 Viashino Heretic

1 Voidmage Apprentice

1 Winter’s Grasp

1 Yavimaya Coast


I didn’t count it out, but it feels like the proportion of cards that only occurred once is lower this month. In the future I’ll probably look at the trend in an increasingly coherent, concentrated”playable cardpool.” Until then, there be Psychatogs off the port bow.


Philip Stanton

a.k.a.”Dr. Sylvan”

prstanto at uiuc.edu