“It’s like the old days, you know? It’s a format where you can brew almost any sort of a deck you want, kind of like Legacy. Then you show up and discover that most of your opponents don’t even have real decks. It’s a deckbuilder’s paradise, a world that seems to exist outside of the netdeck culture of today. We’ll see what a full-on PTQ season does to the format, but for now, Extended is a wild and dangerous new world to explore.”
The 2010 Magic World Championships have finally come to an end with Guillaume Matignon defeating Guillaume Wafo-Tapa of France in the finals of a pretty epic Top 8 that ends with Matignon tying Brad Nelson for Player of the Year. That means the Player of the Year will be decided in an unprecedented playoff at Pro Tour Paris in February.
It also means that we now have major tournament results of the PTQ season format to come! Pro Tour Amsterdam was just a few short months ago, but Scars of Mirrodin replacing Time Spiral block and Tenth Edition means that the format is only a cousin to the format we saw there. With Extended having no major real-world events in the current format yet, most players were at a loss about what the format should or would look like. This was all too obvious at the World Championships where we experienced a flashback to the old days, back when half of your opponents didn’t even have good decks.
While we saw this to a degree in Amsterdam (What can I say? So far, people haven’t been doing their homework in Extended… or maybe they just don’t have Magic Online to do it for them…), this experience is particularly pronounced in the Extended portion of Worlds this year. First, let’s take a look at some raw data:
|
Archetype |
% of Field |
Players |
% of 4-1-1 or better |
Success rate |
|
Jund |
15% |
48 |
9% |
8% |
|
Control |
13% |
45 |
19% |
18% |
|
10% |
33 |
14% |
18% |
|
|
Faeries |
10% |
30 |
12% |
17% |
|
GW Trap |
9% |
28 |
7% |
11% |
|
WW |
7% |
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Elves |
5% |
17 |
7% |
18% |
|
Merfolk |
5% |
17 |
2% |
6% |
|
4% |
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
|
Red Aggro |
4% |
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Doran |
2% |
7 |
2% |
14% |
|
Pyro Ascension |
2% |
7 |
2% |
14% |
|
2% |
7 |
2% |
14% |
|
|
2% |
7 |
7% |
43% |
|
|
Conscription |
2% |
5 |
2% |
20% |
|
1% |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
|
Ooze Combo |
1% |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
RUG Aggro |
1% |
3 |
2% |
33% |
|
Misc |
4% |
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Average |
5% |
17 |
5% |
14% |
This is a list of every major archetype, including:
Popularity- What percentage of the field played it and how many pilots?
Dominance- What percentage of players with top records (4-1-1 or better) played it?
Success- What percentage of players that played it had a record of 4-1-1 or better?
This chart takes the liberty of adding the three Grixis decks and one Esper Control deck to the forty-one Four-Color Control decks to form a new category “Control,” which is primarily the descendant of what people would’ve called Five-Color Control (though an increase in good duals and a slight decrease in actual Vivids has players no longer playing green). There also appears to be a spectrum between Wargate and Scapeshift, with Prismatic Omens bringing the whole archetype together. Most of these are on the Wargate side, which we’ll discuss below, but for reference, a couple R/G Scapeshifts have been included.
Extended taking place on the third day of a three-format event means there were a significantly higher number of draws than would normally take place, hence the slightly lower numbers of “top records” than you’d normally see. This shouldn’t skew the numbers much, though it’s interesting to note that both Wafo-Tapa and Paulo piloted Four-Color Control successfully but were able to draw their way into Top 8 rather than play out their matches, which might have contributed to even more success from the archetype.
Additionally, I have included the averages, so as to give one an idea of if a deck is “more popular than average” or “more successful than average.” Basically, any deck that gets played by more than 5% is popular (Jund, Control, Scapeshift, Faeries, G/W Trap, and White Weenie). Any deck that makes up more than 5% of the top winners is, at least to some degree, dominant (Same as popular, except Tempered Steel replaces White Weenie, as it appears to be the right White Weenie deck for the new format). Any deck that saw more than 14% of its pilots obtain records of 4-1-1 was, to some degree, successful (Control, Scapeshift, Faeries, Tempered Steel, Conscription, and RUG Aggro).
First, let’s look at the Tier 1. For the purposes of this discussion, I drew the line at what makes a Tier 1 deck as being both above average in terms of dominance and success. The reason why both are important is that it’s not useful to just go calling every rogue deck with one pilot a Tier 1 deck, just because a player did well and there were no other pilots to bring it down. Popularity isn’t important, because as we saw from Tempered Steel, a deck doesn’t have to be popular to be both dominant and successful.
Dominance alone isn’t enough, though, as it unfairly rewards popular decks. Look at Jund, for instance. Jund was the archetype that produced the fourth most winners. If all we cared about was quantity of winners, Jund would look good. Success reveals that Jund actually performed poorly, as it was the most popular deck, yet did not even obtain an average number of pilots with records of 4-1-1 or better.
Tier 1
Control
Scapeshift/Omens
Faeries
Elves
Tempered Steel
Worlds produced a very clear Tier 1 and no clear winner. Control, Scapeshift, Faeries, and Elves all saw remarkably similar success rates with Control’s being the most impressive. The more popular a deck, the more difficult it is for the deck to have a high success rate. To easily get a feel for this concept, picture a rogue deck played by just five players. If even one finishes 4-1-1 or better, it performed “above average.” However, if half the field played a deck, it would need not only twenty-two winning records, but those would have to be obtained despite the pilots playing against each other. To take this to an extreme, just imagine if everyone played the same deck. Now, what if 99% of people played the same deck? They can’t all finish 4-1-1 or better, and the more pilots a deck has, the harder it is to keep it up.
Tempered Steel is the big X-Factor. With only seven pilots, it wasn’t a popular archetype at all; however, three pilots of any deck with top records would be significant, so doing it with only seven pilots makes it far and away the most successful in terms of batting average. Such a small sample size makes our certainty about its strength somewhat lower, but this is somewhat balanced by the overwhelming success of the deck. The biggest strike against it is that it’s a very linear archetype that will suffer when the field is prepared. Additionally, it’s the exact type of deck that many PTQ players love to play, and it nicely replaces White Weenie in the metagame, ensuring a major rise in popularity that will make hating on it worth it.
Let’s take a look at the five Tier 1 decks, in order of popularity:
6-0 in Extended portion:
Creatures (5)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (26)
Spells (26)
Four colors is the new five, it would seem. The addition of incredible new duals like Scalding Tarn and Creeping Tar Pit have decreased the overall Vivid count, leaving most players without enough incentive to play green. The version most likely to be widely adopted is the one developed by yours truly, working with LSV, PV, Ochoa, and Wrapter (all of whom posted winning records with it, save PV who just drew into Top 8), among others. The other builds all vary in different ways; though it’s only our build that uses Preordain, whereas the other lists use more Vivids and more expensive spells outside of the Grixis list, which also features Preordain. Also of note, no Japanese player has ever used a Vivid Creek in the history of the Pro Tour.
Mystical Teachings is gone, replaced by Jace, the Mind Sculptor. This provides additional avenues to victory as well as just raw power. As a result, not even Mulldrifter tends to make the cut anymore; though Esper Charm is the primary reason to play white. The card draw is just awesome, but so is the ability to attack the opponent’s hand, proactively protecting Wurmcoil Engine, as well as destroying key enchantments like Prismatic Omen, Bitterblossom, and Pyromancer Ascension. Grixis is an option, but Esper Charm is just too good right now to pass up, in my opinion. Additionally, Runed Halo out of the sideboard is clutch, not to mention choice spot removal.
Esper isn’t likely to take off, as Lightning Bolt is just the best removal in the format, and Cruel Ultimatum is vital for actually putting away a game. Interestingly, the question of best victory condition is far from resolved. I tend to favor Wurmcoil Engine, as the life gain is so useful for locking up a game against aggro. Additionally, the durability of Wurmcoil Engine helps us tremendously against most decks with removal, like Jund. Other possible considerations include Grave Titan, Baneslayer Angel, Sunblast Angel, and Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker.
Four-Color Control utilizes the best removal spells, the best counterspells, and the best card drawers, then puts the game away with the best closers. This is the deck to beat. Weaknesses? People adapt to beat it, so it needs to evolve to stay on top of the game.
5-1 in Extended portion:
Lands (25)
Spells (35)
Masashi Oiso Wargate list is a fairly typical example; though it should be noted that some pilots actually play even fewer Scapeshifts, as that isn’t the primary combo. This deck revolves around getting a Prismatic Omen onto the table. Mana acceleration makes it easy to Wargate for Omen on turn 4, followed by a Scapeshift on turn 5 that deals as much as 72 damage. Even if you don’t have the Scapeshift, Wargate finding Omen makes your Valakuts into powerhouses, since now every land also Bolts something (and fetchlands Bolt twice!)
Additional Valakuts spiral things out of control, and if you already have Prismatic Omens, you can always Wargate up another Valakut. Jace, the Mind Sculptor and various creatures in the board give you other excellent possible Wargate targets, in the right scenarios. In general, though, most opponents will not be able to interact meaningfully with Prismatic Omen + Valakut and will quickly succumb to a barrage of uncounterable Bolts, if not an immediate Scapeshift. This is the early candidate for best combo deck and a big reason why Four-Color Control is correct, right now, instead of Grixis.
Some players use the Prismatic Omen + Valakut + Scapeshift interactions in an R/G ramp deck that almost resembles Standard, but that take on the strategy was not as successful, and I don’t recommend it. Without the library manipulation of Preordain and Wargate, it just isn’t consistent enough. That said, it’s easy to play and will surely see a following, especially among players that play a similar strategy in Standard.
Prismatic Omen is far from unbeatable, but it takes some effort. Still, it’s definitely a deck that can be targeted by hate, if you know to hate it out. Enchantment removal is, of course, a top-choice solution; although a dedicated land destruction deck like the Conley’s Necrotic Ooze deck hits from another angle. There are plenty of other angles to attack it from, such as Leonin Arbiter, but the transformational sideboard will prove most important in those sorts of scenarios.
6-0 in Extended portion:
Creatures (11)
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (25)
Spells (22)
What did Faeries gain from the rotation? Sure, Darkslick Shores, Wurmcoil Engine, Ratchet Bomb, and yes, even Wall of Tanglecord all help to make up for the loss of Ancestral Visions, but it’s the rotating of Grove of the Burnwillows that changed the whole game for Faeries. Tectonic Edges, Spreading Seas, and Extirpates were just not enough, as Faeries just couldn’t get over the hump of Punishing Fire. Now, with its greatest enemy abolished, Faeries gets to play a “fair” game against the format, but without Ancestral Visions, Faeries has slipped even further into Bitterblossom-or-no territory. Jace, the Mind Sculptor helps, but this is definitely a deck that’s going to require a lot of mulligans (but it mulligans very well).
Of note about Randle’s list, we see that he has five discard spells maindeck in addition to the Vendilion Cliques. This makes his list particularly disruptive against combo decks. Six spot removal spells isn’t uncommon, but it’s interesting to see the emphasis being placed on Disfigure in order to speed the deck up the most. With so many one-mana plays, Randle’s list is generally going to be a beat faster than old Faeries lists; though he is prone to run out of gas more often.
Ratchet Bomb solves lots of problems out of the sideboard and will be basically universally adopted by Faeries players. Wurmcoil Engine may surprise some people, but it makes perfect sense. Without Umezawa’s Jitte to serve as a life-gain mechanism, Red matchups can be quite challenging. Wurmcoil, especially backed by cards like Glen Elendra can totally win a game on its own.
Speaking of the sideboard, it should be noted that one of Faeries’ greatest strengths is its sideboard. It is the perfect example of a deck that improves its percentages against almost everyone after boarding. It would’ve been interesting to see how the Top 8 would have played out with best three out of five rounds, if Extended would have been the format.
Wall of Tanglecord is more new technology that will seem janky to many but is actually quite clever. Most people see the green mana symbol and assume that Wall of Tanglecord is a “green” card, but remember when they designed the card, it initially didn’t even have that ability, which was added later in development. Yes, Randle can’t block fliers with his Wall of Tanglecord, but blocking fliers isn’t what it’s for. Without Extirpate, what can Randle do about Vengevine? The Wall is a proactive solution that provides much appreciated defense against Sprouting Thrinax, Bloodbraid Elf, Koth of the Hammer, and… Great Sable Stag!
That’s right; the genetically engineered Faerie-Slayer is back and in a big way. Green is a very popular color at the moment, and the disappearance of Punishing Fire means Volcanic Fallout and Great Sable Stag are more needed than ever. Consequently, Faeries needs to combat them. The extra discard spells help take the sting out of Volcanic Fallout, and Walls plus Wurmcoils crash any potential Stag parties.
Faeries is certainly a force to be reckoned with, as it is highly adaptable, highly disruptive, and difficult to play against. That said, it doesn’t have the sort of advantage or raw power that it used to, and if people aim their hate at it, it suffers. Like we saw back in 2009, Faeries is likely to ebb and flow in popularity, as it will win most when people think it’s weak, and it will seem to fail when the format gets too hostile. One thing I can tell you is that despite Randle’s success, I think it’s crazy to play only three Cryptic Commands in Faeries!
5-1 in the Extended portion:
Creatures (34)
- 4 Llanowar Elves
- 1 Shriekmaw
- 4 Heritage Druid
- 2 Devoted Druid
- 4 Nettle Sentinel
- 3 Regal Force
- 3 Ranger of Eos
- 4 Elvish Archdruid
- 1 Joraga Warcaller
- 4 Joraga Treespeaker
- 4 Fauna Shaman
Lands (19)
Spells (7)
Sideboard
Elf combo is back, once again, and as long as Heritage Druid and Nettle Sentinel are legal, I think we’ll continue to see this strategy in some quantity. These days, however, there isn’t much combo left, as you are starting to look more and more like a token deck mixed with the old Elves beatdown decks from Standard 2008. Elfgren’s version continues to splash white for Ranger of Eos and even adds a black splash for Thoughtseize and Shriekmaw. While somewhat ambitious, I’m sure you can build a mana base that supports both splashes. I don’t think Elfgren has built such a mana base, as nine sources of black and seven sources of white are just not enough. I’m not sure what the solution is; though I would at least try a Murmuring Bosk so as to make the fetchlands capable of hitting any color.
Another uncommon feature of Elfgren’s list is his replacing Elvish Visionary with Fauna Shaman (also an Elf!). Fauna Shaman is a solid way to help ensure that you get a good mix of Elves, as the deck plays out much differently than it used to in the old Glimpse days. Now, you’re mostly looking at generating a really big army and a really big advantage but often still being vulnerable to something as simple as a sweeper. As a result, Elves is very weak against Four-Color Control, as well as Faeries. On the other hand, it performs very well against almost every deck in the field. Some decks are destined to be close matchups, no matter who you play against…
Elves is no such deck. In the words of Luis Scott-Vargas:
“Elves matchups tend to be miserable to test, since none of them are close at all.”
Interestingly, Elves is yet another deck that performed well but is very susceptible to hate, such as sweepers, one-mana removal spells, permission, and discard. This is going to be a very interesting PTQ format, as the tools exist to hate all the major players out, but you can’t hit them all at the same time. As a result, there’s a going to be a huge reward to correctly identifying where in the cycle of the metagame your event is on any given weekend. We’re going to see a format that evolves from week to week, potentially looping back around multiple times. This is a great opportunity to gain an advantage by having the best possible information and coming up with new tech.
I could see this going a couple ways. First, a lot of people will switch decks from week to week, always trying to guess what everyone else will do next. This can work and might pay off the best if someone is strong with every deck. However, there’s a lot of opportunity for someone that is disciplined and just works on one strategy for many weeks in a row. As long as they are working on a strong core deck, mastering that deck could be more valuable than guessing the right place to be in a week. Given that so many other people will be switching from week to week, PTQ players that stay the course have a chance to outplay opponents who aren’t as familiar with all of the matchups and interactions. There’s no question we want to tune our decks from week to week, as the format evolves, but there’s no deck that is so good you have to play it (at least not yet), and playing a deck well is very important in this format, not just playing a good deck.
6-0 in Extended portion:
Creatures (27)
- 3 Ornithopter
- 4 Ranger of Eos
- 4 Master of Etherium
- 4 Tidehollow Sculler
- 4 Court Homunculus
- 4 Steel Overseer
- 4 Memnite
Lands (17)
Spells (16)
Finally we come to the dark horse, the variable that stands to throw a monkey wrench into the format, Tempered Steel. First of all, you may hear this deck described throughout the season periodically as “Affinity.” This is perfectly understandable, as Affinity has taken to mean “artifact creature beatdown deck” in much the same way Dredge has come to mean “graveyard deck.” That said, I can imagine that tournament organizers everywhere are scared to death of the name Affinity catching on, as that is definitely the part of Mirrodin block that hurt the game the most. In fact, more people quit Magic because of the Affinity deck than any other reason in the game’s history. As such, I think we can forgive the TOs for hoping the name “Tempered Steel” catches on instead. Either way, the key to a good Magic deck name is people knowing what you’re talking about. Either of these names can work, since both make it clear what you mean.
Why do Jund, Bant, Naya, Grixis, and Esper work so well as deck names? They were quite brilliant, engineered to be names that would be easy to describe decks and color combinations with, as Wizards of the Coast learned from the mistakes of Invasion block.
Necra? Ceta? Ana? Dega? Raka?
Yeah, not exactly the catchiest of wedge names, which is a shame given how nice it would be to have good names for them.
Necra = Junk (The day will come, however, when a non-Junk deck uses these colors…)
Ceta = Rug (Being able to pronounce the color combination as a word has its advantages)
Ana = Bug (Although somewhat more confusing than Rug, this one still works)
Dega = BWR (Dark Boros? Fortunately, doesn’t come up often yet…)
Raka = UWR (Unfortunately this one comes up all the time and leads to countless “clever” references to the American flag)
Anyway…
Tempered Steel is an artifact creature beatdown deck in the same vein as Affinity. Without the actual affinity mechanic, your primary rewards for playing artifacts are now metalcraft or various enhancements that key on artifacts. This strategy is straight-forward, fun, and a much more effective beatdown deck than trying to copy-paste White Weenie or Doran from last season or Zoo or Boros from before that. As we said, only seven pilots means it wasn’t particularly popular, which surprises me personally, as it’s one of the decks we tested most on account of how strong it seemed.
With three of its pilots obtaining records of 4-1-1 or better, including an undefeated player, Tempered Steel posted the best batting average, a stat that’s sure to change as it gains widespread adoption by the community. This isn’t only a result of larger numbers making it harder to succeed percentage-wise; it’s also a function of an increase in anti-artifact hate, effective creature kill like Day of Judgment, and players actually getting some experience testing against the deck (something that most people in Chiba seemed to lack).
My conclusion is that Tempered Steel will catch on and enjoy mild success, serving as a very reasonable alternative for someone that wants to avoid either end of the Control/Combo spectrum (although truth be told, it is probably more of a wheel, with combo and control meeting back together).
Control — Aggro-Control — Aggro — Aggro-Combo — Combo
4cc——-Faeries———Tempered Steel——-Elves———Scapeshift
This is another deck that will perform best when people aren’t gunning for it, but while there are few alternatives for combo and even fewer still for control, there’s a lot of room to pioneer a good aggro deck. Maybe Cryptic Command means that aggro just sucks, but I have a feeling we will see a new form of aggro emerge that’s engineered to prey on all of these Cryptic Command decks.
Up next, we have what I will call Tier 1.5, which will be defined by decks that put up at least an average success rate; though each was piloted by only 2% of the field, making it tough to speak with certainty on their relative strengths long-term. Each of these decks has the potential to be a strong deck, but so far, none are popular. The Tier 1 makes up the ideal starting gauntlet, but many others will realize this and instead focus on a strategy that’s just slightly under the radar, such as these. Personally, among these, Pyromancer Ascension and Conscription are the two that I most have my eye on, as I think either could really take off.
Tier 1.5
RUG Aggro
Doran
Pyromancer’s Ascension
U/W Reveillark
Conscription
5-1 in Extended portion:
Creatures (27)
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 2 Trinket Mage
- 2 Noble Hierarch
- 4 Bloodbraid Elf
- 4 Lotus Cobra
- 3 Cunning Sparkmage
- 4 Vengevine
- 4 Fauna Shaman
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (24)
Spells (6)
Sideboard
The RUG Aggro deck is a strange sort of porting of the ninth best deck currently in Standard, adding almost nothing. This strategy seems miles away from where you want to be, but keep in mind, I may be acting a bit harshly towards it. Still, the reason I’m being harsh is that it’s a deck with fifteen four-drops, almost no interaction, a slow clock, tons of clumsy draws, and little obvious purpose in this metagame beyond finding a way to use Vengevine in this format. Don’t get me wrong, Jace with Bloodbraid Elf is super awesome, and Cunning Sparkmage is well positioned, but this deck seems miles from where you want to be, at least in this incarnation.
4-1-1 in Extended portion:
Creatures (26)
- 1 Birds of Paradise
- 4 Doran, the Siege Tower
- 2 Treefolk Harbinger
- 1 Chameleon Colossus
- 4 Kitchen Finks
- 4 Noble Hierarch
- 4 Knight of the Reliquary
- 2 Qasali Pridemage
- 4 Putrid Leech
Planeswalkers (1)
Lands (22)
Spells (11)
Sideboard
Doran is mostly a holdover from Amsterdam, but it appears to have lost its position in the metagame. Scars duals mean that Doran’s Murmuring Bosk no longer gives it a monopoly on multicolored aggro decks. Additionally, Tarmogoyf and Treetop Village are major losses, and Doran’s strengths were beating up combo decks (most of which are gone) and fighting through Punishing Fires (also gone). My recommendation: If you’re someone that loves a good Doran/Junk deck, you’re going to need a different angle from that of the Treehouse style. I’d try more hideaway lands or some sort of a token angle, rather than a glorified Rock deck.
4-1-1 in Extended portion:
Lands (26)
Spells (34)
I imagine we’ll be seeing more Pyromancer Ascension in the months to come, but the most important areas to reflect on with this list are the Manamorphose and Cryptic Commands, both of which are far better than anything used in Standard versions of this strategy. Just think about Manamorphose with Ascension active! The other major development is the merging with Scapeshift. This gives you more combo kills and ensures that you can actually finish people off; though it does make your mana base kind of suck.
4-1-1 in Extended portion:
Creatures (23)
- 4 Mulldrifter
- 1 Reveillark
- 3 Vendilion Clique
- 3 Kitchen Finks
- 4 Glen Elendra Archmage
- 4 Knight of the White Orchid
- 4 Baneslayer Angel
Lands (21)
Spells (16)
Sideboard
What we call a U/W Reveillark deck is actually somewhat unfortunately named, as it hardly has any Reveillark action in it at all. Still, it resembles U/W Reveillark decks enough, that it is probably the best name we have at the moment. It actually plays out much more like the old Standard decks that would lead the way with a Glen Elendra and use it to protect a Baneslayer Angel. I have never been a huge fan of these sorts, but I respect them, and they could have a spot in the right metagame. In general, they are somewhat of a blunt instrument, almost a blue deck for non-blue Mages. If you are interested in true Reveillark, maybe there is some future in Fauna Shaman, plus Elementals definitely takes full advantage of the card.
5-1 in Extended portion:
Creatures (24)
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 4 Noble Hierarch
- 4 Knight of the Reliquary
- 4 Sovereigns of Lost Alara
- 4 Baneslayer Angel
- 4 Lotus Cobra
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (25)
Spells (8)
Conscription, in my opinion, does a better job of being the G/W Trap deck than the G/W Trap deck does. The ability to kill out of nowhere with a turn 3 or 4 Conscription is very comparable to the turn 3 or 4 Iona or Emrakul that the Trap decks produce. Additionally, you have a lot more opportunities to include interactive elements and some natural strengths against control, making this a real hot choice to consider in the first weeks of the season when countless players pick up control decks, many of whom are not ready for decks with such inherent anti-control features. Personally, I would consider cards like Mana Leak, Cryptic Command, and Sower of Temptation. Playing less than four Mind Sculptors in a deck like this is crazy, as this deck abuses Jace better than almost anyone.
Next we come to the Tier 2 decks.
Tier 2
Jund
G/W Trap
Merfolk
These are the popular decks that performed below expectation. Most notable among these was the most popular strategy in the format, Jund, but one that put up relatively poor numbers. Now keep in mind, despite the relatively uninspired performance by Jund, it will continue to be a popular strategy, and it was hurt by its popularity. Jund was well known to be the most popular strategy, going in. This had everyone targeting it with hate; hate it could not stand up to. Perhaps as the format evolves, Jund will climb back up.
The G/W Trap deck and Merfolk are both holdovers from the previous format that many assumed were still good on account of their popularity on Magic League. However the metagame is quite different there, with hardly any Control, Scapeshift, or Jund, but tons of Mono-Red, Merfolk, Trap, and Reveillark. As a result of such a different field, those results should be taken with a grain of salt. Personally, I think Merfolk and G/W Trap aren’t very strong decks, or at least not yet. Perhaps there is some new technology waiting to be uncovered. They certainly aren’t bad; they are just a bit below average at the moment. I hold out more hope for Jund, in terms of decks I see rising up in the months to come.
5-1 in Extended portion:
Creatures (21)
Lands (26)
Spells (13)
Sideboard
Creatures (31)
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 4 Noble Hierarch
- 4 Knight of the Reliquary
- 3 Baneslayer Angel
- 4 Lotus Cobra
- 4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
- 4 Nest Invader
- 4 Primeval Titan
Lands (25)
Spells (4)
Creatures (24)
- 4 Merrow Reejerey
- 4 Silvergill Adept
- 1 Reveillark
- 4 Stonybrook Banneret
- 4 Cursecatcher
- 3 Merfolk Sovereign
- 4 Coralhelm Commander
Lands (24)
Spells (12)
Finally, we come to decks that suck. These are the decks that saw enough play to be notable archetypes but didn’t produce a single record of 4-1-1 or better. Just as the Tier 1 decks performed very similarly in terms of success but were miles ahead of Tier 2, the same is true for Tier 2 decks compared to these. The Tier 2 decks were below expectation, whereas these decks were downright embarrassing. The worst deck of the event was without question White Weenie.
Decks that Suck
White Weenie
Polymorph
Red Aggro
Naya
Ooze Combo
White Weenie was the talk of the tournament just a couple short months ago, as Gabriel Nassif brilliant breakthrough was the best performing major strategy of the event. Many players ported it over to the new format, noticing that it lost almost nothing, and now no longer had to contend with Punishing Fires. My intuition is that none of these players tested much Extended against strong opponents, as it does not take long to see that this strategy is no longer even close to playable.
First of all, it isn’t about what WW lost because WW is not about card power anyway. It is a deck that’s entire advantage came from positioning. Amsterdam was a format populated by many combo decks, as well as creature decks that were built to combat Punishing Fires. What were White Weenie’s worst matchups? Well, despite an epic Top 8 that suggested otherwise, Control and Jund are
not
the matchups you want to face if you are White Weenie. Not every White Weenie player is going to be able to operate at the level of Kai Budde and Paul Rietzl, and not every weekend do the laws of probability go out the window.
The decline of combo has White Weenie players no longer utilizing Ethersworn Canonist, making Elf combo hopeless, rather than just bad. New Scapeshift with Prismatic Omen is a combo deck that attacks from a very different angle than the old builds, meaning yet another bad combo matchup. Finally, we come to Faeries, and I got to tell you, when you are
hoping
that Faeries is your good matchup, you have some trouble. Faeries was a good matchup in Amsterdam, but while White Weenie suffered a few minor losses, the new Faeries decks are actually better equipped to fight them. Discard can actually be somewhat effective, and Ratchet Bomb out of the sideboard is a stone-cold killer. In addition, the decline of combo means more cards like Disfigure out of Faeries, not to mention the format as a whole playing more sweepers and creature kill and less anti-combo cards.
Some people say that White Weenie is never good. That is silly, as it has been excellent several times. The element to remember is that each time White Weenie is good, it is only for a snapshot moment. It is the easiest deck in the world to beat if you know it exists. When White Weenie ever excelled at Nationals or Worlds from back in the day, it was only for a weekend in a format where people didn’t expect it.
When Rebels were printed, White Weenie was the most objectively powerful it ever had been by a mile, yet it still did not perform best, as prepared opponents with Rising Waters were able to plan for it. When White Weenie looked as though it would take over Time Spiral Block, we saw a Pro Tour dominated by Teachings and Red decks, who knew to plan for White Weenie. Where is Soul Sisters now? What is the lesson? White Weenie is a brilliant tool, but one that implies a certain degree of madness
when used right.
While most White Weenie players just play the deck without thought or care as to what it is actually trying to do, it has a tendency to cycle out and be forgotten over and over. Yes, people try to bring it back over and over, but there is a reason. Even though it is insanity to play White Weenie in most formats, playing it at the right time, when the format is right, and people are not expecting it… well it’s a fine line between madness and genius, let’s just say that.
As for Extended moving forward, I have no doubt that White Weenie will continue to see regular play. Information doesn’t actually spread as fast as we imagine it does and besides, people are stubborn. This is the exact kind of deck that people want to be good so badly that they won’t be bothered by cold, hard facts. What is White Weenie missing? Well, first of all, it’s weak against combo by default, though you can address that with the right tuning. Next of all, it is horrible against control. Now we are in a format where control is likely to be the most popular strategy, which is actually surprisingly rare. True control is a strategy that is “The Best” much more often than the amount it actually gets played, so you know it is dominate when it actually wins the popular vote as well. (And to preemptively cut off any trolls, yes, that sentence is true, even if it isn’t true because of the logic implied within.)
Outside of all of the usual problems with a White Weenie deck, the current builds are missing another good two-drop besides Knight of the White Orchid. Additionally, the White Weenie deck is without purpose. What is your incentive to play White Weenie? There is no Armageddon, no Empyrial Armor, no “broken” Waylay. Outside of no real incentive in terms of cards, it is no longer positioned well, like it was in Amsterdam. If you are someone that wants to play White Weenie in the season to come, I strongly suggest exploring some other options, like Affinity, err Tempered Steel. It doesn’t have to be forever, but let the format evolve. Maybe the time will come for White Weenie this season… but that time is certainly not now.
Leading into Worlds, few decks were tested against as much as White Weenie by anyone. This led to a format where literally every single deck had been tuned to beat White Weenie. White Weenie is not exactly the most durable archetype in the game’s history, and now we are talking about every single competitor practicing against it over and over. This is made even truer by how fun it is to play against White Weenie. It is not that White Weenie is
bad,
per se, it is that White Weenie lets you play your game. This makes it the ideal first deck to try every single brew out against, once you have mentally decided that White Weenie is a real deck. This is bad news for fans of White Weenie.
Red is another deck that suffered from an abundance of testing against it. It is such an obvious deck that received solid improvements that it appeared in every single gauntlet everywhere. The tools definitely exist to beat it and in a tournament such as Worlds where most people did not know what to expect, they played it safe and prepared for the most obvious decks. Red is about as obvious as it gets. I actually think Red might have a little future in this format, but it is going to take a much different take on Red than just a bunch of typical red aggro creatures coupled with burn.
My first instinct is to examine cards like Blightning, Bloodbraid Elf, and Anathemancer. Obviously this starts really blurring the line between what is a Red deck and what is a Jund deck, but I am much more interested in winning than having a clearly labeled deck. This format has swung so far in the direction of Cryptic Command decks, it might be sooner than we realize that someone engineers an R/x deck to prey on an overly controlling format. So far, however, there are too many Wurmcoil Engines, Runed Halos, Kor Firewalkers, Obstinate Baloths, and so on to fight through.
Naya is an attempt to reignite the Magic of last year’s darling Extended deck, thanks to Razorverge Thicket and Copperline Gorge making up for the Ravnica shocklands. While it is true that you do have mana that can work now, what you don’t have is a full-on Wild Nacatl. Wild Nacatl was the entire reason those decks existed. Without him, you are just a red aggro deck with less good mana.
Finally, we come to two crazy combo decks. Wizards would have loved for these brews to be good; in fact both even received deck techs before they sputtered out. Unfortunately, they did not deliver any results. Thirteen Polymorph pilots and four Ooze pilots, yet not a single player with a record of 4-1-1 or better. Still, maybe a clever deckbuilder can crack the code on how to improve these lists. The two versions listed here were very vocally advocated by their pilots, but of course this was during the event and before they had taking all the L’s. Both of these players are brilliant minds, so I would not be so quick to discard these strategies, even if it appears that both were strikeouts.
Creatures (2)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (25)
Spells (28)
- 4 Mana Leak
- 4 Polymorph
- 4 Cryptic Command
- 2 Ponder
- 4 Thoughtseize
- 4 Bitterblossom
- 2 Spell Pierce
- 4 Preordain
Sideboard
Creatures (30)
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 1 Shriekmaw
- 1 Reveillark
- 4 Devoted Druid
- 4 Fulminator Mage
- 1 Grim Poppet
- 1 Quillspike
- 1 Thornling
- 4 Acidic Slime
- 4 Fauna Shaman
- 1 Molten-Tail Masticore
- 4 Necrotic Ooze
Lands (22)
Spells (8)
Sideboard
Both of these decks probably deserve articles of their own, but alas, both are outside the scope of this article, as we are primarily focusing on the major players in the PTQ season to come. Without a single successful Polymorph pilot out of thirteen, I don’t see this one taking off to the mainstream, though the combo is quite good, and we will see it back in some shape or form. As for the Necrotic Ooze deck that wins by abusing Fauna Shaman with Necrotic Ooze, eventually arriving at Devoted Druid and either Grim Poppet or Quillspike in the yard, often powered up by a Thornling.
This deck is pretty clever and may get a little extra love on account of Eric “@EFroPoker” Froehlich Top 8ing, in spite of it. Perhaps that is a bit unfair, as he did draw his way into Top 8, but I’m not so sure it would have produced the wins, at least not in the hands of a mere mortal.
So where does this leave us? Well, there are a lot of directions we can go in this format, but the starting point should be assembling a gauntlet of the five Tier 1 decks and experimenting with some decks against them. If you have a deck you already like or a brew in mind, run it against those five decks and see how you do. This seems to be a format where familiarity with deck is going to really pay off, but also one where it will be crucial to have up-to-the-minute technology from week to week. This doesn’t mean switching decks, so much as clever sideboards, being aware of what others will do, knowing the right way to address common game states, and determining what might have an advantage a couple weeks from now, not just what would have been good last week.
This is likely to be a format full of all the decks people love to hate — Control, Faeries, Jund, and so on — but it is also a format where an awful lot of people will intentionally play
other
decks, not wanting to be mainstream or play the “Evil Decks.” This leaves the format ripe to be plundered by players that focus on winning, not proving how creative they are with their deck choices. There are a lot of “Evil Villains” in the format at the moment.
This is a great time to be a “Villain.”
Patrick Chapin
“The Innovator”