“It’s like the old days, you know? It’s a format where you’re heavily rewarded for tuning a deck that’s just ever so slightly under the radar, where netdeckers are punished. Then you show up and discover that most of your opponents have stock decks, the exact lists you’ve been preparing for, but they have little experience playing against your deck. It’s a deck tuner’s paradise, a world that seems to reward those who can transcend the netdeck culture of today. We’ll see what Mirrodin Besieged does to the format in February, but for now, Standard is a cunning and ruthless, highly evolved format with a surprising level of depth to explore.”
The 2010 World Championships have now come and gone, revealing an intriguing Standard format that has managed to stay fresh and interesting, despite an unprecedented number of competitive tournaments for a non-PTQ format, as a result of the StarCityGames Open Series. Now we can look back at the results and the data to see what valuable information can be gleaned. The results from the Standard portion of the event are almost the polar opposite of the Extended results. This means capitalizing on them will involve a different approach. As old as this format is, at this point, it’s still evolving and will continue to. The SCG Open Series to come will continue to push the format as we approach Pro Tour Paris (also Standard). By the time Paris rolls around, we’ll have another set added to the mix, but already we’ve seen the format evolve quite a bit since the SCG Invitational.
The StarCityGames.com Invitational had a huge impact on the metagame, as Valakut and Vampires were two of the biggest performers of that weekend. The world sat up and took notice with a nearly universal increase of cards like Spreading Seas, Tectonic Edge, Stoic Rebuttal, Day of Judgment, Consume the Meek, and Pyroclasm, as players sought out a few extra percentage points against these two key movers and shakers.
With Standard having so many real-world events in the current format as a result of the StarCityGames.com Open Series, most players had no shortage of information about what decks are possible in the format. The flipside is that while most players played relatively mainstream decks (72% played Valakut, U/W Control, U/B Control, or Vampires), these four decks combined actually posted a losing record! That’s right, the World Championships have injected new life, new hope into the format. Pilots of rogue and fringe decks were able to prepare for the known elements successfully, making up for any shortage of “power” (perceived or real) with a well-tuned deck and superior knowledge of the matchups. After all, it’s much more likely that a Mono-Green Aggro player has a lot more experience against Valakut than vice-versa.
However, we’re also in the midst of one of the most balanced formats ever. Many people assume that is a “good thing,” but some of us hard-core Spikes so often thrive most in formats that are actually unbalanced (albeit unknown) because we believe ourselves more likely to find the unbalanced strategy than our opponents. If Extended was a deckbuilder’s paradise, perhaps Standard is a deck-tuner’s paradise. Put another way, this is a format where it’s hard to get more than a 55-45 edge over anyone, so playing a deck that suits you is clutch, but also flying a little under the radar can go a long way, since almost all the decks are nearly the same in terms of power (but most people only test against the top few).
Let’s take a look at some data from Worlds. For a similar breakdown of the Extended portion of Worlds,
check last week’s article.
Thanks to
Rashad Miller
and
Paul Jordan
for their contributions to the data.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Valakut |
32% |
114 |
32% |
11% |
50% |
|
U/W Control |
17% |
59 |
15% |
10% |
45% |
|
U/B Control |
14% |
51 |
24% |
20% |
55% |
|
Vampires |
8% |
28 |
5% |
7% |
50% |
|
RUG Deck |
6% |
22 |
5% |
9% |
56% |
|
Quest |
5% |
18 |
2% |
6% |
47% |
|
Boros |
4% |
15 |
7% |
20% |
54% |
|
3% |
10 |
0% |
0% |
46% |
|
|
Mono-R |
3% |
9 |
2% |
11% |
48% |
|
Mono-Green Aggro |
2% |
8 |
2% |
13% |
54% |
|
Mono-Green Eldrazi |
2% |
7 |
0% |
0% |
38% |
|
BUG Deck |
2% |
6 |
5% |
33% |
55% |
|
Other |
1% |
5 |
0% |
0% |
53% |
|
Average |
7% |
25/352 |
7% |
12% |
50% |
Other = One copy each of Infect, WW, U/R Control, Ascension, and Grixis
This is a list of every major archetype, including:
Popularity – What percentage of the field played it and how many pilots?
Dominance – What percentage of players with top records (4-1-1 or better) played it?
Success – What percentage of players that played it had a record of 4-1-1 or better?
Strength – What percentage of matches did players using it win?
Standard took place on Day 1 of Worlds, meaning there were more players and less draws than we saw in the Extended results. Additionally, since this was the first format, everyone’s pairings were based on their results in this format, unlike in Extended, where many top players already had very different records as a result of being paired based largely on their performance in Standard and Draft. I also found the Monument Green decks and the Elf decks to be so similar in build and in performance that it seemed best to merge them into one category, Mono-Green Aggro.
As last week, I’ve included the average numbers in each category, so as to give one an idea of if a deck is “more popular than average” or “more successful than average.” Basically, any deck that gets played more than 7% was “popular” (Valakut, U/W, U/B, and Vampires). Any deck that makes up more than 7% of the top winners is, at least to some degree, “dominant” (Valakut, U/W, and U/B). Any deck that saw more than 12% of its pilots obtain records of 4-1-1 was, to some degree, “successful” (U/B, Boros, BUG, Mono-Green Aggro). Any deck that won more than 50% of its matches was at least somewhat “strong” (U/B, RUG, Boros, BUG, Mono-Green Aggro).
Start with the Tier 1? We
mise well
(and so can you!). For the purposes of this discussion, I drew the line at what makes a Tier 1 deck as being both above average in terms of dominance and success, as I did with Extended last week. Success is obviously what we’re going for, but dominance is also very relevant because if a strategy is only played by a few people, it’s much easier for variance to skew the results. Dominance alone isn’t enough, though, as it unfairly rewards popular decks. These two factors balance each other in slightly the same way that the American House of Representatives and Senate balance each other. Both are important, so to truly be successful, one has to pass both. Popularity doesn’t matter for determining tiers beyond serving as a tiebreaker, as it’s mostly a less useful way of describing dominance. It does serve as a good tiebreaker because generally, the more popular a deck, the harder it is for it to perform above average on account of mirror matches.
Strength, in terms of match win percentage, is a new statistic we have available this week, but it’s not as important as it looks. Remember, Success measures what percentage of people are actually performing at the level required to Top 8 the tournament, whereas Strength mostly covers how all the random people in the middle, as well as a lot of people at the bottom, are doing against each other. The stronger a deck, the better, in general, but in Magic, it’s usually better to play a riskier choice that might not have as high an overall win percentage if it gives you a better chance to win the tournament. Usually, your goal is to win the tournament, not just win as many matches on average as you can. This isn’t always true in corner cases, such as just needing to Top 50 to qualify or some such. Regardless, this statistic is still relevant, and the Tier 1 decks all ended up with above-average match win percentages (not surprisingly).
Tier 1
U/B Control
Wow! Yeah, that’s right; there was only a single deck that performed above average in both Dominance and Success (and Strength, for that matter). U/B Control is the clear best deck in the format, at least at the moment. Even beyond these categories, we saw U/B Control crush on nearly every metric. It was the only strategy to produce multiple undefeated players. It also led to five players making the Top 8, which suggests that better players tend to play it. Ironically, this almost seems like a small strike against it.
This single-strategy Tier 1 is a stark contrast to Extended with its five Tier 1 strategies. To what do I attribute this phenomenon? After all, U/B Control performed well, but its Strength of 55% match wins is nothing compared to, say, Survival of the Fittest in Legacy. So where are all of the wins going? Remember what we said about the event being filled with rogue and fringe deck successes? In fact, other than U/B Control, every single strategy that posted a winning match percentage were of below-average popularity (RUG, Boros, BUG, Mono-Green Aggro, and three of the “Other” decks: Infect, old-school White Weenie, and Pyromancer Ascension). This truly was a format where all the popular decks (other than U/B) that people tested against were unable to defeat the well-prepared rogue and fringe deckbuilders!
6-0:
Creatures (5)
Planeswalkers (6)
Lands (26)
Spells (23)
- 2 Duress
- 4 Mana Leak
- 2 Doom Blade
- 4 Spreading Seas
- 2 Consume the Meek
- 2 Inquisition of Kozilek
- 4 Preordain
- 1 Stoic Rebuttal
- 2 Ratchet Bomb
Sideboard
Creatures (6)
Planeswalkers (6)
Lands (26)
Spells (22)
Sideboard
U/B was the clear winner of the Standard portion of the Swiss, using a highly disruptive combination of discard, permission, and removal to try to buy time to win with Jaces and Grave Titans. Wafo-Tapa and Lukas Jaklovsky were the two undefeated U/B pilots in the Swiss, and comparing their lists actually gives us a pretty good idea of the similarities found in most U/B lists and what kinds of choices lead to differences. The biggest difference we notice is that Jaklovsky has only one sweeper maindeck (the most common quantity, though some players play two), whereas Wafo plays four! While most Vampires players found themselves advantaged against U/B, Wafo’s list is actually tuned to beat Vampires, replacing three spot-removal spells with three more sweepers (less Doom Blades is obviously an upgrade against Vampires, and Disfigures are moved to the board).
Next, we notice that Wafo has split Inquisitions and Duresses, whereas Jaklovsky has full-on Inquisitions. Inquisition is the safer choice, being generally decent against everyone, whereas Duress is quite a bit worse against aggro but a bit better against Jace and Valakut. Either of the splits seems totally reasonable; though it’s interesting to note that Wafo’s large number of sweepers give him more tools to make up for the space Duress takes up. Additionally, even a 3-1 split in favor of Inquisition is perfectly reasonable.
Finally, Wafo has cut a Sea Gate Oracle (most pilots use three), in order to make room for a single maindeck hard counter. This just further pushes his edge against the mirror and Valakut. It’s actually relatively common for U/B to have a single hard counter main, though many other players make room for it by running only one Jace Beleren.
Most U/B lists have a sideboard that’s heavily populated with more copies of cards found in the maindeck, allowing you to properly tune your deck to be better at what it already does. Flashfreeze is basically universal, but here we see that Jaklovsky has a Duress, a Stoic Rebuttal, and two Negates, where Wafo has a Duress, an Inquisition, a Jace Beleren, and a Sorin Markov. The Sorin Markov is an interesting and often overlooked option that provides a totally different angle of attack, while also being quite good against Vampires and many other aggro decks.
Memoricide is another common weapon; though some players such as PV prefer to instead just play more counterspells. PV used a Spell Pierce, a Deprive, and a Mindbreak Trap instead of the three Memoricides, which may have been arguably slightly weaker against Valakut but probably paid off big against other Jace decks. This is an intriguing move, especially if Valakut declines a little in popularity.
Wafo made room in the sideboard for the spot removal cut from the maindeck but removing the Vampire Nighthawks that have gained so much popularity recently. I’m not the biggest fan of the Nighthawk as a solution to Vampires, as it just sucks so much to be randomly beaten by a Gatekeeper, plus if they’re smart, they’ll bring Skinrender in against you anyway. Wafo’s maindeck sweepers are supposed to help shore up the percentage lost by not having Nighthawks to bring in.
Let’s take a look at U/B Control versus the field to try to anticipate which decks will gain the most if U/B increases in popularity.
U/B vs. the field
Valakut - 55%
U/W Control – 55%
Vampires – 47%
RUG - 40%
Quest - 71%
Boros – 70%
Everything Else
Combined - 55%
As you can see, U/B puts up pretty consistently good numbers against most of the popular decks, particularly preying on non-black aggro decks while still holding an advantage against Valakut and U/W Control. Vampires and RUG are definitely not the matchups you generally want to face, and among the Everything Else category, BUG and Mono-Green Eldrazi are both bad. What do these decks have in common? Well, it would seem they have natural weaknesses to black creatures and to green ramp decks. The use of Edges, Seas, discard, permission, and Memoricides successfully turns around the Valakut matchup, but with all the focus on that enemy, other ramp decks are much more difficult. As for the black decks, obviously Doom Blade is a liability. In fact, this is one of the reasons why BUG is an even worse matchup for U/B than RUG is.
While U/B is much more of a control deck than most U/W lists, it’s actually a little bit in the same vein as old Cruel Control decks. After all, you aren’t really trying to “take control” so much as you try to “not lose” long enough to play a Grave Titan or a Jace with protection and gain a hopefully insurmountable advantage. This strategy is the real deal and will continue to perform well, but it’s certainly not the only good option, especially if it becomes public enemy number one. Why is black performing better as a complimentary color than white? Outside of how much better Grave Titan is than Gideon (white’s best “fatty” at the moment), black has those cheap discard spells that let you go after Jace decks and Primeval Titan decks and not get totally run over by aggro.
One interesting angle I kind of want to explore is whether or not U/B can evolve to incorporate Mind Rot and maybe even Sign in Blood. The list is already so tight, but we may be getting to a point where the raw card advantage is worth it.
Up next we have the Tier 1.5, which will be defined by decks that put up above average numbers in at least two of the three categories of Dominance, Success, and Strength. Each of these decks can make a reasonable claim that it ought to be Tier 1, but with Boros, BUG, and Monument there were just not enough pilots to back the notion that they could succeed as popular archetypes once people are gunning for them. As for RUG, it’s quite a peculiar case, which puts up fantastic match win percentages and great numbers against all of the popular decks (Valakut, U/W, U/B, Vampires), yet produced a shockingly small number of actual top finishes. In fact, RUG’s only losing matchups were really poor matchups against white aggro decks, Boros and Quest. This suggests a higher than average number of 4-2 records with few poor records.
Each of these decks is a prime candidate to examine, and for someone looking for an alternative to U/B, these are all strategies well worth considering.
Tier 1.5
RUG Deck
Boros
BUG Deck
Monument Green
First, we have the aforementioned RUG deck.
5-1:
Creatures (11)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (27)
Spells (18)
Sideboard
Creatures (13)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (27)
Spells (16)
Sideboard
The RUG deck is an interesting combination of synergistic strategies, seeking to make high tempo plays (Bolt, a timely Mana Leak) while employing mana acceleration to power out some quick fatties, all the while making the most of Oracle of Mul Daya to draw cards and help ensure that RUG uses Jace, the Mind Sculptor better than anyone else. The strategy has come a ways since Michael Jacob first build back during the original Zendikar Championships early in the year with both Brad Nelson and PV winning major events with the Block version. Now, fully charged with M11 cards like Bolts, Leaks, Preordain, and Titans, RUG is better than ever. One of the biggest factors holding it back, however, is that it is without question, the hardest deck in Standard to play, at the moment.
I think RUG, U/B, and Valakut are the big three in terms of power, and this seems like it might be a good time to play RUG if you’re dedicated to learning such a difficult-to-pilot deck. It’s definitely not recommended to just pick this one up, but if you have time to work on the format and are
interested in RUG, I would start by looking
at MJ’s list.
It’s very similar to Faran’s list, except it has an Avenger instead of a Frost Titan, a Garruk instead of an Oracle, and Spreading Seas instead of Magnets. Interestingly, now that everyone knows about Magnet and has adjusted by playing less Mark of Mutinies and so on, MJ moved away from them, instead using Spreading Seas to get some edge over Valakut (and generally just having a love affair with the card).
As for Faran and Zúñiga, there are a few key differences in their builds. Zúñiga is employing only Avengers instead of Inferno Titans, which I think is a mistake, as Inferno Titan is deceptively good in this style. So often, it just kills in one hit, plus the ability to sweep the board or kill Jaces is great. Also, where Faran has Tumble Magnets and MJ has Spreading Seas, Zúñiga has an Acidic Slime and an extra Frost Titan. That seems a little heavy but is certainly defensible.
5-1:
Creatures (22)
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (25)
Spells (11)
Boros was big when Zendikar first dropped but hasn’t been very popular for a while now. Stoneforge Mystic, Cunning Sparkmage, and Basilisk Collar have offered improvements, as well as Squadron Hawk, but it wasn’t until Scars of Mirrodin that Boros finally got the power boost they were looking for with Koth of the Hammer, Spikeshot Elder, and Sword of Body and Mind, as well as more sideboard options such as Revoke Existence, Arc Trail, and Tunnel Ignus. For reference, here is Steven Tan’s sideboard (who also went 5-1 with a very similar maindeck).
Steven Tan’s sideboard:
3 Arc Trail
1 Basilisk Collar
4 Cunning Sparkmage
3 Mark of Mutiny
4 Tunnel Ignus
That is a lot of Scars of Mirrodin action; it injected new life into the archetype. Now, for perhaps the most startling revelation about Boros, it’s matchups:
Boros vs. the Field
Valakut - 54%
U/W Control – 62%
U/B Control - 30%
Vampires – 38%
RUG - 67%
Everything Else
Combined - 63%
That is pretty wild when you think about it. In a format that’s primarily full of 55-45 matchups, Boros bucks the norm, containing almost exclusively great or terrible matchups; though it’s important to note that we’re starting to talk about sample sizes so small that matchups can appear swingy based on just a small amount of variance. Basically, don’t read too much into these numbers, as they’re very rough. While it’s tempting to dismiss a deck that has two really bad matchups among the four most popular decks, including its worst matchup being the best deck, beating everything else and by so much makes a compelling argument that this is one of the better decks. It might be a rocky time to play Boros right now (as U/B is surely going to rise in popularity, as will Vampires which preys on U/B, whereas U/W and Valakut will drop), but the format will probably cycle so fast that within weeks, maybe a month, Boros could experience a massive upswing, particularly if ramp decks explode again or if some new fringe decks become popular.
Wanting to play Boros is a pretty clear sign that you’re a wildcard, as you have to be okay with high variance, ultra swingy matchups, and being terrible against the best deck and the most popular deck that beats the best deck. Still, if you can live with all of these factors, Boros sure does win a lot of games, preying on a format tuning itself to beat Jaces and Titans.
5-1:
Creatures (13)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (27)
Spells (16)
Sideboard
The RUG deck’s brother, BUG is a very similar strategy that basically downgrades Lightning Bolt for slightly worse removal in exchange for upgrading Inferno Titan to Grave Titan. Additionally, it has worse mana than RUG, in exchange for a better matchup against Valakut.
Worse mana? How could this be? Shouldn’t the mana be just as good? Well, actually Creeping Tar Pit may be the best manland in many circumstances, but Raging Ravine is actually a little better in this sort of a deck. That isn’t even the real issue, however. In RUG, Raging Ravine and Copperline Gorge ensure plenty of green sources early for your Cobras without having to play a million Forests. Then you can just focus on getting your blue mana (which both of your fetches search up). Additionally, all of your fetches find the mana to cast Preordain, if you need to use it to fix your mana, and you don’t rely on your fetches for green, meaning you’re likely to be able to save a fetch for after the Cobra.
In BUG, your dual lands are U/B, meaning you actually do need a ton of Forests. Not only do you have only have thirteen sources of green, instead of fifteen, you also rely on fetchlands to provide your green, leaving lots of awkward games where you have to play Cobra off of your only fetch. To make matters worse, all of your green comes from Forests and finding Forests. What does this deck want to do with a bunch of extra Forests? This isn’t the biggest problem, but it can create awkward game states where you need your Tar Pit for both Doom Blade and Mana Leak, and a bunch of Forests aren’t helping.
The use of Doom Blades, Vendettas, and sideboarded Memoricides helps BUG gain a bit of edge against Valakut; though the loss of Lightning Bolt hurts quite a bit against actual RUG decks, as well as being a little weaker against aggro. The aggro aspect is basically made up for by the addition of the current best Titan, Grave Titan. This deck is definitely a deck to watch, as it’s very similar to the very potent RUG deck, albeit less well known. I’m skeptical of BUG’s mana base, but if you do want to work with it, other popular BUG sideboard cards include Acidic Slime and Consume the Meek.
Finally…
6-0:
Creatures (32)
- 4 Llanowar Elves
- 4 Elvish Archdruid
- 3 Nissa's Chosen
- 4 Arbor Elf
- 3 Wolfbriar Elemental
- 4 Joraga Treespeaker
- 1 Nest Invader
- 2 Vengevine
- 2 Fauna Shaman
- 1 Sylvan Ranger
- 1 Molten-Tail Masticore
- 3 Ezuri, Renegade Leader
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (23)
Spells (3)
Sideboard
I’ve combined the Elf decks with Mono-Green Eldrazi Monument decks; as you can see from Canali’s list, it’s arbitrary to try to draw a line between them. A small sample size makes it impossible to say with certainty what Mono-Green Aggro’s matchups look like, but historically, Jace decks with sweepers can be very difficult for them, while they perform well against other decks (save perhaps Sparkmage + Collar decks). The only card that really calls out to me in this list is the sideboard Mindslavers. I’m not 100% on what their primary application is, but they’re intriguing. The card is obviously quite powerful but normally considered too unwieldy for such a deck. I imagine it’s an anti-control card that lets you slow-play your hand a bit. Then when you drop it, you pass the turn, then untap and take over. Once you have their turn, you can destroy their ability to defend themselves, leaving them vulnerable to your next turn deploying of the rest of your hand.
Now, onto the Tier 2 decks…
Tier 2
Valakut
U/W Control
Vampires
These are the popular decks that performed below expectation. The other three decks that made up the big four, all three were heavily tested against and targeted. The line to make it into Tier 2 was to be above average in one of the three categories (which, as it turned out, was always Dominance). Unlike U/B, none of these strategies could fully stand up to the pressure. Don’t get me wrong; these weren’t “bad,” but all three were very average, classic, intrinsically strong strategies that are balanced out by a well informed metagame. This is a very different sort of metagame than what we saw in Extended, where
many of the popular decks were the good decks. However, this Standard format is a very highly evolved animal that has had plenty of time to adjust to combat the top strategies. In Extended, it was very reasonable to build a gauntlet of the five best decks and go from there. Standard is a very different sort of puzzle to solve.
See, in Standard, you obviously have to test against U/B, but what else? I suggest a gauntlet that includes at the very least Valakut and Vampires from the Tier 2, as well as either RUG (or maybe BUG) and Boros (or maybe Mono-Green Aggro). If you have room for a sixth deck in the gauntlet, U/W Control should be it for sure (certainly playing Kibler and Nelson’s Caw-Go build). Why test so much against Valakut, U/W Control, and Vampires if they all performed below expectation? Simple, they are all
popular
and will continue to be
popular.
The season is going to continue to be in flux, and while last week was a bad week for them, the format is going to evolve to combat U/B. This will probably hurt traditional U/W, in terms of splash damage, but Valakut and Vampires are posed to profit from this metagame shift. It will also be interesting to see the consequences of another increase in RUG and Boros, which I expect to see in the weeks to come. Any of these decks can win, and all are fine choices to consider for the weeks to come if that’s your style.
Here are the lists for the player with the best record with each of these archetypes.
5-1:
Creatures (12)
Lands (28)
Spells (20)
Well, it would appear the fears that Valakut cannot be beaten were unfounded. It’s still a great deck, but it would seem that the untold amounts of playtesting against it have bred a new generation of rogue and fringe decks with a small advantage over it. Valakut gained much of its percentage from its advantages over U/W and Vampires but struggled with the new generation of U/B (packing four Tectonic Edges, four Spreading Seas, four discard spells, 5-6 Jaces, and extra copies of real permission, and a hateful sideboard). In addition to a rough U/B matchup, however, Valakut also struggled against:
-RUG
-Boros
-Mono-Green Aggro
-Mono-Red Aggro
-BUG
-All the miscellaneous decks (including Infect, old-school White Weenie, and Pyromancer Ascension)
That’s a lot of fringe decks all benefiting from countless playtest sessions against the “once best deck in the format,” despite many Valakut players not having much experience against most of those strategies. Also, interesting to note, Valakut was so remarkably popular that most of the decks’ performances against Valakut were pretty representative of their overall win percentage. Even if Valakut dips a little in popularity, it’s still the most important deck to test against, as it’s probably going to remain the most played. This is perhaps the biggest strike against Vampires, a deck that features a winning record against both U/B and the non-Valakut field (on average).
Sperling has drawn heavily from Gerry Thompson
StarCityGames.com Invitational winning list.
The most interesting elements are the continued adoption of Overgrown Battlement, Pyroclasm instead of Lightning Bolt maindeck, and an Inferno Titan instead of the fourth Avenger of Zendikar. One area Sperling departs from Thompson on is the trimming of Cultivate number three in order to make room for the third Trap (which is the number most Valakut players play, but one that Gerry is known to cut to help make room for his Overgrown Battlement).
Tumble Magnet is the key sideboard card to note, as it’s a major component of not dying to Mark of Mutiny (as well as providing some much-needed time to get going).
6-0:
Creatures (4)
Planeswalkers (8)
Lands (26)
Spells (22)
- 2 Mana Leak
- 2 Condemn
- 3 Day of Judgment
- 3 Journey to Nowhere
- 4 Spell Pierce
- 1 Spreading Seas
- 1 Deprive
- 4 Preordain
- 2 Stoic Rebuttal
Sideboard
While Kibler, FFfreak, and his brother, Corey Baumeister, clever take on U/W is my favorite of the U/W lists, it’s one that took advantage of its decklist being unknown. Let’s just say, when everyone knows you have four Spell Pierces and only two Mana Leaks, their play tends to change. Regardless, this is certainly the most interesting place to start work on U/W, as Squadron Hawk injects a much-needed shot into the arm of U/W Control. Still, it’s important to find new ways to tweak a list like this. Next week there will probably be a little bit less Vampires and Valakut, maybe a little bit more U/B, Boros, and RUG. This means different answers are called for. Regardless of what changes are made, it’s important to remain
disciplined. Some U/W decks seem to be built with the
lights on, but nobody home,
making claims that there absolutely must be that extra Spreading Seas, or Wall of Omens, or Deprive, or Baneslayer Angel, or whatever.
It’s kind of outside the scope of this article, but I find it pretty demonstrative of the raw power of Preordain in random blue decks versus cards like Sleight of Hand, Serum Visions, and Ponder:
Ponder - Flame Slash (though alternatively, you might think of it as a Lava Spike for four in other contexts)
This isn’t to say that these cards are the same power level as the analogs but rather to show a little bit of the relationship between different but similar effects. Preordain is like a Sleight of Hand, except you choose between three cards instead of two. Technically, you have four choices, but the card is slightly hampered by not seeing one of the cards during the decision-making. Serum Visions is a lot like a Lightning Bolt, but you have to wait for it, making it unwieldy in many strategies or for many purposes. Ponder may let you look at one extra card, but that extra card comes at the price of a lack of options. Is Flame Slash better than Lightning Bolt in some contexts? Absolutely. Would a Lava Spike for four damage be better than a Bolt in some decks? Sure. Preordain gives you the flexibility and consistency, whereas Ponder is only “good” if you also have a shuffle option.
The point of this is not to persuade players to play Preordains, nor debate the topic. There are certainly plenty of people that aren’t going to play Preordain regardless, and for some players, the debate is that Preordain isn’t good in certain types of U/x control decks. These players argue that Preordain is not worth the mana you spend, nor the “threat density” in the deck as a whole. Obviously my stance is pretty clear, but the truth is, if you aren’t playing Preordain in blue control at this point, then argument #27 isn’t likely to persuade you. At the end of the day, you really ought to listen to your intuition but without attachment to earlier notions. One of the cruelest traps to fall into is intentionally repeating earlier mistakes in an effort to “save face” by not admitting they were mistakes. Each deckbuilding decision you make is not an ultimatum set in stone.
No, the point is to provide a more tangible way to look at a somewhat abstract concept (library manipulation). Why is Brainstorm good? Man, 95% of people only “know” it is good because they’re told it is. Do you realize that for
years
most people did not play Brainstorm in their blue decks? They just played cards that did things instead. Again, Brainstorm being good doesn’t make Preordain good, but it does remind us of the value of being open-minded, as well as the value of good library manipulation.
More on this build on U/W, straight from Kibler’s mouth, can be found
here.
Today’s fun Kibler Fact:
|
For reference, it takes a Swiss record of roughly 80% to Top 8 the Pro Tour.” |
6-0:
Creatures (25)
- 4 Bloodghast
- 4 Gatekeeper of Malakir
- 2 Vampire Hexmage
- 4 Vampire Lacerator
- 4 Kalastria Highborn
- 4 Pulse Tracker
- 3 Viscera Seer
Lands (23)
Spells (12)
Sideboard
Vampires is actually a pretty solid deck that’s pretty close to even against most of the field. It’s a slight favorite against U/B and a slight dog to Valakut. This is interesting because given the inevitable shift in popularity to come, Vampires is likely to be slightly better positioned next week than it was this past week. Vampires is also a deck that a
lot
of people want to want to play.
Demon of Death’s Gate is the hot new technology against Valakut, which is largely responsible for Vampires
only
being a 46-54 dog, instead of the more lopsided affair it was a few weeks ago. Natural strength against U/B, a good board for the mirror, and a reasonable anti-Valakut board makes EFro’s version appealing. This deck is surprisingly good, playing a bit of a Red Deck Wins game, just with cheap little black creatures instead of red ones (or white ones for that matter). Kalastria Highborn is your endgame with Viscera Seer to help find it, then comboing with Bloodghast for the kill.
A word of warning, U/B decks may slightly bump the amount of sweepers they have if Wafo’s style of U/B catches on, as he plays a remarkable four sweepers maindeck, as opposed to the one,
maybe
two that most people played. I’m not even positive Vampires has edge over Wafo’s build. If U/B can just interact a couple times and drop a Grave Titan, they have great chances. Sweepers (particularly Consume the Meek) go a long way towards making
this dream a reality. I definitely recommend looking for
EFro’s article on the subject this week,
here on StarCityGames.
Finally, we come to decks that sucked. These are the decks that saw enough play to be notable archetypes but actually finished below average in all three categories. It certainly doesn’t mean they aren’t viable, but the burden of proof is definitely on an advocate to suggest some new piece of technology that could potentially give one of the these strategies the shot in the arm it needs to get up to snuff. I wonder how many times you can say “shot in the arm” in one article…
Decks that Sucked
Quest
Mono-Red
Mono-Green Eldrazi
This is a deck called
Quest
:
5-1:
Creatures (30)
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 3 Ornithopter
- 1 Kor Outfitter
- 1 Stoneforge Mystic
- 4 Vengevine
- 4 Fauna Shaman
- 4 Squadron Hawk
- 4 Memnite
- 1 Molten-Tail Masticore
- 4 Glint Hawk
Lands (22)
Spells (8)
This is a valiant attempt to both occupy the Quest for the Holy Relic spot and the Fauna Shaman spot in the metagame. It’s capable of some truly excellent draws, though it has serious weaknesses against U/B Control and Valakut. Strangely enough, most of its good matchups are the worst decks in the format, making it a totally
backwards
metagame choice. As a result, while it may benefit from the surprise factor and being such an unknown, I recommend avoiding this one.
Creatures (20)
Lands (23)
Spells (17)
Good old Mono-Red… unfortunately, this is not the best time for you. Personally, I think Mono-Red is just a bad Boros deck, at the moment. The increase in popularity of U/B doesn’t bode well for Mono-Red either. Even more interesting than this list is the complete absence of Kuldotha Rebirth Goblins, which wasn’t played by anyone at all in Chiba. What about Koth? Why isn’t Scars of Mirrodin’s favorite son elevating this deck to top spots? Koth is still an awesome card, particularly against blue, but red decks just don’t have the card advantage that other colors have, nor does it have enough speed to make up for it. For the time being, Boros looks like a better home for Koth, as it’s actually legitimately fast. Additionally, Koth is another card that’s so high on raw power that it’s going to surprise people like Lotus Cobra did, where it sneaks up on people and gets “rediscovered” once the support is printed for it.
Genesis Wave decks and Eldrazi Green failed to produce any records of 4-1-1 or better, but their futures are very different. Eldrazi Green is just a really bad deck for the current format in my humble opinion. In fact, I think Eldrazi Green is just a bad Genesis Wave deck. Genesis Wave, on the other hand, has potential. People have not solved it yet; however it does some powerful things, and while it’s unlikely that it can prosper as a Tier 1 deck, it has the potential to be an exciting dark horse. To be fair, this is a deck whose numbers look worse than they could be as a result of most of the
pilots “building it wrong.” A lot of players are trying a lot of variations, but I’d start with
Flores’s Genesis Wave deck.
I would suggest cutting three of the Oracles of Mul Daya for two Garruks and an Eldrazi Monument (maybe even cut the fourth for a Nest Invader). Also the sideboard needs major work, including Tumble Magnets.
So where does this leave us? Well, there are a lot of directions we can go in this format, but the starting point should be assembling a gauntlet of U/B Control, Valakut, Vampires, RUG (or maybe BUG), and Boros (or maybe Mono-Green Aggro), and U/W Control (if you have room for a sixth deck in the gauntlet).
Just pick whichever deck you think you’d like to think about and work on the most, or if you have a brew in mind, feel free to start with that. Now, run it against those five or six decks and see how you do. This seems to be a format where having familiarity with matchups that your opponent doesn’t will really pay off. It’s also a format where correctly metagaming from week to week can provide much-needed percentage, and hitting from the best angle each week will pay off. This doesn’t mean switching decks so much as tuning your list to beat what you think people will play next week, being aware of popular trends, knowing each of the popular matchups better than they do, and being willing to take a few lumps in the process of tuning a slightly under-the-radar deck. This is a format where players willing to go the extra mile and tune a deck themselves or willing to work on something other than the most mainstream of decks can really gain an edge.
Not every format is going to reward the rogue and fringe players, but Standard seems to look that way, at least at the moment, though it seems that U/B Control will also continue to be good. This is likely to be a format full of all the decks people hate to love, Blue Control, Valakut, Vampires, and so
on, but it’s also a format where an awful lot of people will tune and have success with
other
decks, metagame heroes
fighting the good fight.
This leaves the format ripe to be conquered by players that focus on defeating the strategies of today and tomorrow, rather than stubbornly holding onto ideas that won last week and last month. There are a lot of “Heroes” in the format, at the moment.
This is a great time to be a “Hero.”
Patrick Chapin
“The Innovator”