To the average player, card prices seem relatively stable. They know when a popular card rises in value, but beyond that, their knowledge is very dependent on the current season that Magic is in at the time. What I mean by this is that a good portion of the Magic community’s interests in different formats shift based on the product offerings, the metagame, the GP schedule, and the Private Tournament schedules. There are outliers and other factors to consider, but these are the main drivers that can cause a shift in interest.

Here’s an example, during the recent Legacy resurgence, no one was wise to Extended prices because no one was buying Extended cards. When the interest shifted to Extended before GP Atlanta, the card prices shot up, and the general population found the prices right where they left it last Extended season. What the general public missed was that Extended staples were really low before the public interest shifted to the format. What you need to take away from this is that the shifting interest of the general population of Magic players is cyclical.

It’s like an ecosystem that is kept in balance by the influencers of the game (Wizards of the Coast, SCG, etc.). The reason why this is important is because understanding the flow of things helps you to interpret and understand pricing trends. It’s like when you’re about to catch a wave out in the ocean, you start to feel the tension in the water and see the swell. The trick is spotting that swell and getting in at the right time. Let’s look at this concept in action as Legacy started to become the format of choice.

Legacy Tidal Wave

Legacy cards were easy to come by a year ago, and then a handful of things happened, and these things sent people out in droves to hunt down Legacy staples.

The SCG Tour^® nament Series Changes – The fact that SCG runs such high-profile Legacy events helps keep the format healthy. This year by adding the Player’s Club and making the Top 8 of one of their Invitationals Legacy, they made it financially advantageous to play Legacy and play it well. These changes combined with the high level of coverage really generated a lot of interest in Legacy.

GP Providence — This was a pro level event that got pros involved in the format. Naturally, as big names in Magic prepared for this event, they wrote articles and promoted the format through their interest in it. People like Drew Levin and Adam Barnello cultivated this new interest in Legacy by getting on podcasts and providing a steady stream of tweets about the format.

Standard and Extended Sucked — Stoneforge Mystic and Jace, the Mind Sculptor dominated Standard so severely that attendance for FNMs all over the US was down. People lost interest in the Standard format. Extended was no better. It was already in its final stages of death; this was evident in the level of PTQ attendance. People were looking for a new format to get their Magic fix.

The Fall of Legacy

The culmination of all these things brought Legacy to the forefront of the Magic community. That’s when prices started to really get high; for example Force of Will was $90, and Wastelands were $75. People were in panic mode because the reserved list kept Wizard of the Coast from stepping in to make Legacy affordable. The format started to expand, and if unhindered, it would expand beyond its card pool. Before that happened, Legacy interest started to decline. Why?

Mental Misstep Was Printed — This card made a handful of archetypes much harder to play, and it gave blue decks the power to put a stranglehold on the format. It also allowed decks like Hive Mind to beat Spell Pierce and to slow the pace of the game enough for them to win. Misstep made Legacy less diverse, and interest in the format started to decline.

GP Providence Over — After the GP, I noticed a significant drop off of interest in Legacy. It’s pretty simple; when there is a chance to win money playing a format, then the format becomes popular. After the money is already won and there’s no more money to win, then the interest dies down.

Standard Got Better — Okay, Caw-Blade still rules the format, but the format is much more interesting since the banning. The focus on Nationals brought Standard to the forefront over Legacy, and there’s also a Standard GP coming up.

Modern Announced — The news that Modern would be an official pro-level format sent people into a Frantic Search for Modern staples. A lot of people sold their Legacy staples to buy into Modern.

Now What?

Legacy prices are starting to return to pre-surge levels, and it’s leaving those who invested in Legacy staples with an uneasy feeling about the future. “Should I sell my Legacy staples and buy into Modern?” That really depends on your long-term strategy.

Is Legacy dead?

No.

We are witnessing the normal “cycle of interest” at work, but with the announcement of Modern, the question is not out of line. It’s very possible that Modern catches on and Legacy takes the back seat. At this point Star City Games is carrying the interest in Legacy. If Star City discontinued their support for Legacy in favor of Modern (I have no inside information to this effect), then there would be a massive loss of interest. Legacy would go back to relying on local Legacy communities to survive. Granted, there are a handful of real Legacy supporters who will try to keep the format alive (see Stephen Menendian and Vintage), but at the end of the day the big influencers decide where the focus of Magic will be.

Until now, Legacy only needed to compete with Extended for its piece of the pie; that was an easy win. With the announcement of Modern, now Legacy has a much harder battle. Modern has more staying power than Extended, and it’s also a much better investment than Extended. 

Before Modern, Legacy and Vintage were the only nonrotating formats. If you wanted to make an investment in Magic cards, then Legacy was the place to go for a steady uptick in your investment. Because Standard and Extended rotate, the plan is always to play those like a stock market; buy low when things are out of interest (or season) and then sell when things are in season. If Modern becomes a PTQ format, not only do we get the gradual uptick on our investment, we also get the huge windfall when Modern is in PTQ season.

What got me thinking about this is my recent activity. I’ve been buying cards for my personal collection and investing in cards to resell. I’ve noticed that I’m much more reserved about buying Legacy-only staples. This is natural given the excitement that the community has been expressing over Modern. I want to have the cards that people want in my binder, and right now that’s Modern staples, but down the line I don’t see myself stocking Legacy-only staples unless there is a big event coming up. This is a different mindset than I’m used to.

Will Legacy-only cards continue to lose value because of the lack of interest? I don’t know the answer to that, so I would rather play it safe and invest in Modern cards. Keep in mind that even investing in Modern cards has a built-in risk. With Legacy cards, you have the protection of the reprint policy. This reserve list keeps card prices high because they will never be reprinted. In Modern you have no such protection of your investment. So where does this leave us? Where should we invest?

My recommendation is this: invest in Modern cards that are also played in Legacy. This allows you to hedge your bets. If Legacy remains a strong and healthy format, then these cards will have added value; if not you still have Modern staples. If you have Legacy cards that you invested in, hold them and don’t sell them now. Wait until there is another Legacy GP and ride that excitement to get the most out of your investment. I wouldn’t invest heavily in Legacy staples until we know more about the GP schedules and how Star City Games will respond to Modern with their tournament series. My second piece of advice here is to invest in foil and foil foreign (pimp) Modern staples. Because the format is nonrotating, these foils and other pimp cards are going to see a heavy increase. To summarize:

– Invest heavily in Legacy-legal Modern staples. Keep your ears peeled for reprints.
– Invest heavy in pimp Modern staples.
– Hold Legacy stock.
– Only invest in Legacy when attached to a driver, i.e. GP announcements.
– Stay away from Legacy-only staples until we have more information.

Modern Pick-Ups for the Week

Bribery $12.99 — This is tech against the Cloudpost decks that are starting to gain popularity.

Life from the Loam $14.99 — This will be one of the major engines in Modern; people are catching on, but this can still be picked up for $7- $9

Threads of Disloyalty $3.99 — Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, and Skinshifter… OK two out of three ain’t bad. These are dirt cheap right now; pick them up.

That’s all for this week, thanks for reading.

Jonathan