For this article, I wanted to do a thorough walkthrough of a draft, talking about individual picks and decisions alongside some lessons from the format in general. A lot of my more general thoughts do come through while discussing picks, but I feel like I can do more. After you get through the draft, let me know what’s interesting to you about this draft, but also about analyzing drafts in general. I’m especially interested in figuring out statistical metrics for evaluating individual drafts and format-wide dynamics.
  Pack 1 pick 1:
  My Pick:
The cards I considered in this pack were the Tattermunge Duo, the Crabapple Cohort, and Torrent of Souls (the foil one). Inkfathom Witch is good when you can activate it, but I don’t want to make a pick that requires a specific color combination yet. Similar logic applies to Torrent, but even if I’m playing just one of the colors it provides a unique effect, whereas I can anticipate plenty of opportunities to pick up a random bear. Still, that reasoning shows why I wouldn’t pick Torrent over the Cohort or the Duo. Between those two, I feel like there’s not much of a difference power wise – the Cohort is probably slightly more consistent and the Duo has a little bit more upside – but the Duo is the more flexible card, with a higher likelihood of ending up in my final deck. Those are the kind of picks I like to make for as long as possible in this format.
  Pack 1 pick 2:
  My Pick:
At this point, I’d like to make a note that I’m analyzing this draft days after I did it, so if there’s inconsistency between my reasoning about what the pick should be and about what it ends up being, I want you to know that I’m trying to be as a critical of myself as I was of Nick while I was backseat driving some of his drafts in the forums. To that end, I’ll try not to be loyal to the picks made under the constraints of time and pressure. It really is a lot easier (but more informative, I hope) to think about these picks for days than it is to come to a decision in 30 seconds.
That said, I know why I made this pick. I’m convinced that White is the best and deepest color in this format and that I will (and should) end up in it much more than any other color. It has the best EV (due to the amount and quality) for removal spells. It has fliers and solid bodies throughout the curve. And it has the best utility cards. I made this pick because I so highly anticipate being in White that it feels like the Kithkin Rabble is more likely to end up in my final deck than a perfectly acceptable card like Crabapple Cohort would be. You might point out that a card like the 4/4 doesn’t need anything else to happen for it to be okay, and I’d respond that White happens to be awesome at putting and keeping White permanents in play. Still, the Rabble is a gamble.
In hindsight, I think the pick is really between the Mudbrawler Raiders and the Safehold Elite. I’m not crazy about taking either one this high, but my point above about flexibility still stands. With mono-colored cards like Corrupt and the Rabble so prevalent, it’s tempting to bite on one of those apparent signals. But by staying flexible, you consistently get access to two of the triple-hybrid cards in the last pack.
  Pack 1 pick 3:
  My Pick:
Days later, I’m shuddering at this pick. But I have to admit that even then, I knew it was wrong. As much as I like White (see above), I don’t think this format is at all about forcing a color, which is what I did here.
Rather, I think you want to start out staying as flexible as possible, while looking not-so-much for a signal (the hybrid symbols complicate that process a lot) as an acceptable level of depth in one (two, if your lucky) colors. The goal is to be able to jump on either appropriate hybrid in the last pack. In the unlikely case that the third pack doesn’t cooperate at all, you can always fill out your deck with a second color, but you really should try to avoid that second color as long as possible.
Anyway, this pick still falls into the flexibility stage of the draft, and while the scarecrow isn’t exactly terrible, it loses a lot of value if you’re not both Blue and White. The Barkshell Blessing, however, pairs with either of my previous picks (and is still a White card). Power of Fire stands out in the pack, and I don’t want you to think I’m ignoring it. I do have two thoughts about it: 1) I’m particularly adverse to picking up enchant creatures (until it gets to a point where I’m pretty sure I’ll be activating both halves of a pair of technicolor dream-pants, 2) and it’s not color-flexible.
  Pack 1 pick 4:
  My Pick:
It’s funny, the ways the world finds to mock you. I feel very comfortable with this format, I’ve drafted a decent amount, I know the tricks, I feel like my expectations about the way drafts go are reasonable and pay dividends – then I record a single draft along the way to talk about for you guys, and I make subpar picks, and they lead to awkwardness, and that begets terrible picks. Granted, these packs have not been too exciting, but I’m taking responsibility now for painting myself into corners.
At least discussing this pick lets me make another point about how I understand my goal in the first two packs. If I had picked correctly in the last two packs, my pick here is not exciting (again), but obvious – the Juvenile Gloomwidow. But, the last two picks muddle the proper reasoning. First, they show that I’ve started gambling on White in this draft, leading me into the trap of following through on the gamble. In the forums, I chided Nick for taking an off-color Incremental Blight p2p1, then not following through on it. The difference here is that I’m still so early in the draft. Where Nick essentially wasted the Blight pick by not following through, I still have enough time to hedge my bet with safe non-White picks without giving up the payoff I can look forward to if White comes through.
Why is the Gloomwidow the safest pick? Because even though Repel Intruders is significantly more color-flexible, there’s a much higher chance that Repel Intruders will not make my deck even if I am in one of the colors (and even some chance if I am in both), but the spider will always make my Green deck.
  Pack 1 pick 5:
  My Pick:
I don’t have a problem with this pick specifically, but it is indicative of the kind of awkwardness that arises when you don’t prioritize flexibility in your early picks. By this point, the 3/3 persister is really my only option from the pack. If I had drafted correctly I’d be in position to get to decide between the Devoted Druid, the Rustrazor Butcher, and the Gravelgill Axeshark. It’s always better to have options than not to (the hard part is evaluating when to give up immediate power for future flexibility).
  Pack 1 pick 6:
  My Pick:
I remember feeling like I might get one of those random crapshoot payoffs starting with this pick. The rabble isn’t a signal that White is open, as there are plenty of White cards to take over it. But it does give my deck something to live for.
  Pack 1 pick 7:
  My Pick:
This pick is interesting because it highlights one of the tensions of SSE drafting. In one of his early drafts, Richie mentioned that he was trying to figure out how aggressively he should force one of the Eventide hybrids; ultimately, I think he settled on not being too focused on it. Still, if you’re spending the early stages of your draft being flexible, then it makes sense to favor enemy colors for picks that will only make the deck if you end up as a two-color deck. That way you still get full access to one set of the triple-hybrid cards, and some minor mana smoothing along the way. That incentive leads to choices like this one, between the Parapet Watchers (who work better with some of the cards already in my pile, as well as a remaining pack’s worth of Azorius cards) and the Rustrazor Butcher (whose value depends on me ending up in RW in the third pack).
Looking at it now, my first instinct was that the Watchers were the right pick, until I realized that the Butcher made use of all my previous non-Rabble picks if I ended up in UR, which was still an option (I don’t remember thinking of it as one during the draft). An important skill to have while you’re staying flexible is that of keeping track of and evaluating all of your options.
  Pack 1 pick 8:
  My Pick:
I have to apologize now. This pick was a complete accident. My count was off, and I was expecting a Torrent (and nothing else) back from my pack, so I immediately took the B/R card. I should’ve taken the Merrow Grimeblotter. By this point, I think there’s too little chance of me ending up solidly Green enough to validate taking the spider here.
  Pack 1 pick 9:
  My Pick:
Prismwake Merrow might be slightly better, but not enough to make up for the fact that the Torpor Dust leaves me open for BW as well as UW without costing me playables.
  Pack 1 pick 10:
  My Pick:
As I mentioned two picks ago, I’ve given up on Green (barring something drastic) so I’m just looking at the Mudbrawler Raiders as a Red card. I think the Giant is a much better Red card. If the power difference is closer than I think then the pick should be the raiders again. Power should always be considered alongside flexibility, and the trick is developing a quick, accurate intuition for the exchange rate.
  Pack 1 pick 11:
  My Pick:
Either Wisps is fine here (though the Red one probably has a better chance of making its deck). I’ve made a conscious decision by this point to lean towards RW rather than UW when the choice presents itself.
  Pack 1 pick 12:
  My Pick:
  Pack 1 pick 13:
  My Pick:
  Pack 1 pick 14:
  My Pick:
  Pack 1 pick 15:
  My Pick:
  Pack 2 pick 1:
  My Pick:
Cards to consider: Puncture Bolt, Armored Ascension, Knacksaw Clique, Last Breath. Clique is the first cut because I’m still favoring Red over Blue as a second color. The Armor is the best card, but I’m seeing a lot of signs that I may end up with a 50/50 two-color deck (is it still worth it then? I decided not, but I could be wrong). I like Last Breath a lot and think it’s much closer to Puncture Bolt than most people probably do. I wouldn’t hesitate to take the Last Breath if I still might end up close to mono-White (and there was no Ascension in the pack), because I’d want to avoid pushing myself into Red as a second color as long as I could. But at this point, I feel like I’m just as likely to play Red as White, and Puncture Bolt is still, finally, the better card.
  Pack 2 pick 2:
  My Pick:
I like Scuttlemutt a lot, especially early on, but Finks are just better. My only other note from this pick is that I can reasonably expect another playable from it.
  Pack 2 pick 3:
  My Pick:
Easy pick.
  Pack 2 pick 4:
  My Pick:
I thought about Ember Gale here, but this didn’t seem like the deck I wanted it in. I though about going for the safest, boring pick with Old Ghastbark. Then I settled on the one-sided Wrath because I wanted to get a chance to try it. It’s got some obvious problems. It’ll win some games when you cast it, games you wouldn’t have won otherwise. But sometimes you won’t get to seven mana. Or sometimes you’ll get to seven and need to cast it just to stay alive, except that they have a Dragoon and a Scuttlemutt and a Crabapple Cohort out in their mono-Green deck. Just to be clear – I wouldn’t have taken it over something like Silkbind Faerie.
  Pack 2 pick 5:
  My Pick:
Inquisitor’s Snare and Last Breath are one of the reasons I think White is so dependable. If you ended up with no spells except White’s second tier removal (which also includes Aethertow and Fire at Will), you’d still be fine.
  Pack 2 pick 6:
  My Pick:
This pack is bare for me. The choices are between the Merrow Wavebreakers (in my third-most-likely second color, and at best a card I try to cut if I’m playing Blue), the Morselhoarder (which I might not have given enough consideration to during the draft, as it’s looking like I could use the body and maybe the mana), and the Seedcradle Witch (the most powerful of the three cards if I have access to Green mana – I’m not likely to – but also something I can side in against fast Red decks…at this point I don’t have any other one-drops in my sideboard). In the end, this was mostly an aggresive sideboard pick with some small potential to be a good maindeck card.
  Pack 2 pick 7:
  My Pick:
Easy pick.
  Pack 2 pick 8:
  My Pick:
I don’t anticipate being heavy Red, and definitely not Aggro Red, so the Scrapper doesn’t have much going for it (even as a one-drop for the board), and the Blistering Dieflyn is even less appealing. I don’t like Scrapbasket at all, as it always seems like the complete worst-case scenario card, the card that only makes your deck in the worst case. I take the presence in anticipation of many, many better cases, one of those being that I unexpectedly do end up Green and get to pair it with Trappers from the last pack.
  Pack 2 pick 9:
  My Pick:
Another reason why I like White so much: completely solid cards are very undervalued. The trap in that assessment is that valuing the color can lead you to overvaluing the cards whose general undervaluing makes you like the color in the first place, leaving you with awkwardly high picked, umm, Last Breaths, I guess. Ember Gale is also worth considering here.
  Pack 2 pick 10:
  My Pick:
I really have to plead the fifth on why I made this pick. But looking back (from the future, not from future picks), it clearly should’ve been either the Manamorphose or the Elsewhere Flask… probably the Flask.
  Pack 2 pick 11:
  My Pick:
Cool.
  Pack 2 pick 12:
  My Pick:
It hasn’t come up for me yet, but I’ve heard the Moth can wreak havoc on an aggressive Red deck. Slipping in to double block against whichever little Red critter has just enough power to kill the actual body (the creature with toughness and power). Hexhunter is the safest sideboard choice because it gives some other utility. Zealous Guardian is also safer, as it trades with a lot (maybe even a Sootstoke Kindler), and can bail you out from an Ember Gale.
  Pack 2 pick 13:
  My Pick:
  Pack 2 pick 14:
  My Pick:
  Pack 2 pick 15:
  My Pick:
  Pack 3 pick 1:
  My Pick:
Cards to consider: Hearthfire Hobgoblin, Puncture Blast, Ballynock Trapper… you can add the Cenn’s Enlistment because of my two Rabble (but I think I can reasonably expect one later). The Harvest Gwyllion is worth noting just because it has the best chance of tabling, although it does seem like its value has climbed as the format matured. I mentioned the triple-hybrid cards as one of the major poles of this draft format, and the double striker is a fine example. They give you a lot of value for three mana. Unfortunately, I’m not exactly in position to take it because I don’t have enough playables to be mono-White and I’m not really settled on my second color. Red gives me the most playables in my pile and the most upside for the rest of this pack. Green lets me have two strong cards in Presence and the Seedcradle Witch. Black has a handful of playables and gives me position in this pack. And Blue has a few more playables (though not as much as Red). If I was settled on Red, Puncture Blast would get serious consideration.
I’m just going through the motions though, because I’m pretty sure the Trapper is the obvious pick. It’s probably the most game-dominating common in the format… though the Silkbind Faerie is close. It can singlehandedly win games if you pack it up with the most average of White cards. It excels defensively and offensively, and synergizes with all of the cards you want synergies with in this format.
Gabe Walls called it a mistake.
  Pack 3 pick 2:
  My Pick:
In reviewing this draft, one of the things I noticed is how easily tunnel vision takes hold. Forget the fact that I aggressively gambled on White. That wasn’t a tunnel vision problem, really, just a lack of discipline. This pick is based on the information I got towards the end of pack 2. I didn’t get any information about Green being open to draft. I just got information that I now had enough Green cards to consider Green as a second color. That information doesn’t have any more weight than the earlier information I had assessed about how many Blue and Black playables I had.
But I got focused on Green. If I wasn’t, I could have taken the Desecrator Hag and left my options open. But I was, and I took the slightly better, less flexible card. Flexibility still matters here, because in this draft I have a handful of playables in all four of my potential second colors, and none of them are especially appealing. I am almost at the point where I want to settle on one and take the best card in that color at the expense of future picks, but I feel like the power here is close enough to still go with flexibility as the deciding factor.
  Pack 3 pick 3:
  My Pick:
I notice that this is my second chance to take an Enlistment but the pick is really pretty easy. Recumbent Bliss is awesome. And it plays nice with the Rabble.
  Pack 3 pick 4:
  My Pick:
Now is a reasonable time to settle on the second color. The power level between the Aerie Ouphes (and the rest of my Green cards) and anything else that I might play (and the rest of my cards that share a color with it) is significant.
  Pack 3 pick 5:
  My Pick:
I think this pick comes down to assessing how many Plains you’re going to be playing, maximizing your White permanents, and keeping power in mind. I felt like I’d be playing enough Plains, so I went with the much less exciting Hedge-Mage. It’s worth noting that I don’t think I had too many four-drops yet, so the Elder probably should’ve been the pick.
  Pack 3 pick 6:
  My Pick:
This pick seems obvious to me, as I don’t need any more one-drops for the board.
  Pack 3 pick 7:
  My Pick:
I always like to have a Beckon Apparition in my deck… it works well with the Trapper, it finishes off a persist guy without costing you a card, it handles retrace, and it’s a cheap combat trick. But the Shepherd can but a ton of time almost by himself, and can end a game if there’s a Rabble in play.
  Pack 3 pick 8:
  My Pick:
Just filling out my curve here.
  Pack 3 pick 9:
  My Pick:
For this pick, I had to decide if I’d be playing enough Green that I could activate the Slasher and still play Green spells. Otherwise, the pick would’ve been the Hoof Skulkin as filler with a lot less utility than it has in the heavy Green decks.
  Pack 3 pick 10:
  My Pick:
I don’t think I need the Double Cleave here. And I think I’m more likely to get value out of the Gilder than the Ghoul (I can put the Presence of Gond on it).
  Pack 3 pick 11:
  My Pick:
Just in case I end up needing a bear somewhere.
  Pack 3 pick 12:
  My Pick:
  Pack 3 pick 13:
  My Pick:
Should’ve been Monstrify. Retrace spells smooth out a lot of draws, even if they’re crappy sorcery speed combat tricks.
  Pack 3 pick 14:
  My Pick:
  Pack 3 pick 15:
  My Pick:
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Here’s the final build:
Maindeck:
Tattermunge Duo
Kithkin Rabble
Watchwing Scarecrow
Repel Intruders
Kithkin Rabble
Puncture Bolt
Kitchen Finks
Prison Term
Mass Calcify
Inquisitor’s Snare
Seedcradle Witch
Mistmeadow Skulk
Presence of Gond
Last Breath
Niveous Wisps
Ballynock Trapper
Wickerbough Elder
Recumbent Bliss
Aerie Ouphes
Duergar Hedge-Mage
Springjack Shepherd
Twinblade Slasher
Gilder Bairn
I can’t find the decklist on MTGO, but this is what the maindeck looked like (minus lands). It’s a pain cutting it all apart, so look above for what ended up in the sideboard. The only real build decision was the Gilder Bairn over a second Aerie Ouphes, but I felt like I’d like a three-drop and the extra Presence of Gond synergy more than another way to deal with a flier.
Sadly, the games weren’t interesting at all, just frustrating. My opponent was a semi-aggressive Red deck. Both games I bought about 3 turns with the Shepherd. One game I also gained 10 life (plus whatever I saved) with Recumbent Bliss. And both games I died after having multiple turns to draw a 7th land to cast Mass Calcify.
If I get to write another draft article once Shards arrives, I’d really like to explore more ways to formalize the process of evaluating drafts and draft formats so please: be vocal in the forums. I promise to be open to discussion.
Until next time…
Billy