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Deep Analysis – Extended Metagame Update

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Thursday, February 26th – With Extended PTQs occurring around the world, Richard Feldman takes a lingering look at the current make-up of the metagame. Since the format arrived at Pro Tour: Berlin, the Decks to Beat have risen and fallen with alarming regularity. This handy breakdown of both the major and minor players will prove invaluable to anyone looking to snag a blue envelope in the coming weeks…

First, I have to mention the PTQ that just happened this weekend in Richmond. The breakdown of decks was practically half-Faeries and half-Zoo, with only a single Bant Aggro supplanting a Faeries list.

This is an unusually polarized Top 8 for a format with such variety, but I’m not willing to take it as a sign of things to come until we have some more results. What I will say, and I will say it instantly and without reservations, is that the first place deck from that tournament is the craziest thing I have ever seen win a PTQ.


Four Duergar Hedge-Mage main. Four Eternal Witness. Four Jitte. Two Path to Exile. Four Mana Tithe.

I have put together some crazy decks in my time, but my hat is off to Jesse Inman. This list is so ambitiously crazy it takes my breath away – and he won the PTQ with it! Man, what’s not exciting about this thing? I would love to get the story behind this deck.

Now, while I can see why one would call this deck Zoo, that feels seriously dishonest. This is at least half Zoo, certainly, but it is almost half midrange utility as well. I have little doubt that this deck absolutely crushes the mirror, especially after boarding in Kitchen Finks and the other two Paths, and I would be surprised if four Ancient Grudge, two Kataki, and the rest of the Paths did not make a mess of Affinity as well.

I have no idea what the G/B pairing looks like, though I am fairly certain I would like to get paired against this every round with Gifts Loam. The two matchups that seem sketchy to me are Desire and Faeries. There is Pyrostatic Pillar for Desire, though I have to wonder if that is enough to turn around what I have to imagine is a very rough game 1.

I see nothing but Pillar for Wizards, though, and given that this looks to be largely a slower version of the Five-Color Zoo decks that were the original cakewalk matchup for Wizards, I have to wonder if this deck even counts Wizards as a good matchup. Maybe the Witnesses and Mana Tithes are just really good against them? Maybe the surprise value on Mana Tithe was enough to carry the day? Time will tell, I suppose.

It’s also noteworthy that only one of the Blue decks made it to the semifinals of this tournament. I have to wonder if the quarters were all Zoo versus Blue pairings – meaning David Irvine was the only non-Zoo player to push through to the semis – or if he just got the upper hand in the only Wizards mirror of the Top 8. I am similarly curious if Inman Zoo took down any number of Wizards decks on the way to the win, or if it cruised past Zoo mirrors the whole way through the elimination rounds.

Either way, my hat is off to Jesse Inman. Congrats, sir!

The Major Players of the Metagame

The purpose of this rundown is twofold. First, to take stock of the most popular and successful decks in the metagame at the moment; after all, the list of such decks has nearly doubled in size since the inception of the format, with some older decks falling off the radar and with many newcomers cropping up. Second, I want to take note of some of the new technology that is cropping up to help put fresh spins on known archetypes. Detailed matchup analysis is not my aim here, as there are simply too many combinations (particularly with the new technology changing things up) for me to feel authoritative in all the requisite areas.

Having said all that, let’s get to it!

1) Wizards

Wizards is the top deck. No question. It’s powerful, consistent, and packs everyone’s favorite mix of Blue trickery. It offers more opportunities to create punt situations for opponents than any other deck. It has just the right mix of basics and nonbasics to make both Choke and Blood Moon hit-or-miss “hosers.” Week after week, it takes down more PTQs than anything else, and the format has yet to come up with anything to unseat it.

There are two major flavors of the deck floating around. First is the Ancient Grudge variety:


I could call this “four-color,” but that would be misleading. It’s really almost mono-Blue, splashing for sideboard Extirpate, Thoughtseize, and Ancient Grudge. At this point the Nassif version of the deck with Vedalken Shackles, Repeals, and Threads of Disloyalty has largely given way to the Owen Turtenwald build with maindeck Sower, Stifle, Cryptic Command, and — lately – Glen Elendra Archmage. Extirpate is an interesting call here, packing more long-term punch against G/B in exchange for greater vulnerability to Thoughtseize and the loss of the cantrip ability.

Then we have the simpler Blue-Black approach:


The major advantages of the straight Blue-Black implementation are a slightly less painful manabase and increased resistance to Choke thanks to the full sets of River of Tears and Secluded Glen. This would be the obvious choice over the “four color” strategy if you do not believe it necessary to board Ancient Grudge for Affinity. I have yet to see anyone try splashing White instead for things like Path to Exile and Kataki, but it’s not unthinkable.

2) Affinity


The natural foil for Wizards – particularly the straight U/B version – is Affinity, the ever-present Yo-Yo of Extended. Every season we see Affinity do its familiar dance; at first people don’t pay it enough attention – maybe they don’t remember the previous season? – allowing it to run somewhat rampant early on. Then it gets good, players take notice, and the hosers come out in force to stamp it back down. We’re about at that point in the season now.

I’ve heard it said that Affinity is about to take off as the most playable recourse to the Wizards threat, but history says otherwise. More likely Affinity is about at the crest of its power, and within a week or two we will start to see it taper off as it starts to buckle under the resurgent hate. Sure, maybe this will be the season that Arcbound Ravager and Friends escape the vicious cycle, but frankly I doubt it.

3) Zoo

This is the one deck that obviously has the tools to beat both Affinity and Faeries. However, the results seem to depend largely on the variety of Zoo being played. First we have Naya Zoo.


Brewed by Adam Prosak and feared by Wizards players the world over, this is the most straightforward Red deck since Mono-Red. It’s just beats and burn, with Molten Rain and Sulfuric Vortex packing a bit of an extra punch alongside the usual “straight to the dome” burn spells.

Then there’s Five-Color Zoo.


This is an old archetype that has had some new life breathed into it thanks to Might of Alara. As I have said before, I wholeheartedly approve of playing Might without that dumpy Boros Swiftblade, though I am more… shall we say, cautious of Mana Tithe, Hellspark Elemental, and Kitchen Finks main. I also have no idea how or why Sudden Shock wandered into this sideboard.

The major upside of running Five-Color over the Naya alternative is that it has much more punch against Desire. With spells that can deal a full five damage for one or two mana, it can put a deck down faster than any other Red deck on the market.

The archetype has typically suffered at the hands of Wizards due to being too creature-focused, lacking the scary quantity of burn spells and backbreakers like Molten Rain and Sulfuric Vortex found in Naya Zoo and Mono-Red Burn. However, as Wizards has moved away from the Repeals and Shackles and Threads that initially gave it such a good matchup against Five-Color Zoo, and has instead moved toward the slower and less scary Sowers, Stifles, and Glen Elendras, Five-Color Zoo might have come back from behind to score itself a good matchup there after all.

4) G/B Aggro Loam


Depending on the pilots involved, the draws, and the sideboard, this deck is either a slight underdog or a slight favorite against Wizards. Most everywhere else, it is a bit Rockish, hovering around 50-50 in most matchups.

Adam’s winning list here showcases two bits of interesting technology: splashing Red for Ancient Grudge (a time-honored Extended tradition since the printing of Grudge) and maindeck Shred Memory. Yes, technically those Shreds can – and probably do, from time to time – fetch Tarmogoyf or even Bitterblossom, but we all know they’re really there to act as Life from the Loam numbers five and six. Yes, Loam is that important. I still prefer Gifts Ungiven (I get a whole lot more for that one extra mana), but I empathize with Adam’s desire to play more than four Loams.

5) Desire

I have tried to stop calling this deck TEPS and to start calling it Desire again, both because TEPS always used to refer to a deck that killed with Tendrils of Agony – not entirely a fair assumption in this environment – and because Desire is a more universally understood term that does not take any longer to say.

As for the deck itself, many of its matchups seem to vary significantly based on skill of pilot. I’ve heard it reported that beating a good Wizards player is very tough, but beating one who does not know what he is doing can be done pretty consistently, especially post-board. I’ve heard the G/B matchup called anything between “easy as hell” and “pretty tough,” though in fairness, that may depend on draws – especially Thoughtseize from G/B and Ad Nauseam from Desire.

As with so much of this environment, there are two different versions of the deck on the market. The first, and by far most common, is the Tendrils-powered build Luis Scott-Vargas used to add another Grand Prix notch to his belt:


I’ll list the Grapeshot alternative more for the sake of completeness than anything else:


I’ve heard it said that “Pyromancer’s Swath is like Mind’s Desire five and six,” which sounds like a reasonable case for the Grapeshot kill, but for whatever reason, it simply has not put up the numbers in the past few weeks. I would say it’s pretty safe to write off this version in terms of your testing.

6) Elves!

Elves! is the bane of fair decks the format over. It struggles with Faeries and G/B, but is capable of some truly nasty numbers against beatdown opponents. You won’t believe this, but there are two versions of this deck. Crazy, I know. One is powered by Weird Harvest:


The Brain Freeze in the main is an uncommon choice, but an interesting one. Obviously when you’re generating such monstrous Storm counts, either Brain Freeze or Grapeshot will do the job just fine, and Grapeshot can actually be a removal spell when drawn in the early game. However, Brain Freeze can be cast defensively against other Storm decks like Desire and Elves!, potentially milling away all their win conditions mid-combo. This is a tactic Desire players have used in the mirror match for many years, and it seems a reasonable maindeck inclusion here.

Other writers have done up the Weird Harvest versus Chord of Calling debate in far more depth than I will here; suffice to say, the big difference is Mirror Entity:


I haven’t seen anyone play Chord of Calling and Predator Dragon in a long time, and I wouldn’t expect a resurgence especially now that Path to Exile is out. If you have a removal spell handy when the opponent is going off with Mirror Entity, the correct moment to use it is when he activates Wirewood Symbiote to bounce itself. In response to that, shoot Mirror Entity with your removal spell.

Remember that if you are using a burn spell and the opponent has enough mana to pump the Entity out of its range, it may not be the end of the world; the extra mana he must expend might leave him short to continue looping the Symbiote, leaving you free to untap and kill the Entity with another burn spell once your mana is open again.

The two fresh sights in Charles’s list are Ranger of Eos and Scattershot Archer, both presumably to be fetched with Chord of Calling. Ranger is basically a combo in a box, fetching Nettle Sentinel and Heritage Druid up for a single spell. Scattershot doubtless helps out with the Wizards matchup, as it can slow their clock to a halt and can reduce Spellstutter Sprite to Cancel in conjunction with Mutavault.

The Minor Players

7) Mono-Red Burn – I’m not really sure why – perhaps Wizards players learned how to play against it? – but this has nearly ceased to put up Top 8s altogether. Nevertheless, it remains a fall-back choice for many who have not tested (or who are named Patrick Sullivan) and who simply want to play a straightforward burn deck that plays the same way against nearly every opponent.

8) All-In Red – I would say this deck has fallen off the radar altogether, except that it recently took down a PTQ in Germany. From all accounts I have heard, its popularity in the States has essentially fallen off a cliff.

9) Sullivan Red – This is now officially the most successful deck to pack Blood Moon effects in the main. Considering how few people have ever piloted it, it has put up a solid number of finishes, but it remains a minor player in this environment because so few choose to run it.

10) Bant Aggro – Nobody has figured out the optimal way to build this yet, but when they do, I suspect it will look closer to this latest hate-tastic midrange build than anything else. I mean, the first version of the deck to surface had Troll Ascetic in it, and as I’ve made it clear before, I’m not convinced it has ever been optimal to run Troll Ascetic in the history of Extended.

11) Astral Slide – Like Sullivan Red, few have been brave enough to take Astral Slide into battle, yet it has posted multiple Top 8s already this season. I understand from Ced that there is a better version of this deck out which does not include Lightning Rift, but I’m not sure where a definitive version of such a list can be found.

12) G/B Death Cloud – Much more controllish than its beatdown cousin, I suspect this version has put up less-impressive numbers because it lacks the tools to put Wizards down. Everything is bigger and slower, and – for some reason – Death Cloud pilots seem reluctant to include the ultimate anti-Wizards ace, Darkblast.

13) U/W Tron – I haven’t endorsed U/W Tron in several years, and cannot see myself changing my tune any time soon. I can’t imagine playing a Big Spell Control deck in a format dominated by a deck that can effectively play aggro-control against me. Nevertheless, the deck has been good for the occasional Top 8 this season, and I would not be surprised to see a few copies floating around at the PTQ this weekend.

Takeaways

The format began with Elves! being the deck to beat, and attacked by Tezzerator alongside Faeries with Bitterblossom and Wizards featuring Repeal, Threads, and Vedalken Shackles main (and often a dearth of Ancestral Vision). There was also Tidehollow Sculler in Zoo, and these crazy Swans decks.

Over the course of the season so far, things have evolved to arrive at the environment I have painted here. We now have at least six major archetypes to contend with, most of which have multiple different implementations, and a handful of minor archetypes that make token Top 8s here and there. The format is a lot to swallow, and a tough nut to crack, but as always, the first step to success is knowing what you’re up against. Hopefully this guide has helped you get up to speed.

See you next week!

Richard Feldman
Team :S
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