Welcome to my final Daily Financial Value of Shadows over Innistrad article! Now that the entire set of Shadows over Innistrad has been released, we have a much better idea of what’s going to happen with the Standard environment. Before we get into that, I have a few more cards to cover!
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $2
Current Price: $3
Future Price – Low: $2
Future Price – High: $4
Thoughts: I like the ability on Cryptolith Rite and as a Casual card I’m super-excited to have it, but I’m not a fan for any competitive format. If you want a bunch of mana creatures, just play a bunch of mana creatures. You don’t need to play early creatures and try to turn them into mana producers so you can play a giant monster; there are already easier ways to do that in competitive Magic.
I would expect Cryptolith Rite to remain in the higher end of bulky rares ($1-$1.50) for its duration in Standard. Long-term, I could see this card hitting around $5, but that is years away.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $1
Current Price: $1
Future Price – Low: $0.50
Future Price – High: $1
Thoughts: Devils’ Playground is a fun Casual card, but it is far too slow for any aggressive red deck that might want to play it in Modern or Standard. Bulk rare.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $0.50
Current Price: $1
Future Price – Low: $0.50
Future Price – High: $4
Thoughts: Geier Reach Bandit is a very interesting card. I originally wasn’t excited as I’m fairly confident Werewolves will be a Tier 2 deck at best. After giving it some thought, I could see there being a very aggressive mono-red deck that has a curve of Village Messenger / Falkenrath Gorger, Scourge Wolf / Ravenous Bloodseeker, Sin Prodder / Geier Reach Bandit. Such a deck would also have access to a lot of sweet burn spells and combat tricks. If this is a viable strategy, Geier Reach Bandit could hit up to $3-$5.
Rarity: Rare
Starting Price: $1
Current Price: $1
Future Price – Low: $0.50
Future Price – High: $1.50
Thoughts: I like Slayer’s Plate as a Casual card but I believe it’s far too clunky to see play in Modern or Standard. I would expect Slayer’s Plate to stay a bulk rare.
My previous articles have all been written without perfect information since the entire set hadn’t been spoiled. Now that the whole set has been spoiled, it’s a lot easier to gauge a card’s value, since I now know how much support the card will have in Standard. Now that I have more information I want to discuss some of the rares and mythics I previously talked about.
Mythics
Original Low/High – $15/$25
Now that we’ve seen there isn’t really a deck that desires a five mana 4/4 Angel that can wipe your battlefield, I’m less confident this card will retain value. I’d now say its Low/High are closer to $6/$10.
Original Low/High – $20/$40
I still think this card is absolutely insane. I firmly believe that Arlinn Kord will be very dominant in Standard and will see play in Modern.
Original Low/High – $12/$20
Jace, Unraveler of Secrets is currently preselling for $30 and I don’t find that to be realistic at all, at least not until Magic Origins and Dragons of Tarkir have rotated out of Standard. Control decks don’t have enough early protection that will allow them to survive against a format that I’m sure will be extremely aggressive. In the interest of full disclosure, control is probably my least favorite archetype to play. They usually need to have a ton of removal and cards like Wall of Omens, something that provides value while stopping your opponent from kicking your teeth in. Because of this, I’d say that Jace, Unraveler of Secrets will likely have a Low/High of $7-$12.
Original Low/High – $8/$20
Sorry, Kiddo. You busted through the church window and no one was inside.
Relentless Dead is a great Magic card and it could still see play in Modern, but it certainly didn’t receive the support it needed to be a Standard powerhouse like I originally thought. If it does end up catching on in Modern, then my original thoughts on it might not be too far off, but I’m now more inclined to believe that the Low/High on Relentless Dead will be closer to $6/$10.
Rares
I’ve already spoken about a lot of the rares I felt were overhyped in Shadows over Innistrad, but let’s recap.
Original Low/High – $1.50/$7
For those of you who don’t know me, some might describe me as “snarky.” I originally had a chart explaining why I think Anguished Unmaking isn’t very good, but I felt that I hadn’t had the series long enough to start putting my spin on it. I’m past that now.
I present to you: “Why everyone needs to stop comparing Vindicate to B/W removal spells.”
This chart was meant to be a slightly entertaining illustration of the major difference between removal spells these days and removal spells in the early 2000s. It’s obviously not accurate.
After seeing the lack of support for control or B/W in Shadows over Innistrad, my new Low/High for Anguished Unmaking is $1.50/$4.
As players have had more time to review these lands, I’ve noticed that people are being pretty hard on them. These lands are a lot better than people are giving them credit for. I believe that, at its core, Standard is all about manabases and Wizards of the Coast R&D knows that. They’re not going to give us a Standard manabase that is bad unless they want us to play monocolored decks. Theros block lands are a great example of this and even then those lands weren’t that bad.
Lands will always hold some value during their duration in Standard, and now, thanks to Modern, many lands will continue to hold their value. Let’s take a brief look at the price of a land during its first year.
I’ve only picked one land to represent its era in Magic; going more in-depth would require an article completely by itself. I tried to avoid picking lands that I remember being reprinted in their first year; however, after all the Event Decks, Clash Packs, and other products that have been printed over the years, it’s very hard to keep track. I also tried to avoid lands that I remember being particularly dominant, hence my pick of Copperline Gorge over Seachrome Coast.
We can immediately tell a few things by looking at this.
1.) Lands usually take their biggest hit in the first three months.
2.) The higher a land starts, the more it falls in those three months.
3.) There is about a six-month window where the price of these lands is fairly steady.
4.) Once a set stops being drafted, the land prices go up fairly quickly. Unless, of course, you’re Temple of Silence. Poor, poor Temple of Silence.
With the Standard format rotating faster now, I expect a shift in this chart. Canopy Vista and presumably the Shadows over Innistrad lands will have a much shorter window when their price is stable. They will still take a hit after three months, but I would expect them to only have a three-month window where their price is steady rather than the previous six-month window. With the Shadows over Innistrad lands starting at a fairly conservative price point ($6), they really don’t have that much room to go down. They could probably bottom out at around $3, but if you’re just looking to play with them, $6 isn’t bad. If you’re looking to speculate on them and make a few bucks, then you’ll want to wait for the the three-month marker.
The whole point of this chart was to illustrate that, regardless of playability, all lands will usually follow a somewhat similar pattern: start high, dip down, stay down, go up. The argument of “these lands suck, they won’t be played” is false. They will be played, because that’s all we have.
Original Low/High – $3/$10
After seeing the rest of the set and discussing the possibility of a decent mono-red deck, I still think that $10 is too high for Sin Prodder’s top end. It’s currently preselling at $9 and I don’t think that’s realistic. In my opinion Sin Prodder is a $5-$6 card at best with a much lower floor of around $2. I really like how the card reads, but I don’t think it will play out quite as well.
Original Low/High – $2/$10
This is what I think about every time someone says something positive about Thing in the Ice.
I honestly don’t get it. I could be wrong, but when I look at Thing in the Ice, all I see is a bulk rare. We’re currently sold out at $20, so clearly some people disagree with me. When someone asks me why a card is a certain price, my default response is, “I don’t make the rules, I just follow them.” That is definitely the situation I’m encountering with Thing in the Ice.
Original Low/High – $2/$6
When I originally talked about To the Slaughter, I said that I felt it’s the most underrated card currently spoiled. They did not spoil another card that I felt was more underrated. To the Slaughter is a great card and I still firmly believe that it will see lots of Standard and Modern play. If we look at similar cards, things like Chainer’s Edict, Diabolic Edict, even Innocent Blood, all of these cards have seen play, and we now have a card that, for slightly more mana, can also kill a planeswalker. I feel that delirium will be pretty easy to achieve, making To the Slaughter an outstanding card.
Pack Value
Mythics of Note ($4+)
Archangel Avacyn | Avacyn, the Purifier $25
Arlinn Kord | Arlinn, Embraced by the Moon $40
Descend Upon the Sinful $5
Jace, Unraveler of Secrets $30
Relentless Dead $20
Startled Awake | Persistent Nightmare $6
Total – $227
Rares of Note ($2+)
Brain In a Jar $2
Game Trail $6
Geier Reach Bandit | Vildin-Pack Alpha $2
Hanweir Militia Captain | Westvale Cult Leader $2
Port Town $6
Rattlechains $2
Sage of Ancient Lore | Werewolf of Ancient Hunger $2
Scourge Wolf $2
Sin Prodder $9
Thing in the Ice | Awoken Horror $20
Westvale Abbey | Ormendahl, Profane Prince $6
Total – $157
The equation I use to determine pack value is: 2R + 1M (each rare is printed twice against each mythic) / (2x total number of rares + number of mythics) =
Pack Value.
((2*157)+227)/136 = $3.98 per pack or *36 = $143.28 per box.
This concludes my Shadows over Innistrad Financial Series. I hope you all enjoyed it! I’ll see you all in a few months for Eldritch Moon!