Kessig Wolf Run is dominating Standard, and Primeval Titan is currently the best card in the format. Fortunately, this is not the Caw-Blade era. This isn’t even full-blown Valakut (not really anyway). There are actually a lot more ways to meaningfully interact with Wolf Run Green than there ever were to interact with Valakut, not to mention it is less of a “countdown to doom.” Finding a pair of Valakuts would often end games the turn after Primeval Titan was played. Now that he merely finds a Kessig Wolf Run and a Nexus, the Titan is merely producing a lethal creature every turn. This may sound the same, but creatures are a lot easier to kill than uncounterable, colorless direct damage.
Primeval Titan grants so much card advantage that using one-for-one removal is often nothing more than a stalling technique, but this actually reveals a great deal of wisdom about fighting the new Primeval Titan decks. Primeval Titan draws two cards a turn include the turn they play him, so it is very difficult to try to win a war of attrition against them. Today, I’d like to take a look at the ways we actually can beat them.
First, let’s take a longer view of the metagame. This chart reflects all of the major tournaments since Brian Sondag and Christopher Thomson’s Wolf Run Ramp strategy revolutionized the format, though it is a bit of an odd assortment of views of the metagame.
* U/W Destiny, Puresteel, Pod, Tezzeret, RUG, Burning Vengeance, Dredgevine, Shape Anew, Junk Vat
The GP Brisbane statistics are based on the percentage of each archetype in Day 2 of the event, with both Dungrove and Slagstorm builds of Wolf Run combined. The States data include results from the first 28 States reported, as detailed in last week’s article , and is weighted using the Frank Karsten “winner’s metagame.” Finally, the SCG Baltimore data is just straight percentages of the top 16 this past weekend. All three of these very different sorts of events, locations, and types of events are averaged together to form a total that gives us some idea of what sort of a field we need to prepare for if we are actually going to win the tournament. It is better to prepare for the field you actually face than the field as a whole.
How can we know what we’ll face? Well, if we are planning on winning the tournament, we bias our preparation towards the field at the top. This means some of the time you are going to strike out when you hit a few matchups that you didn’t prepare for early, but overall you are going to be better prepared for the events that you run reasonably well and go deep in. Magic is so top heavy, it is generally better to have more strikeouts and home runs, than more base hits.
A few elements jump out at us, when examining the data. First, U/B Control’s attempt to snatch the crown appears to have been short-lived (though I am guessing we will see another major surge at the World Championships, as that is the exact type of strategy that pros tend to favor more than amateurs). What happened to U/B? Well, Neeman and company’s U/B deck was designed to combat the old, Valakut style of Wolf Run decks. Slagstorm was pretty awful against them, whereas Dungrove Elder is just about the worst thing imaginable. If U/B Control is going to make another resurgence, it is going to need to evolve to deal with hexproof threats like the Elder and Thrun.
Not surprisingly, Solar Flare continues to decline. The story of Solar Flare really is the story of the little deck that couldn’t. Week one, it is the talk of the tournament, but a pair of Mono Reds split the finals. Week two, it is the most popular strategy by far, but Sondag wins it all with Wolf Run Ramp. Week three, Wolf Run Green is the most successful deck by far in States, and the GP is won by U/B Control. Solar Flare has already lost two-thirds of its pilots at this point. Week four, we see Solar Flare continue to decline and as always fail in the Top 8. This is no sleight to AJ, one of the original Solar Flare players, whose version is better tuned, and he piloted it quite well on his way towards back-to-back SCG Open Top 8s this past weekend. Rather, this is an indictment of the strategy as a whole, which has continued to stumble at the top tables (despite offering above average chances of walking away with a winning record).
Here is some interesting data that does a good job of painting the picture. This is a breakdown of fifty of the States and Provincial winners. This doesn’t reflect popularity, but rather gives us some idea of which strategies are better at sealing the deal than others.
States/Provincial Winners
Wolf Run – 38%
Blue Control – 12%
Solar Flare – 8%
Tokens – 8%
Mono-B Infect – 6%
U/W Blade – 6%
Mono-R – 6%
Tempered Steel – 4%
Other – 12%
Compare these numbers to the States data from above, which reflects the entire top 8. The data above is actually still weighted towards top finishes, so any deck that has a higher “Karsten Style Percentage” than percentage of actual wins would actually have appeared in the top 8 an even higher percentage than what is listed (and just had its score brought down from not actually winning the trophy). What this means is that Wolf Run isn’t just the most popular strategy, it is also arguably the best. Despite being nearly 30% of the field, it still overperformed tremendously at the top, winning nearly a third more events than would be expected. This doesn’t even take into consideration countless mirror matches that bias the data downward.
Wolf Run isn’t the only story from this data, however. Blue Control, most notably U/B Control (but sometimes U/W), continues to prove it is a tournament winner. It won the GP and a disproportionately large number of States Championships, compared to popularity.
Mono-Black Infect had a similar story, putting a relatively small number of players into the Top 8, but those that got there won nearly twice as often as the average. The reason? Mono-Black Infect is an even more effective foil to Wolf Run than U/B Control, and to make matters even sweeter, it is even better against Dungrove Elder (while U/B struggles). This makes Mono-Black Infect a great consideration for those actually looking to win the event, since it may be harder to actually Top 8, but when you do, you get to beat up on the Wolf Run players at the top.
This is a trend we are seeing continue into the present day, as Mono-Black Infect was the second most successful deck in Baltimore, behind only Wolf Run. If two Mono-Black Infect decks made Top 8, why did we see two Wolf Run Greens meet in the finals? The Top 8 contained one Solar Flare and one G/W Tokens player. Guess who the Mono-B players had to face? Meanwhile, the Wolf Run players had their way with the two Blade decks they were matched up against. On opposite sides of the brackets, this left Wolf Run to make short work of G/W Tokens and Solar Flare (when either Mono-B would have had a far better shot at the title).
G/W Tokens was the only deck to win at an “average” rate, with the rest of the archetypes dropping. That every other archetype had decreased success at actually winning the event is not surprising, as all that percentage gained by Wolf Run, Blue Control, and Mono-B had to come from somewhere. For the most part, it was just a percentage point or two, with the exception being Solar Flare. Surprise, surprise, Solar Flare was the major archetype with the lowest conversion rate turning top 8s into wins.
One last note on this metagame data, it is interesting that we see a small resurgence of U/W Blade decks, as well as U/B Blade finally gaining some respect. These are the exact sorts of decks that can be metagame monsters whenever things get too stagnant, as they can be tuned to beat anything (but generally not everything).
Alright, let’s take a look at the enemy:
Creatures (19)
- 2 Llanowar Elves
- 3 Solemn Simulacrum
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 1 Acidic Slime
- 4 Primeval Titan
- 1 Wurmcoil Engine
- 4 Dungrove Elder
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (4)
Spells (33)
Creatures (15)
- 2 Solemn Simulacrum
- 1 Birds of Paradise
- 1 Acidic Slime
- 4 Primeval Titan
- 2 Wurmcoil Engine
- 1 Thrun, the Last Troll
- 4 Viridian Emissary
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (15)
Spells (26)
What makes Wolf Run the enemy? They are the deck to beat. There is nothing wrong with being the bad guy ourselves, but it is foolish to pretend we aren’t the bad guy. What this means is that the format will have its sights set on us. If you are a gangster, it is silly to think that the cops aren’t going to be paying closer attention to you. Whenever the format has a “best deck,” there is a slight “Best Deck vs. The Format” dynamic. Everyone knows that Wolf Run is the best deck, so presumably everyone is showing up with something they think can beat it. Most of them are obviously wrong and going to lose to the villain, but the best villains are generally stronger than any one hero.
Let’s take a look at what each major strategy can consider to fight Wolf Run:
Wolf Run Ramp:
The mirror! I am eagerly awaiting the next Too Much Information from Baltimore (as well as Kansas City and Las Vegas coming up) to give us some real data on the relative strengths and weaknesses of Dungrove vs. Slagstorm vs. each of the other decks as well as each other.
In the meantime, what can we do to win the mirror or pseudo-mirror? More Acidic Slimes and Beast Withins are certainly fine options, especially if you are more on the non-Dungrove end of the spectrum. By not needing so many Forests, you can actually afford to play more Nexus, possibly more Kessig Wolf Runs, and even some Ghost Quarters. The Wolf Run mirror is way, way more interactive than the Valakut mirror and can often be won by strong tactical play and mulliganing better. That said, it is still a mirror match, and Primeval Titan > everything. The entire game revolves around playing lots of them, so first thing: do yourself a favor and make sure you are playing four. Yes, the first versions played less, but in the head to head, the guy with more wins (and there is a lot of head to head, these days).
Ghost Quarter can provide a great trump and gives you even more ways to capitalize on Primeval Titan. After all, if one player gets to Kessig Wolf Run and the other is Ghost Quartered out, I know who I want to be.
Karn Liberated is another option for trying to go even bigger. He is great against Wurmcoils and Primeval Titan, and if you ever get to untap with him, you are going to be in real good shape. Sadly, he matches up poorly with Dungrove Elders. Instead, he is more of a one-of sideboard tool they can use to gain an advantage against the Slagstorm people (though he is still fine against the Dungrove Elder decks, just not as good).
Gut Shot is a great tactical weapon against Birds and Elves in the Dungrove mirror, especially since we can’t always count on having red mana early. It is well worth the sideboard space anyway, as it doubles as early defense against Stromkirk Noble and Champion of the Parish. Gaining a mana advantage early can be big in the mirror, plus we can always threaten to nix us a Nexus.
Act of Aggression is another tactical weapon that can radically change the momentum of the game. Borrowing a page out of the Valakut mirror match playbook, we can Act of Aggression a Primeval Titan to get ahead in the race. We don’t have Valakuts to kill the Titan, when we are done, so this is nowhere near as effective a plan. That said, it can be a huge boost, and this is one matchup where we may actually use Act of Aggression as a two-for-one combat trick, stealing their Wurmcoil to block their Titan. Yes, you get both tokens in addition to the life.
Urabrask the Hidden has been mostly forgotten about again, but he is a tremendous way to win Titan wars. Even if you are on the draw, Urabrask tends to come down the turn before their Primeval Titan. This means theirs will be tapped, and when you play yours, they will be nearly dead already. In fact, one can’t but wonder if Urabrask and his BFF Inferno Titan are destined for a reunion. The combination is exceptional against players without removal. A few Beast Withins is really not that much…
Sword of Feast and Famine is an important tool for the mirror, particularly in the Dungrove builds. Protection from green is tremendous, and the mana advantage it provides becomes game-winning quickly.
The tools are there and known, so the important thing to do in this matchup is practice! Gaining experience with the pacing, which battles are important, how to most efficiently spend your mana, how to race when you are on the draw, and what hands to keep are all important subjects. If you are considering playing Wolf Run it suggests two things:
1) You are a sane, reasonable human being (because to not at least consider the best deck when it is this good is insane, in a bad way)
2) You are going to want to look around for articles, reports, primers, and the like from people who have actually played Kessig Wolf Run decks in tournaments. Despite the external similarities to its cousin Valakut, this deck plays out a bit differently and takes a lot more experience to master.
U/B and other Blue Control:
The Blue Control decks were supposed to foil Kessig Wolf Run, but it seems it took only a week for the Ramp decks to evolve. What gives? Well, long-time readers will surely recall how often we have seen this phenomenon in past formats, particularly with five-color control decks. These control decks are tuned for a specific weekend, a specific event. If we just keep playing them as is, we are going to be in rough shape once people have gotten to test against us and modified their deck accordingly. Remember, when Neeman won, most people didn’t play four Snapcasters, let alone nine maindeck counterspells. If blue control is to succeed, it needs to develop new technology that the rest of the field is not prepared for.
The lone U/B “Control” deck in the top eight of Baltimore was actually a U/B Blade deck made by starting with the Neeman list and replacing the sixes with Reassembling Skeletons and Swords of Feast and Famine, as well as replacing Drownyards with Inkmoth Nexus. This is a new angle of attack that happens to exploit some minor weaknesses of Wolf Run, while helping shore up a weakness of U/B (Dungrove Elder can now be blocked by the Skeletons forever, not to mention if a creature gains protection from green). This strategy also helps in the mirror, but I am not convinced this game plan is actually good enough against the rest of the field.
If we are going to try to make it work against the rest of the field, we need to look to up the power level a little. One card I have my eye on is Azure Mage. Even in traditional U/B Control, this makes for a fantastic sideboard option.
Even if we don’t Skeleton, we have to find a way to fight Dungrove Elder, if we are going to succeed. Geth’s Verdict and Tribute to Hunger are both fine options, though I’d also like to remind you that Liliana really is still an option. You’d have to have a more proactive game plan, since it is harder to “tap out” for Liliana when you don’t have Timely Reinforcements or Day of Judgment to clean up after you. Still, the raw power is huge, and it does things we want done (namely edicting).
If you are working on U/W, obviously you have fewer edict options to work with. Starting with Day of Judgment means this probably doesn’t matter that much, but between Geist of Saint Traft, Thrun, and Dungrove Elder, it is possible you will want an Edict of your own. Dispense Justice is an oft-forgotten card that can actually put in some serious work if you have the artifacts to metalcraft it. A three-mana attacker only edict is pretty weak, but doubling it even half the time isn’t too bad.
Life’s Finale is also kind of a sexy option. Black Sun’s Zenith isn’t really that exciting, if you ask me. Sure, you can play it for two and leave three mana open on turn seven, but it is a real tough way to try to fight Titans or Dungrove Elder. Life’s Finale is a little pricey, but it does have more upside. Searching your opponent’s deck for his other three Titans (or Dungrove Elders?) will cripple the effectiveness of his Green Sun’s Zeniths. This hardly wins it for you, as you still need to address the Wolf Run/Nexus in play, as well as whichever of the two green fatties you didn’t hit, but it is progress. I am not sure what deck goes this route, but it is a very Tap-Out card that would be good in a deck reminiscent of the old U/W tap-out decks that use it as a way to catch back up the turn after we play some other mainphase card.
Psychic Barrier is a very underrated counterspell that we will be seeing more of in the future. It doesn’t counter Green Sun’s Zenith or Garruk, but it does hit Wurmcoil Engine and Solemn Simulacrum (unlike Flashfreeze). Dissipate is so good in the format, we must also ask ourselves if Stoic Rebuttal is what we are looking for, but Psychic Barrier costing only two is huge. It actually counters Dungrove Elder, whereas Stoic is often a turn too slow. It also lets us cast a Forbidden Alchemy on turn five after countering a threat. I wouldn’t want to count on it too heavily, but it is certainly a fine option that should be played more than it is. Counterspells remain one of the best ways to fight Kessig Wolf Run, as long as you are doing something else proactive to actually gain an advantage from all these “Time Walk.”
Ghost Quarter may sound obvious, but there are still a lot of people not playing Ghost Quarters in their two-color control decks. It isn’t pretty, but it is better than nothing!
Finally, we get to a big one: Spellskite. If you complement your U/B strategy with a Spellskite package, you are going to make life a lot tougher for the Wolf Run players. The Spellskites are especially effective if you have Sword of Feast and Famine, as Spellskite is perfect to carry a Sword or protect one from a Beast Within. As long as you have a Spellskite in play, using Kessig Wolf Run is nearly impossible, since you can pay two life or a blue to redirect the pump effect to the Spellskite. If you have Swords, you are going to have to deal with Ancient Grudge anyway, which is a strike against it.
U/W Blade: All of the same tactics that applied to U/W and U/B control apply to the Blade builds, though Blade decks do have a few other options to consider. Protection from green is fantastic in the format, so while we already have Sword of Feast and Famine, we may also want to consider Mirran Crusader and possibly even Sword of Body and Mind (which is still a two-hit kill with Mirran Crusader).
Another option is to adopt Angelic Destiny, even in moderation, as a complement to Sword of Feast and Famine. Between Geist of Saint Traft and Mirran Crusader, we are talking a lot of turn-five kills. Even if we are stuck putting it on a Snapcaster, a 6/5 flier with first strike will totally take over the game.
Solar Flare:
Out of necessity, Solar Flare has been morphing more and more into a hybrid of U/B Control and U/W Control. As such, it is going to approach fighting Wolf Run in a similar fashion. You do have the advantage of a bunch of natural answers to Dungrove Elder, so if you can just do something proactive early, then protect with counterspells, you’d be in decent shape. The biggest problem I have with current Solar Flare decks (aside from their mana) is the Sun Titan endgame. That doesn’t trump Kessig Wolf Run!
If you are going to stay on the Sun Titan plan, at least having access to two Phantasmal Images and two Ghost Quarters after boarding (like AJ) gives you a reasonable chance of cutting off the Kessig Wolf Run element of their game (by copying their Primeval Titan). Ghost Quarter is asking a lot of an already stretched manabase, but you gotta do what you gotta do.
Black, blue, and white have access to the all the right cards to fight Wolf Run; you just need to a game plan that actually trumps theirs. If you just sit around and one-for-one, they can grind you out. Flashfreeze, Psychic Barrier, Dissipate, Stoic Rebuttal, Negate, Mana Leak, Distress, Despise, and the like are all fine tools (if you have the right mana for them), but you need to be doing something to gain an advantage. Day of Judgment is a fantastic card in the metagame right now, so I can definitely understand the appeal of “splashing” it in your U/B Control deck (and gaining Timely Reinforcements and Oblivion Ring). What we need is a better endgame.
Mono-Black Infect:
As discussed above, the primary reason it is surging in popularity is its Wolf Run matchup. Distress and Despise are both excellent discard options to disrupt the Wolf Run player, as a flying infect creature puts them on a clock. Lashwrithe on a flier or Skithiryx by itself are really hard for Wolf Run to race. Whispering Specter as a Mind Twist is brutal. Liliana, Tribute to Hunger, and the like take care of Dungrove Elder. We even have access to Spellskites or Memoricides to move the matchup squarely in our favor.
One of the archetype’s original advocates, @smi77y, is right. We need to be willing to sideboard out Phyrexian Crusader in this matchup. He gets chumped too often and is better replaced with more discard and removal. We should be mindful of an opponent Green Sunning for Melira, but ideally we should have plenty of removal, like Victim of Night, to take care of it.
Mono Red:
Viridian Emissary was a problem but is far less common because of the rise of Dungrove Elder. Inkmoth Nexus was already a fantastic target. Now that Birds of Paradise and Llanowar Elves are more popular than ever, Gut Shot and Geistflames are especially strong.
Being on the play is so huge in this matchup, so we are already going to be in much better shape when we get to play a one-drop, then a one-drop and a removal spell on turn two. The games I am much more concerned with are when we are on the draw and facing down a turn-one Birds or Elves. In this position, Gut Shot gives us a way to “steal” the play. Now we are the one with a one-drop, and our opponent is a play behind.
Geistflame isn’t as sexy a turn-one play, of course, but the ability to kill an early Bird or Elf and still have an answer to the first Nexus is great. The only thing I don’t like about this is the assumption that it is the Nexus we are worried about. After all, the Primeval Titan is also a legal target for Kessig Wolf Run and trying to burn that guy out is annoying. Brimstone Volley can certainly get there with a little help, but that is a lot of burn not going to our opponent’s face. Geistflame may be less exciting against Champion of the Parish, Avacyn’s Pilgrim, and Birds of Paradise, but the extra “card” we get from Geistflame is much appreciated against decks like Mono-Black Infect (Plague Stinger, Whispering Specter, Inkmoth Nexus), Snapcaster decks (because it sucks to have to use a card to kill the 2/1, plus they often have a Nexus or you can use it to combine with Brimstone Volley to kill a “six”), and the mirror (since you will both flood out most of the time anyway.
Chandra’s Phoenix flying over the top helps make it more appealing to splash Kessig Wolf Run (which I am totally on board with). Wolf Run decks are generally a little weak to fliers, so making a giant flying threat is one of the best ways to fight them.
Act of Aggression has always been a great tool in red decks against R/G Ramp, so even though we have no Teetering Peaks, we can still use it as six points of attacking damage plus getting their Wurmcoil out of the way.
G/W Tokens:
Not going to lie, this is a rough one to try to get extra edge in. Your primary game plan isn’t terrible against them, so you can just race, but these are not the colors to try to disrupt Wolf Run’s game plan. Making giant fliers has always been a good strategy against Wolf Run, so maybe pushing the flying theme a little is worth exploring. Most Token decks don’t have the mana for it these days, but I can’t help but wonder if Overrun would help speed things up. Triumph of the Horde is also an interesting option that is easier to cast and doesn’t get hurt by Wurmcoil Engine. This is especially interesting if you are playing a lot of fliers (like Midnight Haunting) and Crusades for them.
Spellskite and Beast Within are both options, of course, especially if all you need to do is slow them down. The important thing is figuring out how aggressive you need to be (and how reactive you can afford to be). Spellskite is much more exciting in Tempered Steel (assuming one is excited about playing Tempered Steel, at this point). That it actually has synergy with the deck is nice and can help Tempered Steel actually have a winning match here (side note: play Mikaeus in Tempered Steel!).
Kessig Wolf Run is a very formidable adversary, but not oppressively so. The tools are there for most strategies to tune their deck against it. When in doubt, add Spellskites. The big lesson, though, is not to be a total do-nothing deck. If you just sit around, the Wolf Run decks often have inevitability. You need to do something to actually take over the game (unless of course you put them on a clock, which is the default plan). If you don’t feel like your strategy has edge over Wolf Run at this point, you should either fix that or consider switching decks for the time being. There is a best deck; it is beatable, but it takes work, honest playtesting, and a willingness to “kill our darlings.” We have to be not only willing to play anything, but willing to not play anything.
What have your experiences been with and against Wolf Run? What do you predict will do well this weekend? What new concept would you like to see explored on Monday? See you then!
Patrick Chapin
“The Innovator”