This month, data just magically appeared in my inbox. I have a whopping four tournaments from February that I slowly but surely heard about, thanks to Tournament Organizers finding out about my interest in data for high-attendance tournaments. I welcome this data, and hope it keeps arriving. Also, if organizers have DCI Reporter files that they could send in, Steve O'Connell a.k.a. Zherbus has asked for my help getting data together for a project. You’d be supercool to help out.
Another note about this month’s report is that there was a New Jersey tournament with forty players and a Black Lotus for a prize that I want to include, but despite contacting several people, don’t have the decklists for. Hopefully they’ll surface soon, because a Top 4 consisting of three Hulk Smash and one GAT supports the trends from the tournaments I do have.
2004-02-07 Denver (64 players)
1. BUGR Hulk Smash
2. URW Landstill
3. Keeper
4. Keeper
5. wMUD
6. EBA
7. Keeper
8. Secret Force
2004-02-21 Ontario (66 players)
1. Dragon
2. Workshop Vengeur (MS-DOS ORACLE sez:”Bad command or file name.”)
3. TnT
4. IsoKeeper
5. Sligh
6. Food Chain Goblins
7. UR Fish
8. Goblin Sligh
2004-02-28 Copenhagen (58 players)
1. TnT
2. BUG Hulk Smash
3. SuperGro
4. UR Landstill
5. UrPhid
6. Snake-Tongue
7. Ankh Sligh
8. AK Keeper
2004-02-29 Milan (134 players)
1. Hulk Smash
2. Stacker
3. Rector Tendrils
4. TPS
5. Rector Tendrils
6. Stax
7. UW Fish
8. Dragon
2004-03-07 Dulmen (98 players)(Missing #4 Madness list)
1. Charbelcher
2. Modular Genesis
3. Vengeur Masque
4. Madness
5. IsoKeeper
6. Mono-White Weenie (So Much Rage.)
7. MadDragon
8. Charbelcher
2004-03-07 Turin (57 players)
1. BUG Hulk Smash
2. Dragon
3. BUG Hulk Smash
4. TPS
5. RUG Madness
6. Food Chain Goblins
7. The Rock
8. BUG Hulk Smash
2004-03-14 Minneapolis (56 players)
1. Oshawa Stompy
2. Slavery (Workshop)
3. RG Beatz
4. MadDragon
5. RG Beatz
6. UR Fish
7. Terravore LD
8. Draw7.dec
2004-03-20 Newington (164 players)(Missing #8 FCG list)
1. Control Slavery
2. UG Fish
3. Hulk Smash
4. Control Slavery
5. Rector Trix
6. Food Chain Goblins
7. Dragon
8. Food Chain Goblins
2004-03-21 Massa (130 players)(Missing #1,4,8 lists)
1. Hulk Smash
2. Stacker
3. Hulk Smash
4. Affinity
5. Rector Tendrils
6. Keeper
7. SuperGro
8. Stax
Nine tournaments totaled (56,57,58,64,66,98,130,134,164 = 827; 93 average players)
9 Hulk Smash (1,1,1,1,2,3,3,3,8)
5 Keeper (3,4,6,7,8)
4 Dragon (1,2,7,8)
4 Rector (3,5,5,5)
4 Fish (2,6,7,7)
4 Food Chain Goblins (4,6,6,8)
2 TnT (1,3)
2 Stacker (2,2)
2 Control Slavery (1,4)
2 Vengeur Masque (2,3)
2 Landstill (2,4)
2 RG Beatz (3,5)
2 TPS (4,4)
2 Charbelcher (1,8)
2 IsoKeeper (4,5)
2 Madness (4,5)
2 SuperGro (3,7)
2 MadDragon (4,7)
2 Sligh (5,7)
2 Stax (6,8)
1 Oshawa Stompy (1)
1 Modular Genesis (2)
1 Workshop Slavery (2)
1 Affinity (4)
1 UrPhid (5)
1 wMUD (5)
1 EBA (6)
1 Snake-Tongue (6)
1 White Weenie (6)
1 Terravore LD (7)
1 The Rock (7)
1 Draw7.dec (8)
1 Goblin Sligh (8)
1 Secret Force (8)
15 aggro (2 TnT, 2 Stacker, 2 RG, 2 Mad., 2 Sligh, 1 Oshawa, 1 Mod., 1 Affin., 1 WW, 1 Gobbos)
13 combo (4 Dragon, 4 Rector, 2 TPS, 2 Charbelcher, 1 Draw7.dec)
12 control (5 Keeper, 2 Landstill, 2 IsoKeeper, 1 UrPhid, 1 EBA, 1 Terravore)
9 control-combo (9 Hulk Smash)
9 aggro-control (4 Fish, 2 SuperGro, 1 Snake-Tongue, 1 Rock, 1 Secret Force)
8 aggro-combo (4 FCG, 2 Vengeur, 2 MadDragon)
3 prison (2 Control Slavery, 2 Stax, 1 Workshop Slavery, 1 wMUD)
(1) Hulk ascendant
Not since Fact or Fiction was unrestricted have we seen the hypothetical question”can control be too good?” But recently, Hulk has made us all think about it again. It’s certainly not to the point of”restrict something” yet, but many of the big names in the format agree that not only is Hulk the best deck, but it has no truly bad matchups. In fact, even its number of appearances underestimates it, since the majority of the nine showings were in the finals, with no other deck having more than two finals placements. Definitely the deck to watch for the next few months.
(2) Incoherent like your mom’s 1337speak?
A seemingly inordinate spatter of decks appeared this month in the”non-Hulk” category. We have everything from Secret Force to a Modular deck to White Weenie (discussed below). In fact, the two highest-appearing decks are those which are most well adapted to dealing with a near-random metagame. The factors bringing about the incoherence are many, and part of it is naturally the incorporation of data from far and wide locales which haven’t yet formed a history of good players and good decks (some of the Ontario players themselves admitted they don’t know what to expect in the area). Of course, the Germans didn’t help when they held Dulmen on the same day as Regionals. I think that as global metagames pick up the hints about the best decks, we’ll see more focus in the coming weeks – note that the Hulk, Slavery, and FCG counts have been rising, not steady.
(3) Phil’s Watch List
Amusingly, Spoils of the Vault was finally played… as a one-of. Yeah, restricting that’s gonna do a ton of good. Mmhmm. (Well, maybe for Type 1.5, but I’m not qualified to know whether that’s really a good or bad idea.)
This time I finally am showing trend lines since I started collecting data, expressed in occurrences per Top 8.
Card # | Card Name | 2003 | Jan | Feb | Mar |
28 | 2.8 | 2.8 | +3.4 | -3.1 | |
92 | 7.7 | +10.4 | -8.5 | +10.2 | |
57 | 4.8 | +5.2 | +7.4 | -6.3 | |
54 | 9.6 | -8.6 | -6.6 | -6.0 | |
42 | 4.8 | +7.8 | -6.4 | -4.7 | |
36 | 8.2 | -1.6 | +5.6 | -4.0 | |
36 | 6.8 | -6.4 | -4.0 | 4.0 | |
31 | 4.5 | -3.0 | +3.2 | +3.4 | |
27 | 1.1 | +2.2 | +3.8 | -3.0 | |
27 | 0 | +1.6 | -0 | +3.0 | |
15 | 2.4 | -0 | +3.6 | -1.7 | |
7 | .8 | -0 | +.8 | .8 | |
2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +.2 |
* – Inferred increases from absent decklists (germane: 1 Madness, 1 Hulk, 1 Stax missing). I inferred 1 Yawgmoth’s Will, 4 Mana Drain, 3 Cunning Wish, 3 Psychatog, 4 Mishra’s Workshop, 4 Bazaar of Baghdad, and 2 Intuition.
No card increased all three times, with the opposite position occupied by only Chalice of the Void.
(4) Sweet mother of… someone played White Weenie!
I will just briefly quote my initial reaction from The Mana Drain when I saw that list. Bear in mind that I didn’t even notice it on the first reading – I assumed a decklist that short must automatically be a bunch of Goblins.
[…] You realize that in the total count for four months of decklists, there weren’t as many Plains as are fielded in that one deck, right? […] In fact, I believe that this is the final validation of quantum mechanics. Eventually, if one billion gajillion people try White Weenie in Type One, eventually one of them will successfully mise their way through seven rounds of Dulmen into the Top 8. I suppose it had to happen eventually. But I always assumed probability would protect me. Now, though, I’ll hang my head in shame and report to the world of SCG readers the terrible truth… […] Next week’s SCG headline:”Enlightened Tutor broken while searching for Crusade; calls for banning begun.” And of course, to make matters worse, there’s five teamwork enchantments. Which we all”know” to be terrible. I mean, how could something that encourages you into overcommitting be good? Apparently, we simply lacked the cajones to play such an amazing deck. Leonin Skyhunter, the day is yours. […]
March Card Totals
Total missing decklists: 1 Hulk, 1 Affinity, 1 Stax, 1 Madness, 1 FCG (+4 cards from Draw7.dec sideboard)
62 Mountain
59 Island
48 Forest
26 Plains
11 Swamp
3 Snow-Covered Forest
3 Snow-Covered Island
51 Black Lotus
48 Sol Ring
47 Ancestral Recall
47 Mox Sapphire
46 Mox Emerald
43 Mox Jet
41 Time Walk
39 Mox Ruby
38 Strip Mine
36 Demonic Tutor
34 Mox Pearl
27 Mana Crypt
27 Yawgmoth’s Will
26 Library of Alexandria
26 Mystical Tutor
25 Vampiric Tutor
18 Fact or Fiction
17 Lotus Petal
16 Mana Vault
16 Mind Twist
15 Memory Jar
15 Tolarian Academy
15 Wheel of Fortune
14 Balance
11 Timetwister
10 Tinker
9 Gush
9 Necropotence
8 Enlightened Tutor
8 Regrowth
7 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
5 Burning Wish
5 Windfall
4 Chrome Mox
4 Grim Monolith
3 Demonic Consultation
3 Frantic Search
3 Lion’s Eye Diamond
3 Mind’s Desire
3 Stroke of Genius
2 Channel
2 Entomb
2 Fastbond
2 Fork
2 Mox Diamond
1 Black Vise
1 Crop Rotation
164 Force of Will – As always.
116 Wasteland – highest land
114 Brainstorm
103 Underground Sea
88 Mana Drain
88 Polluted Delta
77 Red Elemental Blast – highest red
74 Flooded Strand
67 Tropical Island
65 Duress – highest black
65 Volcanic Island
62 Naturalize – highest green
59 Stifle
58 Tormod’s Crypt – highest artifact
54 Chalice of the Void
54 Cunning Wish
51 Wooded Foothills
48 Rack and Ruin
48 Swords to Plowshares – highest white
46 Taiga
44 Accumulated Knowledge
43 Goblin Welder
40 Mishra’s Factory
38 Blood Moon
38 Mishra’s Workshop
37 Tundra
36 Dark Ritual
35 Squee, Goblin Nabob
34 Blue Elemental Blast
34 Fire/Ice
33 Gorilla Shaman
32 Bazaar of Baghdad
30 Misdirection
29 Intuition
27 Elvish Spirit Guide
27 Pernicious Deed
27 Standstill
25 Gemstone Mine
25 Xantid Swarm
24 Psychatog
24 Survival of the Fittest
23 Coffin Purge
23 Null Rod
22 Animate Dead
22 Artifact Mutation
22 Lightning Bolt
21 Chain of Vapor
21 Meddling Mage
21 Tangle Wire
20 Juggernaut
20 Troll Ascetic
20 Worldgorger Dragon
19 Cabal Therapy
19 Ground Seal
19 Oxidize
18 Decree of Justice
18 Disenchant
18 Pyrostatic Pillar
17 Bayou
17 City of Brass
16 Basking Rootwalla
16 Curiosity
16 Goblin Piledriver
16 Metalworker
16 Wild Mongrel
16 Windswept Heath
15 Academy Rector
15 Cursed Scroll
15 Deep Analysis
15 Phyrexian Negator
15 Powder Keg
15 River Boa
15 Seal of Cleansing
15 Sphere of Resistance
14 Ancient Tomb
14 Birds of Paradise
14 Faerie Conclave
14 Hurkyl’s Recall
14 Tendrils of Agony
14 Triskelion
13 Skeletal Scrying
12 Arrogant Wurm
12 Chain Lightning
12 Cloud of Faeries
12 Damping Matrix
12 Daze
12 Food Chain
12 Goblin Lackey
12 Goblin Ringleader
12 Incinerate
12 Jackal Pup
12 Pyroblast
12 Root Maze
12 Smokestack
12 Spiketail Hatchling
12 Thirst for Knowledge
11 Chromatic Sphere
11 Flametongue Kavu
11 Goblin Warchief
11 Necromancy
10 Berserk
10 Bloodstained Mire
10 Price of Progress
10 Scrubland[/author]“][author name="Scrubland"]Scrubland[/author]
10 Trinisphere
9 Call of the Herd
9 Exalted Angel
9 Mindslaver
9 Savannah
9 Smother
9 Verdant Force
8 Goblin Cadets
8 Goblin Charbelcher
8 Goblin Matron
8 Goblin Recruiter
8 Grim Lavamancer
8 Land Grant
8 Llanowar Elves
8 Mogg Fanatic
8 Phyrexian Dreadnought
8 Pyrokinesis
8 Rushing River
8 Tinder Wall
7 Arcbound Crusher
7 Circle of Protection: Red
7 Illusionary Mask
7 Nevinyrral’s Disk
7 Opt
7 Quirion Dryad
7 Rebuild
7 Shattering Pulse
7 Werebear
6 Arcbound Ravager
6 Chill
6 Compulsion
6 Gempalm Incinerator
6 Geth’s Grimoire
6 Glimmervoid
6 Karn, Silver Golem
6 Mystic Enforcer
6 Siege-Gang Commander
6 Skirk Prospector
6 Su-Chi
5 Annul
5 Badlands
5 Dance of the Dead
5 Diabolic Edict
5 Ebony Charm
5 Future Sight
5 Lightning Greaves
5 Masticore
5 Maze of Ith
5 Merchant Scroll
5 Morphling
5 Orim’s Chant
5 Platinum Angel
5 Solemn Simulacrum
5 Sword of Fire and Ice
5 Teferi’s Response
5 Uktabi Orangutan
4 Aether Burst
4 Aether Vial – WTF of the Month
4 Ambassador Laquatus
4 Anger
4 Ankh of Mishra
4 Arcbound Worker
4 Barbarian Ring
4 Blurred Mongoose
4 Circular Logic
4 Counterspell
4 Diminishing Returns
4 Disciple of the Vault
4 Dismantling Blow
4 Flying Men
4 Fyndhorn Elves
4 Gaea’s Blessing
4 Goblin Grenade
4 Goblin Recruiter
4 Goblin Vandal
4 Grafted Skullcap
4 Hidden Gibbons
4 Hydroblast
4 Ice Storm
4 Kird Ape
4 Land Tax
4 Living Wish
4 Meltdown
4 Mind’s Eye
4 Mogg Flunkies
4 Mother of Runes
4 Mystic Snake
4 Natural Order
4 Oath of Druids
4 Ophidian
4 Pillage
4 Pyrite Spellbomb
4 Reckless Charge
4 Rootwater Thief
4 Savannah Lions
4 Scald
4 Scrabbling Claws
4 Sigil of Sleep
4 Silver Knight
4 Skullclamp
4 Slith Firewalker
4 Sphere of Law
4 Thermokarst
4 Urza’s Rage
4 Volrath’s Shapeshifter
4 Wall of Roots
4 White Knight
4 Worship
3 Aura of Silence
3 Back to Basics
3 Blistering Firecat
3 Careful Study
3 City of Traitors
3 Darksteel Colossus
3 Defense Grid
3 Duplicant
3 Earthquake
3 Echoing Decay
3 Energy Flux
3 Engineered Plague
3 Ensnaring Bridge
3 Firestorm
3 Genesis Chamber
3 Gilded Lotus
3 Glorious Anthem
3 Isochron Scepter
3 Karma
3 Karplusan Forest
3 Mana Leak
3 Meditate
3 Moat
3 Myr Moonvessel
3 Overload
3 Pentavus
3 Pyroclasm
3 Quirion Ranger
3 Ravenous Baloth
3 Rishadan Port
3 Roar of the Wurm
3 Serendib Efreet
3 Shadowmage Infiltrator
3 Spike Feeder
3 Sundering Titan
3 Suq’Ata Firewalker
3 Terravore
3 Terror
3 The Abyss
3 Treetop Village
3 Viridian Zealot
3 Voidmage Prodigy
2 Armageddon
2 Bone Shredder
2 Caltrops
2 Carpet of Flowers
2 Creeping Mold
2 Crusade
2 Deconstruct
2 Donate
2 Drop of Honey
2 Echoing Truth
2 Elvish Lyrist
2 Fireblast
2 Forgotten Ancient
2 Gamble
2 Gilded Drake
2 Goblin Sharpshooter
2 Hidden Guerrillas
2 Humility
2 Illusions of Grandeur
2 Jester’s Cap
2 Lava Dart
2 Leonin Skyhunter
2 Lifeforce
2 Light of Day
2 Magus of the Unseen
2 Mirari’s Wake
2 Mirri’s Guile
2 Moment’s Peace
2 Planar Void
2 Rancor
2 Rule of Law
2 Scavanger Folk
2 Skyshroud Elite
2 Sleight of Hand
2 Slice and Dice
2 Spike Weaver
2 Spoils of the Vault
2 Vindicate
2 Wonder
2 Zuran Orb
1 Arcane Laboratory
1 Aura Fracture
1 Circle of Protection: Black
1 Forge[/author]“]Darksteel [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]
1 Devout Witness
1 Divert
1 Druid Lyrist
1 Elf Replica
1 Goblin Tinkerer
1 Hibernation
1 Hull Breach
1 Hurricane
1 Jayemdae Tome
1 Kaervek’s Torch
1 Lim-Dul’s Vault
1 Panoptic Mirror
1 Phage the Untouchable
1 Phantom Nishoba
1 Pulverize
1 Reclaim
1 Sacred Ground
1 Scrivener
1 Shivan Hellkite
1 Silvos, Rogue Elemental
1 Sliver Queen
1 Starstorm
1 Sylvan Library
1 Sylvan Safekeeper
1 Tsabo’s Web
1 Underground River
1 Viashino Heretic
1 Voidmage Apprentice
1 Winter’s Grasp
1 Yavimaya Coast
I didn’t count it out, but it feels like the proportion of cards that only occurred once is lower this month. In the future I’ll probably look at the trend in an increasingly coherent, concentrated”playable cardpool.” Until then, there be Psychatogs off the port bow.
Philip Stanton
a.k.a.”Dr. Sylvan”
prstanto at uiuc.edu