With Regionals a week away, I have had zero time to playtest or innovate. (Here’s my excuse.) I’m going to play at Regionals, basically, cold. I’m guessing I’m not the only one in that situation. I’ll talk about how I’m going to choose a deck, in the hopes that it might help others in the same boat.
I will say right off the bat that going into a major tournament with almost no preparation is not a good idea. I wouldn’t do it if I have options. However, in the weeks leading up to Auction, and especially during Auction, I’m getting 3-5 hours of sleep a night. Playing Magic simply wasn’t possible.
Now Auction is over, and I’m going to have to catch up. I still won’t have much time to playtest, but I will have enough time to put one together. I need to choose a deck quickly, because I will probably have to order cards from StarCityGames.com. I haven’t drafted or opened too many Future Sight packs.
When entering an event this cold, you need to go through a three-step process.
1) Deduce the metagame
2) Winnow the decks
3) Choose
After that you can playtest and tweak your deck, if time permits.
Step 1: Deducing the Metagame
An event like Regionals is a one-time event. Unlike a PTQ halfway through the qualifier season, the metagame will not be driven by a slew of recent tournaments in the same format. You can’t review Top 8 decklists from a half dozen similar events for inspiration. The last major Standard event – GP: Kyoto, did not include Future Sight cards. Online tournaments have the same problem – Future Sight has just been released online, and the first MTGO Premier Events with Future Sight won’t occur until after Regionals.
Metagames do not change overnight. They have a lot of inertia. A lot of players will start with the decks that won the last big events, and just tweak them around to include new cards. The last big event was GP Kyoto, and the Top 8 at that event looked like this:
Izzetron Control (Winner)
Gruul
Pickles
U/B/W Angel control w/ Body Double
Angelfire / U/W/R Lightning Angel
Simic Tron w/ Chord of Calling
Project X
Once again, this is a dead format, since this event was played before Future Sight appeared, but it is not totally irrelevant. It unquestionably inspired a lot of later deck choices (including mine when I wrote Around the Horn with Ide’s R/G Concoction.) I was ahead of the pack on that one, but the pack caught up and now Gruul is a major part of the pre-Future Sight MTGO metagame, and the current metagame as well. So are variants of the base-Blue decks.
For an event like this, I also review the MTGO metagame. Time permitting, you can play in events and/or watch the replays of Top 8 matches. When time does not permit, you can check out the metagame reviews. Craig’s Online Outlook column appears on SGC every Monday, and Frank Karsten’s Online Tech appears on Wednesday over on the flagship site.
Online, the pre-Future Sight metagame looked like this:
Dragonstorm
U/B/w Dralnu
Gruul
U/R Perilous Storm
Pickles
Izzetron
Black Rack
Dredge
Angelfire
Now, the online metagame has to be taken with a grain of salt. First off, Dragonstorm is relatively cheap to obtain, while some of the decks with a bunch of duals cost a lot more. Online tournaments are often fewer rounds – which means that an inconsistent deck can make Top 8 more consistently than it would at an eight- or nine-round Regionals.
The other point to remember is that MTGO has some weird rules. The time clock is one part, but the fact that MTGO does not allow you to simply state that you are repeating a sequence 12.546 billion times is a much more significant problem. Combos like Project X’s life gain simply do not work on MTGO. I once watched a player get the combo going, and managed, by clicking furiously for 18 minutes, to get his life up to 84. He still almost lost a damage race to a beatdown deck – and lost the match by timing out. In paper, that would never have happened.
Watching old formats, however influential, is no substitute for a real event. Fortunately, we do have the results of one event – the StarCityGames.com $1K held on May 25th. Future Sight was legal in that event, and the event ran seven rounds, which makes it significant. The results are here, and here:
2 Gruul (one won the event)
Project X (second)
Glittering Wish Control
U/R/B Reanimator
Dragonstorm
Korlash Control*
Pickles
Note – this player apparently made Top 8 without anyone noticing that a critical interaction did not actually work. Check out Evan Erwin Magic Show from last Friday for details.
The results of this tournament vary a lot from the online metagame. On MTGO, the big decks are Dragonstorm and Dralnu. Here, one Dragonstorm deck appeared in the Top 8, while the Pickles deck was almost mono-Blue. Dralnu, with its signature Mystical Teachings engine, was a no show.
At least, it did not Top 8.
That’s it for the “proven” decklists and archetypes. The next step is to review the articles on the format. StarCityGames.com makes pushes hard for tech for upcoming tournaments, and a lot of writers will touch on the format. The trick is separating the wheat from the chaff here – a fair amount of the crystal ball gazing we writers do is useless.
The premium writers tend to shine, here. The best at least have time to playtest. Usually. Still, I have gotten the most value out of Premium in the run-up to Constructed events like Regionals and States. You want to read every article with a grain of salt – but you really do want to read the articles.
Yes, some writers have secret tech that they won’t / can’t reveal. Some claim secret tech, simply to hide the fact that they have no better ideas than anyone else. In the past, I have had tech – mainly because I playtested with Adrian Sullivan and others, and got to see their decks. I don’t want to reveal their work – that’s their right, both to take opponents by surprise and to write their own articles. This year, however, I haven’t playtested with anyone, so I couldn’t reveal tech even if I wanted to.
However, after reading whatever I can about the format, here’s what I have gleaned.
* Several writers say Dragonstorm is the best deck. Some of those comments may be tongue-in-cheek; some may be serious. I do think that the consensus is that Dragonstorm is the best combo deck in the field.
* The new Dredge deck featuring Bridge from Below is playable, although it requires some skill to play. Enough writers have addressed it that you should probably expect it at Regionals.
* The best beatdown deck is Gruul. Boros has been destroyed by Sulfur Elemental. (Note: one Boros deck won the Last Chance qualifier at Kyoto, and if enough writers dismiss it, players may remove the sideboard hate, which means it may be playable again.)
* Control decks are potent, although the field is split between Dralnu and more mono-Blue Counterspell decks.
* Delay works in aggro-control decks, but no one claims a tested version. The most obvious, of course, is a modification of Scryb and Sprite.
* Dralnu (which does not actually run Dralnu, of course) is still good.
* No one really knows.
I’m writing this late Sunday / Monday morning. I’m sure a lot more will be written this week. Kyle Sanchez, Nick Eisel and Naoki Shimizu have Regionals articles up so far – more will follow, but I have a deadline.
So, after reviewing tournaments and reading everything I can find time for, here’s the list of possible archetypes:
Gruul
Project X
Glittering Wish Control
U/R/B Reanimator
Dragonstorm
Pickles
Mono-Black Rack
Scryb and Force
U/B/w Dralnu
U/R Perilous Storm
Izzetron
Black Rack
Dredge
Angelfire
Simic Tron
I have also been experimenting with some ideas – everything from Wildfire-based LD to a Mesa Enchantress / Retether combo to a bizarre Coalition Victory / Scion of the Ur-Dragon deck. None of these is even close to ready from prime time – and probably never will be.
I just realized that I did not mention the possibility of getting deck tech from a pro who has actually spent a lot of time working on the format. Of course, if you have the opportunity to do that, go for it. Most people do not.
Winnowing
If I were an attorney forced to defend someone for choosing any deck listed above, I could easily craft a credible argument. Wizard’s policy of having a lot of Tier 2 decks, instead of a couple of obvious Tier 1 decks, is paying off. However, that means that you will not have a simple choice among a narrow range of options. Choosing a deck nowadays requires a lot of winnowing.
The first choice is between combo, control, aggro-control, and beatdown. First, eliminate any of these that you do not feel comfortable playing. If you don’t mind the type, then look at the specific decks in the category. Personally, I have played them all. My first Top 8 ever came playing a U/W control deck. Most of my most recent online event wins have come with beatdown. My most ever Top 8 pins came with G/B Survival – an aggro/control deck. I won my first Magic trophy on the back of a Vintage Pandeburst homebrew.
In short, that doesn’t help.
Combo:
Let’s look at combo decks in detail.
Right now, the best (and most consistent, which isn’t saying much) combo deck is Dragonstorm. It’s the same old deck, with one or two Pact of Negation wedged in somewhere. I actually have the deck online, and have played it, but it is not particularly exciting. I don’t drive home thinking about getting in a few games after dinner, the way I do with some other decks. Nor do I find myself thinking about plays and tricks for this deck during my commutes. That’s a sure sign that I’m not enthralled with the deck, and probably shouldn’t waste my time playing it at Regionals.
I have goofed around with a few other combo decks, including those involving Ignite Memories, Bloodbond March, Eye of the Storm and Claws of Gix / Hatching Plans. None of those seem better than Dragonstorm – and none seem to have the consistency to survive a nine-round tournament.
Aggro:
The number one aggro deck is Gruul. I have played Gruul a lot. I understand the deck. I know how most matchups play out. My version runs maindeck Scorched Rusalkas, which are important in fizzling Tendrils of Corruption and removing Bridges form Below. Sure, Gruul might be highly expected, and a lot of decks will have sideboard tech against it – but that hate is not as good as the deck.
An aggro deck like this has another advantage – games tend to be short. That means that you have fewer turns in which to make a mistake. When you haven’t been playing and playtesting enough, having fewer opportunities to screw up is a significant advantage.
Gruul is one of my top few choices, and the deck I would probably play if I really wanted to qualify. However, I already have a sponsored trip to Nationals – as a judge. I will try my best to win, of course, but my primary purpose is to have fun at this tournament, so I may play something else.
Two other decks are worth considering. Boros does take a huge hit from Sulfur Elementals, but it is still very fast and consistent. More importantly, it is less expected. Most people will stock their sideboard with anti-Gruul cards. Boros might be able to dodge the hate right into the Top 8. Zoo, the other option, is also a fast, potent deck. However, more of the anti-Gruul hate will hit Zoo, so that deck might have a harder time sneaking past it.
Control:
The days of control decks that simply counter every threat played, then refill their hand with instant-speed card drawing end of turn are gone. Modern control decks mix counters, removal and their own clocks. In playing a modern control deck, you have to know which threats need to be countered, and which you can play around. That requires playtesting. I don’t think you can be successful playing a Dralnu deck cold. Since I haven’t practiced with serious Dralnu decks (my MTGO version suffers because I have too few Teferis and Damnations, and have to substitute in sub-optimal cards), I foresee a long, frustrating day with lots of swearing at my misplays if I pack a control deck.
If you are prepared to play one, a control deck is a fine choice. I’m not prepared.
Aggro-Control:
Looking over the decks that I have most enjoyed over the years, I see a lot of aggro control decks. G/B Survival, Turboland, Rock variants, Enchantress, Stacker II – they all run a mix of control, beatdown and a often sprout a touch of combo-kill as an alternative win condition. My casual and multi-player decks fall into the same pattern.
Personally, I enjoy playing Rock-like decks. In this format, that probably means decks like Project X or Evan Erwin Glittering Control.
A month ago, I talked about adding Bitter Ordeal to Project X. I’m still considering that, but the mana cost of both comboing and casting Ordeal is fairly high. However, Project X, by itself, is still a very powerful deck even without the ordeal kill. If, as pundits keep predicting, aggro is very common at Regionals, a deck with Wall of Roots and Loxodon Hierarchs is very strong. The infinite life combo is also a strong answer to Dragonstorm – and even without the combo, an Essence Warden alone can gain enough life to keep from losing to Dragonstorm on the turn it was cast.
If the goal is to play a deck with Wall of Roots and Loxodon Hierarchs, then another option is something like Evan Erwin Glittering Wish control. It has the same pinpoint discard and beatdown elements, but replaces the combo elements with Damnations and so forth. This is, in many respects, the most Rock like deck, and the one I am most likely to adopt and modify.
I think it is highly likely that I will modify the deck. However, I don’t recommend it, unless you playtest it a lot, as is, first. A good deck has a tuned set of threats, a tuned mana/threat curve, and a tuned manabase. Changes are likely to disrupt those balances and make the deck less consistent. If you want proof, read the forum responses from some of the articles where writers took a winning deck, “fixed” it, then had no success with their versions.
That said, sometimes unexpected changes to an otherwise stock archetype can catch opponents completely unprepared. One of my favorite memories is having Mike Hron, playing Turboland, keep only one Island untapped when casting Morphling. I was playing Rock, and he had an Annul to stop Pernicious Deed. I, however, had sideboarded in Armageddon. I achieved complete surprise, and won an apparently unwinnable game.
Does that mean that I want to splash for Boom/Bust in Erwin’s control deck? Not exactly. I want to splash for the unexpected. For example, I noticed that Glittering Wish can fetch any multicolored card – which could include an alternative win condition like Coalition Victory. I spent the drive home from work thinking about a five-color deck that ran Sliver Overlord or Scion of the Ur-Dragon, land fetch and five-color good stuff. It would work – in a world without either Dragonstorm or Detritivore. Having both makes the deck unplayable.
Probably.
I’d include a decklist here, if it sucked even a little less.
Tournament Prep
A little advice: Playtest your deck. Playtest sideboarded. Know your deck inside and out. Get enough sleep. Eat a decent breakfast. Etc. etc.
We all know how often some or all of that is impossible. Do the best you can.
If you can only do one thing, however, I strongly recommend you decide on the deck you want to play, type out a decklist and double count the cards before the tournament. As a judge, I can confidently say that the most common, avoidable method of getting a game loss is decklist errors. Every single Constructed tournament, someone list 56 cards, or no lands at all, and loses game 1 of round 2.
I can also say that, although a very few people do overcome that game loss and make Top 8, the correlation between decklist errors and appearance in the side events is quite high.
Just a recommendation.
Next week, I will have had time to play a number of matches, and can give some real solid advice about the Regionals metagame – at which time it will be as useful as predictions about last year’s Superbowl.
Whatever you play, good luck at Regionals.
PRJ