With the PTQ season in full swing, I feel it’s always important to reflect back on what has already happened. Last season, even a brief look at PTQ results could tell you that Faeries was far and away the best deck. With its enormous popularity, you would almost certainly have to play against the Fae if you wanted to qualify for Berlin.
Here is the breakdown for all the PTQ results I could find:
Blue Control
– Mono Blue (or close to it) Faeries: 44 PTQ Top 8s, 7 of those are wins, 2 GP Top 8s, 1 GP Top 16
– PLU (or Faerie hybrid): 4 PTQ Top 8s, 1 GP Top 8
– UB Faeries (Bitterblossom/Chrome Mox main): 2 PTQ Top 8s
– Tezzeret: 3 PTQ Top 8s, 1 of those is a win
– Gifts Fae: 1 GP Top 16
– UB Tron: 1 PTQ Top 8
– UW Tron: 1 PTQ win
Overall, Blue-based control accounts for 43% of PTQ Top 8s, but they have 53% of the wins. I am not going to count the GP in these percentages, as technically it is a different tournament with a much different structure, even if GPs are just glorified PTQs.
Aggro
– Zoo: 9 PTQ Top 8s, 1 of those is a win, 1 GP Top 16
– Mono-Red Burn: 9 PTQ Top 8s, 1 of those is a win
– Adrian Red: 1 PTQ Top 8
– Affinity: 11 PTQ Top 8s, 2 of those are wins, 2 GP Top 8s, 2 GP Top 16s
– AIR: 1 PTQ Top 8
Aggro decks compose 23% of the Top 8s, and 23% of the wins.
Combo
– TEPS: 9 PTQ Top 8s, 2 GP Top 8s, 1 GP win, 1 GP Top 16
– Elves: 6 PTQ Top 8s
– Swans: 4 PTQ Top 8s
– Dredge: 2 PTQ Top 8s
– Hulk: 2 PTQ Top 8s
The various types of combo take up 17% of the Top 8 slots, but have yet to take home an invite.
Midrange Green
– GB Loam/Cloud: 11 PTQ Top 8s, 1 of those is a win, 2 GP Top 16s
– GB Loamless Cloud: 3 PTQ Top 8s
– GB Aggro Loam: 3 PTQ Top 8s, 1 of those is a win, 1 GP Top 8
– Astral Slide: 2 PTQ Top 8s
– Bant: 2 PTQ Top 8s
– Gifts Rock: 1 PTQ Top 8
– WG Haterator: 1 PTQ Top 8
Green decks are 19% of the Top 8s, but only win 12% of the time.
Random
– Martyr: 1 PTQ win
– Ken Adams.dec: 1 PTQ Top 8
I have gone on record in the past about how I dislike being results-oriented. That generally means in one instance, whereas the above is enough data to be able to infer certain things. For example, just looking at the single PTQ from Mobile, Alabama, you might decide that UW Tron is a good deck. After all, it won the entire tournament. However, if you look at all of the above results, you see that just isn’t the case. You can’t exactly infer that UW Tron is a bad deck either, since you have no idea how many people have played UW Tron in PTQs. If that was the only UW Tron deck to enter a PTQ and it won that tournament, you would be unable to tell whether or not Tron was a good deck or not. There just isn’t enough information to be able to draw any solid conclusions.
As another example, take the PTQ in the southwest that had six Fae decks in Top 8. If you drew conclusions from that PTQ alone, you would think Faeries was the best deck by far. However, there were other PTQs that had zero Faerie decks in Top 8. You simply cannot draw conclusions based on the results of one match, or even one tournament. While it is fairly clear that Faeries is the best deck, you would still be wrong to base your conclusions on that single PTQ.
Paulo presented a pretty good example of this. He witnessed one player activate Blinkmoth Nexus, attack with it, and then post combat cast Pyroclasm to kill all of the creatures, including his own Nexus. The Nexus player realized his own mistake but could do nothing about it. He went on to win the game at two life because he never played another non-basic land, while his opponent held a Molten Rain at the end of the game. Just because your bad play won you the game doesn’t necessarily mean it was correct to make that play.
Likewise, just because a bad deck won a tournament doesn’t mean that deck is good. In Magic, there exists a certain amount of luck, and you have to take into account all the things that could happen for someone to win a match of Magic. Someone can win a tournament because the tournament is small and therefore easy, that person could be better than all of their opponents, they could get lucky, or they could get all good matchups.
Even choosing something like Martyr Proclamation could end up being a great decision, despite the fact that, according to the above results, your odds of winning a PTQ with Martyr aren’t very high. You could just end up playing against burn every round of the PTQ, but that doesn’t mean that Martyr is a good choice, as the odds of playing against a ton of good matchups in a row aren’t very high. Martyr also has some unwinnable matchups, which is something to be scared of once you get into the single elimination Top 8.
Even something like All-In Red can cast a turn 1 Deus of Calamity every game. If you are able to pull that off, you would probably win your tournament, but that doesn’t mean that it is likely. If it does happen, that doesn’t mean that it always will, nor does it mean that AIR is a good deck.
Anyway, enough with my rant, and onto the real discussion.
Much like last season, Blue Control is the big winner thus far. Faeries is definitely the Blue deck you should be playing (or at least making sure you beat), even if just based on numbers alone. The rest of the Blue Control decks seem like worse versions of Faeries. Tron especially has worse matchups across the field, which could explain for it being nearly nonexistent.
Burn, Zoo, and Affinity are roughly tied for the aggro deck of choice, although Affinity seems to be picking up, while Zoo is on the decline. It doesn’t surprise me, since Zoo is much worse against the Fae than Affinity is. Burn seems like a deck that will never quite disappear, despite it being a poor choice if your goal is to win the tournament. Adrian’s Red deck seems like a pretty good deck in this environment, if aggro is your thing.
AIR having only one Top 8 to its name is somewhat surprising, given how many people I have seen or heard of playing the deck. That goes to show just how abysmal the deck really is. Burn is another cheap Red deck that has actually put up results, so maybe the AIR players should be playing that or Affinity instead.
It seems like combo is the way to go if your goal is only to make the Top 8, but winning once you’re there becomes more difficult (unless you are named LSV). Swans, Dredge, and Hulk all made Top 8 in previous PTQs, but rarely get played in the present. TEPS is obviously the new kid on the block, but that also means that Elves may make a comeback.
GB Loam is the clear winner in the midrange section. Cloud with Loam seems much worse than Cloud without it. MJ’s “Aggro” Loam will probably eclipse the Control Loam decks in time. Slide, Bant, Gifts, and Haterator are decks that you might find success with, but don’t count on it. Chances are you will eventually get outgunned by one of the more powerful decks.
Aggro seems to be the consistent choice, as it is roughly 1/4th of the Top 8s and also wins 1/4th of the PTQs. Midrange decks, like the combo decks, have a harder time winning the tournament than making Top 8 consistently. Faeries has a better conversion rate and better results overall, but some people just don’t like playing with Islands.
No matter what you like gaming with, it seems like Extended has a clear best archetype for each category. At the next PTQs, I fully expect to see Faeries, Affinity, TEPS, Loam, Burn, and Elves out in full force, roughly in that order. Nothing besides maybe Zoo seems like it’s good enough to make Top 8 of a seven-round tournament. If you can somehow design your deck to beat those six decks, you will probably win the PTQ.
Creatures (11)
Lands (24)
Spells (25)
Faeries should be splashing Ancient Grudge as a concession to Affinity and possibly the mirror. Choke is another concern, although it is easily remedied. With AIR putting up terrible results, there should be less Blood Moons in the tournament to make your Oboros look foolish. A few Trickbinds are probably necessary to fight TEPS, but the rest of your matchups should be good.
Creatures (23)
Lands (18)
Spells (19)
Sideboard
Affinity has a lot of close matchups. TEPS is won or lost on the die roll, while Loam and Faeries are dependant on how prepared for the matchup they are. Obviously Ancient Grudge is the defining card, but Delay is a solid answer to it. Elves is generally a terrible matchup, as they can goldfish on turn 3 and have recurring Viridian Shamans. Burn is a turn too slow to race you, and can really only put up a fight if they have some sick sideboard cards.
Lands (18)
Spells (42)
- 2 Tendrils of Agony
- 2 Sleight of Hand
- 4 Peer Through Depths
- 4 Desperate Ritual
- 4 Mind's Desire
- 4 Seething Song
- 4 Remand
- 2 Electrolyze
- 4 Rite of Flame
- 4 Lotus Bloom
- 4 Ponder
- 4 Manamorphose
Sideboard
TEPS is solid against Faeries as long as you can keep making land drops. Fae usually has a slow clock and no real disruption for your storm spell, so you have plenty of time to set up a great hand that can fight through their counters. Affinity revolves around the die roll mainly, although post board you have enough cards that can give you the turn you need like Remand, Echoing Truth, or Shattering Spree. You just have to hope they don’t draw a bunch of Thoughtseizes. The Loam matchup also hinges on the die roll, mostly because they have a much better shot if they get an extra turn to cast some Raven’s Crimes. Burn goldfishes a turn too slow, but Elves is a turn too fast.
Creatures (11)
Lands (27)
Spells (22)
- 2 Death Cloud
- 4 Life from the Loam
- 3 Putrefy
- 3 Damnation
- 3 Slaughter Pact
- 3 Thoughtseize
- 3 Raven's Crime
- 1 Worm Harvest
Sideboard
Loam can be great against Faeries, Affinity, Burn, Elves, and TEPS, but it all depends on how you build your deck. You can only metagame against a few things at once with GB, but can’t beat them all. Think about what you expect to play against and learn how to take a loss to something you chose not to prepare for.
Creatures (32)
- 4 Llanowar Elves
- 4 Wirewood Symbiote
- 4 Wirewood Hivemaster
- 1 Eternal Witness
- 1 Viridian Shaman
- 4 Birchlore Rangers
- 1 Mirror Entity
- 4 Heritage Druid
- 4 Nettle Sentinel
- 1 Regal Force
- 4 Elvish Visionary
Lands (17)
Spells (11)
Elves is a fantastic foil to TEPS and Affinity. However, it is unsurprising that Elves has yet to win a PTQ considering the sheer amount of Fae. Burn is usually a good matchup with a couple of Forge[/author]-Tender”]Burrenton [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]-Tenders in the sideboard. Loam and Fae are the true bad matchups, as they have so many problem cards and there isn’t a very effective way to fight things like Darkblast or Engineered Explosives.
Creatures (12)
Lands (21)
Spells (27)
- 4 Incinerate
- 2 Seal of Fire
- 4 Lava Spike
- 3 Sulfuric Vortex
- 4 Magma Jet
- 4 Shrapnel Blast
- 1 Chromatic Star
- 4 Rift Bolt
- 1 Shard Volley
Sideboard
Burn seems like a terrible choice, as it isn’t very good against the other top decks. Some sideboard cards can help against Elves, Loam, and TEPS, but that doesn’t really stop your poor game 1s against those decks. Faeries and TEPS are basically complete nightmares.
Hopefully these numbers help you see Extended more clearly. Perhaps before your next tournament, you will think twice about the choices you are making, both in regards to your deck and single card choices. If your goal is truly to win the tournament, you should probably play one of the big six, or at least be packing a deck that you know for sure beats at least four of the six. The problem with that is the big six are tournament proven, whereas your pet deck probably isn’t.
Either way, good luck.
GerryT