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Black Magic – Nationals, and Brad Nelson

Visit the StarCityGames.com booth at GP: Boston!
Wednesday, July 29th – In today’s edition of Black Magic, Sam reflects on his deck choice and performance at last weekend’s U.S. Nationals. While a 10th place finish is hardly shabby, he knows that an extra push could have taken him all the way. He also interrogates Top 4 competitor Brad Nelson over his performance, and discusses the shape of the emerging metagame.

Nationals was fun. I left for KC uncertain as to whether I was going to play Faeries or Elves. Fortunately, I was going in a car full of people who were trying to grind, so I had to get to the site early on Thursday. While there, I played some fun games against Evan Erwin shortly before he won a grinder. I played Elves against his Five-Color Control deck, with Brian Kibler watching behind me for a little while at the beginning. These games showed me that I definitely wanted to play Faeries. The fact that he crushed me was secondary. There were moments in the games where I wasn’t exactly sure how I should be playing against his deck, and that was unacceptable compared to my knowledge of the Faerie deck. Having made my decision, I didn’t feel like I needed to test any more, and I went into Nationals having only played against a single deck with Great Sable Stag and having never played some of the cards in my deck (Warren Weirding and Gargoyle Castle). Despite this, I felt much better prepared and more knowledgeable of the format that I did for last year’s Nationals.

I started out 4-0, beating two Five-Color Control decks, Kithkin, and Turbo Fog. My only game loss was against Turbo Fog because it took me too long to put him on that deck rather than on Time Sieve and adjust my plan accordingly, and I wasted too many valuable Spellstutter Sprites. Seeing how popular Five-Color Control was, I felt very good about my deck choice. I knew they would all have Great Sable Stag, but it was becoming clear that that wasn’t enough and I was still substantially favored in the matchup. I would usually win game 1, and then I had Thoughtseize and Warren Weirding to fight the Stags that they may not draw. The Weirdings allowed me to continue to play the control role that I try to play in games 2 and 3 of that matchup, which is necessary to avoid getting destroyed by Volcanic Fallout, and things were looking up.

In the Limited portion neither of my drafts went the way I wanted. I couldn’t find a land cycler later than fifth pick, so my strategy of drafting five-color with no two-drops that leaned entirely on land cycling didn’t really work out. Despite that, I was able to 2-1 both drafts and escape with an 8-2 record going into the last 4 rounds. I felt very good about my ability to win 3 more matches with Faeries. My biggest fear was Conley Woods deck that had been doing extremely well on the weekend. I’d gotten the list from one of its pilots, Brad Nelson, the night before for my friend Jasper so that he could play it in a PTQ, and it looked like something of a nightmare between the Cloudthreshers, Fallouts, Kitchen Finks, Bloodbraid Elves, Putrid Leech, and Great Sable Stags. In my feature match in the Limited portion against Brad, I joked that I wasn’t expecting to lose to Putrid Leech until Constructed.

In the first round of the final stretch, I was paired against Brad Nelson and I was suddenly a lot less optimistic about my Top 8 chances. Fortunately, he mulled to 4 in game 1 and Puppeteer Clique managed to steal game 3, and I escaped that round (and gave Brad his only loss in the Standard portion). Next round I was paired up against Brett Piazza playing the same deck, and I didn’t feel like I’d be able to steal another win. This round I was the guy taking mulligans, so it wasn’t really close. His Cloudthresher crushed me.

I was disheartened, but I still only needed to win 2 more matches, and then I got paired against Chris Lachmann playing Blightning. I possibly didn’t optimally use my Mistbind Cliques in the matchup, but I don’t think I could have won it anyway (don’t think like that), and I was out of Top 8 contention unless everyone decided to play instead of draw in.

I ended up finishing 10th, and despite the 32 Stags, I would have felt reasonably comfortable in the Top 8 if I could dodge Brad and Brett. The number of Stags didn’t particularly surprise me (see my M10 set review, where I listed Stag as the first, third, and fifth best Green card, though really it should have been first, second, and third). I didn’t play Faeries because I expected Stag to be underrepresented. I played Faeries because I expected Five-Color to be overrepresented, and for them to expect that they could beat Faeries just because of that card.

I was happy with my choice and my list. I still hate Sower of Temptation. I played one in my sideboard because all the decks that have been doing well have had access to 4, and I thought there might be a chance that I was missing something. I wish it had been a 3rd Puppeteer Clique.

If I had to play again, or if I had to play in another Standard tournament next week, I would play Faeries again, but I would not recommend the deck to anyone else. Conley Woods deck is awesome against Faeries and just a great deck, so now is not really the time to play Faeries.

Fortunately, Brad Nelson decided to come with me back to Madison so that he could carpool with us to Grand Prix: Boston, having decided to attend only because of his 4th place Nationals finish, and the prohibitive cost of flying anywhere from Fargo inspired him to look for a cheaper way to attend the GP. This gives me to opportunity to interview him about Nationals and the deck he played, which should be extremely significant in the coming weeks in Standard.

On Saturday night he called me and asked me to help him prepare for his Top 8 mirror match. I agreed and was join by some better Jund experts from Madison, Jasper Johnson-Epstein and Brian Kowal, to help out. Jasper helped gun games, and all of us brainstormed possible sideboard strategies. This deck has one of the best mirror matches I’ve seen recently. Some mirrors, like Combo Elves, are just dreadful, with no particular way to out play or out sideboard your opponent, but in this matchup there are many different possible angles of attack and viable strategies and counter strategies. Different sideboard plans are right or wrong depending on what they’re doing, and while we started off cutting Volcanic Fallout and bringing in Thought Hemorrhage, we ended up doing something very different.

Sam: So Brad, how did you end up sideboarding against Brett?

Brad: We decided to take the control route and we went -1 Caldera Hellion (which was probably wrong), -1 Volcanic Fallout, -3 Maelstrom Pulse, -4 Shriekmaw, -2 Cloudthresher, +3 Deathmark, +4 Anathemancer, +4 Great Sable Stag. That was the strategy for game 2, and we were prepared to adapt depending on whether he brought in Cloudthresher. Game 2 gave very little information except that he had Deathmark, which was expected, so nothing changed for game 3. Game 1 was the interesting game, the other two were blowouts.

Sam: How much do you think that the way you sideboarded compared to the way he sideboarded contributed to those blowouts?

Brad: We were both Jund decks and our initial strategy was to take out Fallouts against other Jund decks, but with my having tested and not him, we figured out that Fallout was good in this matchup and he would think that I wouldn’t have it, but with him expecting me to cut it, there was potential for it to be a huge blowout. Once he saw it I would probably board it out for the next game, but that didn’t happen until game 3.

Sam: How did the match go?

Brad: Game 1 we both gained a lot of life off Finks trading, and eventually he played an end-of-turn Cloudthreshered to take the aggressive role, which was wrong. He exposed himself by going for it early rather than saving it for value out of a flash plus block, and opened himself up to a Shriekmaw. He evokes a Shriekmaw to attack, but it wasn’t lethal and I was able to evoke Shriekmaw to kill his Thresher and play a Finks to get back to a healthy life total. Later I flashed in a Cloudthresher to kill an attacker and take the game.

Game 2 He mulled to 5 and I killed him on turn 6.

Game 3 He mulled to 6 and we both played a couple of Vivid lands until I played a turn 3 Great Sable Stag. He played Bloodbraid Elf into Kitchen Finks and attacked. I took it and played a Vivid Marsh and passed. Thinking I didn’t have Fallout he played another Bloodbraid Elf, whiffed, hitting a Deathmark on the cascade, and then I played Fallout when he attacked. I untapped and played Mulldrifter and went aggressive with the Stag, at which point the game was just over.

Sam: What suggestions would you make for changes to the deck in the future, first to the maindeck?

Brad: It needs more land, 25 or 26 would be better. Now that people know about Hellion and the metagame has shifted away from Kithkin, there should be one less Hellion and one less Shriekmaw for two more land: 1 Twilight Mire and 1 Vivid Marsh.

Sam: What do you think about shifting toward maindeck Anathemancer?

Brad: I could definitely see 3 main, but I wouldn’t want the full 4. I could see cutting a Maelstrom Pulse, and I could see cutting Cloudthresher, since I expect a lot less Faeries in the coming PTQs.

Sam: What about the sideboard?

Brad: If you cut Cloudthresher, they have to move to the board, but I could see only having access to 2. I’d like a way to fight the graveyard in the mirror. I think Puppeteer Clique is better than Necrogenesis because Necrogenesis is too defensive and blown out by sweepers. Puppeteer Clique is also good against Five-Color Control. There should be 1 Hellion, 1 Anathemancer, 2 Cloudthresher, 3 Deathmark, 2 Puppeteer Clique, 2 Thought Hemorrhage, 4 Great Sable Stag.

Sam: You mentioned after the Top 8 that you felt like your deck was disadvantaged against Yurchick. How do you think the matchup against Five-Color Control is before and after these changes?

Brad: I think land development is a huge factor in this matchup, and having the extra lands will help. The cards we cut aren’t important in the matchup, while Anathemancer will be a huge factor in deciding game 1. Puppeteer Clique also adds an important element to the deck, allowing you to turn Mulldrifters and Broodmate Dragons against the Five-Color Control player. I think the matchup in Nationals was terrible because of the 24 land. Now that the list is out there it needs to stay fresh, don’t play the exact 75 from Nationals. After modifying the deck I think you can be pretty even with Five-Color Control; it’s hard to be a favorite because of Cruel Ultimatum, but it crushes aggro decks.

Sam: What’s the worst matchup?

Brad: Blightning is the only deck that’s favored against you. Time Sieve probably beats you, but I’ve never played against nor seen it played. I don’t recommend playing that deck though.

Brad feels like the deck’s position in the metagame is opposite where Patrick Chapin put it in his article. He thinks it’s better against the field than Five-Color Control, but that Five-Color Control is probably slightly advantaged against it. It should be very good against the other Jund decks, like Brian Robinson’s deck that Patrick listed, so it might still be a good way to keep beating the other decks in the field while punishing the decks that try to prey on Five-Color’s dominance, like Jund and Faeries.

In the coming weeks I’ll be out of Standard, working on getting caught up on M10 Limited for my extremely busy travel schedule for the next month and a half (Boston, Brighton, Gen Con, Bangkok, Niigata, Prague), so expect some thoughts on Limited or the Grand Prixs in coming articles.

Thanks for reading…

Sam