While most of the community is still reeling from the Modern Bombshell dropped on us last week (a bombshell of bliss!), I couldn’t help but notice that the Standard format is quietly approaching “healthy.” Who knows? Maybe there is just a bunch of sick variance this week that randomly lines up to produce the order we seem to see around us.* On the other hand, maybe the metagame really has had some time to adjust. Sure, Caw-Blade got a head start from being the most developed strategy by far, as well as one that people were used to playing. It even might be the best deck, but as far as metagames go, this one seems healthy, dynamic, alive, and kicking!
We aren’t just seeing variety (though we do see that too). We are seeing week-to-week fluctuations in a diverse metagame that always seems to be so different locally. It isn’t just that Americans are all one way, Euros another. In fact, this past weekend, it was the Euros that showed the stronger Caw-Blade presence, while the American scene was bested by U/R Twin. This rapidly evolving metagame definitely has a bit of a cyclical element to it, a feature of balance metagames that involve a number of strategies with strengths and weaknesses.
On top of this, rogue decks seem to consistently popping up and achieving some success. Some of these decks will fall by the wayside (like Jund), while others will start making regular appearances (like Bant Pod or Value R/U/G). This weekend was no different, with a new G/W Aggro and U/G Skin-Blade both making their debut, as well as finishes from the oft-forgotten Eldrazi Green and Goblins archetypes.
Today, I will be aggregating the results from the top 16 of SCG Boston, the top 8 of British Nationals, and the day 1 metagame from British Nationals, using the formula:
50% Boston + 25% British Top 8 + 25% British Day 1
This method is somewhat reminiscent of Hall of Famer Frank Karsten’s method of calculating the “winner’s circle metagame,” at least in spirit. While this will not predict what percentage of decks actually get played in the Swiss of an open event, it should give some reasonable idea of what is winning. One factor that complicates things slightly is that the American metagame is always a bit ahead of the European metagame, likely as a result of the SCG Open series. That said, the results from British Nationals seem to suggest a closing of the gap, as what was once a 3-week gap is barely a 1-week gap at this point.
This has nothing to do with the skill of the players, and is more a reflection of fashion than anything. If you were playing in Great Britain and you prepared for the US metagame, you would not be as well prepared as if you could accurately gauge the local one. That said, both affect each other, which is probably why the gap seems to be closing. Here are the results from each of those events:
SCG Open Boston Top 16
6 U/r Twin
3 Caw-Blade
2 Valakut
2 U/B Control
1 Mono-R
1 Goblins
1 G/W Aggro
British Nationals Top 8
2 Caw-Blade
2 Mono-R
1 U/B Control
1 Eldrazi Green
1 Vampires
1 U/G Skin-Blade
|
British Nationals Archetypes |
% of Day 1 Metagame |
|
Caw-Blade |
22% |
|
Valakut |
15% |
|
Mono-R |
11% |
|
11% |
|
|
U/B Control |
11% |
|
4% |
|
|
Tezzeret |
4% |
|
U/R Twin |
3% |
|
B/R Vampires |
3% |
|
Mill |
3% |
|
Ascension |
2% |
|
Eldrazi Green |
2% |
|
Mono-B Control |
2% |
|
Other |
6% |
As we can see, Great Britain’s field seems to be a response to the week of US Nationals, whereas the US metagame had this same response a week ago and is already reacting. The biggest difference though, seems to be the near lack of U/R Twin in Great Britain’s meta, while in America the popularity of Twin and Valakut, and the decline of Tempered Steel and Caw-Blade are pushing the Birthing Pod decks out. Here is the combined metagame:
Winner’s Circle Metagame:
|
Archetypes |
% of Metagame |
|
Caw-Blade |
21% |
|
U/R Twin |
20% |
|
Mono-R |
12% |
|
U/B Control |
11% |
|
Valakut |
10% |
|
Vampires |
4% |
|
Goblins |
3% |
|
G/W Aggro |
3% |
|
U/G Skin-Blade |
3% |
|
Eldrazi Green |
3% |
|
3% |
|
|
1% |
|
|
Mill |
1% |
|
Other |
5% |
Now that is a healthy metagame! When was the last time we saw two best decks that were both about only 20%, followed by three more decks that were all about 10%? Amusingly, the British day 1 metagame had a similar phenomenon, though with a different mix of decks. Let’s take a look at where each of these archetypes is at!
Creatures (9)
Planeswalkers (6)
Lands (27)
Spells (18)
Sideboard
Creatures (9)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (27)
Spells (20)
There are a number of little differences between the various Caw-Blade decks at this point, but the creature selection has settled down. Blade Splicer, Mirran Crusader, Hero of Bladehold, and Spellskite have mostly fallen by the wayside, with Consecrated Sphinx, Emeria Angel, Squadron Hawk, Phantasmal Image (aka Hawk #5, since you copy your opponent’s) and occasionally Sun Titan likely to continue their current popularity. The biggest change we see in Gerry Thompson build is cutting the actual Blade element and fully embracing four Jace Belerens. Sajgalik has just one Jace, giving him room for Sword of Feast and Famine and maindeck Timely Reinforcements. While most players will still have Sword of Feast and Famine, next week, Gerry does have an interesting theory that the amount of Nature’s Claim and other artifact kill spells discourage playing Swords right now. How many players will adopt this?
Gerry relies primarily on Oblivion Ring to deal with troublesome permanents, whereas Sajgalik makes heavy use of Into the Roil. Another difference is Gerry’s use of Mental Missteps over industry standard Spell Pierces (a variation that Gerry has often been partial to). Finally, Gerry takes advantage of a Torpor Orb sideboard, most likely a response to Birthing Pod and Valakut. Torpor Orb against Birthing Pod is especially strong in Gerry’s build, as Nature’s Claim is pretty terrible against his Sword-less maindeck. Torpor Orb against Valakut brings the need for Oblivion Ring over Into the Roil as an option. Into the Roil is a great card to be sure, but for Torpor Orb to be effective against Valakut, you need to be able to actually kill the Titan after they play it. If you just keep bouncing it, it eventually gets to attack and trigger. The whole point of Torpor Orb is so that you don’t need to counter Primeval Titan. If you can’t kill it, though, you will need to counter it anyway.
It is tempting to just look on the US data and focus on the narrative of Caw-Blade not being the top deck of the weekend. After all, it is definitely refreshing to hear about someone that is actually above the Caw. However, the more full picture is the one that is most useful to us. Caw-Blade is going to remain one of the top tier strategies until the rotation, but at least it isn’t even clear that it’s the best deck anymore. In fact, if this trend continues, Caw-Blade may actually dip even further next week.
Meanwhile, here is the biggest mover of the weekend, U/R Twin.
Creatures (4)
Lands (23)
Spells (33)
- 2 Mana Leak
- 4 Ponder
- 2 Into the Roil
- 4 Dispel
- 4 Splinter Twin
- 4 Preordain
- 1 Twisted Image
- 2 Mental Misstep
- 4 Gitaxian Probe
- 2 Dismember
- 4 Shrine of Piercing Vision
Sideboard
Value R/U/G seems to have overtaken the R/U/G Twin decks, though many of those pilots seem to have just made the switch over to U/R. The most popular and successful versions of U/R Twin are sadly among the least spicy. Azure Mages and Grim Lavamancers out of the board are fun, though surely expected at this point. We are definitely seeing a large number of interactive cards in the U/R Twin lists, as they fight to anticipate the right mix of ways to force through their combo. The fairly consistent threat of a turn four kill is one of the major design constraints of this format, and this should certainly be in your gauntlet. Value R/U/G decks combined with the popularity of Day of Judgment have dealt a major blow to Tempered Steel, while providing an opening for combo decks.
Interestingly, this might be paving the way for the return of Tempered Steel!
With more Caw-Blade decks likely to move away from Swords, an increase in Torpor Orbs (which Tempered Steel doesn’t care about and its nemesis Value R/U/G hates), less sweepers, and with there being an increase in Twin, Valakut, and U/B, and a decrease in Value R/U/G and anti-aggro Caw-Blade, we are talking about a lot of little factors that are likely to be followed by a Tempered Steel renaissance.
Creatures (21)
- 4 Grim Lavamancer
- 4 Goblin Guide
- 4 Kargan Dragonlord
- 3 Kiln Fiend
- 2 Hero of Oxid Ridge
- 4 Chandra's Phoenix
Lands (23)
Spells (16)
Sideboard
As you can see, the prophecy on the return of Mono-R has continued to hold true, despite the massive popularity of Timely Reinforcements. The use of Kargan Dragonlord, Kiln Fiend, Chandra’s Phoenix, and Hero of Oxid Ridge paints a picture of a significantly bigger red deck, designed to power through reinforcements, no matter how timely. The use of the cheapest burn available helps make up for the lost tempo. Also, notice the move away from Shrine of Burning Rage. The format currently contains so many Into the Roils, Oblivion Rings, Nature’s Claims, Tuktuk Scrappers, and more that I think the move is actually quite smart. This style of red deck was unveiled by Darwin Kastle the weekend before, and despite Matt Sperling not understanding how the deck works, it still manages to do so.
The biggest surprise is the use of no fetchlands in a deck with Grim Lavamancers. I suppose the theory is that you need every point of life you can get, and that if Grim Lavamancer lives, you are doing alright anyway. That said, I must admit I would imagine that a few fetchlands would do you some good. The use of no Searing Blaze is kind of strange, as well. No maindeck Searing Blazes? Sure, but surely the card is worth sideboarding, right? Then again, I suppose that would lead you to putting the fetches back in. Maybe Sperling has a point…
Creatures (7)
Planeswalkers (6)
Lands (26)
Spells (21)
The US National Champion, StarCity’s own Ali Aintrazi, has certainly created the industry standard for U/B Control decks, with all reported decks being basically just Aintrazi clones. The newest technology is to sideboard Bloodghast, primarily for the mirror and other control match-ups, a move I rate somewhere between solid and sweet. I would hate to have to play this deck in a world of Tempered Steel, but that doesn’t appear to be the world we are living in today. The Value R/U/G match-up isn’t great, but the heavy popularity of combo helps limit those matches at the top tables, and U/B is generally well positioned against Valakut, Twin, and Caw-Blade. This makes it a fine choice, if you can get through the first few rounds, and is one of the biggest factors bringing balance to the format.
One last factor to keep in mind is the use of Consecrated Sphinx, Grave Titan, Liliana Vess, and Karn Liberated along with Solemn Simulacrum gives the deck a very “Tap-Out Control” feel. This is big departure from the U/B Control decks from last year. The tools just aren’t there to take control of a game without Jace, the Mind Sculptor, so you have to brute force it a bit with bombs.
Finally, we come to the last of the big five, the original public enemy #1, Valakut.
Creatures (16)
- 1 Solemn Simulacrum
- 3 Oracle of Mul Daya
- 1 Avenger of Zendikar
- 4 Overgrown Battlement
- 2 Inferno Titan
- 1 Obstinate Baloth
- 4 Primeval Titan
Lands (27)
Spells (17)
Sideboard
I am not as big a fan of Mitteness’s build compared to Pat Cox build, as written about here . The use of Naturalize over Nature’s Claim is cute, but not a big deal. The use of less than four Rampant Growths seems odd. I am totally all about Oracle of Mul Daya in this format, so I don’t love the Solemn instead of the 4th Oracle (though this change is certainly forgivable, as multiple Oracles do offer diminishing returns). While Green Sun’s Zenith should be in your build regardless, I prefer Summoning Traps to the bullets like Obstinate Baloth. Even with just two Khalni Heart Expeditions, I think you want all the fetches you can handle, which in here means -1 Forest, +1 Verdant Catacomb. Actually, on that topic, this is another Valakut deck with only 11 green sources. You have to mulligan so many hands that don’t contain green mana. Why do people skimp on this? Cox runs 13, a number I would be far happier with. He makes room by cutting a Cultivate and a Mountain for two more Verdant Catacombs. The final difference between Mitteness and Cox is the use of four Overgrown Battlements. The Battlement is the clear winner on power, but if you expect Day of Judgment (and Twisted Image) everywhere, cutting them can be quite effective. Cox has two Bolts, a Khalni Heart Expedition, and a Summing Trap instead.
I know it sounds like I am ragging on Mitteness for basically every difference between his build and Cox’s, but it is nothing personal. I don’t think any less of Mitteness as a player and I am sure he is a cool dude. We just happen to be on the topic of Valakut and the differences between two lists. I happen to agree with all of the choices in one list rather than the other, though I do respect Mitteness’s finish. Besides, we are talking fine-tuning numbers. Both lists are surely fine, and there is an element of personal play-style involved.
These are definitely the top 5 decks in the format, at the moment, and make for a well-rounded gauntlet. Ideally, you want to be able to beat at least three of them and have one 50-50 match-up, or at least three of the others (if you are playing one of them). Pulling this off is challenging, but if your playtest time is split between these archetypes, you should be in pretty good shape. I just suggest making sure that Caw-Blade and U/R Twin get extra attention this week. It isn’t always about having a deck that naturally beats every match-up. It is more about having experience with each of these match-ups, so you have a feel for the pacing and how they play out.
Now, let’s take a look at the spiciest brews of the weekend. First, from stateside, we have Douglas McKay with a G/w aggro deck.
Creatures (27)
- 4 Llanowar Elves
- 4 Birds of Paradise
- 4 Leatherback Baloth
- 3 Nest Invader
- 4 Vengevine
- 4 Squadron Hawk
- 4 Blade Splicer
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (23)
Spells (7)
As you can see, this is basically a Mono-G beats deck that adds Squadron Hawk, Blade Splicer, Oblivion Ring, and a number of sweet sideboard cards (plus it picks up a manland). The plan is very straight-forward: just overload the opponent with threats. Your creature advantage gives you natural strength against aggressive decks, your Hawks + Vengevines + Planeswalkers give you a plan against control, and though game one is rough, you sideboard just enough hate to give Twin a run for its money. Valakut is very, very rough, but at least you have the Act of Aggression plan and speed, not to mention Tectonic Edges. Some people are surprised to see both Garruks side-by-side, but this doesn’t actually invoke any more “legend” rules than you would encounter with three Garruk Wildspeakers. Overall, you are not setting any records on power-level, but this is a solid alternative for someone looking for another beatdown deck.
On the other side of the Atlantic, we come to William Dunn’s U/G Skin-Blade. I am not sure what to call this beast, really, because it is a U/G Tempo deck; but when you boil it down, it really is just a Caw-Blade deck with the white replaced with green!
Creatures (14)
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (24)
Spells (19)
- 4 Mana Leak
- 2 Spell Pierce
- 1 Nature's Claim
- 3 Preordain
- 2 Tumble Magnet
- 2 Sword of Feast and Famine
- 4 Beast Within
- 1 Sword of War and Peace
Sideboard
There is no question, this is the coolest deck of the weekend, with Skinshifter, Thrun, the Last Troll, Garruk, Primal Hunter, Beast Within, multiple types of Swords, and the return of Tumble Magnet. When we examine it from the perspective of a Caw-Blade deck with green instead of white, it is really quite logical. Garruk, Primal Hunter instead of Gideon Jura is totally reasonable. Lotus Cobra instead of Squadron Hawk is certainly a very different strategy, but no lower in power. Beast Within instead of Oblivion Ring or Into the Roil is interesting, made all the better because of the Magnets and 4/4’s. You lose a lot of power from no manlands and almost no duals, but you do gain ground with Birds and Cobra changing the way your mana works. Skinshifter and Thrun instead of Day of Judgment and Timely Reinforcements is a strange change, one I would have to play some games with before passing judgment.
I can’t endorse the use of only three Preordains, but that is easily remedied. The sideboarded Creeping Corrosions give you your Day against the match-up you need it most, against Tempered Steel. Sideboarding even more 4/4’s, in the form of Obstinate Baloths and Batterskulls, helps power through the other aggressive match-ups. All in all, this is a very cool build that does some surprising things. I am not sure how much it will hold up without the element of surprise, but it definitely has chances. This is a classic example of one of the advantages rogue decks have over netdecks. This build probably took a lot more prep work by Dunn, but the pay-off suggests it was well worth it.Â
I am a little surprised to see zero Dismembers here, and if you are working on something along these lines, I would at least consider one or two. Skinshifter is a very underrated card that will have more than a few homes before the day is done. He gives you so many options, does a passable Putrid Leech, is hard to Dismember, and tramples (which is surprisingly good).
Where do things go from here? Well, I have cooled a bit on Value R/U/G, a deck designed to prey on Tempered Steel and old Caw-Blade. Tempered Steel actually looks like it would be kind of a solid pick in next week’s metagame, though it is unlikely to be popular. I like Valakut tuned against Caw-Blade, and U/B is decent, though I still hate its aggressive match-ups. Caw-Blade is still good, and for next week, I would suggest giving yourself more of a slant against Twin and U/B. If you are a red mage in your heart, it is a reasonable time to go that route, though I wouldn’t suggest people that don’t normally move in.
There has been so much focus on Modern this past week, it’s nice to take a moment to appreciate just how good the Standard format has been shaping up to be. In another universe, we could all be playing even more Caw-Blade mirrors, but instead we are seeing a balance and diverse metagame with lots of tier 1 decks, as well as new rogue decks popping up and succeeding every week. Everyone knows that we were spared a miserable Pro Tour in Philadelphia because of Modern replacing Extended, but we were also spared a miserable Grand Prix in Pittsburgh because of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Stoneforge Mystic being banned. Looking back, almost eight weeks later, it was probably the perfect change to breath new life into the format.
See you next week!
Patrick Chapin
“The Innovator”
*The thing is, if everything is just chaos anyway, none of our assessments mean anything anyway, so we might as well go ahead and assume there is order. (I suspected that this line in the opening paragraph might discourage a few too many readers)