Analyzing Archetypes For Ikoria: Lair Of Behemoths Draft

How high of a pick are the Triomes? They’re certainly much better than the common lands, but are they ahead of top commons like Farfinder, Fire Prophecy, and Blood Curdle? Probably not. I currently have them below the top-tier commons, but above the rest of the commons. This is lower than both Pouncing Shoreshark and Porcuparrot, as I believe those are top uncommons in the set.

Pouncing Shoreshark and Porcuparrot are messed up cards. Any mutate triggers that helps pull ahead on the battlefield is terrifyingly powerful. Dreamtail Heron is a solid common, but drawing a card is not the same kind of advantage as policing the battlefield with a pinger or repeatable bounce. These both have the potential to be mythic uncommons, but which one is better?

I believe the flash on Pouncing Shoreshark pulls it ahead. Shoreshark can convert to card advantage without requiring the mutate ability and flash is a set theme to add further synergy. Furthermore, against some decks a pinger won’t be particularly impactful, where a bounce effect always will be impactful. This means that the expected rate of no mutate or only one mutate trigger has a higher expected value on Pouncing Shoreshark. If it turns out that pinging for one damage is often very strong, I can see the Porcuparrot being the correct pick instead. 

Charge of the Forever-Beast looks better than it is. Yes, it’s nice to have a green removal spell that cannot be blown out by instant-speed removal, but it’s oddly conditional. When a removal spell is a poor topdeck, it raises concern. I imagine Charge of the Forever-Beast creates tension in gameplay as well. If your opponent doesn’t have a great creature on the battlefield, and you have a small creature and large creature in your hand, are you really supposed to cast the smaller one instead? Probably not. Don’t get me wrong, the card is solid and will make the cut in almost any green deck. I’m just not convinced it’s better than Ram Through.

Checkpoint Officer is a bit expensive. Two mana is a lot for a 1/2 body and two mana is a lot for a tap ability. Generally these tappers either cost one mana or their tap ability only costs one mana. Maybe the Human synergies will prove relevant enough that the card is solid. Maybe mutate will be more about the large body than the triggers such that a tapper keeps it in check. Maybe flash will be prevalent enough that holding up two mana is trivial. But for now, I don’t expect either of those to be enough for Checkpoint Officer to be a high pick.

This leaves good old Evolving Wilds. It might sound odd for a land that enters the battlefield tapped to be a top common, but I really think it is. Especially with a card as powerful as Pouncing Shoreshark, splashing is an important avenue to open up. 

Swallow Whole and Vulpikeet are both solid white cards. One mana for a removal spell that also augments a creature is nothing to scoff at. However, it’s also doubly conditional; requiring both a creature to tap and an opponent’s creature to be tapped. Although that’s not a particularly difficult constraint. Vulpikeet is just a solid flyer, which works well in the Azorius strategy. 

While I think Swallow Whole is a solid pick and certainly better than Vulpikeet, I think it’s best to stay monocolored at this time. If Mystic Subdual were not in the pack, I could see taking Swallow Whole over Anticipate. However, Mystic Subdual is a removal spell in the same color as Pouncing Shoreshark and plays well into the flash theme. Plus, it’s really nice that it counters mutate triggers. I imagine it will be devastating to cast this in response to an opponent trying to mutate.

Essence Scatter and Pacifism are two fantastic pieces of cheap interaction. Pack 1, Pick 1, I’d take Pacifism over Essence Scatter. However, with the current pool, I believe it would be correct to stay one color if not sacrificing too much power. Essence Scatter is close enough to Pacifism that I believe it wins this juxtaposition.

But both Glowstone Recluse and Reconnaissance Mission are so much more powerful than Essence Scatter that I can’t get behind the pick. There’s certainly a world where Essence Scatter is the correct card to take because both the other options are worse than they look and Essence Scatter turns out to be a top common. However I don’t believe that’s the world that we live in.

Glowstone Recluse is a premium mutate creature. Curving Recluse into Pouncing Shoreshark sounds almost unbeatable. A 2/3 reach is a serviceable three-drop and this scales incredibly well. The first time I read the card I thought it only got one +1/+1 counter, but it gets two for every mutate trigger! I wouldn’t fault anybody for picking the Recluse here. That said, I landed on Reconnaissance Mission.

Reconnaissance Mission is an incredibly powerful uncommon. This is the perfect card to have cycling, as it’s a powerful effect that has a specific window of use. If that window never presents itself, cycling it away is perfectly fine. I think the card is too powerful to pass here. It’s possible that blue decks in this format are rarely constructed to take advantage of the card, in which case this pick is a mistake. However, early in the format is the perfect time to figure that out!