It’s that time again. You guessed it! Set release time! Everyone gets to wait eagerly at their computers, checking Twitter and waiting to see what new cards Wizards wants to release to us. So far we’ve seen a fair number of pretty good cards. While a vast majority of cards will never see the light of day in a Constructed deck, a lot of them still have the potential to affect the value of other cards. That’s where I come in! I’ve mentioned in the past that you can’t wait to read an article telling you what’s going to be increasing in value; you need to learn to read the signs yourself. My goal is to teach you what I take into consideration when I’m estimating the value of a newly released card. I’m going to go through some of the cards I’m more excited about and explain why I’m excited about them, including why I believe they have the ability to increase in value and increase the value of other cards.

I always try to ask myself and my coworkers a series of questions. Will this card replace something else in a format? What format wants this card? How much play will this card see? What cards will see more or less play because of this card? Before I can answer these questions I need halp from an old friend. I present to you, Financial Cat.

It occurred to me that some people just scroll through articles and look for something neat to catch their eye (Nick Walters). If someone attempts to do this with one of my articles and doesn’t stop to see why there is a giant lolcat on the page, then I give up. They win. They weren’t going to read a single line in my article anyway.

Spoiler Alert — Snape Kills Dumbledore

Oh, and there’s new Magic cards coming.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

Will this card replace another card in a format?

No. I don’t think it will. It has the ability to be a cute Commander at best. While I don’t expect it to be a replacement for a card, it complements other cards very well. It allows you to break up the number of disruptive creatures you could play in a deck and that is worth noting. If a deck wanted to play some sort of Thorn of Amethyst effect, this card gives the player more options for similar spells with different names. This is always a bonus for singleton formats and it benefits cards like Gifts Ungiven.

What format(s) wants this card? How much play will this card see?

I guess I should explain why this is relevant. When considering the long term value of a card, this is very important. In order for a card to have long term value, it needs to see play in formats other than Standard. Furthermore, it needs to see a decent amount of play in other formats in order to hold any sort of decent value. This card could see play in other formats, but I don’t believe it will see enough play to increase the value of it.  

I don’t predict Thalia to be a four of in very many decks. It’s a legend, it fails the “Gut Shot” test for Standard, and there are better options for Legacy. These are huge negatives for this card that ultimately stop Thalia from increasing in value.

What card(s) will see more or less play because of this card?

I don’t think this card will increase or decrease the amount of play other cards see enough to affect their value. This card doesn’t have a unique ability that allows it to “break” another card. This card can be a semi-replacement for Thorn of Amethyst, Gaddock Teeg, and Ethersworn Canonist, but it doesn’t have a lot going for it that the other cards don’t already have. I could see this card being played alongside some of these cards, but not completely rendering them obsolete.

What do I think the card will be worth.

I don’t see this card being worth very much at all. It will probably peak a few dollars at best. I don’t see a ton of reasons to invest in this card.

Thraben Doomsayer

Will this card replace another card in a format?

No, it will not. This is the type of card that complements other cards in a format very well. The Fateful Hour ability isn’t my favorite thing. I don’t feel like there is a good enough way to ensure that you’ll be able to benefit from this ability. Sure, you have cards like Spellskite that allow you to crush your life total, but I don’t know how good that is. Keywords like affinity and metalcraft were better because you could build around them and you only benefited from obtaining them. The drawback to purposely obtaining Fateful hour is too large to force it, in my opinion. I should warn you, I’m awful when it comes to actually playing magic, so if I miss something, don’t destroy me!

What format(s) want this card? How much play will this card see?

I only see this card being played in Standard and maybe Modern/Commander. Since this card won’t be seeing significant play in any Eternal formats, it’s unlikely that this card will keep value in the long run.

This is the type of card that will have multiple copies in a deck, if it finds a deck to be played in. Right now in Standard the three-drop slot for white is very competitive and I feel like this card will have to wait until Scars of Mirrodin block rotates out to see more play, but I feel like it definitely has potential. For those of you playing Magic Online, I feel like this card could see a bit of play in Block as well. I haven’t been keeping up with the format that much, but with all the token cards being printed, there is a chance this card could see play, so don’t sell the ones you draft to a bot for .08 tickets.

What card(s) will see more or less play because of this card?

Unless Form of the Dragon makes a sudden resurgence and going to 5 life is as cool as Miles Davis again, I don’t see this card forcing any other cards out of the woods.

What do I think this card will be worth?

I don’t think this card will be a bulk rare, but it won’t be format defining either. I’d estimate the long term value of this card will be between $2-$3.

Increasing Confusion

Will this card replace another card in a format?

No, but my inner-Timmy LOVES this card. I don’t know why. I’ve never been the milling type, but an X mill spell excites me.

What format(s) want this card? How much play will this card see?

I don’t think any format really wants this card, but I feel like it has a ton of casual appeal. That alone allows a card to keep value. This card has a chance of being played in some sort of self-mill deck in Standard. Even if that does happen it won’t sky rocket in value.

Tying into the previous question, all of this card’s value is coming from the casual players. So while it will see a ton of casual play, I wouldn’t expect it to be popping up on any top 8 list in the near future.

What card(s) will see more or less play because of this card?

All of the other mill cards already see a ton of play in casual formats. This is just another card that casual players get to shove in their 80 card decks. Cards like this don’t really prevent other cards from being played, they’re just played in addition to the cards already available. 

What do I think this card will be worth?

This card has a lot of potential to be a $2-$4 card. I’m not so sure this will happen while it is in Standard, but I believe in the long run as the supply dries up, the value will increase; like most mill cards, it has a lot of long term playability.

Gravecrawler

Will this card replace another card in a format?

This card has a lot of potential to replace other, less relevant cards in formats. The cards that Gravecrawler will be replacing are mostly commons. Not that Zombies is a huge force in Constructed right now, but if they keep printing cards like this, it will be. What I wouldn’t give for Rotlung Reanimator back; that’s on my top 10 favorite cards of all time! Gravecrawler’s ability to dominate attrition wars is absurd to me. That makes it one of the, if not the best one-drop in a Zombie deck. Tribal Zombie decks have existed in the past and it’s possible for them to come back from the grave. See what I did there?!

What format(s) want this card? How much play will this card see?

This card doesn’t have any Eternal playability as far as I can tell. If they keep printing good zombies then it is very possible for this card to be a staple in Standard or Modern.

I hate that these lines of questions force me to keep repeating myself for this particular card, but once again, Gravecrawler has a lot riding on what else they decide to print. It only makes sense for them to make more playable zombies, but until we have them, I can’t vouch for how well this card is going to do. Keep your eyes peeled for more zombies and if they get spoiled then you’re probably safe to assume that a zombie deck might be playable.

What card(s) will see more or less play because of this card?

Sigh, refer to above. If more zombies get printed, then the value of all of them increases from each other.

What do I think this card will be worth?

This card is very comparable to Bloodghast. It fills a similar role in a similar deck. If/when zombies become a deck I would look to Bloodghast to tell me how much this card will be worth. That being said, it has little to no long term value. Bloodghast is much better in older formats because it is a lot less dependent to return to play, but at the same time I still haven’t contacted All State to insure my Bloodghast in case something were to happen to them. I feel like this card can spike to $8-$10. However, I’d estimate the long term value of this card to be between $3-$5.

Drogskol Reaver

Will this card replace another card in a format?

No, I feel like the current finishers in Standard are better than this card. 99% of the time I’d rather be casting a Sun Titan or a Consecrated Sphinx.

What format(s) want this card? How much play will this card see?

COMMANDER! I feel like this card is an auto-include in any Commander deck. He’s a monster spirit in that format. So while he won’t be busting down the doors of the Constructed formats he’ll definitely earn value from our more casual friends. This also means his foil version is likely to be ridiculous.

What card(s) will see more or less play because of this card?

None really, casual formats don’t really change the playability of a card very often. But with 100 card singleton formats, and not having the restriction of a 60 card deck, it’s usually really easy to find more room for the cards you want to play.

What do I think this card will be worth?

If I’m right and Commander players love this card, then it has a lot of potential to increase in value over time. I’d estimate the long term value of this card to be $6-$8.

Falkenrath Aristocrat

Alright, so I have story about this guy. However, I need assistance from another friend of mine in order to tell it. I present to you, Gossip Cat.

Thanks, Gossip Cat!

I walked into the office the day after this guy was spoiled and heard two of my coworkers arguing. Before allowing me to pick a side based on who was arguing which side, they asked me a general question — the question was, “In three months, which card will be worth more money; Sorin, Lord of Innistrad or Falkenrath Aristocrat?” I laughed assuming this wasn’t a serious question. However, Travis looked at me with the most srsbsns face I’ve ever seen and waited for me to reply. I responded with an obvious, “Sorin,” waiting to see if I had missed part of the conversation. Long story short Matt and Travis made a bet that will result in Travis wearing a My Little Pony shirt that’s two sizes too small while he says, “I’m an idiot,” around the office for a week. If some random act of Magic gods occur and Falkenrath Aristocrat is worth more than Sorin in three months, then Matt owes Travis some irrelevant sum of money that I tuned out assuming it would never need to be paid.

If you were wondering — Yes, this is my average day at work. I know, I have a sweet job! On Nick Spagnolo first day with Starcitygames.com I was eating lunch with him and I said, “How do you like your first day so far?” He replied, “Is that a serious question? I had a meeting where I got to mention that things die to Dismember.” That reminds me, Drogskol Reaver dies to Dismember, thus making it even worse in Standard and Modern.

Will this card replace another card in a format?

If it does replace a card, it will most likely be one of the four drops that is potentially playable in Mono Red. Koth and Hero of Oxid Ridge aren’t seeing a ton of play in Mono Red decks currently so I don’t really see it replacing cards that already aren’t being played a lot.

What format(s) want this card? How much play will this card see?

Standard and Modern are really the only formats that could benefit from a card like this. While it has evasion and the ability to keep itself alive, it fails the Gut Shot test and dies to Dismember as well. Furthermore, I’m not terribly excited to cast a four drop in Mono Red either. I suppose I should clarify that I realize this card has black in its mana cost, but the theory is that a base Mono Red deck might want to splash black in order to have the evasion provided by this guy. One of the biggest drawbacks is that a lot of games Mono Red wins is by sitting on your hands and waiting for your Shrine of Burning Rage to become lethal. I could just see casting this guy, having him countered or killed, then my opponent untapping and Oblivion Ringing my Shrine, making me want to jump off a tall bridge. He’s got too much liability for the likes of me.

What card(s) will see more or less play because of this card?

If he does catch on to a Mono Red (splashing black) deck, then Dragonskull Summit and Blackcleave Cliffs will see more play. As I said earlier, he would also have to take the spot of Hero of Oxid Ridge or Koth as well. Having too many four drops in a deck that would even consider playing Falkenrath Aristocrat seems pretty bad to me. 

With more token cards being printed, it seems really unlikely that this card could replace Hero of Oxid Ridge, or that a Mono Red deck would even be worth playing.

What do I think this card will be worth?

I feel like this card has to decrease in value. It just doesn’t have a deck right now, nor do I expect it to. They could up the amount of black/red aggressive cards printed and help this card out a ton, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Sorin, Lord of Innistrad

Last, but certainly not least — Sorin, Lord of Innistrad. Not sure if you guys knew this or not, but Sorin’s name in play testing was “Sorin, Baddest of all the Asses”. (In similarly related news, Sorin Markov’s play testing name was, “Sorin, ‘I have two dads’ Markov.”)* I really like the new Sorin. He hasn’t found a deck yet, but he has so much potential to crush, in my opinion.

Will this card replace another card in a format?

If any sort of black/white tokens deck was going to be played then Ajani Goldman can stick his head between his legs and kiss his ass goodbye. This card is everything Ajani Goldmane wanted to be and more. However, I’m not sure how viable a black/white tokens deck is without Bitterblossom.

What format(s) want this card? How much play will this card see?

I feel like this card has to find a place in Standard or Modern. While worse than Elspeth, Knight-Errant, it works very well with her. Planeswalkers that protect themselves and make the other cards in your deck more threatening tend to see play. In addition to Standard and Modern, I believe Commander decks will take full advantage of newer planeswalkers at all times. This one wouldn’t replace Ajani Goldmane in a Commander deck, but would definitely coexist with him.

What card(s) will see more or less play because of this card?

When planeswalkers are concerned I’m always of the opinion, “the more the merrier.” Across all formats he works well with other planeswalkers and cards. He protects himself or leaves a long lasting board presence. He’s got a lot going for him. I don’t think he’ll drive the price of other cards up or down yet, but he’s definitely a card I plan on keeping track of.

What do I think this card will be worth?

I originally thought this card would pre-sale for $40-$50. The market quickly drove his price from being $50 to $60. $60 is a lot of money for a Magic card, especially a Standard one. If you have a plan for ol’ Sorin, then you’re probably fine to pick up some. I’m not sure if he’ll be able to hold a $60 price tag though. One of the major benefits Sorin has going for him is that Dark Ascension will only be drafted for three months. As stated in my first article, this can create a very awkward trend, much like Worldwake experienced. I am in no way suggesting that Sorin is Jace, the Mind Sculptor 2.0, but I do like Sorin a lot and I would expect him to maintain a reasonable price tag in the future.

So Long, Fare Well, We only speak Amurican in these parts, Goodbye

I know a lot of financial writers wait until all of the cards are released to write a financial review of spoiled cards, but I fear that if I wait too long then my readers can miss opportunities they would have otherwise had. I don’t particularly like the fact that a lot of my reviews were dependent on certain cards coming out, but I feel like if I’ve provided you with “if/when” scenarios then you’ll be able to react faster.

Keep in mind that I do plan on writing about more cards as they become spoiled, so make sure to check back in next week. If a card you’re curious about didn’t make it into this article, there is still hope for it to be in future articles.

Thanks for Reading!

-Wesley David Wise

@wdwise on Twitter 

*I made up both of those names. Don’t ever believe me when I say something as ridiculous as that.