It is an undeniable phenomenon that, after the release of a new base set, the Standard metagame is mainly made up of decks from the previous Block and Standard seasons. Last October we had a metagame full of Slide and Goblins, the year before, it was U/G Madness and MBC. Although, in time, these decks are caught up and superseded by decks that can fully utilize cards from the new block, this takes time; especially for the more subtle decks (i.e. those that don’t just utilize a stupidly broken new mechanic).
So what am I trying to say here? Well, what I am really trying to say is that there is a fair chance that, come States, you will be playing a deck that you are already playing with, or at least are aware of. The question is what deck will this be? This article will look at all the big decks in the current Standard metagame, and assess whether they can survive the transition to new Standard. Note that Block Constructed decks are also just as likely, if not more so, to become the new Standard decks. However, in the current environment, most Tier 1 Mirrodin BC decks (if anything other than Affinity can be considered Tier 1) are played in Standard to some degree anyway. Only R/G seems to have missed the boat, and this will be discussed below.
So what I will do here is look at the decks one by one, see what they lose once Onslaught block leaves the format, and what chance they have of being able to survive the rotation. Obviously this is difficult to do without knowing what is in Champions of Kamigawa. I will assume that the set contains nothing to help each deck, except for the generic cards that every set contains. I know R&D do some way-out things, but I am yet to see a base set that doesn’t contain a cheap Red burn spell, a Green pump spell and some Black discard. Note that not all of the decks listed below will be optimum builds, they are just decks plucked from the StarCityGames.com deck database to give an example of this type of deck.
Affinity
As played by Remi Gruet on 2004-06-27. 2nd in French Open
Land
4 Vault of Whispers
3 Darksteel Citadel
4 Glimmervoid
4 Seat of the Synod
3 Great Furnace
Creatures
4 Arcbound Ravager
4 Disciple of the Vault
4 Ornithopter
4 Arcbound Worker
3 Myr Enforcer
4 Frogmite
Spells
3 Cranial Plating
4 Shrapnel Blast
2 Thirst for Knowledge
4 Thoughtcast
3 Chromatic Sphere
3 Skeleton Shard
Sideboard
3 Pyroclasm
4 Mana Leak
2 Detonate
1 Great Furnace
2 Pyrite Spellbomb
2 Myr Retriever
1 Cranial Plating
The most hated deck in Mirrodin block will almost certainly be the deck to beat in the new Standard, at least to start with. However, Affinity hasn’t achieved the same level of dominance in Standard, thanks to decks packing answers that are not available in block. Cards like Wrath of God, Akroma’s Vengeance and Pyroclasm have kept the brown menace in check and ensured that, while powerful, it does not have the same hold over the format as it does in Block Constructed.
What does it lose?
Nothing, zip, nada, not one iota. There is not one card in the above list from Onslaught block, and I didn’t especially look for a deck like that, this is typical for nearly all Affinity deck lists.
Verdict
Almost certain to be a big player in the early part of the season, unless some really savage hate is in the new block. It will be difficult for other decks to keep up even if there is nothing at all for Affinity in CoK.
Big Red
As played by Elton M Fior on 2004-06-27. 2nd at Brazil Nationals
Land
10 Mountain
4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Great Furnace
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
Creatures
4 Furnace Dragon
4 Arc-Slogger
4 Solemn Simulacrum
Spells
4 Forge[/author]“]Pulse of the [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]
4 Shrapnel Blast
4 Electrostatic Bolt
4 Seething Song
3 Pyroclasm
3 Chrome Mox
2 Talisman of Indulgence
2 Talisman of Impulse
Sideboard
4 Detonate
4 Echoing Ruin
4 Molten Rain
3 Oblivion Stone
I’m not sure what form it will take, but while there are cards like Forge[/author]“]Pulse of the [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author], Arc-Slogger and Slith Firewalker in the format, there is bound to be a mono-Red deck of some description of at least tier 2 level.
What does it lose?
Not a lot. As you can see, the above deck contains no Onslaught Block cards whatsoever, and so can be played in the Standard tournament of your choice all year. Generally speaking though, there are some Onslaught Block cards used by mono-Red decks that will be unavailable after the rotation.
Starstorm
In my opinion, one of the best Red mass removal spells ever printed. Most decks use Pyroclasm because it takes out the majority of relevant creatures in the format (Goblins, Frogmites, Soldier Tokens, Somber Hoverguard etc.) However, if decks sporting larger creatures start to emerge, Red mages will miss Starstorm greatly.
Rorix
Used as a finisher in a lot of Red decks. One of the best six-mana beatsticks ever, but not vital to the deck. Has largely been superseded by Arc-Slogger, and I’m sure they’ll be a big flying Red legend somewhere in CoK.
Verdict
There will almost certainly be some kind of Mono-Red Burn deck in post-Kamigawa Standard. It may be a fast aggro deck with Slith Firewalkers, or a slower deck that controls the board until it can go off with Forge[/author]“]Pulse of the [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author], or possibly both. Never count out a deck that can steal wins out of nowhere, even if it receives no help in CoK at all.
Mono-Black Control (Death Cloud)
As played by Chris Nadebaum on 2004-07-11. 3rd at Australian Nationals.
Land
17 Swamp
2 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Barren Moor
Creatures
1 Visara the Dreadful
4 Ravenous Rats
4 Chittering Rats
4 Rotlung Reanimator
4 Solemn Simulacrum
Spells
4 Wayfarer’s Bauble
4 Smother
4 Dark Banishing
4 Consume Spirit
4 Death Cloud
Sideboard
4 Cabal Interrogator
2 Duplicant
4 Shattered Dreams
3 Dampening Matrix
2 Sword of Fire and Ice
Lots of people have tried to play mono-Black in Standard, and even Block this year. Most efforts have come up short, but there is definitely the nucleus there for a good deck. [author name="Scott Tucker"]Scott Tucker[/author] recently claimed impressive win percentages with a variant of this deck against the current Standard metagame, although admits this may be to do with the fact that nobody really knows how to play against the deck.
What does it lose?
While the core of the deck remains intact, some important cards are lost with the removal of Onslaught block.
Smother
This is very efficient removal, which is excellent at neutralizing early tempo. Against decks containing small creatures, this is effectively a cheaper Dark Banishing that can also affect Black creatures! This is a significant loss to the deck, although there is other Black removal that could take its place and may be more in Champions.
Rotlung Reanimator
In this deck, simply used as a creature that has to be removed twice, and there is certainly nothing wrong with that. Some builds use other clerics to make this guy even more butch (Headhunter probably being the best), but on his own he is still a great three-drop against any deck. Has excellent synergy with Death Cloud, leaving a man behind after the board has been wiped, making Rotlung very difficult to replace.
Cabal Interrogator/Headhunter
Disagreement on which is better, but most builds of MBC use one or the other. Reusable discard is very powerful against control, and is difficult to replace (Disrupting Scepter is not an answer). Other playable discard spells exist, such as Coercion and Fill with Fright, but these don’t land at such a curve-friendly mana cost.
Visara
A good finisher, but not exactly necessary for the deck. Makes a lot of appearances in deck lists, because of a lack of a better large Black creature right now.
Barren Moor
A luxury. Good when looking for answers, or a finisher late game, but certainly not essential.
Verdict
Will need a lot of help from CoK to be viable in the new Standard. Some may argue that it is not even viable in the current Standard, and certainly once Onslaught rotates out, it will have even less tools. The biggest missing piece in the puzzle seems to be a good piece of mass removal. Death Cloud is not bad, but needs a specific set of game conditions to be used optimally. A card on par with Mutilate in CoK will certainly make this archetype worth looking at once more.
Goblins/Goblin Bidding
As played by Oliver Ruel on 2004-07-18. 1st at French Nationals
Land
13 Mountain
3 Swamp
3 City of Brass
4 Bloodstained Mire
Creatures
4 Skirk Prospector
4 Goblin Sledder
4 Goblin Sharpshooter
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Siege-Gang Commander
3 Clickslither
4 Sparksmith
4 Goblin Piledriver
Spells
4 Electrostatic Bolt
2 Patriarch’s Bidding
Sideboard
1 Detonate
2 Patriarchs Biding
2 Shatter
3 Sulfuric Vortex
4 Dwarven Blastminer
They’ve had their year in the sun, but it’s time for the little Red men to retire to Extended.
What does it lose?
It’s entire creature base and more.
Verdict:
There may well be a Sligh-like deck in Standard next year, but it won’t be a Goblin one.
G/W Slide
As played by Bryce Trevilyan (wasn’t he a Bond villain?) on 2004-07-11. 5th-8th at Australian Nationals
Land
7 Plains
7 Forest
4 Tranquil Thicket
4 Secluded Steppe
2 Windswept Heath
1 Temple of the False God
Creatures
4 Eternal Witness
3 Viridian Shaman
3 Eternal Dragon
Spells
4 Creeping Mold
2 Akroma’s Vengeance
4 Astral Slide
4 Rampant Growth
4 Wrath of God
4 Renewed Faith
3 Decree of Justice
Sideboard
2 Scrabbling Claws
4 Oxidize
4 Plow Under
2 Reap and Sow
3 Exalted Angel
This deck has been a powerhouse in the latter part of the season, for those that took the time to learn how to play it. However the deck is gutted by the rotation.
What does it lose?
Lots and lots. Basically half the deck, including the its namesake comes from Onslaught Block.
Verdict
This deck is based around the White power cards in Onslaught Block, which will all be gone. Obviously the loss of Astral Slide itself will make this particular incarnation of G/W control unworkable. I have seen G/W control decks that don’t use Slide, but they will still lose, amongst others, Eternal Dragon, Decree of Justice, Akroma’s Vengeance and Exalted Angel. Given the power of Eternal Witness, I’m sure there will be a Green-based control deck in post-CoK Standard, and White is a natural partner for green in a control deck, because of mana base issues, and access to board sweepers. However, if there is such a deck, it will need loads of help from CoK and will look nothing like this.
Ponza
As played by Jeroen Remie on 2004-07-25. 1st at Dutch Nationals
Land
2 Forgotten Cave
4 Stalking Stones
19 Mountain
Creatures
3 Dwarven Blastminer
4 Arc-Slogger
1 Rorix Bladewing
Spells
4 Electrostatic Bolt
3 Pyroclasm
4 Shatter
4 Stone Rain
4 Molten Rain
3 Lay Waste
2 Demolish
3 Starstorm
Sideboard
3 Forge[/author]“]Pulse of the [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author]
4 Culling Scales
2 Demolish
4 Flashfires
2 Detonate
A real metagame deck. Has a good game against Tooth and Nail and a decent one against Affinity, which alone makes it a strong deck in current Standard. Struggles against any deck containing Blue or White.
What does it lose?
Quite a few cards are lost, but this deck works largely on redundancy. Although there are some key loses, most cards in the deck can be replaced by other similar ones.
Forgotten Cave
Just a luxury, deck functions perfectly well without.
Dwarven Blastminer
Can be great in some matchups and will be missed. Was never the key to the deck though, as it couldn’t destroy a land until turn 3, by which time your other land destruction has come online anyway. In fact it is often played as a Gray Ogre to beat down after your opponents mana-base has been crippled.
Lay Waste
Its cycling ability is handy, but really this is just Stone Rain numbers nine to eleven. I imagine Kamigawa will contain a random Red LD spell to replace this.
Starstorm
I have always found that this is inferior to Pyroclasm in this deck. If your opponent gets enough land to cast something with more than two Toughness, then you are probably going to lose anyway. However, it provides useful redundancy against weenie rushes, and cycles away if not needed. Not an essential component, and could probably be replaced with Flamebreak or whatever Kamigawa offers.
Rorix
Never an essential component of the deck, and can certainly be replaced by another random big Red fatty.
Verdict
This deck loses a number of cards, but nothing from its core. Its game against Affinity and T&N alone could ensure it gets played well into next season, and given CoK looks like being a format of largish creatures, it may be a good choice. The problem with this deck is that it is vulnerable to so many things. Sacred Ground, Condescend, Mana Leak and Circle of Protection: Red all spell”GG”. Kamigawa may also contain additional hate. Not a great deck to take to States where there is a lot of randomness.
R/G Aggro-Control
As played by Dennis Johannsen. 1st in Berlin PTQ 2004-08-21. Note, this is a Mirrodin Block deck. R/G has not seen significant play in Standard.
Land
4 Mirrodin’s Core
11 Forest
10 Mountain
Creatures
4 Tel-Jilad Chosen
4 Eternal Witness
3 Viridian Shaman
4 Karstoderm
4 Arc-Slogger
1 Molder Slug
Spells
2 Electrostatic Bolt
3 Fireball
4 Magma Jet
4 Molten Rain
2 Reap and Sow
Sideboard
2 Creeping Mold
2 Reap and Sow
1 Mountain
2 Electrostatic Bolt
4 Oxidize
4 Tel-Jilad Justice
There have always been R/G decks, ever since Richard Garfield made the world. While R/G hasn’t been played in Standard this year (much), it has been prevalent in Block Constructed as an attempt to stop the Affinity menace.
What does it lose?
Nothing. It’s a block deck.
Verdict
Well the biggest problem I’ve got with R/G, is that it doesn’t actually do an awful lot outside of destroy loads and loads of artifacts, and then play an arbitrary fatty. Sure, it sometimes plays aggro, or sometimes stalls the game out before it Fireballs to the dome for 47, but there is no real synergy here or even particularly powerful cards, except for Eternal Witness and Arc-Slogger. On top of that, R/G ultimately failed to really trump Affinity, and so you begin to wonder if this deck has a niche at all. It will take some good additions in Champions to make this deck a competitor in Standard.
U/R March
As played by Michael Thicke. 3rd at Canadian Nationals 2004-07-04
Land
2 Temple of the False God
8 Mountain
14 Island
Creatures
None
Spells
4 Darksteel Ingot
4 Serum Visions
2 Condescend
3 Concentrate
3 Annul
4 March of the Machines
3 Obliterate
3 Electrostatic Bolt
4 Mana Leak
2 Echoing Truth
4 Rewind
Sideboard
3 Acquire
3 Magma Jet
4 Pyroclasm
1 Electrostatic Bolt
2 Stifle
2 Millstone
Despite being banded as”U/R Control”, this is more of a combo deck than control really, the synergy between Darksteel Ingot, March of the Machines and Obliterate being the deck’s real strength, with the Counter-magic merely buying a bit of time to set this combo up.
What does it lose?
Nothing really. The only Onslaught Block card in the above deck list is Stifle, and this is not in all versions. I have seen versions of this deck running Discombobulate and/or Rorix out of the sideboard, but as far as I can tell these are the exception rather than the rule.
Verdict
This looks like one deck that is likely to get better rather than worse with the rotation. The deck only has four threats, but they are indestructible, meaning it will take a very specific sort of hate to render this deck unplayable. It also has an answer everything solution in Obliterate, which means the only real way to beat this deck is to win quickly, or have a win condition that can be protected from Obliterate. Any good card drawing, or other card that fits the synergy of this deck, could make it a contender for best deck in the format.
U/W Control
As played by Aleksander Dahl on 2004-07-04. 1st at Norwegian Nationals.
Land
5 Island
8 Plains
4 Cloudpost
4 Flooded Strand
3 Temple of the False God
Creatures
4 Eternal Dragon
Spells
3 Akroma’s Vengeance
4 Condescend
4 Decree of Justice
2 Mana Leak
2 Pulse of the Fields
3 Rewind
3 Stifle
4 Wayfarer’s Bauble
3 Wing Shards
4 Wrath of God
Sideboard
2 Altar’s Light
3 Annul
3 Circle of Protection: Red
2 Purge
1 Rewind
4 Weathered Wayfarer
A deck that took a while to develop in Onslaught Block Constructed, but has been present ever since. Unfortunately, like Slide, its fate is tied to that of Onslaught Block White.
What does it lose?
Nearly all of the cards that make it good. Mirrodin was a wretched block for Constructed-worthy White cards, with the exception of Pulse of the Fields and Pristine Angel.
Verdict
There might be a big recursive White finisher that doubles as a mana fixer in Kamigawa. There also might be a mass removal spell that destroys artifacts, and an uncounterable card that creates loads of creatures in your opponents end step. I doubt it though.
Tooth and Nail
As played by Russel Tanchell. 2nd in South African Nationals.
Land
10 Forest
4 Urza’s Mine
4 Urza’s Power Plant
4 Urza’s Tower
1 Tranquil Thicket
Creatures
4 Vine Trellis
2 Solemn Simulacrum
1 Darksteel Colossus
1 Triskelion
1 Duplicant
1 Mephidross Vampire
1 Molder Slug
3 Eternal Witness
1 Ravenous Baloth
Spells
4 Tooth and Nail
4 Naturalize
4 Sylvan Scrying
4 Reap and Sow
4 Oblivion Stone
2 Mindslaver
Sideboard
2 Ravenous Baloth
1 Mindslaver
1 Viridian Zealot
1 Oxidize
1 Platinum Angel
1 Leonin Abunas
1 Viridian Shaman
3 Xantid Swarm
1 Bringer of the White Dawn
1 Symbiotic Wurm
2 Sword of Fire and Ice
Officially has more words not liked by my spellchecker than any other deck in Standard. It’s also a lot of fun to play apparently. Oh, and pretty good too.
What does it lose?
Fortunately for fans of 11/11 indestructible creatures, Tooth and Nail will not mourn the loss of Onslaught Block too much. However, there are a few cards it will have to do without.
Ravenous Baloth
In my mind, this creature warrants consideration for any Green deck. It is a great play against a weenie rush and is also very efficiently costed at 4/4 for four-mana. Not vital to the deck, but will weaken it’s aggro matchup somewhat.
Xantid Swarm
A useful card against control, as it gives them one more spell they must counter or remove if they want to stop T&N resolving. How big a loss this will be depends on how dominant blue decks are in the new Standard.
Symbiotic Wurm
No real loss. Not even sure why this is in the deck, it seems very underpowered.
Tranquil Thicket
Gravy.
Verdict
There are good reasons to expect that Tooth and Nail will be a good deck next year, but there are a few reasons it may not be. Hard counters certainly cause this deck problems, as do sacrifice effects, such as Barter in Blood and Death Cloud. Ponza also has this deck on its”bye” list. Therefore, the fate of this deck is pretty much tied to the rest of the metagame. If MBC, Ponza and Blue-based control don’t show up next year, then this deck will be great, otherwise it may struggle a little.
Ironworks
As played by Helmut Summersberger on 2004-07-18. 4th in Austrian Nationals.
Land
4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Seat of the Synod
4 Great Furnace
2 Vault of Whispers
2 Tree of Tales
2 Ancient Den
Creatures
None
Spells
2 Talisman of Progress
2 Talisman of Dominance
4 Krark-Clan Ironworks
4 Myr Incubator
2 Goblin Charbelcher
1 Mindslaver
4 Pentad Prism
4 Chrome Mox
3 Thoughtcast
4 Mana Leak
4 Serum Visions
4 Fabricate
3 Thirst for Knowledge
1 Annul
Sideboard
3 City of Brass
4 Pyroclasm
3 Annul
2 Disrupting Scepter
2 Bringer of the Black Dawn
1 Bringer of the White Dawn
Ever since the release of Fifth Dawn, this deck has been sitting apologetically at the bottom of the list of metagame decks in articles like this. Almost like everyone is embarrassed to admit that this deck is in the metagame at all. I left it out completely but, as I write this, it is putting up a reasonable showing at the Worlds, so I guess I had better include it.
What does it lose?
Nothing. It’s a deck stuffed full of Mirrodin Block artifacts and not a lot else.
Verdict
This deck has been a real victim of collateral damage this year. All the hate aimed at Affinity has indirectly made KCI all but unplayable. With cards such as Starstorm, Shatter, Dwarven Blastminer and Echoing Truth kicking around in the metagame, this deck seemed destined to be the”what if” deck. Now some of these cards are rotating out, it may be that this deck will get its day in the sun. Personally, I think it is still too fragile to be a tier 1 deck.
So what does that leave us with?
So what kind of metagame are we left with here, now we have weeded out the decks that probably won’t make it? Affinity is almost sure to be there, but after that it will probably be the decks that gain the most from Champions that will rise to the top, especially if they can utilize any obviously broken cards in the set. If you want to build a gauntlet for testing your new decks, then I would start with the following.
Affinity
Ponza
Big Red
U/R March
Tooth and Nail
There will inevitably be a”hot new deck” based on cards from Champions. Mirrodin gave us Broodstar Affinity, and Onslaught gave us Astroglide (as it was then called). However, I would place money that the majority of States winners will be players playing with tweaked versions of the above five decks.
Of course, I may be wrong.
Piemaster
‘piemaster’ on MTGO