“Never confuse movement with action.” – Ernest Hemingway
Time to be honest: I have no idea where the format is going. I had a strong grip on the format going into Grand Prix: Columbus and several interesting deck concepts (one of which is still worthwhile and I plan to get more testing and present next month). Then Flash happened. I have to admit; I enjoyed the Flash metagame. I like Blue-based control and combo decks, and there was so much room for advantage to be gained just by having an optimal list. What I find the most amazing about Flash was how dramatically the metagame adapted. Basically all of Legacy sat up and acknowledged Flash as the best deck and then started metagaming. All of Legacy stood up together and said, “We will not play decks that lose to the best deck.” Some people played glass cannons, but almost no one did the opposite and knowingly played something that was unfavorable versus Flash. Why am I making a big deal out of this? The week before people were playing decks that could not beat Goblins, like U/G/W Thresh. People often show me or post decks that have a lot of hate towards Threshold and midrange control elements, but they have no way to stop Goblins. Intentionally bringing a glass cannon is one thing, but would you play a deck at Grand Prix: Columbus that had no game against Flash? Even if you had zero byes?
I know I talk a lot about metagaming and what decks I think are good deck choices. Partly this is because I do a lot of thinking, theorizing and discussing with people I consider to be good at Legacy.
The other reason I talk about what decks to play is that the Legacy metagame does not make sense, and it really tends to skew tournament results. At a tournament for any other format, you can look at what decks have been doing well, what decks are good, and what decks are new; those factors along with some regional knowledge allows you to predict the metagame fairly well. The only time you could make Legacy metagame predictions with any sort of accuracy was at Grand Prix: Columbus. Otherwise you have to say, “Some Goblins, some Threshold, some High Tide, some Tendrils combo, some Landstill… and about twenty other decks.” One of the things that continually confused me about Legacy tournaments was the high preponderance of aggro-control decks, specifically U/G/W, and to a lesser extent U/G Madness. Generally those strategies are about even against other aggro-control decks, ahead against combo decks and behind against aggro decks. They also tend to be strong against control strategies and weak against board control strategies; Craig Hall discusses this in more depth in his article Legacy and the Metagame Clock. For the most part, pure control and board-control strategies tend to be absent from the Legacy metagame, so I will ignore them for the moment. If the metagame is predominantly aggressive strategies, playing U/G/W Threshold is wrong. Playing U/G/R Threshold would be much more of a strong move because the anti-Goblins elements, but U/G/R has trouble in the mirror (especially before the Counterbalance/Top engine was added to some builds). The entire Legacy metagame prior to Future Sight was unstable. Goblins was the best deck, and its predator U/G/R Threshold fell prey to the U/G/W Threshold decks that did not have a stable place in the metagame. The whole thing tended to be fairly muddled due to poor or no testing results to accurately gauge matchups.
This is in effect the principle that drove me to create my U/W/R deck (or to be honest, any of my decks). The metagame at a tournament would usually work out fairly consistently. You would face a wide variety of decks at the first four rounds of a tournament. You are almost guaranteed to face Goblins once and to face another deck you have heard of once. There is no way to know what other two or three decks you will face. The other interesting occurrence was that Legacy combo decks could basically choose how strong they wanted to be against Goblins versus Threshold. Is it no surprise that Reset High Tide (Solidarity) was dramatically outperforming the faster, less consistent combo decks like Nausea (at the time), Iggy, Belcher, and TES? Of the list the Brain Freeze deck was one of the few decks that could beat Force of Will with any amount of consistency. Fine except Brain Freeze decks were the first ones to perform well at major tournaments. Prior to the rise of combo decks, what was the prey the Force of Will decks were hoping to prey on? The only answer I can come up with is that the U/G/W Threshold decks were hoping to prey on the U/W Landstill decks. Theoretically, the Landstill players would keep the Goblins players out of the top brackets while falling prey to Werebears. The problem was that Landstill struggled against Goblins; this became more obvious as Goblins adopted Rishadan Ports and Wastelands en masse. But even if you accept that, I cannot understand the desire to play U/G/W Threshold at the most recent StarCityGames.com Duel for Duals, for example. It is almost certain that Goblins players are going to outnumber combo players, especially at the top tables. The only decks you want to face against with Threshold instead of Goblins are the combo decks. In every other matchup, playing Goblins was advantageous. But sometimes Goblins beat the combo decks by virtue of pure speed and powerful sideboarded disruption. This is why Empty the Warrens was such a powerful tool that helped make Tendrils decks a potent metagame force: they could beat Force of Will or Meddling Mage. Of course, now U/G/W Threshold is the deck to play (until we find a better vessel to use Tarmogoyf). Oh yeah, and Empty the Warrens and new developments with Goblin Charbelcher mean combo is everywhere. Goblins is officially no longer the deck to play.
Future Sight changes all of that by introducing Tarmogoyf. Dan Spero already did a good job talking about why Tarmogoyf is good in Threshold. Personally I think it does fantastic things to the metagame; this is the first truly powerful card to be added to Legacy in a long time. The addition of Tarmogoyf to Legacy has introduced a phenomenon previously seen in every format with the exception of Legacy: the race to find the best way to abuse a strategy. Vintage had Gifts Ungiven, Extended had the Life from the Loam engine, Standard has Dark Confidant, and Time Spiral Block has Mystical Teachings (or Tendrils of Corruption). Some Extended decks played green merely to access Life from the Loam; for a while until Aggro Loam was created Extended simply became about putting Life from the Loam more and more into better decks. Legacy is experiencing a similar revolution with the Lhurgoyf. Tarmogoyf is certainly the most powerful card to be introduced to Legacy in a long time, and I argue that Tarmogoyf is the most powerful creature in all of Legacy. He certainly makes the old metagame concerns with U/G/W Threshold irrelevant.
Goblins cannot beat an early Tarmogoyf. Even if the Lhurgoyf comes out as early as possible, on turn 2, it is going to be at least a 2/3. That makes it immune to almost anything Goblins can throw at it. If your Tarmogoyf is powered by a land and an instant, either Mogg Fanatic’s sacrifice ability or Gempalm Incinerator will turn it to a 3/4 before damage is dealt. On the flip side, if two goblins block a 3/4 Tarmogoyf, they will all die at the same time even if the creature going to the graveyard would make it into a 4/5. But enough with the rules blurb. I went and tested the Goblins versus Threshold matchup a few different ways to try and get a handle on what Tarmogoyf does. The addition of Tarmogoyf makes the matchup much better for Threshold in game 1. For the Goblins decklist, I used one of Christopher Coppola older lists (the one he won the last SCG Duel for Duals), preferring to eschew the newer, 3 Port 3 Fanatic list. Here’s the Goblins base list:
4 Rishadan Port
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wasteland
6 Mountain
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Ringleader
4 Gempalm Incinerator
4 Goblin Piledriver
4 Goblin Warchief
2 Siege-Gang Commander
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Mogg Fanatic
4 Goblin Tinkerer
4 Aether Vial
The first change I tried was to cut the Goblin Tinkerers for Chalice of the Void. This is a change that a few of the Legacy Adepts have been considering since Doug Linn suggested it in an article before Flash was errataed. So the first thing I tested was -4 Goblin Tinkerer, +4 Chalice of the Void. For the Threshold side, I used Dan Spero latest list from his article:
4 Flooded Strand
2 Polluted Delta
2 Windswept Heath
3 Tropical Island
3 Tundra
2 Island
1 Forest
1 Plains
4 Nimble Mongoose
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Meddling Mage
1 Mystic Enforcer
4 Mental Note
4 Serum Visions
4 Force of Will
4 Daze
3 Spell Snare
2 Pithing Needle
4 Brainstorm
4 Swords to Plowshares
Sideboard
1 Mystic Enforcer
3 Armageddon
3 Chill
3 Hydroblast
2 Loaming Shaman
2 Krosan Grip
1 Engineered Explosives
Wow, is that sideboard all over the place. I played some post-sideboard games and I tried out a variety of different sideboard plans.
The first thing I found is that game 1 is suddenly unfavorable. Chalice of the Void was strong (and Needles were less of a factor in testing), but you really have no way to beat an early Tarmogoyf. What ends up happening is that you can get a few creatures on the table, but you can’t reliably point Gempalm Incinerators at it and hope to kill it. In one particularly memorable game the Goblins player ramped Vial up to 5 and played a Siege-Gang Commander. The Threshold player used Explosives to remove the tokens, and managed to attack for the win through another Siege-Gang Commander the next turn. The more hateful thing about Tarmogoyf is that it starts blocking on turn 2 or 3, instead of turn 4 or 5. All of a sudden Threshold is stabilizing at ten or fifteen instead of five, and suddenly the counter deck has enough life to race Goblins.
Chalice of the Void was surprisingly unhelpful in the matchup, but I think in a world where Tarmogoyf doesn’t exist, maindeck Chalice is really good. You can easily swap the Tinkerers in post-board in the matchups where Chalice is irrelevant; the theory basically holds that you swap a mediocre card in every matchup for a card that has the potential to be backbreaking in your worst matchups. The problem is that Chalice of the Void simply does not do enough against Threshold and all of a sudden, Threshold is a bad matchup and it’s everywhere. The problem with Chalice of the Void is that it gets poor for you if you do not have a one drop. The reason Tinkerers or Tin-Street Hooligans got added to Goblins in the first place was to make your non-Lackey, non-Vial openings more potent. If you run out a turn 1 Lackey or Aether Vial and it gets stopped, you would rather have the two-drop Goblin Chalice replaced in your hand to put pressure on the board. Chalice of the Void is much more exciting when you have a threat on the board before turn 3 (and Mogg Fanatic doesn’t count). Not only that, but Chalice doesn’t completely shut down the deck. They can still pump Tarmogoyf through them (how poor!) and still get to cast Tarmogoyfs. The main way Threshold won most of the games in testing was on the back of Force of Will, Daze and Tarmogoyf. The cantrips helped, but the creatures are the key to the matchup.
With that in mind I decided to scrap the Chalices. They may be good against combo, but different flavors of Threshold are going to be the main metagame force at upcoming tournaments. What strikes me about Tarmogoyf is how incredibly poor Tormod’s Crypt is against it; chances are Goyf is going to be at least a 2/3 post-Crypt; two or three permanent types are going to reside in each player’s graveyard. I have been in favor of Jotun Grunt in the sideboard of Goblins for a while now, but it seems to be one of the best sideboard options to beat Tarmogoyf. Jotun Grunt will basically take one permanent type each upkeep, which means that in one to two turns your Grunt will beat their Tarmogoyfs. With that said, problems arise because Threshold runs Swords to Plowshares and you don’t. But I’m getting ahead of myself. For the post-sideboard games, I changed the Goblins deck:
… and then sideboarded
+4 Jotun Grunt
-4 Goblin Tinkerer
The first few games sideboard this way for Threshold:
-4 Meddling Mage
-3 Spell Snare
+3 Hydroblast
+2 Loaming Shaman
+1 Engineered Explosives
+1 Mystic Enforcer
… and the rest of the games played out this way:
-4 Meddling Mage
-3 Spell Snare
-1 Mogg Fanatic
+3 Hydroblast
+3 Chill
+1 Engineered Explosives
+1 Mystic Enforcer
I figure the Shamans are better than Meddling Mages. Also, they have the potential to eliminate a Grunt; sure, you lose Threshold but you get to keep a 3/2. I played the post-sideboard games with knowledge of the game 1 decklists but not knowing what sideboard options were coming in. Still it was fair to assume Jotun Grunt in the board given Plateaus in game 1.
Grunt helped the matchup. Goblins got to win several blowout games based on getting Jotun Grunt up and Threshold not finding Swords to Plowshares. The problem is that Threshold basically got to win every other game, including the games where Threshold either outproduced Grunt or simply killed it outright. The problem is that they can answer your Grunt with Swords to Plowshares. If I had to play Goblins, I would devote more slots to anti-Threshold cards, and running Swords to Plowshares in the board would definitely be one of my sideboard cards.
On the flip side, Chill tended to be very good, contrary to my expectations. I shied away from Loaming Shaman just because they tended to be very fragile and gave my opponent a use for their Gempalm Incinerators. The Chills came in to test and because Meddling Mage is pretty poor in the matchup. Because Goblin’s turn 1 play almost never stayed around in the matchup, landing a turn 2 Chill was basically game over. Warchief becomes pretty mediocre when he lands on turn 5, and even if they get to keep Aether Vial around, they still have to play fair.
So I would not play Goblins nowadays. The Threshold matchup is very random and swingy, but it is certainly about even or unfavorable assuming about equal playskill for both players. And you can expect the Threshold players to be good; a lot of strong players are drawn to Threshold and have played it for a long time. The worst part for the Goblins player is that every Threshold player is going to change from Werebears to Tarmogoyfs; this is not a controversial change like the removal of Quirion Dryads for the modern creature base. What is more, the matchup depends a large part on how many Tarmogoyfs your opponent draws. I would guess that you can expect to play against Threshold at least once, and probably twice, at an any given tournament. Would you honestly let whether you Top 8 or not come down to how many Tarmogoyfs your opponent finds? Even if you can match Tarmogoyfs card for card, they have cantrips and you don’t.
So what deck would I play? Let me start by saying I think it is wrong to try and run the UWR deck in its current form. The deck pre-supposes being able to beat their creatures with yours, and you simply cannot guarantee that. Depending on how the metagame adapts you might be able to change the deck to be a force, but not anymore. Similarly, most of the midrange Green/x decks, like Feldman’s Macey Rock-style offering from Grand Prix: Columbus, seem very poor against Tarmogoyf. Oops, your Deranged Hermits and Masticores can no longer profitably go toe to toe with Threshold’s best creature. Nice Ravenous Baloth or Loxodon Hierarch, meet my 4/5.
You cannot beat Threshold on the ground anymore, this is certain. Even if you have your own Tarmogoyfs, they simply bounce off each other (unless you run bounce). So you have three ways to approach the metagame. You can win in the air, if you think you can reliably race Tarmogoyfs. I am skeptical of Faerie Stompy’s ability to race in the air with anything but the nut Sea Drake draw. You can try and rule the ground with your own Tarmogoyfs, pump spells, equipment, bounce, and bigger creatures if you can find any that are playable. Or you can try to make the entire fight on the ground irrelevant. This was the approach my Confinement Slide deck took, and in a month I hope to present a deck that will do just that (I need more testing results). The problem is that the cards that make Tarmogoyf a credible threat also make it easy for Threshold to beat combo decks.
So I daresay U/G/W Threshold is the deck to beat. You need White for Swords to Plowshares to have any hope of gaining Tarmogoyf advantage, you need blue to beat counters, and you need green lands to let you cast Tarmogoyf. I don’t think Dan’s deck is the best possible realization of the concept. You probably need more Engineered Explosives to stop the increasingly prevalent Empty the Warrens combo kill, and I definitely want access to Stifle (nice 12 fetchlands, Patrick Chapin). Spell Snare is an interesting idea, but I would definitely consider replacing those slots with Stifle. The combo decks are definitely weaker to Stifle than Spell Snare, and Spell Snare only has a few good targets in the mirror. I would also consider borrowing the Sensei’s Divining Top plus Counterbalance package from the more successful U/G/R Threshold builds.
Next month I want to present the deck that I thought was the best GP choice in the pre-Flash world. I just have to get more testing in the post-Tarmogoyf world.