fbpx

The September Vintage Metagame Breakdown

This week Pip produces the usual numbers, takes a look at the Vintage Watch List, and then riffs about a resurgence of Psychatog decks before analyzing some of the more lamentable decks seen at one of the GenCon Vintage events. If you are looking to stay on top of the Vintage metagame or play in the upcoming StarCityGames.com “Power Nine” tournaments, this article is a must read.

2004-08-14 Seattle, WA (54 players)

1. Modular

2. U/B/G/R Psychatog

3. Stacker

4. Turboland

5. U/R Fish

6. Landstill

7. U/R Fish

8. Trinistax


2004-09-05 Turin (114 players)

1. Stacker

2. 4C Control

3. TPS

4. Control Slaver (no Drains!)

5. wMUD

6. R/U/G Bazaar Madness

7. Trinistax

8. MUD


2004-09-11 Waterbury (187 players)

1. Control Slaver

2. DeathLong

3. TPS

4. Mono-Blue

5. Mono-Blue Belcher

6. Control Slaver

7. TPS

8. B/U/G Psychatog


2004-09-12 Dulmen (108 players)

1. 4C Control

2. 4C Control

3. U/G Bazaar Madness

4. Mono-Blue

5. TPS

6. R/U/G Bazaar Madness

7. Control Slaver

8. Control Slaver


2004-09-12 Dreamers (Minnesota) (57 players)

1. Dragon

2. Modular

3. Salvagers

4. U/B/R TPS

5. Oshawa Stompy

6. 4C Control

7. U/B Masknought

8. Landstill


2004-09-12 Trento (Italy) (58 players)

1. Dragon

2. 4C Control

3. MUD

4. Workshop Slaver

5. U/B/R TPS

6. Landstill

7. 4C Control

8. TPS


2004-09-25 TMD Championship III (94 players)

1. Stacker

2. Dragon

3. Mono-Blue

4. Mono-Blue

5. B/U/G Psychatog

6. U/R Fish

7. Landstill

8. Trinistax


2004-09-26 Piacenza (239 players)

1. Stacker

2. U/B/R Psychatog

3. wMUD

4. 4C Control

5. Dragon

6. TPS

7. U/B/R Psychatog

8. U/B/R Psychatog


Eight tournaments totaled

(54,57,58,94,108,114,187,239 = 113.9 players average)


8 TPS (3,3,4,5,5,6,7,8)

7 4C Control (1,2,2,2,4,6,7)

6 Psychatog (2,2,5,7,8,8)

5 Control Slaver (1,4,6,7,8)

4 Stacker (1,1,1,3)

4 Dragon (1,1,2,5)

4 Mono-Blue (3,4,4,4)

4 MUD/wMUD (3,3,5,8)*

4 Landstill (6,6,7,8)

3 Bazaar Madness (3,6,6)

3 Fish (5,6,7)

3 Trinistax (7,8,8)

2 Modular (1,2)

1 DeathLong (2)

1 Salvagers (3)

1 Turboland (4)

1 Workshop Slaver (4)

1 Mono-Blue Belcher (5)

1 Oshawa Stompy (5)

1 U/B Masknought (7)

* : 2 MUD, 2 wMUD


(1) State of the Metagame

Metagame Occurrence Percentages

(Archetypes under 0.5% average excluded.)

Mean% – Apr., May., Jun., Jul., Aug., Sep.

12.0% – _9.7, 14.6, 19.6, _9.7, _7.5, 10.9 4C Control

11.5% – _8.5, _8.3, _8.9, 11.1, 17.5, 14.1 Storm Combo

_8.3% – _8.5, 10.4, 10.7, _8.3, _2.5, _9.4 Hulk Smash

_5.7% – _6.9, _4.2, _8.9, _5.6, _2.5, _6.3 Dragon

_5.4% – _1.4, _2.1, _7.2, _2.8, 12.5, _6.3 Stacker

_5.2% – _4.2, _2.1, _3.6, _6.9, 10.0, _4.7 Stax

_5.0% – _2.8, _6.3, _0.0, _6.9, 10.0, _4.7 Fish

_4.8% – _4.2, _6.3, _1.8, _1.4, _7.5, _7.8 Control Slavery

_4.6% – _4.2, _6.3, _5.4, _6.9, _0.0, _4.7 Bazaar Madness (R/G, R/U/G)

_4.6% – _2.8, _2.1, _0.0, 13.9, _2.5, _6.3 MUD / wMUD

_3.3% – _5.6, _2.1, _3.6, _4.2, _2.5, _1.6 Workshop Slavery

_2.2% – _1.4, _4.2, _7.2, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 FCG / Gobvantage

_3.1% – _1.4, _6.3, _5.4, _2.8, _2.5, _0.0 GAT

_2.9% – _4.2, _4.2, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0, _6.3 Landstill

_2.5% – _1.4, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _5.0, _6.3 Mono-Blue

_2.3% – _5.6, _4.2, _1.8, _0.0, _2.5, _0.0 TnT

_2.3% – _4.2, _0.0, _5.4, _4.2, _0.0, _0.0 Affinity

_2.1% – _1.4, _2.1, _5.4, _1.4, _2.5, _0.0 Belcher

_1.2% – _4.2, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _3.1 Modular

_1.1% – _0.0, _2.1, _1.8, _0.0, _2.5, _0.0 7/10 Split

_1.1% – _4.2, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 Rector

_1.0% – _4.2, _0.0, _1.8, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 Vengeur Masque

_0.7% – _0.0, _4.2, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 R/G Beatz

_0.7% – _0.0, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _2.5, _0.0 U/G Madness

_0.6% – _0.0, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _1.6 Oshawa Stompy

_0.5% – _1.4, _0.0, _0.0, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0 Goblin Sligh

_0.5% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0 Kiodo CounterBurn

_0.5% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0 Zombie Infestation


Data Period – # unique archetypes (per T8) [number of archetypes in each Top 8] = [average]

2004-Apr – 28 archetypes (3.1 / T8) 7,8,7,7,8,8,5,6,7 = 7.0

2004-May – 21 archetypes (3.5 / T8) 7,6,6,5,7,7 = 6.3

2004-Jun – 18 archetypes (2.6 / T8) 6,5,7,6,8,6,5 = 6.1


—–Fifth Dawn legal

2004-Jul – 19 archetypes (2.1 / T8) 7,7,6,5,7,6,5,6,6 = 6.1

2004-Aug – 19 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 7,8,7,8,5 = 7.0

2004-Sep – 20 archetypes (2.5 / T8) 7,7,8,6,8,6,7,6 = 6.9


If you compare this month’s archetype chart with August’s, you’ll see a dramatic shortening effect. This is because several decks, like Sligh, SuperGro, and EBA all fell off of the 0.5% threshold. Much like the Mighty Morphin’ Power Rangers, Type One is using fancy jewelry to evolve into something bigger, badder, and more spandex-clad than ever before. I am always intrigued by how many and which decks make it above five percent in a given month, and this time almost half of all the archetypes that were played were at that level. That screams “diverse”, as does the fact that it includes such anti-hype decks as Landstill.


The effects of hype are of course impossible to isolate from any other influence on players’ deck choices, but there’s rarely been a deck so derided in Type One after as much success as Landstill. JP Meyer has made it almost his personal nemesis, and even I’ve gotten in on the bashing. With Crucible of Worlds propagating Wastelands everywhere, and Landstill’s use of Nevinyrral’s Disk making it harder to use its own Crucibles, I would have expected it to decrease in viability. I’m still lost on how Landstill does well with what is likely the slowest win plan in the format and very limited abuse of Mana Drain, but hey, whatever works. I, of all people, can’t argue with results.


Speaking of hyped and anti-hyped decks, [segue music track].


(2) Who Cut What From Tog Now?

One of the decks T1ers (and especially JP Meyer) have been fascinated by since Carl Winter GenCon 2003 win is “Hulk Smash” a.k.a Psychatog. Alternatively, like Ben Kowal, many players just love to hate it. Classically, the Tog-haters were from the “Keeper” group of players, who were upset that they could lose to Duress. Then Exalted Angel/Skeletal Scrying was supposed to provide the momentum to keep 4C Control from losing to Togs. Then Fish came into the limelight for fifteen minutes or so, rendering Tog “instantly unviable” to many commentators. Crucible didn’t help matters, and neither did Steve Menendian’s Mono-Blue success.


Now that Fish is back to its appropriate levels of budget-only play, though, there’s room for discussion of how to make Psychatog compatible with threats like Crucible and Back to Basics. A few people still think that four colors is the way to go. In the past, B/U/G was a relatively common configuration to allow more basic islands, and occasionally Back to Basics was included. Andy Probasco a.k.a. Brass Man (and perhaps even better known for his resemblance to the Feminist of the Far East, JP Meyer) has achieved fame and fortune with his B/U/G version recently at both of the biggest Northeastern tournaments of the month. His position is that REB is the main thing to miss about Red in Tog, because Oxidize and Ground Seal cover the territory of Rack and Ruin adequately.


From January through July, 11 B/U/G and 28 B/U/G/R Psychatog decks made it into my reports (the latter half of that timeframe is almost exclusively B/U/G/R), with one lone U/B/R in August to represent the archetype. This seems like a decisive testament to the necessity of Green in the deck, and a signal that Tog lives or dies in the sideboard, with cards like Red Elemental Blast and Rack and Ruin saving the deck for most of the summer. The basis of Type One Tog has often been cited to be the Berserk “combo” win. So when September plops a Top 8 listing swamped with three non-Berserk Tog decks, what’s the explanation?


One of the under-recognized factors here is that Tog numbers have long been driven primarily by Europe, especially Italy. They play less aggro-control and more prison or combo, encouraging the use of Red to escape multi-part MUD locks, for example. While JP Meyer made the case that Stax/prison should be beaten by playing a Psychatog immediately and racing their Smokestack with Berserk, the Italians aim to up their chances with removal accessible by their full quartet of Cunning Wishes.


Judging by the fact that in 239 players, three of them were playing the U/B/R variant, and they all made Top 8, Tog players have a new mission: figuring out how often they kill with Berserk, and how many turns slower those instances are without the Berserk. Those two questions should provide enough information to select the colors for the Tog decks of the future.


(3) Pip’s Watch List

In terms of appearances per Top 8:

Mar., Apr., May., Jun., Jul., Aug., Sep.

_3.1, _3.3, _4.0, _4.0, _3.1, _3.6, _3.4 – 27 Yawgmoth’s Will

10.2, _9.3, 13.8, 10.3, _8.0, _8.6, 13.3 – 106 Mana Drain

_4.7, _8.9, _4.2, _6.0, _9.8, 11.4, _7.5 – 60 Mishra’s Workshop

____, ____, ____, _0.4, _4.6, _8.2, _7.3 – 58 Crucible of Worlds

_6.3, _6.3, _8.5, _8.9, _6.1, _4.2, _6.6 – 53 Cunning Wish

_4.0, _4.7, _4.0, _4.6, _4.8, _6.4, _4.6 – 37 Dark Ritual

_3.0, _1.3, _1.8, _1.9, _0.4, _1.8, _2.0 – 16 Elvish Spirit Guide


There’s nothing particularly alarming here, though I’m especially sensitive to Mana Drain averages nearing half of all Top 8 decks. The card which everyone was watching most closely this month was (and still is) Crucible. Fortunately, after a wave of decks using it were introduced into the environment, it looks like it might be tapering off to a reasonable level. Like with the Psychatog example above, decks are able to adapt much more than was initially expected, and don’t just roll over to anything that can put a Crucible on the table. Type One has a lot of room for cards that randomly drop out of the sky and win the game brainlessly, and time will tell whether Crucible is more or less dangerous than the average.


(4) Card Counts From Jeek

121 Island

26 Mountain

26 Swamp

18 Forest

3 Plains

2 Snow-Covered Swamp



146 Polluted Delta

61 Flooded Strand

11 Bloodstained Mire

6 Wooded Foothills



98 Volcanic Island

93 Underground Sea

32 Tropical Island

30 Tundra

10 Bayou

2 Taiga


59 Mox Sapphire

56 Black Lotus

53 Mox Ruby

51 Ancestral Recall

51 Mox Jet

51 Mox Pearl

51 Sol Ring

48 Time Walk

46 Mox Emerald

42 Strip Mine

33 Demonic Tutor

33 Mana Crypt

33 Mystical Tutor

27 Tolarian Academy

27 Yawgmoth’s Will

26 Library of Alexandria

25 Mana Vault

23 Memory Jar

23 Tinker

23 Vampiric Tutor

20 Fact or Fiction

15 Lotus Petal

14 Timetwister

11 Mind Twist

10 Balance

10 Wheel of Fortune

9 Mind’s Desire

9 Windfall

9 Yawgmoth’s Bargain

8 Necropotence

7 Time Spiral

5 Frantic Search

5 Regrowth

4 Lion’s Eye Diamond

3 Crop Rotation

2 Burning Wish

2 Chrome Mox

2 Demonic Consultation

2 Entomb

1 Enlightened Tutor

1 Fastbond

1 Grim Monolith

1 Mox Diamond

1 Stroke of Genius


184 Force of Will

153 Wasteland

144 Brainstorm

106 Mana Drain

85 Duress

78 Red Elemental Blast

74 Chalice of the Void

68 Rack and Ruin

60 Mishra’s Workshop

59 Tormod’s Crypt

58 Crucible of Worlds

56 Goblin Welder

53 Cunning Wish

52 Blue Elemental Blast

52 Trinisphere

51 Fire / Ice

41 Stifle

40 Accumulated Knowledge

40 Tangle Wire

38 Thirst for Knowledge

37 Dark Ritual

37 Smokestack

36 Intuition

34 Triskelion

32 Energy Flux

31 Bazaar of Baghdad

30 Mishra’s Factory

30 Squee, Goblin Nabob

28 Metalworker

28 Standstill

26 Ancient Tomb

26 Hurkyl’s Recall

26 Misdirection

26 Swords to Plowshares

25 Blood Moon

25 Hydroblast

25 Skeletal Scrying

25 Sundering Titan

24 City of Brass

23 Deep Analysis

23 Null Rod

22 Gorilla Shaman

22 Sphere of Resistance

21 Darksteel Colossus

21 Rebuild

20 Mana Leak

19 Chain of Vapor

19 Juggernaut

18 Faerie Conclave

18 Karn, Silver Golem

18 Tendrils of Agony

17 Back to Basics

17 Nevinyrral’s Disk

16 Basking Rootwalla

16 Control Magic

16 Elvish Spirit Guide

16 Exalted Angel

16 Oath of Druids

16 Worldgorger Dragon

15 Damping Matrix

15 Wild Mongrel

14 Animate Dead

14 Arcbound Crusher

14 Echoing Truth

14 Powder Keg

14 Psychatog

14 Pyroblast

13 Decree of Justice

13 Impulse

13 Mindslaver

13 Pernicious Deed

13 Xantid Swarm

12 Circular Logic

12 Cloud of Faeries

12 Coffin Purge

12 Gemstone Mine

12 Grim Lavamancer

12 Ophidian

12 Oxidize

12 Spiketail Hatchling

12 Tsabo’s Web

11 Duplicant

11 Engineered Explosives

11 Necromancy

11 Propaganda

10 City of Traitors

10 Gush

10 Naturalize

10 Platinum Angel

10 Shattering Pulse

10 Shivan Reef

9 Disenchant

9 Ground Seal

8 Arcbound Ravager

8 Curiosity

8 Daze

8 Razormane Masticore

8 Skullclamp

7 Arrogant Wurm

7 Morphling

7 Sword of Fire and Ice

6 Annul

6 Counterspell

6 Dance of the Dead

6 Flametongue Kavu

6 Hidden Gibbons

6 Jester’s Cap

6 Old Man of the Sea

5 Verdant Force

5 Viashino Heretic

4 Ambassador Laquatus

4 Auriok Salvagers

4 Blinkmoth Nexus

4 Brain Freeze

4 Careful Study

4 Chill

4 Compulsion

4 Cranial Plating

4 Death Wish

4 Exploration

4 Frogmite

4 Horn of Greed

4 Illusionary Mask

4 Meditate

4 Merchant Scroll

4 Myr Retriever

4 Myr Servitor

4 Pentavus

4 Phyrexian Dreadnought

4 Pyrite Spellbomb

4 River Boa

4 Roar of the Wurm

4 Serrated Arrows

4 Snuff Out

4 Survival of the Fittest

4 Trinket Mage

4 Voidmage Prodigy

4 Wonder

3 Artifact Mutation

3 Berserk

3 Cursed Scroll

3 Darksteel Citadel

3 Daru Stinger

3 Defense Grid

3 Ebony Charm

3 Fling

3 Gaea’s Blessing

3 Genesis Chamber

3 Glimmervoid

3 Hidden Guerrillas

3 Lava Dart

3 Myr Enforcer

3 Pyrostatic Pillar

3 Serum Powder

3 Troll Ascetic

3 Vendetta

2 AEther Spellbomb

2 Caller of the Claw

2 Copy Artifact

2 Diabolic Edict

2 Fabricate

2 Firestorm

2 Ghastly Demise

2 Gilded Lotus

2 Goblin Charbelcher

2 Krosan Reclamation

2 Living Wish

2 Mana Severance

2 Masticore

2 Maze of Ith

2 Mind’s Eye

2 Night’s Whisper

2 Ornithopter

2 Petrified Field

2 Rapid Decay

2 Seasinger

2 Sliver Queen

2 Staff of Domination

2 Su-Chi

2 Suq’Ata Firewalker

2 Teferi’s Response

2 Winter Orb

1 Anger

1 Arcane Laboratory

1 Aura Fracture

1 Barbarian Ring

1 Battlefield Scrounger

1 Brass Man

1 Buried Alive

1 Compost

1 Darksteel Ingot

1 Decompose

1 Desperate Research

1 Diminishing Returns

1 Echoing Decay

1 Eternal Witness

1 Glacial Chasm

1 Juntu Stakes – WTF of the Month! (Tie)

1 Lightning Greaves

1 Memnarch

1 Moat

1 Mogg Salvage

1 Primitive Justice

1 Ray of Revelation

1 Shallow Grave

1 Simplify

1 Sphere of Law

1 Starstorm

1 Tainted Pact

1 Temporal Fissure – WTF of the Month! (Tie)

1 The Abyss

1 Viridian Zealot

1 Zombie Infestation

1 Zuran Orb


Philip Stanton

philip.stanton at themanadrain.com


Bonus Section: How bad is a sanctioned tournament at a convention?

Here’s the quick explanation: I managed to get the complete stack of 79 decklists from the TO (http://pastimes.net/) of the Friday daytime tournament at GenCon. I then typed them up, gaining a new respect for Ben Bleiweiss in the process, because typing up 79 lists full of restricted cards is a lot of work. Amazingly, through no planning, the Battle of Wits deck was the last to be typed up, and I think I was ready to kill Matthew Morrison a.k.a. Dogleg969 at that point, despite the fact that he’s been nice both times I’ve met him. So now that I have this complete data, I thought it would be cool to look beyond the Top 8 at the whole tournament. What did the Top 8 players have to wade through to get where they got?


The long and short of it is that it wasn’t anything special. I’m sure it was worse a couple of years ago, and I think the main Championships had a higher proportion of good to bad decks, but this Friday tournament was a little weak. Only 4C Control managed to get above 5% of the field to play it. There were 48 distinct deck types, if you count each “Indecipherable Nonsense” as unique, and count both non-4CC Blue-based control decks together. And by indecipherable, I don’t mean their handwriting, I mean they sucked so much I couldn’t nail down a name.


I divided the archetypes into two groups for your convenience. The first 63 are the ones that are at least worth discussing seriously. The other 16 were horrible.


10 4C Control

4 Control Slaver

4 U/R Fish

3 7/10 Split

3 GAT

3 R/G Beatz

3 Stacker

3 Suicide Black (1 Void-based)

2 Draw7

2 FCG

2 Hulk Smash

2 MUD (1 Staff of Domination-based)

1 Battle of Wits

1 Belcher

1 Burninator

1 Crucible Workshop Control

1 DeathLong

1 FroGro

1 Goblin Sligh

1 Gobvantage (no Seething)

1 MonoGreen Crucible

1 Parfait

1 R/U/G Bazaar Madness

1 Salvagers-Fish

1 Sligh

1 SuperGro

1 Affinity

1 Three-Deuce

1 TPS

1 Transmute-7/10

1 Turboland

1 Vengeur Masque

1 WTF



3 Indecipherable Nonsense

2 Subpar Blue-based Control

1 Air Elemental Mono-Blue

1 B/R Crap (Skizzik!)

1 Dragons!, !Dragon

1 Egg Tendrils

1 MonoWhite Lifegain

1 OnBC Precon Elves!

1 Scalpelexis.dec

1 T2 Affinity

1 U/W Crap (Sunweb!)

1 U/B Crap (Spinal Embrace!)

1 Unpowered High Tide


Just to let you know how bad it can get, I cringed when I typed this up:


3 Angel of Mercy

1 Staunch Defenders

1 Soltari Foot Soldier

4 Renewed Faith

3 Loxodon Mystic

1 Auriok Shapeshifter

2 Wall of Swords

1 Inviolability

3 Daunting Defender

3 Glorious Anthem

1 Master Decoy

1 Soul Warden

1 Arrest

4 Pacifism

2 Chastise

1 Replenish

2 Defiant Vanguard

2 Sacred Nectar

1 Starlight Invoker

1 Pulse of the Fields

4 Gold Myr

1 Avatar of Hope

1 Catapult Master

1 Ancestor’s Prophet

1 Beloved Chaplain

1 Voice of Truth

2 Demystify

1 Exiled Doomsayer

1 Deftblade Elite

1 Swooping Falcon

2 Topple

2 Serra’s Embrace

1 Disenchant

1 Glow Rider

2 Venerable Monk

1 Akroma’s Devoted

4 Wall of Hope

2 Echoing Calm

2 Recuperate

1 Vulshok Battlegear

1 Soothing Balm


Sideboard

2 Circle of Protection: White

3 Circle of Protection: Black

4 Circle of Protection: Green

2 Circle of Protection: Blue

1 Circle of Protection: Red

2 Red Ward

2 Shield of Duty and Reason

1 White Ward

1 Lightbringer

1 Wurm’s Tooth

1 Ivory Cup

1 Demon’s Horn

1 Lawbringer

1 Blue Ward

1 Kraken’s Eye

1 Throne of Bone


What does this tell us, besides the fact that players can’t fill out deck registration correctly? Well, at most PTQs, the number of people who just have no idea what they’re walking into is usually in the neighborhood of none to a couple. Since this was up around 20%, we’ve got some ‘splainin to do. As I understand, JP and Carl are banding together their powers to do this ‘splainin in the near future, so let the world tremble at their impending oration.