2004-08-14 Seattle, WA (54 players)
1. Modular
2. U/B/G/R Psychatog
3. Stacker
4. Turboland
5. U/R Fish
6. Landstill
7. U/R Fish
8. Trinistax
2004-09-05 Turin (114 players)
1. Stacker
2. 4C Control
3. TPS
4. Control Slaver (no Drains!)
5. wMUD
6. R/U/G Bazaar Madness
7. Trinistax
8. MUD
2004-09-11 Waterbury (187 players)
1. Control Slaver
2. DeathLong
3. TPS
4. Mono-Blue
5. Mono-Blue Belcher
6. Control Slaver
7. TPS
8. B/U/G Psychatog
2004-09-12 Dulmen (108 players)
1. 4C Control
2. 4C Control
3. U/G Bazaar Madness
4. Mono-Blue
5. TPS
6. R/U/G Bazaar Madness
7. Control Slaver
8. Control Slaver
2004-09-12 Dreamers (Minnesota) (57 players)
1. Dragon
2. Modular
3. Salvagers
4. U/B/R TPS
5. Oshawa Stompy
6. 4C Control
7. U/B Masknought
8. Landstill
2004-09-12 Trento (Italy) (58 players)
1. Dragon
2. 4C Control
3. MUD
4. Workshop Slaver
5. U/B/R TPS
6. Landstill
7. 4C Control
8. TPS
2004-09-25 TMD Championship III (94 players)
1. Stacker
2. Dragon
3. Mono-Blue
4. Mono-Blue
5. B/U/G Psychatog
6. U/R Fish
7. Landstill
8. Trinistax
2004-09-26 Piacenza (239 players)
1. Stacker
2. U/B/R Psychatog
3. wMUD
4. 4C Control
5. Dragon
6. TPS
7. U/B/R Psychatog
8. U/B/R Psychatog
Eight tournaments totaled
(54,57,58,94,108,114,187,239 = 113.9 players average)
8 TPS (3,3,4,5,5,6,7,8)
7 4C Control (1,2,2,2,4,6,7)
6 Psychatog (2,2,5,7,8,8)
5 Control Slaver (1,4,6,7,8)
4 Stacker (1,1,1,3)
4 Dragon (1,1,2,5)
4 Mono-Blue (3,4,4,4)
4 MUD/wMUD (3,3,5,8)*
4 Landstill (6,6,7,8)
3 Bazaar Madness (3,6,6)
3 Fish (5,6,7)
3 Trinistax (7,8,8)
2 Modular (1,2)
1 DeathLong (2)
1 Salvagers (3)
1 Turboland (4)
1 Workshop Slaver (4)
1 Mono-Blue Belcher (5)
1 Oshawa Stompy (5)
1 U/B Masknought (7)
* : 2 MUD, 2 wMUD
(1) State of the Metagame
Metagame Occurrence Percentages
(Archetypes under 0.5% average excluded.)
Mean% – Apr., May., Jun., Jul., Aug., Sep.
12.0% – _9.7, 14.6, 19.6, _9.7, _7.5, 10.9 4C Control
11.5% – _8.5, _8.3, _8.9, 11.1, 17.5, 14.1 Storm Combo
_8.3% – _8.5, 10.4, 10.7, _8.3, _2.5, _9.4 Hulk Smash
_5.7% – _6.9, _4.2, _8.9, _5.6, _2.5, _6.3 Dragon
_5.4% – _1.4, _2.1, _7.2, _2.8, 12.5, _6.3 Stacker
_5.2% – _4.2, _2.1, _3.6, _6.9, 10.0, _4.7 Stax
_5.0% – _2.8, _6.3, _0.0, _6.9, 10.0, _4.7 Fish
_4.8% – _4.2, _6.3, _1.8, _1.4, _7.5, _7.8 Control Slavery
_4.6% – _4.2, _6.3, _5.4, _6.9, _0.0, _4.7 Bazaar Madness (R/G, R/U/G)
_4.6% – _2.8, _2.1, _0.0, 13.9, _2.5, _6.3 MUD / wMUD
_3.3% – _5.6, _2.1, _3.6, _4.2, _2.5, _1.6 Workshop Slavery
_2.2% – _1.4, _4.2, _7.2, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 FCG / Gobvantage
_3.1% – _1.4, _6.3, _5.4, _2.8, _2.5, _0.0 GAT
_2.9% – _4.2, _4.2, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0, _6.3 Landstill
_2.5% – _1.4, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _5.0, _6.3 Mono-Blue
_2.3% – _5.6, _4.2, _1.8, _0.0, _2.5, _0.0 TnT
_2.3% – _4.2, _0.0, _5.4, _4.2, _0.0, _0.0 Affinity
_2.1% – _1.4, _2.1, _5.4, _1.4, _2.5, _0.0 Belcher
_1.2% – _4.2, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _3.1 Modular
_1.1% – _0.0, _2.1, _1.8, _0.0, _2.5, _0.0 7/10 Split
_1.1% – _4.2, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 Rector
_1.0% – _4.2, _0.0, _1.8, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 Vengeur Masque
_0.7% – _0.0, _4.2, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 R/G Beatz
_0.7% – _0.0, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _2.5, _0.0 U/G Madness
_0.6% – _0.0, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _1.6 Oshawa Stompy
_0.5% – _1.4, _0.0, _0.0, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0 Goblin Sligh
_0.5% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0 Kiodo CounterBurn
_0.5% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0 Zombie Infestation
Data Period – # unique archetypes (per T8) [number of archetypes in each Top 8] = [average]
2004-Apr – 28 archetypes (3.1 / T8) 7,8,7,7,8,8,5,6,7 = 7.0
2004-May – 21 archetypes (3.5 / T8) 7,6,6,5,7,7 = 6.3
2004-Jun – 18 archetypes (2.6 / T8) 6,5,7,6,8,6,5 = 6.1
—–Fifth Dawn legal
2004-Jul – 19 archetypes (2.1 / T8) 7,7,6,5,7,6,5,6,6 = 6.1
2004-Aug – 19 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 7,8,7,8,5 = 7.0
2004-Sep – 20 archetypes (2.5 / T8) 7,7,8,6,8,6,7,6 = 6.9
If you compare this month’s archetype chart with August’s, you’ll see a dramatic shortening effect. This is because several decks, like Sligh, SuperGro, and EBA all fell off of the 0.5% threshold. Much like the Mighty Morphin’ Power Rangers, Type One is using fancy jewelry to evolve into something bigger, badder, and more spandex-clad than ever before. I am always intrigued by how many and which decks make it above five percent in a given month, and this time almost half of all the archetypes that were played were at that level. That screams “diverse”, as does the fact that it includes such anti-hype decks as Landstill.
The effects of hype are of course impossible to isolate from any other influence on players’ deck choices, but there’s rarely been a deck so derided in Type One after as much success as Landstill. JP Meyer has made it almost his personal nemesis, and even I’ve gotten in on the bashing. With Crucible of Worlds propagating Wastelands everywhere, and Landstill’s use of Nevinyrral’s Disk making it harder to use its own Crucibles, I would have expected it to decrease in viability. I’m still lost on how Landstill does well with what is likely the slowest win plan in the format and very limited abuse of Mana Drain, but hey, whatever works. I, of all people, can’t argue with results.
Speaking of hyped and anti-hyped decks, [segue music track].
(2) Who Cut What From Tog Now?
One of the decks T1ers (and especially JP Meyer) have been fascinated by since Carl Winter GenCon 2003 win is “Hulk Smash” a.k.a Psychatog. Alternatively, like Ben Kowal, many players just love to hate it. Classically, the Tog-haters were from the “Keeper” group of players, who were upset that they could lose to Duress. Then Exalted Angel/Skeletal Scrying was supposed to provide the momentum to keep 4C Control from losing to Togs. Then Fish came into the limelight for fifteen minutes or so, rendering Tog “instantly unviable” to many commentators. Crucible didn’t help matters, and neither did Steve Menendian’s Mono-Blue success.
Now that Fish is back to its appropriate levels of budget-only play, though, there’s room for discussion of how to make Psychatog compatible with threats like Crucible and Back to Basics. A few people still think that four colors is the way to go. In the past, B/U/G was a relatively common configuration to allow more basic islands, and occasionally Back to Basics was included. Andy Probasco a.k.a. Brass Man (and perhaps even better known for his resemblance to the Feminist of the Far East, JP Meyer) has achieved fame and fortune with his B/U/G version recently at both of the biggest Northeastern tournaments of the month. His position is that REB is the main thing to miss about Red in Tog, because Oxidize and Ground Seal cover the territory of Rack and Ruin adequately.
From January through July, 11 B/U/G and 28 B/U/G/R Psychatog decks made it into my reports (the latter half of that timeframe is almost exclusively B/U/G/R), with one lone U/B/R in August to represent the archetype. This seems like a decisive testament to the necessity of Green in the deck, and a signal that Tog lives or dies in the sideboard, with cards like Red Elemental Blast and Rack and Ruin saving the deck for most of the summer. The basis of Type One Tog has often been cited to be the Berserk “combo” win. So when September plops a Top 8 listing swamped with three non-Berserk Tog decks, what’s the explanation?
One of the under-recognized factors here is that Tog numbers have long been driven primarily by Europe, especially Italy. They play less aggro-control and more prison or combo, encouraging the use of Red to escape multi-part MUD locks, for example. While JP Meyer made the case that Stax/prison should be beaten by playing a Psychatog immediately and racing their Smokestack with Berserk, the Italians aim to up their chances with removal accessible by their full quartet of Cunning Wishes.
Judging by the fact that in 239 players, three of them were playing the U/B/R variant, and they all made Top 8, Tog players have a new mission: figuring out how often they kill with Berserk, and how many turns slower those instances are without the Berserk. Those two questions should provide enough information to select the colors for the Tog decks of the future.
(3) Pip’s Watch List
In terms of appearances per Top 8:
Mar., Apr., May., Jun., Jul., Aug., Sep.
_3.1, _3.3, _4.0, _4.0, _3.1, _3.6, _3.4 – 27 Yawgmoth’s Will
10.2, _9.3, 13.8, 10.3, _8.0, _8.6, 13.3 – 106 Mana Drain
_4.7, _8.9, _4.2, _6.0, _9.8, 11.4, _7.5 – 60 Mishra’s Workshop
____, ____, ____, _0.4, _4.6, _8.2, _7.3 – 58 Crucible of Worlds
_6.3, _6.3, _8.5, _8.9, _6.1, _4.2, _6.6 – 53 Cunning Wish
_4.0, _4.7, _4.0, _4.6, _4.8, _6.4, _4.6 – 37 Dark Ritual
_3.0, _1.3, _1.8, _1.9, _0.4, _1.8, _2.0 – 16 Elvish Spirit Guide
There’s nothing particularly alarming here, though I’m especially sensitive to Mana Drain averages nearing half of all Top 8 decks. The card which everyone was watching most closely this month was (and still is) Crucible. Fortunately, after a wave of decks using it were introduced into the environment, it looks like it might be tapering off to a reasonable level. Like with the Psychatog example above, decks are able to adapt much more than was initially expected, and don’t just roll over to anything that can put a Crucible on the table. Type One has a lot of room for cards that randomly drop out of the sky and win the game brainlessly, and time will tell whether Crucible is more or less dangerous than the average.
(4) Card Counts From Jeek
121 Island
26 Mountain
26 Swamp
18 Forest
3 Plains
2 Snow-Covered Swamp
146 Polluted Delta
61 Flooded Strand
11 Bloodstained Mire
6 Wooded Foothills
98 Volcanic Island
93 Underground Sea
32 Tropical Island
30 Tundra
10 Bayou
2 Taiga
59 Mox Sapphire
56 Black Lotus
53 Mox Ruby
51 Ancestral Recall
51 Mox Jet
51 Mox Pearl
51 Sol Ring
48 Time Walk
46 Mox Emerald
42 Strip Mine
33 Demonic Tutor
33 Mana Crypt
33 Mystical Tutor
27 Tolarian Academy
27 Yawgmoth’s Will
26 Library of Alexandria
25 Mana Vault
23 Memory Jar
23 Tinker
23 Vampiric Tutor
20 Fact or Fiction
15 Lotus Petal
14 Timetwister
11 Mind Twist
10 Balance
10 Wheel of Fortune
9 Mind’s Desire
9 Windfall
9 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
8 Necropotence
7 Time Spiral
5 Frantic Search
5 Regrowth
4 Lion’s Eye Diamond
3 Crop Rotation
2 Burning Wish
2 Chrome Mox
2 Demonic Consultation
2 Entomb
1 Enlightened Tutor
1 Fastbond
1 Grim Monolith
1 Mox Diamond
1 Stroke of Genius
184 Force of Will
153 Wasteland
144 Brainstorm
106 Mana Drain
85 Duress
78 Red Elemental Blast
74 Chalice of the Void
68 Rack and Ruin
60 Mishra’s Workshop
59 Tormod’s Crypt
58 Crucible of Worlds
56 Goblin Welder
53 Cunning Wish
52 Blue Elemental Blast
52 Trinisphere
51 Fire / Ice
41 Stifle
40 Accumulated Knowledge
40 Tangle Wire
38 Thirst for Knowledge
37 Dark Ritual
37 Smokestack
36 Intuition
34 Triskelion
32 Energy Flux
31 Bazaar of Baghdad
30 Mishra’s Factory
30 Squee, Goblin Nabob
28 Metalworker
28 Standstill
26 Ancient Tomb
26 Hurkyl’s Recall
26 Misdirection
26 Swords to Plowshares
25 Blood Moon
25 Hydroblast
25 Skeletal Scrying
25 Sundering Titan
24 City of Brass
23 Deep Analysis
23 Null Rod
22 Gorilla Shaman
22 Sphere of Resistance
21 Darksteel Colossus
21 Rebuild
20 Mana Leak
19 Chain of Vapor
19 Juggernaut
18 Faerie Conclave
18 Karn, Silver Golem
18 Tendrils of Agony
17 Back to Basics
17 Nevinyrral’s Disk
16 Basking Rootwalla
16 Control Magic
16 Elvish Spirit Guide
16 Exalted Angel
16 Oath of Druids
16 Worldgorger Dragon
15 Damping Matrix
15 Wild Mongrel
14 Animate Dead
14 Arcbound Crusher
14 Echoing Truth
14 Powder Keg
14 Psychatog
14 Pyroblast
13 Decree of Justice
13 Impulse
13 Mindslaver
13 Pernicious Deed
13 Xantid Swarm
12 Circular Logic
12 Cloud of Faeries
12 Coffin Purge
12 Gemstone Mine
12 Grim Lavamancer
12 Ophidian
12 Oxidize
12 Spiketail Hatchling
12 Tsabo’s Web
11 Duplicant
11 Engineered Explosives
11 Necromancy
11 Propaganda
10 City of Traitors
10 Gush
10 Naturalize
10 Platinum Angel
10 Shattering Pulse
10 Shivan Reef
9 Disenchant
9 Ground Seal
8 Arcbound Ravager
8 Curiosity
8 Daze
8 Razormane Masticore
8 Skullclamp
7 Arrogant Wurm
7 Morphling
7 Sword of Fire and Ice
6 Annul
6 Counterspell
6 Dance of the Dead
6 Flametongue Kavu
6 Hidden Gibbons
6 Jester’s Cap
6 Old Man of the Sea
5 Verdant Force
5 Viashino Heretic
4 Ambassador Laquatus
4 Auriok Salvagers
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Brain Freeze
4 Careful Study
4 Chill
4 Compulsion
4 Cranial Plating
4 Death Wish
4 Exploration
4 Frogmite
4 Horn of Greed
4 Illusionary Mask
4 Meditate
4 Merchant Scroll
4 Myr Retriever
4 Myr Servitor
4 Pentavus
4 Phyrexian Dreadnought
4 Pyrite Spellbomb
4 River Boa
4 Roar of the Wurm
4 Serrated Arrows
4 Snuff Out
4 Survival of the Fittest
4 Trinket Mage
4 Voidmage Prodigy
4 Wonder
3 Artifact Mutation
3 Berserk
3 Cursed Scroll
3 Darksteel Citadel
3 Daru Stinger
3 Defense Grid
3 Ebony Charm
3 Fling
3 Gaea’s Blessing
3 Genesis Chamber
3 Glimmervoid
3 Hidden Guerrillas
3 Lava Dart
3 Myr Enforcer
3 Pyrostatic Pillar
3 Serum Powder
3 Troll Ascetic
3 Vendetta
2 AEther Spellbomb
2 Caller of the Claw
2 Copy Artifact
2 Diabolic Edict
2 Fabricate
2 Firestorm
2 Ghastly Demise
2 Gilded Lotus
2 Goblin Charbelcher
2 Krosan Reclamation
2 Living Wish
2 Mana Severance
2 Masticore
2 Maze of Ith
2 Mind’s Eye
2 Night’s Whisper
2 Ornithopter
2 Petrified Field
2 Rapid Decay
2 Seasinger
2 Sliver Queen
2 Staff of Domination
2 Su-Chi
2 Suq’Ata Firewalker
2 Teferi’s Response
2 Winter Orb
1 Anger
1 Arcane Laboratory
1 Aura Fracture
1 Barbarian Ring
1 Battlefield Scrounger
1 Brass Man
1 Buried Alive
1 Compost
1 Darksteel Ingot
1 Decompose
1 Desperate Research
1 Diminishing Returns
1 Echoing Decay
1 Eternal Witness
1 Glacial Chasm
1 Juntu Stakes – WTF of the Month! (Tie)
1 Lightning Greaves
1 Memnarch
1 Moat
1 Mogg Salvage
1 Primitive Justice
1 Ray of Revelation
1 Shallow Grave
1 Simplify
1 Sphere of Law
1 Starstorm
1 Tainted Pact
1 Temporal Fissure – WTF of the Month! (Tie)
1 The Abyss
1 Viridian Zealot
1 Zombie Infestation
1 Zuran Orb
Philip Stanton
philip.stanton at themanadrain.com
Bonus Section: How bad is a sanctioned tournament at a convention?
Here’s the quick explanation: I managed to get the complete stack of 79 decklists from the TO (http://pastimes.net/) of the Friday daytime tournament at GenCon. I then typed them up, gaining a new respect for Ben Bleiweiss in the process, because typing up 79 lists full of restricted cards is a lot of work. Amazingly, through no planning, the Battle of Wits deck was the last to be typed up, and I think I was ready to kill Matthew Morrison a.k.a. Dogleg969 at that point, despite the fact that he’s been nice both times I’ve met him. So now that I have this complete data, I thought it would be cool to look beyond the Top 8 at the whole tournament. What did the Top 8 players have to wade through to get where they got?
The long and short of it is that it wasn’t anything special. I’m sure it was worse a couple of years ago, and I think the main Championships had a higher proportion of good to bad decks, but this Friday tournament was a little weak. Only 4C Control managed to get above 5% of the field to play it. There were 48 distinct deck types, if you count each “Indecipherable Nonsense” as unique, and count both non-4CC Blue-based control decks together. And by indecipherable, I don’t mean their handwriting, I mean they sucked so much I couldn’t nail down a name.
I divided the archetypes into two groups for your convenience. The first 63 are the ones that are at least worth discussing seriously. The other 16 were horrible.
10 4C Control
4 Control Slaver
4 U/R Fish
3 7/10 Split
3 GAT
3 R/G Beatz
3 Stacker
3 Suicide Black (1 Void-based)
2 Draw7
2 FCG
2 Hulk Smash
2 MUD (1 Staff of Domination-based)
1 Battle of Wits
1 Belcher
1 Burninator
1 Crucible Workshop Control
1 DeathLong
1 FroGro
1 Goblin Sligh
1 Gobvantage (no Seething)
1 MonoGreen Crucible
1 Parfait
1 R/U/G Bazaar Madness
1 Salvagers-Fish
1 Sligh
1 SuperGro
1 Affinity
1 Three-Deuce
1 TPS
1 Transmute-7/10
1 Turboland
1 Vengeur Masque
1 WTF
3 Indecipherable Nonsense
2 Subpar Blue-based Control
1 Air Elemental Mono-Blue
1 B/R Crap (Skizzik!)
1 Dragons!, !Dragon
1 Egg Tendrils
1 MonoWhite Lifegain
1 OnBC Precon Elves!
1 Scalpelexis.dec
1 T2 Affinity
1 U/W Crap (Sunweb!)
1 U/B Crap (Spinal Embrace!)
1 Unpowered High Tide
Just to let you know how bad it can get, I cringed when I typed this up:
3 Angel of Mercy
1 Staunch Defenders
1 Soltari Foot Soldier
4 Renewed Faith
3 Loxodon Mystic
1 Auriok Shapeshifter
2 Wall of Swords
1 Inviolability
3 Daunting Defender
3 Glorious Anthem
1 Master Decoy
1 Soul Warden
1 Arrest
4 Pacifism
2 Chastise
1 Replenish
2 Defiant Vanguard
2 Sacred Nectar
1 Starlight Invoker
1 Pulse of the Fields
4 Gold Myr
1 Avatar of Hope
1 Catapult Master
1 Ancestor’s Prophet
1 Beloved Chaplain
1 Voice of Truth
2 Demystify
1 Exiled Doomsayer
1 Deftblade Elite
1 Swooping Falcon
2 Topple
2 Serra’s Embrace
1 Disenchant
1 Glow Rider
2 Venerable Monk
1 Akroma’s Devoted
4 Wall of Hope
2 Echoing Calm
2 Recuperate
1 Vulshok Battlegear
1 Soothing Balm
Sideboard
2 Circle of Protection: White
3 Circle of Protection: Black
4 Circle of Protection: Green
2 Circle of Protection: Blue
1 Circle of Protection: Red
2 Red Ward
2 Shield of Duty and Reason
1 White Ward
1 Lightbringer
1 Wurm’s Tooth
1 Ivory Cup
1 Demon’s Horn
1 Lawbringer
1 Blue Ward
1 Kraken’s Eye
1 Throne of Bone
What does this tell us, besides the fact that players can’t fill out deck registration correctly? Well, at most PTQs, the number of people who just have no idea what they’re walking into is usually in the neighborhood of none to a couple. Since this was up around 20%, we’ve got some ‘splainin to do. As I understand, JP and Carl are banding together their powers to do this ‘splainin in the near future, so let the world tremble at their impending oration.