Ten years ago, Magic was all about Angels and Dragons.

While Kai Budde and Jon Finkel slugged it out with spell-heavy decks like Psychatog and Trix, most casual players were still enamored with Magic’s biggest and baddest creatures. This was before planeswalkers, remember, and even fat vanilla flyers like Mahamoti Djinn were casual all-stars. When Wizards announced that Shivan Dragon and Serra Angel were being re-printed in Seventh Edition, it was a big deal. Not for people who were actually good at the game, of course, but for those of us—and there was a greater percentage of us back then—who played Magic on study room tables and dorm room floors.

Back then, every Angel—no matter how bad—had trade value. Not only were most of them good in casual games, but there were a whole bunch of people who collected them exclusively. This is still somewhat true (check out the foil prices on classic period Angels), but it’s much less prevalent now. For the most part, Titans and planeswalkers have replaced Angels and Dragons in the minds of today’s casual players.

You can tell how far Wizards has come in the past decade by comparing Avacyn Restored to its spiritual successor, Scourge. Billed as "the Dragon set," can you guess how many Dragons it actually had?

Four.

I didn’t believe it either, but go look at the spoiler. There was a card that made Dragons, and a card that turned you into a Dragon, but only four total creatures that currently have the oracle text "Creature — Dragon." I remember cracking each Prerelease pack with excitement, hoping for some Dragon-y goodness, and coming up empty each time.

Avacyn Restored is different. The set is overloaded with cool casual Angels, and in many ways it feels like Scourge done right. At first glance, this appears to be a set brimming with casual cards that will fit into a hundred different kinds of Commander decks. In fact, I would argue that it’s the best Commander set of all time.

In terms of Constructed application, I’ll admit that I was initially kind of underwhelmed. I think a lot of that had to do with my feelings on the top 3-4 mythics in the set, which I believe are overvalued and will not live up to everyone’s lofty expectations.

After writing this review, though, I’m now very bullish on Avacyn Restored. The set has quite a few cards—especially mid-level rares and mythics—that will soon be making an impact on all formats. These packs might not have the same bang-for-your-buck as New Phyrexia, but I’d bet this set will have more significant value cards than Rise of the Eldrazi did. Make no mistake: this is a strong set and will likely be a very popular set.

The release of this expansion also means it’s time to buy in on Innistrad and Dark Ascension cards. We’re all about to start drafting triple Avacyn Restored, which means that Innistrad cards are going to start disappearing from binders and their prices are going to start rising. Check out the price movement of Mirrodin Besieged and New Phyrexia singles from last spring to now if you don’t believe me.

But this article isn’t about Innistrad, Dark Ascension, or New Phyrexia. It’s about Avacyn Restored, and I want to start at the top.

In all of my set reviews, I begin with the mythics. That’s where most of the value lies in a given expansion, and all fifteen of them should be given their due.

Normal rares often lack the breakout potential of a mythic. Consider Hellrider, a card that started preselling at or below a dollar. He’s now a tournament staple and clearly one of the best cards in Dark Ascension, but you can still pick them up here for just four bucks.

Now think back to Olivia Voldaren. She was selling for five dollars due to her mythic status and casual appeal the day before Worlds 2011. Thanks to her performance in a single deck, she was an easy $15-$20 by the following evening. When mythics "hit" they hit big, and you should always be thinking about all of them.

When analyzing value, I feel it’s important to balance the short term price with a reasonable long term projection. When I speak about the short term, I’m talking about two to three months out—when the set redemptions start on Magic Online and the prices have settled in. My long term projections are a little more nebulous depending on the use of the card.

For Standard cards, I’m talking about a full year from now; think about the prices of Scars block cards right now, for example. In reviewing casual cards, though, I’m generally talking about two to three years out—when the cards have all but disappeared from binders and demand has started creeping up. While those might seem like very different time frames, the point I’m trying to make by establishing a long term price is that you should feel okay buying these cards now and knowing that there should be a time down the road when you can get out of them for as much (or more) than you put in. 

I also want to note that this article was written independently from Ben Bleiweiss "The Financial Value of Avacyn Restored." I haven’t talked to Ben about the set’s presale figures, and I sent this article in before his went up. There’s a good chance he’ll come to some different conclusions about many of these cards, and I recommend that you read both articles in order to fully inform yourself about the latest Magic set.

Got it? Awesome. Let’s get started!

Tamiyo, the Moon Sage

Current Price: $39.99

Short Term Future: $24.99

Long Term Future: $14.99

Don’t let the price drop fool you—I like Tamiyo, the Moon Sage a whole lot. I think she’ll see a decent amount of play in Standard and be a casual all-star. Her problem is that she picked the wrong block to pop in on from her Kamigawan home.  

The biggest reason Frost Titan and Dungeon Geists are sitting on the sidelines right now? Lingering Souls. That card (and other token-based aggro and aggro-control strategies) make it hard for Tamiyo, the Moon Sage to protect herself. She’s better against those decks than the other two cards I mentioned because of her -2 ability, of course, and drawing a bunch of cards after they swing in with a pile of tokens is sweet.

But Tamiyo isn’t Jace, the Mind Sculptor. She’s more akin to the other five-drop ‘walkers like Gideon Jura and Garruk, Primal Hunter. Much like those two, she may have her moments in the $30-$40 range, but she should settle in at $15-$20 before long (unless she becomes the flagship of a new control strategy that needs her as a four-of). I just don’t see her price staying at $40.

Think back to the release of M12, though, and remember that the new planeswalkers in that set held their value for months despite seeing almost no play. While I firmly believe that this is ultimately a $15 card, your window to sell on her is going to be long because people adore owning the planeswalkers. If you open a Tamiyo that you don’t have much use for, wait until you get a competitive offer before trading it. Best case, she ends up breaking out and maintaining her value for a long period of time. Worst case, your window to move her at $40 should stay open long enough for you to do so.

Temporal Mastery

Current Price: $39.99

Short Term Future: $19.99

Long Term Future: $14.99

Let’s pretend you’re a Magic developer. Your job description, for the most part, is to take the card designs that the design department gives you and tweak them so that they will be good for the health of the game. It’s the middle of 2011, and you’ve still got some egg on your face over the whole Jace, the Mind Sculptor debacle.

You come into work and see a new card on your desk. It’s a blue mythic rare that lets a player do one of the most "unfun" things in the game: take an extra turn. And they want it to be playable for the same CMC as Time Walk.

How many hundreds of hours are you going to spend playtesting this card to ensure that it isn’t going to break multiple formats?

Temporal Mastery is begging to be broken. It’s obvious, splashy, and amazingly cool. But I sincerely doubt Wizards let this wildcat out of the bag without making darned sure that it wasn’t going to be a major issue. R&D tends to get into trouble when they make blue cards that give players too many choices: Cryptic Command, for example. Temporal Mastery isn’t like that—you need to bend over backwards to take full advantage of it.

I’m sure some people will make it work sometimes in Legacy with Force of Will to pitch it and all kinds of Brainstorms to find it at the right time, but even there it seems more like a single deck role player. It’s a powerful card but it’s not even close to a versatile card, and that’s what makes blue shine.

That said…the early buzz out of Legacy circles seems to contradict my gut feeling on the card. Stephen Menendian and others have said that it’s just as broken as feared, and I simply can’t ignore the findings of players who are far better than me.

So what’s it worth? Well, if it’s overpriced and awkward, it’s probably a $5-$7 card just due to how cool it is. If it’s outstanding in Legacy but awful in Standard, it’s a $25-$30. card due to supply outstripping demand. Remember that for cards to be $40+ in Legacy alone, they need to be super powerful and many years out of print. If it breaks Standard in half a la Jace, the Mind Sculptor, well, then we know it’s worth $80-$100.

This tells me that the $40 price tag is due to the "Jace Tax" as people hedge their bets against missing "the next Jace." That’s not a tax I want to pay for this card. My gut tells me that it might not even be as good as two of the other mythic miracles, but I’m going to lay my money down that it’s good—but not great—in Legacy. To me, that’s a solid $15 card.  

If it warps the format at the first SCG Legacy Open or starts taking down Standard tournaments, though, get your sets immediately.

Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded

Current Price: $24.99

Short Term Future: $19.99

Long Term Future: $19.99

When the dust has settled, I wouldn’t be shocked if little Tibalt is the standout planeswalker of this set.

Is he the most underpowered planeswalker ever? Sure. But Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded costs two mana. Two! For that, we should feel lucky to get one decent ability. In fact, all three of Tibalt’s modes will likely come into play depending on the game. Tibalt here offers exactly what Temporal Mastery doesn’t: versatility. Options. In fact, what two-mana spell in the history of Magic has ever given you more options than this guy?

The random discard hurts sometimes, but this filtering is still going to be a net positive for most red decks. And the fact that he threatens to go ultimate on turn 5 is kind of unreal. With a super aggressive start, there’s a reasonable chance your opponent might not have a chance to attack Tibalt until he’s ready to steal your team of blockers and swing for the win.

Tibalt will be a four-of in most decks that will want to run him, so I can see his price staying high if he’s good. Mono Red decks are almost never the single best deck in any format, so I don’t see his price hitting the $40+ mark, but I’d expect him to trade at a strong $15-$20 while in Standard. He should have some Modern applications as well.

Avacyn, Angel of Hope

Current Price: $14.99

Short Term Future: $7.99

Long Term Future: $8.99

At eight mana, Avacyn doesn’t compare favorably to Iona in Modern/Legacy Reanimator or Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite / Griselbrand in Standard. She’ll see some fringe play, but I don’t expect her to be a major player in any Constructed format.

Casually, she’s very good. She’ll be a reasonably popular commander for flavor reasons alone and is a great high-end option for casual decks in every format. Akroma, Angel of Wrath is still an $8 card, and I expect Avacyn to be just as popular if not more so.

Sigarda, Host of Herons

Current Price: $14.99

Short Term Future: $12.99

Long Term Future: $9.99

Sigarda, Host of Herons is a hard woman to kill. Put a big enough piece of equipment on her, and your opponent is going to need a Wrath to do the job. Avacyn Restored brings a couple of answers with it, and we’ll get to those later, but that doesn’t stop Sigarda from being both powerful and well positioned.

So why do I think she’ll come down in price? Her two-color cost and status as a five-drop makes her an extremely niche card, as does her "legendary" supertype. She’ll be desired by Standard and Commander players alike, but probably in small quantities. I can see her hovering around the $10 mark for a while, but she probably won’t stay at $15+ unless the format starts moving more her way.

Griselbrand

Current Price: $9.99

Short Term Future: $7.99

Long Term Future: $14.99

Much like Phage and Akroma in Legions (the Onslaught block comparisons continue!), I think casual players will be drawn to both Avacyn and Griselbrand as the "flagship" casual rares of the set.

They could do worse. In the long term, I fully expect Griselbrand and Sigarda, Host of Herons (not to mention Avacyn herself) to switch places on this list. Griselbrand is one of the best cards in the set, and his price will soon reflect that.  

While Griselbrand is arguably even narrower in application to Sigarda, Host of Herons, he’s also quite a lot more powerful and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t see at least a little Legacy play. Drawing seven cards immediately is outstandingly good, and the fact that you can do it right when Griselbrand comes into play makes him a premier reanimation target.

Expect Griselbrand to walk a similar line to Iona, Shield of Emeria. He’ll come down a bit while the set is being drafted and supply outstrips demand, but I expect he’ll settle in as one of the five best cards in Avacyn Restored down the line. Pick up your copies in a couple of months once Magic Online set redemptions start.

Gisela, Blade of Goldnight

Current Price: $7.99

Short Term Future: $4.99

Long Term Future: $4.99

Gisela costs seven mana. One of those mana has to be red and two have to be white. For all that, you get…a big flyer with an excellent ability. She’s an auto-include in Kaalia of the Vast Commander decks (as is half the set, to be fair) and she’s a fine general in her own right, but what are her realistic applications in Constructed beyond that?

For starters, she wreaks unholy havoc on combat. I doubt anyone will ever play her after an attack phase—she basically quadruples the effectiveness of your squad against your opponent’s army. If you and your opponent each have a 4/4 and you play Gisela, they will have to choose between taking eight and chump blocking. To wit, she’s an "all your creatures gain trample" clause away from giving you a permanent overrun.

At $8, though, she’s quite overpriced. Her ability is powerful, but I can’t imagine when you’d run her over Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite. She might have a resurgence once the legendary Praetor rotates, but there’d have to be a Boros deck that needs something like this to lock up the game. I wouldn’t dismiss Gisela out of hand, but she’d need a lot to go right for her to become a breakout hit.

Entreat the Angels

Current Price: $5.99

Short Term Future: $8.99

Long Term Future: $14.99

This card is currently sold out at $5.99, mostly thanks to Patrick Chapin excellent article from last week showing us just how great this card has the potential to be. For the record, I very much agree with him. This is an outstanding finisher that has the potential to shift the game in the middle turns, and I think it’s actually a better card than Temporal Mastery and is likely one of the best four to five cards in the entire set. It’s fair value at normal cost, and its miracle cost is nothing short of absurd.

The fact that this is an Angel card and a token card as well as being good will make this a popular casual pickup too. Get your copies now before everyone else figures out just how good Entreat the Angels actually is.

Bonfire of the Damned

Current Price: $5.99

Short Term Future: $6.99

Long Term Future: $9.99

This card is very good. It’s likely the best Plague Wind variant ever made, and I think it’s being underrated right now because people aren’t used to this effect being Constructed playable.

Bonfire’s biggest issue is drawing it early or opening with it against an aggro deck that it should normally shine against. In those situations, you’ll need an earlier or better sweeper because you’re stuck waiting until turn 5 to Pyroclasm their board. It’s also going to be a dead card in some matchups where their creatures are just too big…but even then, you can use it as a Blaze to finish them off. Did I mention that this card is underrated?

Bruna, Light of Alabaster

Current Price: $5.99

Short Term Future: $3.99

Long Term Future: $2.99

Bruna has a similar problem to Gisela, except that while Gisela just needs you to have other creatures, Bruna needs you to have auras. Lots of them.

Even if you get to six very specific mana, slam this in play, and attack with her…what are you using as your aura of choice? Eldrazi Conscription? Which is somehow in your hand because you’re cheating and playing it in Standard even though it already rotated? Sorry Mike Long, I wasn’t born yesterday.

Even still, Bruna isn’t a total loss. She’s going to be a very popular build-around-me Commander general in the vein of Jhoira of the Ghitu and Uril, the Miststalker. Pick up foils when you can.

Misthollow Griffin

Current Price: $4.99

Short Term Future: $2.99

Long Term Future: $1.99

Barring any Legacy shenanigans with Food Chain, which I think are a little too cute to be good, Misthollow Griffin isn’t going to see much play.

I love that Wizards made this card, and I understand that they wanted to test this ability out on a creature that wouldn’t do much damage if it ended up being more powerful than expected. At the end of the day, though, it’s a 3/3 flyer for four. Not only are their better things to do with four blue mana, (Dungeon Geists comes to mind, and even that is only seeing a little play at the moment), the four-drop slot is the most competitive spot on the curve these days. For a new four-drop to see play, it has to be excellent.

Right now, the current suite of removal spells is just too diverse. It’ll get hit by a Go for the Throat or die in combat far more often than it’ll be exiled, and there just aren’t that many spells or abilities that want you to exile this for great effect. I’m sure someone will pitch this to a Force of Will and live the dream, but honestly I don’t think it matters how many times you get this back from exile. Running this in your deck just puts you behind the curve.

Craterhoof Behemoth

Current Price: $2.99

Short Term Future: $3.99

Long Term Future: $4.99

Yes, I know I spent several paragraphs lambasting both Gisela, Blade of Goldnight and Bruna, Light of Alabaster for costing too much, and now I’m about to write a couple of sentences talking about how good I think the Behemoth is. I’m perfectly aware of my hypocrisy. It’s not that I’m anti-Angel; my binder filled with ~100 Revised Serra Angels says otherwise. I just believe cards that massively affect the board the turn they come down and only cost one color of mana to cast have a lower bar to clear.

At any rate, ramp is a very good deck right now, and there’s a shot that this man is a big enough trump to let you go right over the top of whatever they have. Not only does this actually give you the overrun that Gisela sort of mildly hints at, the Behemoth is agreeable enough to join the fray himself! For eight mana, this card should win the game; I predict that this guy will be doing some of that over the next couple of years.

Remember, too, that big green dudes like this are always popular with the kitchen table crowd. No way should this card be worth less than five dollars. Even Khalni Hydra is worth five dollars, and this is a much better creature.

Malignus

Current Price: $1.99

Short Term Future: $1.99

Long Term Future: $1.99

I love his name. If I had a friend who worked in oncology, I’d get him a pile of these for him to hand out to his patients. I’m also pretty sure this awesome kid is a fan. (He should be king of Australia by this point, right?)

Anyway, Malignus will probably show up in casual formats from time to time. At four mana this would be a very interesting card, but at five the variance is just too high for it to be actually good. In single player games, you simply can’t run a card that’s basically a blank when your opponent has less than six life, right? I can’t imagine this will ever be much of a competitive player.

Primal Surge

Current Price: $1.99

Short Term Future: $1.99

Long Term Future: $1.99

This is probably my favorite card in the set. Not because it’s good, but because it hits at the Timmy/Johnny core of who I am as a player. The idea of building a deck that can go off with this excites me to no end, and I think it’s absolutely perfect for a bulk mythic: cool, exciting, fun, and utterly useless in competitive play.

Descent into Madness

Current Price: $1.99

Short Term Future: $1.99

Long Term Future: $1.99

I don’t know what I can say about a card I don’t expect to ever get cast against me in a game of Magic. Tangle Wire this is not, and this symmetrical effect is going to be almost impossible to break. I can’t think of anything that currently works with this, and I’m not sure what kind of card would need to see print in order for this to work.

Conclusions

Overall, I like the new crop of mythics coming out of Avacyn Restored. It’s a little less top-heavy than recent sets, and I predict there won’t be a single mythic that will stabilize over $20. That said, I think that a whopping seven of them—more than half—will stabilize at $10 or more.

As for the card in the set that I believe will be worth the most? For that, you’ll need to tune in later this week when I rank every single rare in the set from bottom to top.

Until next time —

— Chas Andres