“Yo, dude.”
“Yo yourself, Jack.”
“Whatcha doin’?”
“I’m comparing data from various websites in an effort to get an accurate picture of the Standard metagame.”
“Huh?”
“I’m looking at numbers and trying to decide what they mean.”
“Wow. How long you been doin’ that?”
“A couple of hours.”
“Dude, that sounds like work to me.”
“It isn’t work.”
“Really?”
“Really.
“What do you do at work all day, dude?”
“Mostly, I look at numbers and try to decide what they mean.”
“What did you say you were doing now?”
“Shut up, Jack.”
“All right, man, but I think it’s only fair to warn you several of your friends have hired a goon squad to invade your home and forcibly remove you from your desk.”
“Okay.”
“We’re gonna pay them a huge bonus if they do it during the day so that sunlight might actually hit your retinas sometime this year.”
“That’s nice, Jack.”
“I’m paying out a Franklin if you can’t get back inside for more than an hour.”
“Lovely.”
“Seriously, dude. Why are you doing this to yourself?”
“Regionals is coming up.”
“So? What’s Regionals, dude?”
“Regionals is my only chance to qualify for the US Nationals – stop laughing, Jack!”
“Sorry, dude. Whenever I hear ‘qualify’ and ‘you’ in the same sentence, I can’t help it.”
“With friends like you, is it any wonder I never leave the house?”
“Hey, don’t hang that on me, dude. I didn’t tell you to start playing cards.”
“Fair enough. Anyway, compared to most tourneys I play in, Regionals is huge. We had over four hundred players in my region last year. I like the feeling of a large tournament. I’m not sure why, but it appeals to me. I missed out on a lot of the tournament last year due to an emergency, so I really want to have a good time this year. I only have two problems.”
“You suck.”
“Okay, three problems.”
“You always forget that one, dude.”
“Fortunately, I have you to remind me. Problem number one: I haven’t decided what to play at Regionals.”
“Let me guess: The tournament is tomorrow.”
“No, no, no. It isn’t until May 3rd. I’ve got a little time, but I need to make a decision.”
“Did you say May 3rd, man?”
“Yes. Problem number two: Regionals is on my wedding anniversary.”
“Dude.”
“Yeah.”
“I’m looking at a dead man.”
“Yup.”
“How are you going to get past that, dude?”
“Well, so far I’ve changed the year on her computer to 2002, and swapped out all of the calendars in the house. The rest of the plan involves a lot of prayer – and failing that, begging.”
“Good luck, man. So how does this crap you’re doing fit into this?”
“Well, I’ve formulated a theory.”
“Oh, this should be good…”
“The Onslaught Block is less powerful than the Odyssey Block. That is my opinion – but using it as a given, I come to the conclusion that the metagame shifts are small and predictable. This means that the Standard environment is more stable and easier to navigate than some would have me believe.”
“Dude, I didn’t follow any of that.”
“Okay, let me see if I can break this down for you. You remember the Odyssey Block, right?”
“Yeah, dude. Last year’s new sets.”
“Good. Well, the Odyssey sets had a lot of synergy. The madness mechanic from Torment set everything on its ear. It has been a very influential set. In fact, two of the decks from Odyssey Block Constructed were adapted to be Extended decks with great success. Jack, my poor Aluren deck had to face off against U/G Madness and Psychatog.”
“Poor baby. Here, have a Kleenex.”
“Thanks, Jack. Have a punch in the arm.”
“Ow! Dude!”
“Anyway, the Onslaught Block, while not without its charm, does not carry on the debauchery of its predecessor. It is a slower block. It has less synergy. These facts mean that it doesn’t have the influence over Standard that Odyssey Block does.”
“No offense, dude, but you don’t exactly have a reputation for breaking formats wide open.”
“True, and I’m not going to break this one, either. But my theory, if correct, should help me decide what to play come May 3rd.”
“Unless your woman kills you first.”
“…Unless my woman kills me first. Good point, Jack.”
“So what’s the theory again?”
“The theory is rooted in the fact that Onslaught and Legions have far less influence over Standard than Odyssey, Torment, and Judgment. It is further supported by the idea that Legions has less influence over Standard than Onslaught.”
“Right. What does that mean, dude?”
“It means that I have a boatload of data to look through to find the strongest deck, the deck most likely to land me a qualifying finish in the Regional tournament.”
“You mean all these numbers.”
“Yes, Jack. All these numbers. Since I am supposing that Legions is not a major influence over the Standard metagame, I can look at results from large Standard tournaments from before its release and include them in my tracking.”
“Dude, that must take a while to find those results.”
“Actually, no. Most of the better Magic websites, such as StarCityGames.com, have databases of decks from the major tournaments. In fact, I started off my research by grabbing all of the top eight finishers from States/Champs out of the StarCity deck database.”
“Cool. No muss, no fuss.”
“Pretty much. However, no database is perfect, so I did some quick error checking to find duplicates and other minor errors. I also searched other websites, mostly the sites of local tournament organizers, to see if I could find results of some States tournaments that weren’t reported to the major sites. Fortunately, I was able to find top eight results for Georgia, Arkansas, and Nevada*.”
“Dude, that’s just sick.”
“Hey, I wanted to get the most accurate results I could.”
“You’re sick. Very, very sick.”
“Anyway, before we look at the results, let’s put this into perspective. The Invasion Block had just rotated out of the environment, taking Fact or Fiction with it. Psychatog was once again proclaimed dead as a result – or if not dead, crippled. U/G Madness was left mostly unscathed, although its already shaky mana base took a hit with the loss of Yavimaya Coast. In spite of this, it was the deck with the buzz. Monoblack Control was still considered a contender by some, although others claimed it couldn’t survive in Standard without Phyrexian Arena.”
“Yeah, okay, no one knew what was what. What happened already?”
“This happened.”
The Champs Results: Top Eight Finishers by Percentage
U/G Madness | 19.38% |
G/W Beats | 6.83% |
U/G Opposition | 6.61% |
Sligh | 6.61% |
R/G Beats | 5.95% |
Mono Black Control | 5.51% |
Astroglide | 5.51% |
Four-Color Wake | 3.74% |
R/G Beats Splashing White | 3.74% |
BUG Braids | 3.08% |
2.86% | |
Upheaval/Infestation | 2.86% |
U/G/w | 2.64% |
BUG, No Braids | 2.42% |
R/B Control | 2.42% |
“Dude, that’s not even close.”
“No, it isn’t. The buzz was accurate.”
“Yeah, but this is just top eight stuff, right?”
“Well, yeah. What’s your point, Jack?”
“C’mon, man. Why settle for top eight when you can have the whole enchilada?”
“I only need a top eight to qualify for Nats, Jack.”
“Dude, show me the winners!”
“Fine.”
The Champs Results: First Place by Percentage
U/G Madness | 17.57% |
Astroglide | 10.81% |
G/W Beats | 10.81% |
Sligh | 9.46% |
Mono Black Control | 9.46% |
U/G Opposition | 6.76% |
R/B Control | 6.76% |
R/G Beats | 4.05% |
U/B Aggro | 2.70% |
U/G/w | 2.70% |
Four-Color Wake | 2.70% |
U/G/b | 2.70% |
“U/G Madness again, dude.”
“Yup; that deck is savage. You’ll notice that Astroglide and Sligh are both up there in the standings; that’s important because both of those decks are made possible by Onslaught.”
“So it isn’t like it had no impact, huh?”
“True. Astroglide takes what comparatively little synergy Onslaught possesses and abuses it. Sligh is just fast and aggressive. Aggressive is always a good choice in a largely unknown format.”
“Why do you say an unknown format, dude?”
“Jack, Magic players are like any other group of people on the planet.”
“Meaning?”
“Most of them like to have the answer given to them rather than finding it themselves. The fact is that Champs takes place very soon after the Standard rotation, and the netdeckers don’t have any real evidence that one deck is going to be better than another. Historically, it hasn’t been until after the first Masters series tourney that the strongest decks are apparent.”
“So, what did this Masters thingy reveal this year?”
“Two things. First of all, the obituary for Psychatog was once again premature. Second, a new deck showed up called Beasts. It’s another deck that Onslaught made possible.”
“So maybe this thing is having more influence than you thought, smart guy.”
“Maybe. But the Masters results were overshadowed by this.”
“Hey, I recognize his name.”
“He’s the best, Jack. When the best says ‘This is the strongest deck right now and here’s what I would play,’ people listen. However, it should be noted that Mister Budde is known for preferring decks that don’t depend on creatures overmuch, and when he had the chance to play in a large tournament soon after, he chose Psychatog.”
“Dude. So this was after that Legions thing was legal?”
“Yup. Which immediately raised the question of whether or not the metagame would shift following Kai’s advice.”
“Umm… What was the alternative, dude?”
“There were some interesting experiments going on building decks around a couple of Legions cards. The only question was whether anyone would put something together that could consistently beat R/G Beats and Psychatog.”
“Sounds like a guessing game to me, dude.”
“Well, fortunately for me, some National Qualifiers have already been played.”
“I’m guessing you have numbers.”
“You bet. Kai has spoken, and the world has listened.”
The National Qualifiers: Top Eight Finishers by Percentage.
R/G beats | 20.12% |
U/G Madness | 17.20% |
10.79% | |
G/W beats | 6.71% |
AstroGlide | 6.12% |
Sligh | 5.54% |
Mono black control | 4.37% |
Three-color Wake | 3.79% |
Beasts | 2.92% |
Reanimator | 2.92% |
“Dude, that’s a big change.”
“Yes, it is. Keep in mind it isn’t that the card pool for R/G improved dramatically, it’s that a well-respected player posted a decklist. R/G obviously makes a huge jump. So does Psychatog, a deck that many pro players have shown to still be viable. In other words, this shift in the metagame is not the result of Legions coming into the environment, but the best players defining the metagame for everybody else.”
“Wow, dude. I guess a little endorsement goes a long way.”
“I guess. But check out U/G Madness. The buzz is gone, but it hasn’t slipped much.”
“Yeah, but show me the real results, dude. Show me the flat-out winners.”
“Okey-dokey.”
The National Qualifiers Results: First Place by Percentage
R/G beats | 24.49% |
16.33% | |
U/G Madness | 10.20% |
G/W beats | 8.16% |
Mono black control | 6.12% |
Beasts | 4.08% |
Reanimator | 4.08% |
Sligh | 4.08% |
U/G Threshold | 4.08% |
U/G/b Opposition | 4.08% |
Aqualube | 2.04% |
AstroGlide | 2.04% |
B/G Cemetery | 2.04% |
B/W Clerics | 2.04% |
U/G/w Madness | 2.04% |
U/W Punisher | 2.04% |
White Weenie | 2.04% |
“Look at that, dude!”
“Yup. R/G and Psychatog together at the top. Interestingly enough, the hype before the qualifiers started put R/G Beats, U/G Madness, and Psychatog in the first tier.”
“That’s pretty good guesswork by some folks, man.”
“I’d say homework, but okay. I’m fascinated that U/G and Psychatog flip-flop when going from top eight results to first-place results.”
“I’m tellin’ you, man. You should play to win.”
“Well, thank you for the advice, Jack, but I’ll be happy with any qualifying finish. Since that’s my goal, I’m going to say that the deck for me is probably U/G Madness. In spite of a huge shift in the hype to a pure aggro deck, and the resurgence of a great control deck, U/G Madness continues to post impressive results. The deck is just so resilient. In the event of a shift in the metagame that I don’t see coming, I think it has a better chance of surviving.”
“Whatever, dude. I think you’re wussing out. If I were in your shoes, I would figure out how to pound the crap out of that R/G deck.”
“You know, Jack, I’m sure some people are going to take that approach. I wonder how many of them have looked at the Beasts deck.”
“Beasts? It didn’t look like it was burnin’ the house down.”
“No, it doesn’t look like it is – but keep in mind that the best player ever didn’t endorse it, and it isn’t a familiar deck much loved by control players.”
“So you’re sayin’ it’s still flying under the radar?”
“I think it might be. Consider this: Beasts has finished in the top eight in ten different National Qualifiers. R/G Beats placed higher than Beasts in exactly one of those tournaments.”**
“What does that prove, dude?”
“Nothing conclusively, but it suggests to me that the deck is certainly capable of performing well in a R/G-dominated metagame.”
“That is kinda cool to think about, man. Maybe you’re a smart guy after all.”
“Not really. I just stare at the numbers looking for patterns. There was something else I noticed, but it probably isn’t significant.”
“Dude, I’ve come this far. Spit it out.”
“Well, I started noticing that some decks were grabbing a larger percentage of first place finishes than top eights. I started thinking of them as over achievers. Here, take a look at this from the Champs results.”
The Champs Results: Overachievers
Astroglide | 5.30 |
R/B Control | 4.33 |
G/W Beats | 3.98 |
Mono Black Control | 3.95 |
Sligh | 2.85 |
“I took the percentage of top eight for each deck and subtracted it from the percentage of first-place finishes. Anything with a difference of less than two is considered a false positive.”
“So this means what?”
“Not sure. I think for most of these decks, it means some folks made good metagame calls for their tournaments. Astroglide caught a lot of people off guard, I think. Anyway, I looked at the same thing for the recent national qualifiers.”
The National Qualifers Results: Overachievers
5.54 | |
R/G beats | 4.37 |
U/G Threshold | 2.62 |
Aqualube | 1.75 |
Mono black control | 1.75 |
G/W beats | 1.46 |
B/G Cemetery | 1.46 |
U/G/b Opposition | 1.46 |
U/W Punisher | 1.46 |
“Okay, I know I said anything less than two is a false positive, but I just found it fascinating that G/W Beats and MBC came out ahead again, even by a little bit.”***
“Check out Psychatog, dude.”
“Yeah. Check out R/G Beats.”
“I’d play that deck, man. It’s winning everywhere.”
“Two quick points, Jack: One, everyone who isn’t playing that deck is going to be gunning for that deck. Given that, I think U/G Madness is the best choice for me in those circumstances. Two, I have all the cards for U/G Madness. I’m missing several rares for the optimal R/G Beats.”
“What about Psychatog, dude? It’s the number one overachiever, man. I thought you liked numbers?”
“Yes, Doctor Teeth is winning more than his share outright. I think that’s mostly due to a drop in the deck’s popularity outside of the hardcore control player crowd. Remember, there are a lot of very good players who simply go with the accepted best deck at any given time. There are also very good players who will play the best deck that fits the style they like to play. Psychatog is the control player’s deck in Standard, hands-down.”
“You don’t like control?”
“Well, I don’t think I have enough experience with Psychatog to pull out a decent performance. I simply don’t have enough testing time to make it work. Here’s what I think about Psychatog for this tournament. I think anyone sitting across from me playing that deck has probably shuffled it up a few times before, and he knows what he’s doing. The wannabe control guys who are just going with whatever is ‘best’ aren’t going to bring it. That’s why I think it’s an overachieving deck.”
“Wow. That’s a lot of assumptions based on simple math, dude.”
“I guess. Hey, if I’m wrong, it won’t be the first time. I’ll play islands and forests and like it.”
“So I can’t talk you out of U/G Madness, huh?”
“‘Fraid not, Jack.”
“What if I threaten to tell your wife what day of the week May 3rd falls on this year?”
“Jack, you know my wife would eviscerate you.”
“You got a point there, man. She’d kill you slow, but I wouldn’t get to watch.”
“And you think I’m the sick one.”
* – Thanks to the tournament organizers who kept those results available; it was a big help. Also, I cleaned the data for the National Qualifier results as well. For this article, anything with a percentage of less than two percent has been left off for the sake of brevity. I wasn’t interested in seeing a list of a bunch of rogue decks that pushed through. I wanted to see a snapshot of the top tiers and how they were performing overall, especially how each responded to the Kai Budde metagame shift. The data used for the National Qualifiers was pulled from the StarCityGames.com database on Friday, April 18, 2003. After scrubbing, it contained 343 decks reported. The Champs results came from a variety of sources, but I started with the results from the StarCityGames.com database. After updating and scrubbing, it contained 454 decks reported.
** – Okay, if you care, the only qualifier where R/G Beats finished higher in the top eight than Beasts was Zagreb, Croatia. To give you an idea of where Beasts was being played, there was one other top eight for Beasts in Croatia, three in Poland, two in France, two in Brazil, and one in Belgium.
*** – Again, for anyone who cares I ran the same results against the States results only. G/W Beats had a score of 8.33. Is this a smaller result set or a real difference between the US National metagame and the global metagame? Draw your own conclusions.