Before I get into the “meat” of this week’s article, I want to discuss an idea that I threw out in the forum discussions from last week’s article: a Power Registry. This is somewhat awkward, in that I’m going to discuss a topic that will mostly interest Vintage regulars first, and then follow that up with a longer section that is geared toward Magic players that are outside of Vintage, looking in. I hope that whichever camp you fall in, you’ll stick with me all the way through.
The Power Registry
One of the trickier points in discussing Vintage has always been the question of how much power is still actually in circulation. We know how many legitimate pieces of power were printed, but we have no idea how many of those cards have been lost, destroyed, or thrown away over the years. Similarly, we have no idea how where the power that still exists is being held. How much of it has gone overseas, and how much remains in North America? How much is still around, but has effectively moved out of the tournament circuit by “casual” players* or collectors?
There are problems with this idea of creating a registry, or at least difficulties in making it an effective tool. It is obviously impossible to ever really account for ALL of the power printed, or even all of the power that remains available. Not everyone would take the step of registering their power, and some collectors who are no longer involved in the game and have stored collections away, or casual players that have stopped playing the game or don’t read internet information regarding Magic, may never see or hear anything about it. Furthermore, the fact that there are so many dealers, both on a local and national level, who buy and sell these cards, means that there will forever be a certain percentage of the card pool that is on the market but not in the hands of a specific person, and obviously many (maybe most) dealers would have neither the time nor interest to register their cards.
Still, there is much to gain from this idea. The main point would be to help us get a handle on the approximate distribution of power, both in terms of geography and the division between tournament player / casual player / 5-color player / collector / dealer. In addition to this, I think a Power Registry would help us add a narrative to Vintage that might be a powerful tool in helping to sustain the format. I have often wondered what happened to the set of power I sold back in 1996. Is it still seeing play? If it is, where might it have gone, and what is the path it took to get there? If people took the step of registering their power, players who invest in or win actual power would be owning a registered collectible that would help connect the members of the Vintage community. How much more interesting would it be to not just buy or win a Mox Jet, but to claim ownership over a registered collectible that has its own back-story, its own narrative telling you where it came from and who had played it in the past?
Although I have collected comics and sports cards in the past, my experience with this type of thing is very limited, so I have no idea as to the specifics that such a project might require, nor do I have any idea who might be able and willing to help set up such a project. Regardless, I do think it is an interesting idea that might be worth exploring by someone who does have that knowledge. I would suggest that the following cards would be worthy of being in a registry based on their scarcity, iconic status, and value to Vintage tournament players:
• The “power nine”: Mox Jet, Mox Sapphire, Mox Emerald, Mox Ruby, Mox Pearl, Black Lotus, Time Walk, Timetwister, Ancestral Recall
• Bazaar of Baghdad
• Mishra’s Workshop
• Library of Alexandria
The last one is perhaps debatable, but it does have iconic Vintage status and still carries a high price-tag.
A further point of interest is whether or not this sort of activity is good for the health of Magic in general. I’ve always thought that the fact that there are some truly expensive individual cards in Magic, and have been for over a decade, is a sign of the strength and permanency of the game. When I discuss Magic with people who are unfamiliar with it, one of the ways I can prove that this is an “adult” endeavor is to discuss the high-end cards and the Pro Tour circuit. If Vintage was allowed to slide into complete irrelevance, and the value of the cards I listed above were to significantly decline, I think that would signify a serious problem with the health of Magic and the secondary market in general. A Power Registry might be one step in the right direction for Vintage, for the sustainability of the format, and for cementing the value and collectability of Magic’s high-end cards. Given that, perhaps it might be in the best interest of Wizards of the Coast themselves to create such a registry. Such a move would also signify support from WotC for the format in a way that we haven’t seen in years, if ever. Unfortunately, past history suggests that if this is an idea that proves popular, it would have to be community-generated.
Perception versus Reality in Vintage and Legacy
One of the issues facing Vintage, and even Legacy to some extent, is the issue of the negative perception of Eternal formats: expensive, degenerate, broken. The barrier to entry in Vintage has been discussed to some extent in the past, including recent discussion in the forums of recent columns by me and Stephen Menendian, so I won’t be discussing that here, although I may do so in the future. Instead, I want to focus on the idea that Eternal formats, Vintage in particular, are degenerate and broken. Many people seem to consider Vintage in particular a failed experiment crafted in the days of yore, superseded in every way by the more “balanced” play found in recent sets, sets honed into theoretical balance by play in the “future-future league” of WotC R&D. Although I wasn’t playing Vintage at the time, it seems like Flash in particular was bad PR for the format as a whole. On some level, it makes sense to think that Vintage must be the fastest format, since it allows the “power 9” and Mishra’s Workshop — but how accurate is this claim, and is Vintage today really “faster” than Legacy, or even Extended?
People form their opinions of formats, first and foremost, from personal experience. I find myself going back to this story repeatedly, but it’s illustrative of the point I’m trying to make, so I’m going to tell it again. A few months after I started playing Magic again, in early 2007, I thought it would be a good idea to play in a Legacy Grand Prix Trial for Columbus. I’d purchased the cards for Affinity, so it was easy enough to throw in some Vials, Disciples, and Flings and call it a day. In the tournament, I beat a Psychatog deck and then lost a mirror match, before getting matched up against Iggy Pop. I won the die roll, played a turn one Seat, Ornithopter, and Vial, and passed. My opponent drew a card, and then killed me. In game two, I kept a hand that looked like it had a potential third turn kill — but I only got two turns total before my opponent killed me first. These two games had a tremendous influence on my understanding of Legacy and Vintage. In light of these games, it was very easy for me, reading the subsequent coverage of the Grand Prix, to think that Legacy was a format full of outrageously fast storm decks, and even faster Flash decks (although WotC wisely eliminated that deck from Legacy after the Grand Prix). Given the fact that I hadn’t played Vintage in over a decade, and my knowledge that Vintage contained the Moxen, Sol Ring, Mana Crypt, Mana Vault, and Mishra’s Workshop, it seemed logical that Vintage must be even faster and have an even higher likelihood of players being killed on the first two turns of the game.
In reality, at least today, Vintage doesn’t really work this way at all. For the most part, neither does Legacy. Although decks like ANT, Ichorid and Belcher exist in Legacy, and are in fact capable of winning on the first turn of the game, the prevalence of Force of Will, Daze, Stifle, and Counterbalance does a remarkable job keeping these decks in check. To some extent, especially at smaller or local events, more traditional aggro decks can do well by beating the control decks and ignoring combo altogether. After GP: Chicago, I posted the deck Mykie Noble ran to a 17th place finish, going 12-3 with no byes. This deck is basically an Extended version of the Rock that adds the Natural Order / Progenitus combo. Its most typical turn one plays are “Land, Birds of Paradise” or “Land, Thoughtseize you,” and it often follows this up with the outrageous threat of… Wall of Roots. This deck is the antithesis of Flash: measured, balanced, and more than anything, fair.
Well, as fair as any deck that cheats a 10/10 with “Protection from Everything” into play can be.
What about Vintage? Let’s take a look at a recent 44-person Vintage event from Blue Bell, PA. The meta-game looked like this:
Metagame — Blue Bell — 4/4/09**
Tezzeret – 16
Fish – 5
TPS – 3
Landstill – 3
Painter – 3
Stax – 3
Oath – 2
Workshop – 2
Slaver – 2
Ad Nauseam – 2
Elves – 1
Goblins – 1
Affinity – 1
We can see that aggro decks were under-represented, Ichorid wasn’t represented at all, and combo decks made up a small minority of the field (5/44, including just the storm decks, 7/44 if you include the two Oath decks, or 10/44 if you include the Painter decks, although at this point we’re reaching or exceeding what can accurately be defined as a pure combo deck). There were six rounds with a cut to top 8. The standings after the Swiss looked like this:
1. AJ Grasso – 16 (Landstill)
2. Stephen Nowakowski – 15 (Tezzeret)
3. Ryan Fisher – 13 (Elves)
4. Juan Sanchez – 13 (U/R Painter)
5. Jon Richards – 13 (U/R Shop)
6. Joe Davis – 13 (Tezzeret with Oath SB)
7. Josh Potucek – 13 (Tezzeret w/out Tezzeret, a.k.a. Empty Vault)
8. Matt Elias – 13 (Oath)
After the top 8, the final standings looked like this:
1. Matt Elias – (Oath)
2. Josh Potucek – (Tezzeret w/out Tezzeret, a.k.a. Empty Vault)
3. Joe Davis – (Tezzeret with Oath SB)
4. Jon Richards – (U/R Workshop)
5. Stephen Nowakowski – (Tezzeret)
6. AJ Grass – (Landstill)
7. Ryan Fisher – (Elves)
8. Juan Sanchez – (U/R Painter)
The first anomaly is that all four higher-seeded players lost in the quarterfinals, but let’s look beyond that. I think this top 8 reveals quite a bit about the speed of Vintage today — although the meta-game numbers might not be representative, the general speed of these decks is pretty typical. We see that none of the combo decks that use Tendrils as a win condition made it out of the Swiss rounds. The top 8 is, however, littered with combo decks to some degree, including Oath of Druids, Elves, and Blue/Red Painter. The Tezzeret decks are essentially control decks that choose to run a combo win condition. Josh’s list runs one Empty the Warrens main with two more in the sideboard, and no Tezzeret, while Joe chose to run the transformative sideboard using Oath of Druids. Looking over the deck-lists (available on the Mana Drain), its easy to see why Tezzeret has been so successful — the shell of the deck is powerful and resilient, and opponents can never be sure exactly what they’re going to see at any point in the match (although Vault and Key, and Inkwell, are the default “win condition” of these decks).
Most interestingly for my purpose today, none of these decks are all that interested in trying to win on the first turn of the game. The Elves deck can, if it draws Black Lotus or Mox Emerald AND Elvish Spirit Guide, but is generally designed to grind it out a little bit more using Skullclamp and Glimpse to pull irreversibly ahead. Similarly, the Painter’s Servant deck can in theory hit six mana on turn one for Painter and Grindstone plus activation, but the deck is built as more of a control/combo deck in the style of Imperial Painter from Legacy. Finally, all of the Tezzeret lists have the potential to hit Time Vault and Voltaic Key on turn one and win from there, but this is relatively rare as both are one-ofs. Josh’s list has the potential of doing a TPS impression and hitting Yawgmoth’s Will, Empty the Warrens, and artifact mana and could conceivably Yawg Will into Empty into Time Walk, but again this is going to be very rare. Jon’s Workshop deck is an aggro deck capable of extreme mana disruption (his best turn ones will involve Null Rod, Chalice of the Void, and Gorilla Shaman in hopes of preventing his opponent’s mana development), while AJ’s Landstill deck is the purest control deck in the top 8. A “broken” first turn from AJ’s list would be something like “Mox, Factory, Standstill, go.” Despite being slow as molasses in a format that most people associate with extreme speed and degeneracy, AJ has won 14 of his 18 Swiss rounds in the three Vintage tournaments in Blue Bell this year, proving that there is room for a pure control deck in today’s Vintage environment.
In fact, I actually believe that Vintage and Legacy are running at around the same speed, and it’s possible that Legacy is becoming faster then Vintage (or at least, that it is easier to try to kill someone on turn 1 in Legacy than it is in Vintage). Legacy decks have a long history of running Ancient Tomb, City of Traitors, Chrome Mox, and Mox Diamond for acceleration (leading to the existence of Dragon Stompy, Faerie Stompy, and similar decks which have access to a play-set of Trinisphere); Legacy decks also have access to unrestricted Lion’s Eye Diamond (enabling a turn-one kill Ichorid deck that doesn’t exist in Vintage) and Lotus Petal (helping create significantly more stable Belcher and Ad Nauseam decks in Legacy as compared to Vintage). With Tezzeret making up the majority of the Vintage meta-game, control vs. control mirrors are becoming increasingly common, just as Counterbalance/Top mirrors are making up a constantly increasing portion of larger Legacy events. Anyone who had the experience of playing against TEPS / Desire or Elves in Extended this past season has had experience with decks that approximate or surpass the speed of the average Vintage deck (to say nothing about the All-In Red deck, which was inconsistent yet perfectly capable of a first-turn Trinisphere into a second-turn Deus of Calamity, or vice versa).
While it is true that Vintage contains the best of every piece of acceleration ever printed, it also contains every answer. The existence of Null Rod, Gorilla Shaman, Pithing Needle, Wasteland plus Crucible of Worlds, Magus of the Moon, Chalice of the Void, and so on not only allow “slower” decks to be played in Vintage, but they slow down the format as a whole. Today’s TPS decks are resilient by necessity, but compared to the various Long builds and Flash, they are glacially slow, and in fact are generally slower than ANT in Legacy. To be clear, Vintage demands that every deck either provide an immediate threat (such as a turn-one Oath of Druids), run immediate disruption (such as a turn-one Magus of the Moon, Chalice of the Void, or Thoughtseize), or have immediate answers (such as Force of Will), or have the risk of falling so far behind from the first turn that the game is essentially over. It isn’t so much that the format is truly slow, as it clearly is not – it requires immediate interaction – but that games don’t tend to end on the first turn, and the higher-tier decks are designed to interact at this speed. In fact, this is one of the top “draws” of Vintage: much less waiting time to get to the action. While not directly related, I have also come to admire the fact that Vintage and Legacy are both considerably better formats in which to mulligan than Standard or Extended. Because some of the cards have so much power, and because card draw, tutors, and card filtering is so much more available in Vintage, it is far easier to recover from a mulligan to five, at least in my experience with Oath in Vintage and Painter in Legacy.
Finally, one of the common things that I see when playing Vintage is how easily a Vintage deck, for all its power, can be reduced to a steaming pile of manure with a little bit of pressure on its ability to execute. Some hands that seem outrageously broken in the abstract become unplayable in the blink of an eye. For all of its power compared to a land, each Mox in an opening hand beyond the first becomes a great liability when on the draw — if the opponent has a Null Rod, Chalice on 0, or Gorilla Shaman, a hand that seems explosive can be rendered unplayable instead. Some players also have a tendency to keep hands that are otherwise loose (low on threats or disruption, mana issues, no Force of Will) simply because they contain Ancestral Recall. If that card is countered, or even worse “stolen” by Misdirection or Commandeer, these types of hands will fold immediately. Just as in other formats, the more a deck is tuned for a certain expected meta-game, the more spectacularly it will fail when it hits a bad match-up. A terrific hand from Remora control can get blown out by a simple start like “Kird Ape, pass.”
Excluding intentional draws, I’ve played thirty rounds (so somewhere around 75 games) with Oath over the past four months, and during that time I’ve had exactly two opening hands that I consider completely broken. Here was the first, which occurred during game one, on the play, in round 4 of the Chicago Vintage side event:
Black Lotus, Mox Sapphire, Ancestral Recall, Time Walk, Forbidden Orchard, Oath of Druids, Thoughtseize
And, the second, which was during the Blue Bell tournament on 4/4, in the semifinals;
Black Lotus, Mox Pearl, Oath of Druids, Forbidden Orchard, Tinker, Thoughtseize, Chalice of the Void
The second hand is particularly obnoxious, because on the play, there are very few decks that can really stop it. Not only does it have a first turn Oath with Orchard, but the back-up plan includes playing Tinker for an Inkwell Leviathan, backed up by a Chalice on zero for mana disruption and a turn-two Thoughtseize. However, as great as those hands were, neither of them actually “won” the game on the first turn. By comparison, within my first ten games play-testing with Desire last Extended season, I’d amassed one turn-one kill, one turn-two kill, and two turn-three kills.
There is plenty more to say on this topic but I’m approaching my weekly limit, so hopefully this will suffice for now. Obviously I am of the opinion that Vintage and Legacy, particularly Vintage, have overstated reputations for speed in general and specifically for first-turn kills. The formats as they stand now are at a good point on the crossroads between fair and unfair, with decks in both categories experiencing success provided they are built and piloted correctly.
Next week, with the initial hype slowing down a bit, I’ll take a look at Alara Reborn and see what standouts we can find for the various formats of Magic.
* I know it seems counter-intuitive to speak of casual players using the power 9, but this does actually occur.
** Thanks to Mike for posting these results in the Mana Drain tournament results forum.
Matt Elias
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