The European GenCon in Barcelona, Spain dominates these results, but I highly recommend checking out their builds. Even New Englanders might find something useful.
2004-07-01 GenCon Barcelona (55 players)
1. Zombie Infestation
2. Trinistax – 2 Crucible
3. Gro-A-Tog
4. Affinity
5. MUD – 2 Crucible
6. 4C Control
7. MUD – 2 Crucible
8. Hulk Smash
2004-07-02 GenCon Barcelona (60 players)
1. U/B Masknought
2. R/U/G Madness
3. Hulk Smash
4. MUD – 3 Crucible
5. U/B TPS
6. Trinistax – 3 Crucible
7. Workshop Slavery
8. MUD – 3 Crucible
2004-07-03 Barcelona (264 players)
1. Hulk Smash
2. Affinity
3. R/U/G Madness
4. Goblin Sligh
5. MUD – 3 Crucible
6. ?
7. ?
8. TPS
2004-07-11 Turin (65 players)
1. Welder MUD
2. Hulk Smash
3. R/U/G Madness
4. U/B TPS
5. U/B TPS
6. Dragon
7. Hulk Smash
8. Dragon
2004-07-11 Dulmen (112 players)
1. R/G Madness
2. Belcher
3. 4C Control – 1 Crucible SB
4. U/R Fish
5. 4C Control – 1 Crucible MD, 1 SB
6. Trinistax – 2 Crucible
7. Welder MUD – 2 Crucible
8. Zombie Infestation
2004-07-17 SCG Richmond (167 players)
1. 4C Control
2. Stacker (The Man Show) – 3 Crucible
3. U/R Fish – 1 Crucible SB
4. U/R Fish
5. U/R Landstill
6. Gro-A-Tog
7. U/R Fish
8. Control Slaver
2004-07-18 Danish Nationals (57 players)
1. Trinistax – 1 Crucible
2. U/R Landstill
3. Trinistax
4. 4C Control – 2 Crucible
5. 4C Control
6. Affinity
7. 4C Control
8. Dragon
2004-07-18 Massa (155 players)
1. Kiodo CounterBurn – 2 Crucible
2. MUD – 3 Crucible
3. Workshop Slavery
4. Workshop Slavery
5. U/R Fish
6. U/B TPS
7. Stacker
8. TPS
2004-07-25 Piacenza (89 players)
1. Hulk Smash
2. TPS
3. wMUD
4. Dragon
5. MUD
6. Kiodo CounterBurn – 3 Crucible
7. TPS
8. R/U/G Madness
Nine tournaments totaled (55,57,60,65,89,112,155,167,264 = 113.8 average players)
10 wMUD / MUD* (1,2,3,4,5,5,5,7,7,8)
8 TPS (2,4,5,5,6,7,8,8)
7 4C Control (1,3,4,5,5,6,7)
6 Hulk Smash (1,1,2,3,7,8)
5 Madness (1,2,3,3,8)
5 Trinistax (1,2,3,6,6)
5 Fish (3,4,4,5,7)
4 Dragon (4,6,8,8)
3 Affinity (2,4,6)
3 Workshop Slavery (3,4,7)
2 Kiodo CounterBurn (1,6)
2 Landstill (2,5)
2 Zombie Infestation (1,8)
2 Stacker (2,7)
2 Gro-A-Tog (3,6)
1 Masknought (1)**
1 Belcher (2)
1 Goblin Sligh (4)
1 Control Slaver (8)
2 Unknown (6,7)
* 3 wMUD, 7 MUD
** 1 U/B
(1) Tight In That Good Way
Metagame Occurrence Percentages
Mean% – Feb., Mar., Apr., May., Jun., Jul.
12.2% – 10.0, _9.7, _9.7, 14.6, 19.6, _9.7 4C Control
10.5% – 12.5, 12.5, _8.5, 10.4, 10.7, _8.3 Hulk Smash
_7.7% – _5.0, _4.2, _8.5, _8.3, _8.9, 11.1 Storm Combo
_6.0% – _5.0, _5.6, _6.9, _4.2, _8.9, _5.6 Dragon
_5.5% – _7.5, _2.8, _4.2, _6.3, _5.4, _6.9 Madness
_4.5% – _7.5, _2.8, _4.2, _2.1, _3.6, _6.9 Stax
_4.3% – _5.0, _5.6, _1.4, _6.3, _7.2, _0.0 FCG / Gobvantage
_4.1% – 12.5, _5.6, _4.2, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0 Rector
_3.8% – _2.5, _1.4, _2.8, _2.1, _0.0, 13.9 MUD / wMUD
_3.6% – _0.0, _5.6, _2.8, _6.3, _0.0, _6.9 Fish
_3.6% – _5.0, _2.8, _1.4, _2.1, _7.2, _2.8 Stacker
_3.5% – _5.0, _0.0, _1.4, _6.3, _5.4, _2.8 GAT
_3.2% – _2.5, _1.4, _5.6, _2.1, _3.6, _4.2 Workshop Slavery
_3.2% – _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _6.3, _1.8, _1.4 Control Slavery
_3.2% – _5.0, _2.8, _5.6, _4.2, _1.8, _0.0 TnT
_2.8% – _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _4.2, _0.0, _2.8 Landstill
_2.3% – _0.0, _0.0, _4.2, _0.0, _5.4, _4.2 Affinity
_2.2% – _0.0, _2.8, _1.4, _2.1, _5.4, _1.4 Belcher
_1.9% – _2.5, _2.8, _4.2, _0.0, _1.8, _0.0 Vengeur Masque
_1.2% – _0.0, _2.8, _0.0, _4.2, _0.0, _0.0 R/G Beatz
_1.1% – _2.5, _1.4, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0, _1.4 Goblin Sligh
_0.9% – _2.5, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 SuperGro
_0.9% – _2.5, _2.8, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 MadDragon
_0.7% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.1, _1.8, _0.0 7/10 Split
_0.7% – _0.0, _2.8, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 Sligh
_0.7% – _0.0, _0.0, _4.2, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 Modular
_0.6% – _0.0, _1.4, _0.0, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0 Oshawa Stompy
_0.6% – _0.0, _0.0, _1.4, _2.1, _0.0, _0.0 Monoblue
_0.5% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8 Kiodo CounterBurn
_0.5% – _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0, _2.8 Zombie Infestation
_0.5% – _0.0, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0, _1.8, _0.0 EBA
_0.5% – _0.0, _1.4, _1.4, _0.0, _0.0, _0.0 U/rPhid
MUD was the real surprise of the month. North America has never taken to the archetype, but Crucible and the pressures of the European metagame to deal with combo and Psychatog have brought it into the limelight formerly reserved for Stax. Removing all colors (most of the MUD builds were monobrown) protects from the Sundering Titans that have been popping up in Stax decks, and makes it much easier to get around the inconsistency problem Workshop decks always have to deal with. Metalworker is a card that’s difficult to take advantage of in less-than-monobrown decks, and has long been touted as the source of broken second turns.
Data Period – # unique archetypes (per T8) [number of archetypes in each Top 8] = [average]
2003-09&10 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 6,8,5,7,8 = 6.8
—–Mirrodin legal
2003-11&12 – 20 archetypes (4.0 / T8) 4,7,5,6,8 = 6.0
—–Restriction: Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, Lion’s Eye Diamond
2004-Jan – 26 archetypes (4.4 / T8) 6,8,7,7,7 = 7.0
2004-Feb – 19 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,7,7,7,7 = 6.8
—–Darksteel legal
2004-Mar – 34 archetypes (3.8 / T8) 6,8,8,7,7,6,7,6,7 = 6.9
2004-Apr – 28 archetypes (3.1 / T8) 7,8,7,7,8,8,5,6,7 = 7.0
2004-May – 21 archetypes (3.5 / T8) 7,6,6,5,7,7 = 6.3
2004-Jun – 18 archetypes (2.6 / T8) 6,5,7,6,8,6,5 = 6.1
—–Fifth Dawn legal
2004-Jul – 19 archetypes (2.1 / T8) 7,7,6,5,7,6,5,6,6 = 6.1
354 cardnames in Q4 2003 (10 tournaments)
262 cardnames in January (5)
267 cardnames in February (5)
372 cardnames in March (9)
335 cardnames in April (9)
271 cardnames in May (6)
276 cardnames in June (7)
272 cardnames in July (9)
The archetype counts provide a hint that while Top 8s are still wildly diverse by other formats’ standards, the overall picture is condensing to less than twenty archetypes on a permanent basis. The cardnames (for once directly comparable because July has the same number of tournaments analyzed as March and April) show the refinement of deck design rather more dramatically. July had fewer cardnames in more tournaments than June, and a fifth less cardnames in the same number of tournaments as April. Since fewer cardnames means less random choices, we can see that even the more roguish decks of the summer are using the same tools as the established decks, just in different mixes.
(2) Crucible, Crucible, Crucible
Alright, so I was wrong. Focusing on how bad the Crucible-Fastbond–Zuran Orb combo was, I was blinded to the power of just plain recursive Wasteland. Fortunately, I wasn’t alone in my skepticism, joined by the illustrious [author name="JP Meyer"]JP Meyer[/author], who now thinks Crucible is on its way to The List. Crucible has found its way into Fish, 4C Control, and all manner of Workshop decks, as well as a Turboland variant that won in Minnesota with the infinite combo everyone said was horrible. TMDers are still skeptical about the combo, but virtually every deck is now being put forward with Crucibles or a counter-Crucible plan (typically more CoWs).
JP just recently suggested a mono-Green aggro deck featuring Crucible, simply because it could. The next day, Steven Petersen (waSP) argued that two Crucibles wasn’t enough in an R/G Beatdown list we discussed. When I pointed out that most Crucible use in this then-unpublished report was as two-ofs (see above), Matthieu Durand (Toad) asserted that they hadn’t finished evolving – three maindeck is much better, with probably the fourth in the sideboard. Richard Mattiuzu (Shockwave) thinks they belong in Landstill, too.
In short, walking into GenCon, everyone has Crucible on the brain. This article was submitted a couple of days before the convention, so by the time you read it there’s likely a lot more information available. Suffice it to say, there will be a lot of surprised people if the Top 8 doesn’t feature a dozen or so Crucible of Worlds.
(3) More Error
Not-so-telekinetic TK and I placed hard numeric predictions on Fifth Dawn back when the set reviews were coming out, with me betting on 2.5% and him guessing more along the lines of 5% of the distinct cards in the set would be played. I thought the fix was in, what with all the terrible cards they had printed – and for a while things were looking my way. Then the smartass Europeans found ways to make Staff of Domination, Synod Centurion, and Silent Arbiter playable, not to mention Goblin Cannon. [I confess that not a single damned one of those were in my thoughts when I made my prediction. Hell, Trinket.dec hasn’t even made a full appearance yet. In spite of that, I must take this moment to declare I am officially awesome sauce. – Knut, tickled] Here’s the full slate of appearances:
41 Crucible of Worlds
18 Staff of Domination
4 Night’s Whisper
3 Synod Centurion
2 Goblin Cannon
2 Tel-Jilad Justice
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Razormane Masticore
1 Silent Arbiter
My 2.5% figure would allow 4-5 cardnames, while Ted’s was nearer to 8-9 cardnames. Nine makes him the fair-and-square winner, and puts Fifth Dawn at about the same use level as Urza’s Destiny. Not quite Legacy or Mirrodin, but surely not bad company.
(4) Pip’s Watch List
In terms of appearances per Top 8:
Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr., May., Jun., Jul.
_2.8, _3.4, _3.1, _3.3, _4.0, _4.0, _3.1 – 28 Yawgmoth’s Will
_7.8, _6.4, _4.7, _8.9, _4.2, _6.0, _9.8 – 88 Mishra’s Workshop
10.4, _8.5, 10.2, _9.3, 13.8, 10.3, _8.0 – 72 Mana Drain
_5.2, _7.4, _6.3, _6.3, _8.5, _8.9, _6.1 – 55 Cunning Wish
_1.6, _5.6, _4.0, _4.7, _4.0, _4.6, _4.8 – 43 Dark Ritual
___, ____, ____, ___, ____, _0.4, _4.6 – 41 Crucible of Worlds
_1.6, _0.0, _3.0, _1.3, _1.8, _1.9, _0.4 – 4 Elvish Spirit Guide
Workshops hit a record high once again, but it’s hard to say whether it’s the Workshop or the Crucible that’s driving the appearances. I speculate that Workshops were fair for the time period between Trinisphere’s publication and Crucible, so it’s more likely Crucible. Pure occurrence rates hardly render it a restriction target just yet. After all, Chalice was the last”they’ve gotta restrict that OMG” artifact, and its adoption looked like this:
2003, Jan., Feb., Mar., Apr., May., Jun.
_4.8, _8.6, _6.6, _6.0, _8.0, _7.5, _6.7 Chalice of the Void
The key difference is that Chalice stops spells, but Crucible stops mana, which is even more fundamental, and much less recoverable. I know JP’s planning an article, so I’ll end my speculation.
(5) Card Counts From Jeek
(Missing Decklists: Two unknown archetypes.)
127 Polluted Delta
56 Flooded Strand
26 Wooded Foothills
10 Bloodstained Mire
1 Windswept Heath
116 Volcanic Island
109 Underground Sea
51 Tropical Island
28 Tundra
12 Taiga
9 Bayou
1 Badlands
69 Island
40 Mountain
29 Swamp
7 Forest
1 Plains
65 Mox Sapphire
63 Black Lotus
59 Mox Ruby
58 Sol Ring
55 Ancestral Recall
53 Mox Jet
51 Time Walk
49 Mox Emerald
45 Strip Mine
44 Mox Pearl
37 Mana Crypt
34 Demonic Tutor
34 Tolarian Academy
30 Mana Vault
28 Library of Alexandria
28 Yawgmoth’s Will
26 Mystical Tutor
25 Memory Jar
24 Vampiric Tutor
23 Fact or Fiction
20 Timetwister
19 Tinker
15 Mind Twist
14 Lotus Petal
14 Wheel of Fortune
12 Windfall
10 Necropotence
8 Yawgmoth’s Bargain
7 Balance
7 Mind’s Desire
6 Crop Rotation
5 Grim Monolith
5 Time Spiral
4 Gush
3 Demonic Consultation
3 Entomb
3 Regrowth
2 Frantic Search
2 Stroke of Genius
1 Burning Wish
1 Channel
1 Chrome Mox
1 Lion’s Eye Diamond
180 Force of Will
157 Wasteland
124 Brainstorm
104 Red Elemental Blast
91 Rack and Ruin
91 Tormod’s Crypt
88 Mishra’s Workshop
79 Chalice of the Void
76 Trinisphere
72 Mana Drain
66 Duress
63 Smokestack
62 Goblin Welder
60 Blue Elemental Blast
56 Fire / Ice
55 Cunning Wish
55 Tangle Wire
49 Stifle
44 Bazaar of Baghdad
44 Mishra’s Factory
43 Dark Ritual
43 Metalworker
43 Null Rod
42 Squee, Goblin Nabob
42 Triskelion
41 Crucible of Worlds
38 Misdirection
35 Gorilla Shaman
34 Thirst for Knowledge
32 Accumulated Knowledge
29 Ancient Tomb
29 Intuition
28 Skeletal Scrying
27 Naturalize
27 Sphere of Resistance
27 Standstill
25 Deep Analysis
25 Swords to Plowshares
24 Circular Logic
24 City of Brass
23 Pernicious Deed
23 Rebuild
23 Shivan Reef
22 Grim Lavamancer
21 Arcbound Crusher
21 Blood Moon
21 Juggernaut
20 Basking Rootwalla
20 Cloud of Faeries
20 Curiosity
20 Karn, Silver Golem
20 Rishadan Port
20 Spiketail Hatchling
20 Wild Mongrel
19 Energy Flux
19 Psychatog
19 Sundering Titan
18 Artifact Mutation
18 Pyrostatic Pillar
18 Staff of Domination
17 Damping Matrix
17 Hurkyl’s Recall
17 Tendrils of Agony
17 Xantid Swarm
16 Coffin Purge
16 Exalted Angel
15 Chain of Vapor
15 City of Traitors
15 Faerie Conclave
14 Lightning Bolt
14 Maze of Ith
14 Pyroblast
14 Worldgorger Dragon
13 Daze
13 Disenchant
13 Viashino Heretic
12 Animate Dead
12 Arcbound Ravager
12 Careful Study
12 Frogmite
12 Necromancy
12 Roar of the Wurm
12 Skullclamp
11 Arcbound Worker
11 Echoing Truth
11 Flametongue Kavu
11 Hydroblast
11 Impulse
11 Mindslaver
11 Myr Enforcer
10 Darksteel Colossus
10 Decree of Justice
10 Masticore
10 Platinum Angel
9 Ground Seal
9 Seat of the Synod
8 Berserk
8 Defense Grid
8 Disciple of the Vault
8 Gemstone Mine
8 Genesis Chamber
8 Nevinyrral’s Disk
8 Powder Keg
8 Quirion Dryad
8 Serendib Efreet
8 Thoughtcast
8 Voidmage Prodigy
8 Zombie Infestation – WTF of the Month
7 Brain Freeze
7 Dance of the Dead
7 Ebony Charm
7 Oxidize
7 Rushing River
6 Anger
6 Gilded Lotus
6 Petrified Field
6 Tsabo’s Web
6 Verdant Force
6 Winter Orb
5 Ambassador Laquatus
5 Counterspell
5 Duplicant
5 Firestorm
5 Glimmervoid
5 Great Furnace
5 Pyrite Spellbomb
5 Sword of Fire and Ice
5 Terminate
5 Wonder
4 Arrogant Wurm
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Chain Lightning
4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Compulsion
4 Dust Bowl
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Fiery Temper
4 Goblin Cadets
4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Goblin Grenade
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Piledriver
4 Goblin Vandal
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Illusionary Mask
4 Incinerate
4 Jester’s Cap
4 Kill Switch
4 Land Grant
4 Merchant Scroll
4 Night’s Whisper
4 Oath of Druids
4 Phyrexian Dreadnought
4 Phyrexian Negator
4 Planar Void
4 Price of Progress
4 Seal of Cleansing
4 Siege-Gang Commander
4 Tinder Wall
4 Vault of Whispers
3 Annul
3 Arcane Laboratory
3 Ashen Ghoul
3 Back to Basics
3 Chains of Mephistopheles
3 City of Solitude
3 Dwarven Miner
3 Keldon Vandals
3 Memnarch
3 Pentavus
3 Serum Powder
3 Smother
3 Solemn Simulacrum
3 Su-Chi
3 Synod Centurion
2 Buried Alive
2 Earthquake
2 Gaea’s Blessing
2 Goblin Cannon
2 Isochron Scepter
2 Living Wish
2 Mind’s Eye
2 Nether Void
2 Panoptic Mirror
2 Phyrexian Furnace
2 Pyroclasm
2 Pyrokinesis
2 Shattering Pulse
2 Sickening Dreams
2 Tainted Pact
2 Tel-Jilad Justice
1 Bone Shredder
1 Coretapper
1 Deconstruct
1 Dust to Dust
1 Elvish Lyrist
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Gaea’s Cradle
1 Ghastly Demise
1 Gilded Drake
1 Hull Breach
1 Lim-Dul’s Vault
1 Magma Mine
1 Meditate
1 Orim’s Thunder
1 Razormane Masticore
1 Scavenger Folk
1 Scrivener
1 Silent Arbiter
1 Tranquil Domain
1 Uktabi Orangutan
1 Vindicate
Philip Stanton
a.k.a. Dr. Sylvan, Moderator on TheManaDrain.com
prstanto at uiuc.edu