Hello everyone, and welcome to the Financial Value of M14! In this article, I’m going to talk about the value of the cards in M14 – which will go up, which will go down, and which will remain stable.
In the past, I’ve discussed sets in terms of current, short-term and long-term value. For this set release, I’m going to have two breakdowns! The first is an excel spreadsheet that lists the following (right click, Save Link as…):
1) Card Name
2) Rarity
3) Current Price
4) My Prediction on the Price when Theros is released (9/27)
5) Do I think this is a good pick to have long-term value (A year from release)?
So if you’re coming just for numbers and price trends, you can just skip to the spreadsheet (right click, Save Link as…) and get my thoughts about this set release! This will also free me up to talk more in-depth about the individual cards in the set without having to devote a huge amount of article space to prices/numbers within the body of the article.
Slivers
As a whole, I believe Slivers are the undervalued cards in this set. There has been a lot of negative feelings about changing the Sliver mechanic in this set from “All Slivers” to “All Your Slivers” (one of the few times that changing an ability to an all-upside has gotten a majority negative feedback, I may add!), but this doesn’t change two facts:
1) These are still Slivers, and can be played with older Slivers just fine, and
2) The power level on these Slivers are a step above the last time we saw Slivers.
In particular, Bonescythe Sliver, Galerider Sliver, and Thorncaster Sliver stand out in my eyes, as rare Slivers that have room to gain value. In the Common/Uncommon slot, I’m keeping a close eye on Manaweft Sliver, Predatory Sliver and Blur Sliver. Gemhide Sliver (a common from Time Spiral) is sold out at $1, and Manaweft Sliver is an upgraded Gemhide Sliver at a higher (Uncommon) rarity – I’d look for Manaweft Sliver to hit the $2-$3 mark by the time M15 comes out.
Reprints
There are four types of reprints, each with their own pricing trends:
Group 1 – Cards that are returning from M13 (or other Standard-Legal sets) that are not being reintroduced to Standard.
This includes the three returning planeswalkers, Clone, and Trading Post. Ajani, Liliana and Jace are all priced lower than their M13 printings, and I expect that over time their price will remain steady or creep back up to pre-M14 price levels as supply of Mythic dry up.
Group 2 – Cards that have a price history based on casual play.
These are the cards that have the biggest initial drop in price, but also have the greatest chance to recover price in the long term. An example from last year is Akroma’s Memorial.
M13 Akroma’s Memorial: Start at $10 (Against the $15 price tag for the Future Sight version in July of 2012). It dropped to $4 by Return to Ravnica’s release, then slowly climbed back to $8 at present day.
Cards included in this category in M14 are Forge[/author]“]Darksteel [author name="Forge"]Forge[/author], Door of Destinies, and Sanguine Bond.
Group 3 – Cards that have a price history based on Standard tournament play.
These are cards that tend to spike while they are in Standard and then drop precipitously. M14 cards in this category include Chandra’s Phoenix and Ratchet Bomb.
Group 4 – Reprints of Cards that have value outside of Standard
In this case, Mutavault and Scavenging Ooze. Both will only climb in value over time, as the demand for Mutavault is already there because of Modern and the demand for Scavenging Ooze will actually go up because it is also Modern-legal for the first time.
Individual Mythics
Archangel of Thune – There’s a progression of mythic Angels in the Core Set. This includes Baneslayer Angel (M10 and M11), Angelic Destiny (M12) and Sublime Archangel (M13). All of these have hit a minimum of $20 while Standard-legal – and while they have all had ups and downs, there’s no reason to think Archangel of Thune will take a huge plummet. It is more playable than Angelic Destiny and Sublime Archangel, and slots into Modern as part of an infinite life/creature size chain with Spike Feeder and Birthing Pod. Plus, casual players love this type of card (see: Ajani’s Pridemate)
Chandra, Pyromaster – There are two new planeswalkers in M14, and I’m betting on Garruk. With that said, this Chandra is probably the best of the (now four!) Chandras yet, and at four mana I’m not writing her off as another “bulk” planeswalker. I’d defer to what Patrick Sullivan has to say about this new Chandra, but have the caveat that I believe at least short term this is a planeswalker that will only trend downwards in value.
Garruk, Caller of Beasts – While six mana is a lot for a planeswalker, Garruk’s two non-ultimate abilities are both game-winners. On turn six, the +1 ability will likely net you 2-3 cards a turn (assuming you build your deck with creatures). The -3 ability is the Nail part of Tooth and Nail (I says so!), and there are plenty of great targets worth cheating out on turn six in Standard (Craterhoof Behemoth/Worldspine Wurm). Probably the best six-mana Planeswalker yet, and I see Garruk holding more of his initial value than Chandra.
Kalonian Hydra – The marquee Mythic of this set. Kalonian Hydra will appeal to casual and competitive players alike. It will be a Standard tournament staple, should be the highest demand card in this set (due to being Mythic, and having appeal to all demographics of players), and will be priced accordingly. I’m predicting this peaks at $40, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it hits $50 like Baneslayer Angel did back during M10.
Primeval Bounty – Great for Commander decks, but right now it’s being overhyped/overvalued. Six mana is a lot to ask out of a card that probably won’t have any effect until the turn after you cast it (compare to Garruk, which immediately draws cards/puts creatures into play). It’ll still be very popular for EDH, but I’d put stock into foil versions of this card, as I expect the non-foil versions to drop hard after release.
Rise of the Dark Realms – Another card that will have much Commander appeal, but not much appeal outside of Commander. Costs too much (mana) to casually be thrown into any old deck, which will restrict its value.
Scourge of Valkas – Currently slightly undervalued. Dragons are still an extremely popular tribe, and Scourge itself pings for a point of damage when it comes into play. If Dragons end up being a thing in Theros, Scourge of Valkas could double in price to $10. I’m not making that call until we see which tribes are being supported in Theros, though (hint: I think it’s a lock at this point that Giants are one of those tribes).
Shadowborn Demon – The demand on Shadowborn Apostle has shocked me! It is the best-selling preorder common we’ve had since I’ve been with the company, excluding the Zendikar full-art basic lands. I don’t think Shadowborn Demon is particularly great for constructed – not hopeless, but it’s going to be hard to reliably have six creatures in your graveyard. Shadowborn Demon will be popular with casual players, so while I think it will drop in value, I don’t think it’ll fall off a cliff.
Devout Invocation, Ring of Three Wishes, Windreader Sphinx – Bulk Mythic Rares
Individual Rares
Anything $1 or less I consider to be a bulk rare. I won’t be talking about any of them, unless I think their value stands a good chance to get above $1 at some point in the next year.
Dark Prophecy – Every attempt at Phyrexian Arena has fallen short of tournament playability as of late, from Dark Tutelage to Underworld Connections and everything in between. Will Dark Prophecy break this streak? My guess is no – there’s a card in this set that costs the same converted mana cost and also rewards you on creatures dying (Xathrid Necromancer), and I believe the Necromancer is the card black wants to reward creatures dying, not this one.
Elite Arcanist – Right now at $1, but cards of this type (essentially Imprint) have been very popular with casual players. I think the body is too fragile for tournament play, but I think kitchen table players will drive the value of Elite Arcanist up over time, so that it will be a $2 card by this time next year.
Fiendslayer Paladin – Overrated. Paladin en-Vec was better (outright protection), and it didn’t really make much of an impact the last time it was in Standard, when creatures were much, much smaller in general. The entire cycle of creatures that hose the enemy colors are seeing a lot of demand right now, but I think the majority of them are going to be the cards in this set that have the greatest drop-off in value. Fiendslayer Paladin is no exception.
Goblin Diplomats – To me, this is a bulk rare. I don’t think if you’re the red player you want to spend your second turn playing a 2/1 that you’ll have to tap (instead of attacking with) to get a marginal effect from. It might have more use in Modern and Legacy where it can combine with Goblin Chieftain or Goblin Warchief, but I think this’ll be one of those cards that doesn’t make the grade in practice.
Haunted Plate Mail – Currently underrated. Compares well with Tatsumasa, the Dragon’s Fang, and may be good enough to be a one-of in decks that want equipment.
Imposing Sovereign – On the plus side, it’s a human. On the minus side, who knows where Humans are going to be as a tribe once Innistrad block rotates once Theros arrives? It’ll be good for the next three months, but I would hedge all future bets on this card before Theros comes out. Blind Obedience is the correct choice to run if you’re the control player and not the beatdown.
Lifebane Zombie – The Japanese have been preordering the heck out of this card. This is usually a sign that a card is undervalued and will be successful in Standard. It slots great in the Zombie deck, and comes down early enough to matter for ganking relevant creatures out of your opponent’s hand. I see this following a price trajectory of Gravecrawler / Geralf’s Messenger – maxing out close to $10, and halving in price as rotation nears.
Liliana’s Reaver – I’d put Liliana’s Reaver as a higher-dollar card than $2, except that it’s an Intro Pack foil rare and the market will be flooded with them. The same thing happened to the five legendary creatures that were the headliners of the M13 Intro packs.
Mindsparker – Another one of the double-hosing creatures that is relevant to Standard. The cost-to-power ratio is on-target for a red creature, and you get an extra two points of damage when your opponent has a Wrath effect. I see this being the second of the two hoser guys that ends up holding value in the short term.
Ogre Battledriver – My pick for the most undervalued card in the set. Right now the price on Ogre Battledriver is being suppressed to some degree by the promo version available via Duels of the Planeswalker Redemption. Initial testing from around the net shows that Ogre Battledriver is fantastic on the curve, and may be the first “true” successor to Fires of Yavimaya since 2002. I expect this to shoot up in value, especially after Innistrad Block (Hellrider, Falkenrath Aristocrat) rotate.
Path of Bravery – Great as a casual card, but supply initially will drive down prices until the set is out of circulation. Afterwards, should hit the $3 mark due to casual demand, both for the Crusade ability and for the lifegain ability.
Pyromancer’s Gauntlet – A little narrow, since for a burn deck it’s too far up the curve, and Chandra isn’t THAT good to use at this point. Probably will drop to bulk range quickly and stay there.
Savage Summoning – My pick for the most over-hyped card in this set. The history of these cards (Quicken, Insist, Overmaster) is littered with cards that were hyped large, and ended up deflating to bulk levels. It took Overmaster. Yes, Overmaster is a $4 card right now – but price history on Overmaster looks like this:
October 2002 – February 2003: $2
March 2003 – August 2003: $1.50
September 2003 – September 2008 (5 years!) – $1
October 2008 – July 2012 (nearly 4 years!) – $0.50 – $0.75
August 2012 – Finally finds a deck, jumps to the $3-$4 range.
And the main reason Overmaster even hit that level is because it’s a cantrip in addition to its actual spell ability. Savage Summoning isn’t a cantrip. I expect it to drop to (or close to) bulk levels fairly quickly after release. Get rid of them now.
Seraph of the Sword – A remake of Dawn Elemental – easier to cast, in a better tribe, but vulnerable to non-combat damage. It should be popular with casual players, and may have a spot in Standard if large green creatures end up becoming a problem.
Strionic Resonator – This reminds me of Sundial of the Infinite from M12 – a lot of hype going in, but it ended up coming to nothing in the end. I think the Resonator will be popular in Commander, but not popular enough to hold the demand it currently has.
Tidebinder Mage – The majority of hype around this card is for Legacy Merfolk decks. The problem is that Legacy Merfolk has been a tier-two deck for a while now, and I’m not sure this is the card to suddenly push that deck over the top (since Mind Harness and Submerge already exist as cheaper hosers if you want to combat red and/or green creature decks). In Standard, it seems too easy to kill, and there isn’t enough Merfolk/blue weenie support to make this slot into a deck/curve. This looks interesting on paper, but I think in practice it’ll be a strictly-sideboard card (Lifebane Zombie and Mindsparker, to me, are the two creatures that are above the curve for their colors even before you add in their hosing abilities).
Witchstalker – I compare this to Great Sable Stag. Great Sable Stag was a better card (it would always hit the board, and it had protection). When in Standard, Great Sable Stag hit a peak of $15 (but mainly stayed at the $8-$10 level). It was also custom-built to beat the dominant deck at the time (Faeries). It’s now a $1 card. Witchstalker is average size for a three-drop green creature. It doesn’t have evasion, and the two “hoser” abilities are easily worked around. Overrated, and I see this card dropping to half its current value quickly.
Xathrid Necromancer – I remember the days when Rotlung Reanimator was a thing. The current Human deck is more powerful (and popular) than Zombies/Clerics were during Onslaught block. This effect is very, very powerful – it plays both offensively (board sweepers on your side leave you with an army of creatures against their nothing; trading creatures leaves you ahead) and defensively (their board sweepers leave you with an army of 2/2 creatures against their empty board). I think this is going to be the card that all Human decks want to slot in for the next three months, and it’s good enough to make the transition to Modern as part of a Human deck as well.
Memorial Uncommons of Value Section
Last year, Augur of Bolas, Flinthoof Boar and Rancor all hit the $2-$3 mark in Standard. Which Uncommons will be the ones to pull a premium from M14?
Banisher Priest – Replaces Fiend Hunter, and will be in shorter supply than Fiend Hunter as M14 will be a lot less widely opened than Innistrad. ($1.50-$2)
Encroaching Wastes – Should see Modern play ($1.50-$2)
Manaweft Sliver – Key for casual and competitive Sliver decks ($2.50-$3)
Voracious Wurm – My sleeper Uncommon for the set. Compare to Kavu Predator, which kind of is like Voracious Wurm, but harder to control the effect (and is a $1.50 Uncommon) ($1-$1.50)
Young Pyromancer – This is currently being hyped for Standard, Modern and Legacy play. Should hit the $3-$4 mark once M14 supply dries up ($3-$4)
Some Commons You Should Probably Pay Attention To
Elvish Mystic – Sold out of the Foil version at $6-$8 within an hour of them going live. Fyndhorn Elves is a $2 Llanowar Elves variant. If Elvish Mystic only sees one printing (M14), it’ll quickly be a $1 card by next year.
Shadowborn Apostle – For the same reason Relentless Rats are popular: people like “You can have any number of this card in your deck” cards, along with the “Cheat a creature out using the Spirit of the Night” mechanic – these should be a solid $0.50 – $1 for the next year, and would be unlikely to return in M15.
I look forward to seeing your comments in the comments section, and I’ll see you next time for the Financial Value of Theros (which will be daily, since it’s not a half-reprint set like M14 was!)
General Manager, StarCityGames.com